Newbie 1675: Resolution Mafia - GAME OVER!

[Drixx]

Just because we're in a nearly impossible to lose position doesn't mean we should slack. Reasons for reads should be included please PC. Just throwing out reads doesn't give us any idea of your thinking, and we need to see how everyone is thinking just now.

[Christopher]

I've been thinking a bit.

First, I'm still miffed that KAAG outted his n2 target.

Second, I want to thank AI for his day 1 contributions. I hope he's following along now. Now that we know he's confirmed town, his wild reads provide ammunition for our day 2-X game play. I look forward to thanking you properly after the game's over, AI!




@Phantom

I read Phantom as slight town. If Phantom thought I was a 1-hit BP despite my claim, then Phantom would likely have tested me and lynched KAAG. That would have been a great opportunity to kill KAAG and counter-claim my PR role. I kind of trust Phantom's snap day 2 posts (491) that he

honestly

sort of read me as maybe 1-hit BP.




@Drixx

I said before that either KAAG or Drixx is maf, but not both. However, I also said that I could be wrong and I trust that whomever is the non-maf will help to out the other if, indeed, the other is scum.

I understand that KAAG suspects Drixx is scum, and Drixx has been upfront that the night kills point directly to him, but I don't see it.

KAAG, help on Drixx?




@Accountant

I am null on Accountant. Sorry. I just don't see it.




@Radical Rat

After ISOing his posts, I really don't like Radical Rat's contributions.

RR's voting was all over the place on day 1. 2x on Accountant, 1x on me, 2x on Nictherat.

He has tunneled Accountant day 2.

He was the person who suggested allowing Pignash to live, despite him being confirmed scum. This is scummy as hell.

He posted minutes after Pignash self-voted on day 1 twilight. Might this be coaching or a slip from maf PT? (thank AI)

He was the first to point out (#494) that it was a mistake to name-drop Drixx because it spoils the "frame Drixx" narrative. Might he be trying to frame Drixx?

My read list:

Christopher, KAAG (super town)
Phantom
Accountant (null)
Drixx
Radical Rat (scum)

VOTE: Radical Rat

[Christopher]

VOTE: Accountant

People who will Not or cannot respond to direct posts are more likely busy than lurking. Lynching someone who is not there to defend themselves should never be done, except as a last resort hammer with no time left.

We had over a day on the clock, and an impending extension. There was no reason to hammer Nic yet, and because we did we're lacking any current thoughts or reads from him.


Why am I not voting for KAAG then? Because you sat there begging for someone to hammer before he picked it up with a 24-hour warning. I disagree with his hammer, but you were actively pushing for it.

I also don't like this insta-day 2 post. Radical Rat snap voted Accountant before KAAG and I outted.

I guess that answers that question.

And there's that premature day ending I didn't want.


Good luck KAAG and Chris. The fate of the Town depends on you.

Really can't get past Radical Rat's use of "the Town" instead of "our fate". Slip?

[Accountant]

People who will Not or cannot respond to direct posts are more likely busy than lurking. Lynching someone who is not there to defend themselves should never be done, except as a last resort hammer with no time left.

Or scum stalling the game in the hope town moves elsewhere, or scum frantically trying to coordinate a defense in daychat, or scum stalling the game to drag the day on and grind people's patience down, or newbie scum waiting for someone to make a white knight post of him so he can piggyback off those points...

Do you have any response to Radical Rat's FOS/tunnel of you, Accountant?

It's dumb, but my gut read is "overzealous townie" not "mafia pushing a mislynch".

Also, Accountant, how do you read Drixx, Radical Rat, and Phantom?

They're my scum pool.

[Radical Rat]

Alright Chris, I'll play your game.

My Day 1 votes and suspicions were both all over the place, and they needed to be. I replaced in after the RVS, with a whole two posts from my predecessor. I needed to make up for lost time, so I hopped around wagons and pressured several folks. Also worth noting my final vote on Nic was not out of a desire to lynch but a desire to draw forth a defense or reads or really anything we could work with. The hammer happened before I had a chance though.

Yes, I tunneled Accountant Day 2. Which lasted what, one and a half pages? I didn't exactly have the time or content to look at anyone else.

As for wanting Pignash alive, the reason was specifically to avoid this. We're sitting in MYLO with a LOT of WIFOM and not much actual progress. If we left Pignash, we'd have him as a back-up lynch if we failed to decide or would otherwise choose a no-lynch.
This is what I consider optimal play after finding a PROVEN scum. I may be very wrong, but it's something I've always wanted to try, ever since my Salem days.

If my post after Pignash's hammer was very clearly directed at the rest of the Town, even giving a direct address to both you and KAAG.... How does that make ANY sense to be coaching?

My "insta-Day 2" post is scummy? I'm not allowed to post before you now? Please think these things through before you post them.

The fate of the Town just sounds better. I don't really know what else to tell ya.

[Accountant]

Forgot to add this last night.

Scum ranking:

(Mod confirmed town) Accountant
(Nigh-confirmed town) Christopher, KAAG
(Null) Radical Rat
(Light scum lean) PhantomCobalt
(Moderate scum lean) Drixx

Nobody stands out to me as a hugely scummy player so far. Optimal lynch is probably Drixx, but I'd be fine with a PC lynch. Gonna park my vote:

VOTE: Drixx

[Accountant]

We're sitting in MYLO with a LOT of WIFOM and not much actual progress.

We are not in MyLo. We have 1 free mislynch and 1 free no lynch.

This is what I consider optimal play after finding a PROVEN scum. I may be very wrong

You are.

ever since my Salem days.

This explains a lot - the Salem playstyle and meta is noticeably different from ours, which may explain your questionable choices.

[fferyllt]

Vote Count 2.2

Radical Rat

(1): Christopher

Drixx

(1): Accountant

Not Voting

(4): Radical Rat, PhantomCobalt, KickAssAndGiggle, Drixx

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.


Deadline: February 8, Noon US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2016-02-08 09:00:00)

Mod Notes:

-

[Radical Rat]

We're sitting in MYLO with a LOT of WIFOM and not much actual progress.

We are not in MyLo. We have 1 free mislynch and 1 free no lynch.

This is what I consider optimal play after finding a PROVEN scum. I may be very wrong

You are.

ever since my Salem days.

This explains a lot - the Salem playstyle and meta is noticeably different from ours, which may explain your questionable choices.

Oh! We certainly are not in MYLO. Drixx said we were, and I forgot to factor in the dead mafia when I checked. Thanks for pointing that out.

And yeah. Unlearning Salem habits has been a major part of my Forum Mafia learning curve. As for leaving Pignash alive... As far as I'm aware, there's no precedent for it. Until I can get a Town to try it, we won't know how well it works or doesn't work. But that discussion can wait for the post-game.


VOTE: Drixx
The MyLo comment could have been an honest mistake. Or it could have been a last-ditch attempt to save yourself with a No Lynch.

Either way, as long as we can afford the lynch, I'm okay with your death.

L-2 Reached

[Drixx]

I didn't say we were in MYLO. You should re-read ... unless you intentionally said that so someone would correct you so you could misrepresent me. In that case I guess you're playing to your win con. Hopefully people will go look for themselves and this can be a perfect win instead of me getting mislynched before they catch on to you.

[Drixx]

KaaG: this is really simple. You were just wrong about me. I totally get the reasons you decided it was me; however, you need only look at my topics and posts and you'll see what I was doing at the time you assumed I was up to no good. By dropping my name, you put a bunch of unnecessary WiFoM into the game. I didn't exactly try to hide from the fact that the night one kill pointed at me; it's the first thing I said yesterday, and I was super irritated by refreshing to see the self vote and twilight had already passed, as I would have said some of what I said last night (real time) in twilight.

In any case, the situation is still what it is. The last scum has to get at least one night kill off without getting caught, and pair that with two mislynches. We know for sure that KaaG and Christopher are town because no counter claims. Now that Christopher showed up, we know that KaaG gets minimum one more night tracking where he can give results. This is crucial because if he tracks me again (or someone else) and does NOT have a guilty,

we still go into

tomorrow

(MYLO, presumably)

with two confirmed town as a worst case (KaaG and an innocent track target) or with the game solved as a best case (KaaG tracks the killer). Christopher being doctor and not 1-shot BP ensures that position.

@Accountant - RE #490 - Of course from my perspective it's a setup. The scum have a tracker + Doctor combo to deal with and they have to get mislynches. I'm an IC still alive in the mid game (which already counts against me as far as site meta goes), and our town tracker made it clear he suspected me. The no kill, if it was by choice, sets me up to be mislynched today. The last scum is in the pool of {Accountant, Radical Rat, Phantom Cobalt} and the expectation would be that scum would have to kill Christopher tonight (there's a reason I asked about Happily Ever After). If KaaG doesn't catch them in the act, then tomorrow it's KaaG plus a confirmed innocent and two question marks. If we aren't sure, that's why MYLO is the one time a no lynch is acceptable: force the hand of the scum to kill and put it into 3-man LYLO. That kill would presumably be against KaaG and would leave me and two of the people in the scum pool. One of us would be cleared as town by KaaG.

That's the worst possible case. We'll have to go out of our way and try really hard to make this game a loss at this point.

@KaaG - Re-assess your priors please. Don't death tunnel on me and (I assume) your secondary scum read Accountant. Your thoughts on how to proceed are going to steer the ship. I've done my best to lay out the situation logically.

Emphasis added to make it super clear. There's no world in which that reads as me saying today is MYLO.

VOTE: Radical Rat

[Accountant]

Looks like today's lynch is either Drixx or Rat. I'd rather a Drixx lynch, but I'm also okay with Rat since we have a free ML.

[Radical Rat]

This should go without saying, but going to say it anyway:

Today we have an even number of people alive due to the no kill. If we mislynch today and there is a kill tonight, that will make tomorrow MYLO (Mislynch and Lose). That is the one time where it potentially makes sense to vote a no lynch in a newbie game. The burden is then on the scum to kill and put it into LYLO (Lynch {correctly} or Lose). There's nothing to be gained by hurrying today. No matter how you slice it, the remaining scum needs to get two mislynches and at least one night kill done without getting caught.

There is therefore no reason to hurry.

I misread this post. Noticed when I went back to quote it, must have skimmed over the "that would make tomorrow"


My sincerest apologies. UNVOTE:

[Drixx]

That actually reads really genuine to me RR. You know what reads as scummy? Accountant being all about you or me being lynched today.

Unvote

FOS: Accountant

@KaaG - It appears to me that you couldn't decide yesterday who you thought was Pig's partner, and that you only ruled Accountant out because of looking at the profile page. What do you think now that I pointed out why that was not a good way to clear someone? What do you think of Accountant being on during the day phase but avoiding posting? At this point you are guaranteed to be alive one more night and either confirm someone as town or catch the last scum, so you don't need to play coy anymore (and you probably shouldn't;

EXCEPT

when it comes to who you plan to track tonight if today's lynch doesn't win us the game. That you should not say or hint or anything).

My biggest fear is that I will end up in a 3 person LYLO either as the cleared person or with a cleared person and me being the easy mislynch bait. The more you and Christopher interact with the possible scum pool and give your thoughts, the more you move the needle from "Town almost certainly wins" towards "Town guaranteed wins".

[Accountant]

Drixx if you think I'm scummy why did you FoS instead of voting me?

[Accountant]

What do you think of Accountant being on during the day phase but avoiding posting?

Actually I missed the day phase completely.

[Christopher]

@Accountant

Why do you not FOS Radical Rat, who's clearly tunneling you? Are you that confident that he is not scum?

In fact, why do you say you'd prefer to lynch Drixx over RR today (#511). How does that square with your contradictory null (#505) and slight scum (#503) read on RR?



@PhantomCobalt

Again, can we please get your participation? We wagoned Pignash, in large measure, because he couldn't/wouldn't assist us with town reads. Don't let my previous post where I said that you're town allow you to coast to day 3. Non-participation is scummy.

[PhantomCobalt]

Drixx/Accountant is my scum pool

[PhantomCobalt]

Oh wait, are my nostrils deceiving me

A TASTY ACCOUNTANT WAGON IS IN OUR MIDSTVOTE: Accountant

[Radical Rat]

Chris, I'm not even tunneling Accountant. I find them suspicious, yes. I also find Drixx suspicious. My vote is currently on neither of them because I'm still trying to sort through the best course of action. Speaking of which...

I may be wrong here, but I think we've won?

Players Alive
Radical Rat
KaaG
Christopher
Drixx
Accountant
PhantomCobalt

2/6 are confirmed town.
If we mislynch today, 2/5 are confirmed.
After the kill, 2/4.
At this point, KaaG will reveal the tracking results, either confirming one more Town, exposing Scum out of PoE, or directly revealing the final Mafia.

I don't really see how this can go wrong unless the kill target gets tracked.

[Christopher]

@Radical Rat

Assuming that we mislynch today, and I die tonight, then KAAG has a 1/3 chance of targeting my killer.

This day is to ideally lynch scum, or give KAAG enough ammo that he hopefully targets scum during the night.

Let us now get over-confident. We have not won anything yet.

[Christopher]

*not get over-confident.

[Drixx]

Well put Christopher. That's what I was explaining in my post earlier. Our worst case scenario is mislynch today, you die tonight and KaaG tracks me or the other person in the suspect pool who is town and can only confirm a townie instead of handing us scum. That makes it worst case KaaG plus someone he clears alive tomorrow with two in the suspect pool. A mislynch ends the game, so the best play in that situation is to no lynch and force scum to kill. KaaG would be the one killed, leaving his cleared town left to try and decide between the two suspects.

Solving it today would be a whole heck of a lot better than that worst case. That's why I asked both you and KaaG to actively get involved. Grill those of us who aren't in the confirmed block. Work the problem and find the scum and win today, and none of that worst case scenario stuff is anything to even worry about at all.

As for me using FoS on Accountant; I wanted to see how Accountant would respond. Accountant responded by trying to make me look scummy. It's not perfectly alignment indicative, but from my POV, Accountant doesn't seem to care who dies today, as long as it isn't Accountant.

[Drixx]

What do you think of Accountant being on during the day phase but avoiding posting?

Actually I missed the day phase completely.

This is outright not true (a.k.a. you are lying). According to your user profile, which I checked after I saw KaaG had used it to decide to track me, you were on site during the time the day phase was going on. It seems a stretch for you to tell us that you somehow just didn't look at this game when you were on the site just three or so hours before Pignash self hammered. Quite frankly, you've now moved to the top of my list, and that's an achievement since the same refresh that showed me this post by you also has a post by Radical Rat trying to lull us into a false sense of security by suggesting the game is won no matter what.

You get more than an FOS this time:

VOTE: Accountant

[Radical Rat]

I wasn't trying to lull anyone into anything. I just thought it was over, and was going to suggest we get the lynch over with after it was confirmed and agreed.

Since I was evidently wrong, it's a moot point though.
I think Accountant's at L-1 with your vote, Drixx?

Intent to hammer, barring any new developments.