Mini 493: Methodical Mafia - Game Over!

[Mr Stoofer]

Vote Count

Nocmen: 1 (Erg0)
Erg0: 1 (Nocmen)

Not voting: Cogito Ergo Sum, distad, VitaminR, Mr. Flay, BrianMcQueso

Four

votes to lynch!

[VitaminR]

I don't particularly like Nocmen's jumpy responses in the last page. I don't think Erg0's reasoning is that good (I think your reasoning around Xdaamno's last vote is a bit suspect, it doesn't really need to mean anything), but he seems to have hit on something there.

At the moment, my top two suspects are CES and Nocmen. I don't think distad, Erg0 or BMQ are scum, but I can still see Mr. Flay as one.

[distad]

Before I respond to Erg0, I'd like some input about something. To what extent would it be good/helpful for me to mention whom I'm investigating prior to nightfall?

[BrianMcQueso]

I'd think that it would be better for you not to tell us. If the Serial Killer gets to choose their kills each night (as "random" would imply), then they have more information to decide whether or not to protect you. I don't know how likely that is, since you're still alive anyway, I'm just saying that's the only circumstance I can think of where it would be relevant that you told us your target. In all honesty, I don't think it matters either way, since an investigation means little without a result.

Of course, if you were scum and lying to us, then it would behoove the town to hear your "target" so you can't change it based on what happens. Just sayin'.

[distad]

It's more than just that. Only my investigative 'target' from yesterday died, and he was killed methodically (not me, nor my 'target' from D1).

And that's part of why I'm leaning toward stating my 'target' today, to help show you that i'm not blowing smoke. It's still WIFOM, but at least it lends a *little* more credibility.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I don't think you lack credibility at this point, distad. And the fact that neither you nor your target was killed is not all that surprising considering you only find (most likely methodical) mafia and cult.

Also, if I'm correct about Flay's theory, he should at this point have heard enough from me. (The specifics of his theory would logically lead to the possibility of me deducing what it is.)

[Erg0]

This game needs more posting.

distad, I think there's much point in you telling us your intended investigation target - it's not really going to prove anything one way or the other.

[Erg0]

EBWOP: I*don't* think there's much point

[Mr. Flay]

Bloody hell, sorry; this game dropped off my radar. Will post by midnight (hopefully by 5pm), but right now I need to get some work done.

[Mr. Flay]

Actually, my theory from earlier in the day is fairly easy to summarize: Xdammno wasn't buying the BMQ wagon from yesterday. He kept saying that over and over again, and there really wasn't any reason for him to suspect that he would die overnight. So in a way, I think Xd's posts can be taken as indicative of who he might have been protecting/distancing from. So my theory was that he was protecting BMQ, but I don't like that idea much anymore, mostly due to reactions today. VitaminR, on the other hand, might have been distancing, since he would be relatively sure the deadline lynch wouldn't go that way, and that single late vote was

weird

.

Nocmen, though. Anyone who perked up at my mention of lynch-or-lose (which is actually fairly unlikely, since it presupposes that both the Lynch today and both Nightkills will miss scum, out of seven chances) might be scum, and Nocmen's been pushing for "vote early, vote often" ever since that post of mine.

[distad]

distad: "worst" is a relative term - Xdaamno talked about you specifically as being scummy a lot (relative to others), and then made a sudden backdown, based on what I see as an iffy reason, when you claimed. I'm only looking at a subset of the evidence here, and I'm not sure if it's really that useful in the end (see below).

Here's a catalogue of mentions of Xdaamno by others in their posts.

BrianMcQueso
222: Doesn't see Xdaamno's day-starting comment as a scumtell, bit of a summary (some of which misses the point, IMO). Points out that distad was also surprised.
412: Puts Xdaamno as "basic townie" in roundup post.

Cogito Ergo Sum
175: Asks Glork to get off Xdaamno and onto BMQ (early day 1 wagons)
177: In response to Glork's comment that he'd lynch CES "a dozen times over" before BMQ: "Now why do you want to lynch me all of a sudden? Or do you mean Xdaamno?" (I don't really see how he could think that Glork was talking to Xdaamno here).
203: Says again he thought Glork was referring to Xdaamno. Says Xdaamno's "burden of proof" comment re: CES not jumping on the Flay wagon is wrong (I never quite got what Xdaamno meant by this).

distad
192: Votes Glork for voting Xdaamno, thinks Xdaamno's surprise was genuine.
233: Raises a D0 post by Xdaamno re: Mafia watchers as a possible reason for Flay's "stop claiming" post.

Mr. Flay
240: More or less confirms distad's theory in 233 that he was responding to Xdaamno D0.

Nocmen
Nothing I can see.

VitaminR (replaced ojpower)
113: Calls Xdaamno's cautious suspicion of LML scummy.
195: Passing mention of Xdaamno in relation to Flay's D0 comment on claims.
248: Lists Xdaamno as "mildly scummy" (with distad & BMQ) in a roundup post.
351: Doesn't like Xdaamno vote on him without reasoning.
357: Accepts Xdaamno's reasoning based on ojpower's posting.

Unfortunately a majority of the talk about Xdaamno on Day 1 was from Glork, Sim and me, and there's nothing particularly dynamite here as far as I can see. I don't really like BMQ's 222, which offers a slightly off-point defence of Xdaamno's early "surprised" post and drags distad into the picture for doing the same thing. VitR kind of vaguely mentions him as scummy without follow-up, but it's pretty circumstantial. distad defends the "surprise" scumtell, but that seems too obvious a link to be significant. All in all it's a bit of a muddle. I'm starting to think that this form of analysis works better when the scum dies Night 2 instead of Night 1 (or at least when the people with the most interactions aren't dead or me). Nocmen and CES barely had any crossover with Xdaamno at all, probably due to the fact that both were missing for sizeable chunks of Day 1.

If I were to vote as I usually would, based solely on these criteria, I'd probably vote for distad right now. I don't think that's a good idea at this point based on his claim, though I'm definitely more sceptical of that than I originally was.

One thing that's sticking in my head is Xdaamno's vote on VitR at the end of the day. I don't like the way he made his only vote at deadline without immediate justification, but then when Nocmen followed Xdaamno asked when he started suspecting VitR. I suspect that he was either trying to discourage others from jumping on the wagon, or cautioning his buddy against an obviously wagony vote. I believe that either Nocmen or VitR is likely to be scum, and I generally like Nocmen less than VitR so far.

Vote: Nocmen

I agree with a Nocmen vote at this point, frankly. I will get into that more in my next post -- this one is for responding. As you saw at the end of D1, I play with a combination of logos and pathos. His surprise fit more on that pathos side. Frankly, it could have been legitimate, in that he was scum not expecting a second, "random" kill. As I said before, I didn't expect to see that, either.

As for my claim, I certainly expect you to be skeptical of it, because I don't know how to prove it--or at least prove it without getting modkilled. Regarding my sanity, at this point, I know that I am not an insane cop, as I got "Not mafia or cult" on the Glork investigation. I could still be a naive cop, though. Hopefully, I will find out for sure tonight.

Well, I guess I have time to add my thoughts on Nocmen on this post...

1) He's very vote-happy today; especially tough after two mislynches.
2) Erg0 mentioned this already, but it warrants mentioning again: Just because two confirmed townies suspected someone does not necessarily mean that the person is scum. I am suspicious of him also, but, again after two mislynches (out of two lynches, total), I would rather be more careful right out of the gate...
3) He came up with 150% worth of reasons for his vote on Erg0. (??)

Mainly, your aggressiveness is offputting and probably not the best plan of attack, when we likely have 3 anti-town roles out of 7 remaining.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Wait, Flay, that was your theory? Why did it make you want to hear from me?

That's totally not the theory I had come up with. I liked my theory. It was kinda awesome.

[Mr. Flay]

If yours is better, can I co-opt it and say it was mine?

I was totally enamoured with mine early in the day, but as time wore on it got thinner and thinner, and barely worth posting. My mad plans often do that...

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Mine was better as in more fun and more awesome. But, uh, it kinda relied on you(although I suppose it doesn't need to, it's just a lot less credible). Also, I'm not sharing it as that would require me to claim. It was more of a setup theory.

[Nocmen]

I always play agressive, but I only vote when I have a very good hunch on someone. I really think Erg0 is one of our scum. And I even provided you with 150% of reasons as distad pointed out (I also do that frequently, usually 3/2 reasons or 5/4)...

[distad]

I always play agressive, but I only vote when I have a very good hunch on someone.

Really?

Because on p21, you voted for Erg0, then for BMQ, then back for Erg0...

[Nocmen]

Because I thought BMQ was stating my town status as confirmed, and I didn't see where he confirmed me. Thus I thought the only way he would definitely know I was town was that he was scum.

[VitaminR]

This whole theory thing is weird. I definitely want to see this explained in the end.

[BrianMcQueso]

Nocmen is not a bandwagon hopperer. He just made a mistake. That being said, he's probably still scum. Either that, or he's not scum. Take your pick. I really don't know what's going on any more.

Something in the back of my mind keeps telling me Flay is a Serial Killer. It was probably something someone said early on, and that I should not have listened to them because they were just making stuff up, but it's bugging me. I'm going to go try to find it.

[Erg0]

I don't like Flay's play today, it looks to me like he maybe had a gambit in mind, but realised as everyone else posted that the town wasn't going to buy it and thus dropped the whole thing. Even if distad proves to be a sane cop, his investigation result doesn't preclude Flay from being an SK.

I'm also generally displeased with the tentativeness being shown today. I actually like Nocmen slightly more for the fact that he has at least put his vote on the person he says he finds most suspicious (he's still scum, though). A number of other people seem more interested in waiting it out and seeing what everyone else wants to do, which I never like.

[distad]

I don't like Flay's play today, it looks to me like he maybe had a gambit in mind, but realised as everyone else posted that the town wasn't going to buy it and thus dropped the whole thing. Even if distad proves to be a sane cop, his investigation result doesn't preclude Flay from being an SK.

QFT

The part that I don't understand is why he needed to hear from CES before he could discuss his plan. From what he divulged about said plan, nothing hinged remotely on CES's participation -- hell, he doesn't even

mention

CES.

Further, I buy the Flay as SK theory. His irritated tone from parts of D0, with his pushing me for claim on D1 and this follow-up to a theory actually make sense. And, as Erg0 pointed out, my finding him as "not mafia or cult" has no bearing on him being a serial killer or not.

I still think Nocmen is scum as well, but I'm not sure which is a better strategic target for us today.

[Nocmen]

Well, if you all think I'm scum, why not lynch me?

[Erg0]

Don't look at me, I'm trying my best. Appeal to emotion noted, btw.

[Mr. Flay]

There's no "gambit" at all to my asking to hear from CES. All I wanted was to hear from one of the few people who didn't participate in the slugfest at the end of Day One, so I'd at least have *something* of his to gauge against my theory about BMQ.

I like participation from all players.

I'll save you the trouble of looking up the "Flay is SK" theory; it comes from Simenon on D1, post 180. Aside from the Cop-claimed investigation (which would presumably give the same result for anyone, since Stoofer ascribes to the don't-lie-to-the-players school of modding and Cop-immunity is a common SK-gift), it still looks like a house of cards to me.

[BrianMcQueso]

I'll save you the trouble of looking up the "Flay is SK" theory; it comes from Simenon on D1, post 180.

Yep, that was it. Since it was Simenon, I don't have to worry about it any more. You can return to being innocent.

Well, if you all think I'm scum, why not lynch me?

Just because you're a fool doesn't mean you're scum.