Blitz 21 - Hope plus One ―kibou― [End]

[pieguyn]

votecount 2.3

Titus (3) - Wisdom, Ankamius, Antihero
Spiffeh (3) - Expedience, Mad King Ashnard, Titus

Wisdom (1) - Scatterplot
Scatterplot (1) - hiplop
Ankamius (1) - Ranger
Mad King Ashnard (1) - Spiffeh

Not voting (2) - PhantomCobalt, Gorkington

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Deadline is January 29, 17:40 GMT-7 or in (expired on 2016-01-29 17:40:00).

[Ankamius]

oh I missed a pagetop

oops

[Ankamius]

mb friends

I'll try harder next time

[Titus]

Can you do Wisdom next Ranger?

[Ankamius]

Titus can you obvtown so I can hate myself forever please

[hiplop]

do me do me!!!

[Titus]

*attempts to obvtown*

Error: File does not exist. Like no on ever calls me obvtown.

What do you think of spiffeh gork and wisdom?

[Ranger]

Can you do Wisdom next Ranger?

Alphabetically, so no. He's last.
Shouldn't matter, though. It's all coming tonight.

[Ranger]

For

Gorkington

, I'm 95% certain talah's replace-out was a town replace-out. OceanWind's replace-out was also one that looked town, in contrast to KT's which looked like scum. If it helps: in hindsight, this looks a lot like the talah from Blitz 2, where he was town and widely suspected. Many of the points where he was frustrated read as genuine too, like he is town, doesn't know who is town or scum, but still thinks most of the BS headed his way is from town.

OceanWind also indicated Firebringer suspicion in 804. The confidence in Scatterplot being scum and the way he went about presenting it does not match my experience with OceanWind when he was scum (Blitz 2), but

does

fit my experience with him as town (Blitz 14). Maybe that's just me, but it's enough that while he didn't do much to increase towncred, he didn't blow it all, either.

865, while the same lines of Antihero, is still a Firebringer push, too. It becomes a vote in 885, when OceanWind gives up on pushing Scatterplot. This is a particularly town vote, because the Firebringer wagon at the time was:

Firebringer (5) - Ranger, PhantomCobalt, Trebuchet MS, Expedience, Antihero

...Minus me, as I unvoted and switched to the growing Expedience wagon. OceanWind

tried to get me back onto Firebringer

. This vote stayed, and was critical in securing the lynch. It was not a bus vote; it was what reignited the spark in the Firebringer wagon.

Gorkington has done nothing to lose the town credit of his predecessors, thus, remains town. There may not be anything

strongly

saying Gorkington is town from his own posting, but there's absolutely no hint of a scum agenda in what he's saying. He's not acting like scum; he's being active, scumhunting, and generally not afraid to take the spotlight, so the townread holds firm.

[Ranger]

For why

hiplop

is town, it's simply because everything he did early-on resonated with me. He was clearly comfortable and confident in himself. While much of what he said I no longer think is true (sakura/Gorkington scumreads) and he sadly hasn't let go of them, he saw the same suspicious signs as Antihero and I did. 522/528 are some of the reasons Ankamius is scum for instance, but he also made hard stances like defending Trebuchet, defending PhantomCobalt, and similar gems. His emotional outburst in 583 did not read as scum, either. There's similar reactions elsewhere, but on the opposite side, I find it hard to see posts like 701 and the following as scum. I don't think hiplop was right about talah being scum. But hiplop's posting is ridiculously sincere, so I'm firm he

did

.

I understand the reasons for being paranoid: he never pushed Firebringer, even defended him a little bit, so we have no currently-flipped-scum that will prove hiplop town. (An Ankamius scumlynch would help, though!) However, it would be exactly that: paranoia off of some arbitrary criteria. His D2 posting has continued to be fairly strong, and I simply don't think he posts as he has if scum.

[Ranger]

BTW, quick preview ahead:

Spoiler: KT quotes

VOTE: Phantom his activeness doesn't fit his town meta

Post 1 for why Phantom is town.

VOTE: Antihero That isn't very nice.

Awww you got me. I want people to be nice and will kill people who aren't <3

Posts 1 and 2 for why Antihero is town.

UNVOTE: anti
VOTE: Phantom From what I'm use to as town he pops in and out, I'm not use to him being this active and I don't think its town for him.

Post 2 for why Phantom is town.

So I'm currently reading Mad king vs Scatterplot as a TvT. They both seem like town to me but what I don't understand is why they are fighting each other this early in the game over something that happened last game. I understand that Plot did something but this is a new game witch brings new possibilities. So I think instead of us fighting we do something useful and try to read some other people ok?

This is scum trying to play the diplomat (and is one of the main reasons I never relented in my KT/Firebringer scumread), and is post 1 for why Mad King Ashnard and Scatterplot would be town, because scum don't talk from the sidelines like this with a scumbuddy involved.

Okay Mad king's chainsaw defense has convinced me that scatterplot is scum VOTE: Scatterplot

People seem to forget this vote happened, but it is Post 2 for why Scatterplot is town.

I droped my vote on phantom because I think plot is a bigger threat as scum.

If you switch this around to be "I think Plot is a bigger threat when town", then it makes more sense. So, post 3 for why Scatterplot is town.

But that would be classified as scumish behavior because your not giving the person your attacking any room when there should be room

This, and the preceding,

could have

, theoretically, been a scumbuddy complaining about being bussed, but the tone reads more like scum frustrated they're being scumread by town and don't know why. So, post 1 for why Wisdom is town.

Thats how this game should work *sigh* you know what I'm working on my catchup see you when I'm done

Post 4 for why Scatterplot is town.

So, there's some fairly good reasoning why Scatterplot is not my main suspect, some minor evidence on Wisdom and Mad King Ashnard are both town, some decent evidence for why Antihero isn't scum, and some good reasoning for why PhantomCobalt isn't scum.

[Ranger]

Preview #2:

Spoiler: Firebringer quotes

I don't scumhunt.
Oceanwind is scummy though.

Hey, hiplop? Spiffeh? Remember what I said about Katsuki on D4 of Mafiaception? Guess what this reminds me of! (Post 1 for why OceanWind is town.)

*remembers another game Pieguyn hosted with Sakura in it where she bussed both her allies*

Early throwing of shade on Sakura Hana = post 1 for why Sakura Hana is town.

You said you never bus, and I gave you a instance of you doing a buss.
You can go back to saying "I rarely buss" but you can't say "I never buss" cause I just proved you wrong.

Its easier to tear down an argument when you make an absolute statement such as "I never do X" which I just did.

Way to get highly defensive though.
It feels like you can't even read your own posts!

Post 2 why Sakura is town.

I nowhere stated you like to do busses.
I was saying that you have done at least once before that I know off.

Why are you continuously inserting words into my mouth?

Post 3 Sakura town.

Trebuchet is scum pushing Wisdom!
VOTE: Trebuchet MS

This is scum on the sidelines encouraging TvT. So, post 1 of Firebringer's for Trebuchet/Spiffeh and Wisdom.

How are you town?

Post 2, Trebuchet/Spiffeh.

If it isn't Oceanwind....I don't care for you >.>

Post 2 Ocean town.

You tunnel all the time mate.
Hypocritical if you ask me.

Post 4 Sakura.

In short: strong reasons for why Sakura and Trebuchet/Spiffeh are town, with some extras on OceanWind/Gorkington, Wisdom, and Antihero.

[Ranger]

The reason why I don't think

Mad King Ashnard

is scum basically amounts to the way RC treated Firebringer. While consistently treating the slot town, RC was growing increasingly infuriated with them, and when voting Firebringer, there was no attempt at a justification. No, "I was wrong about Firebringer, he's scum". No sudden hop on with no reasoning at all. His reasoning is just about as far away from getting town credit as reasoning can get: "I'm pretty sure Firebringer's flipping town, but I'm going to lynch him anyway". This is not something scum says knowing their scumbuddy is getting lynched. It is, however, exactly in-character with what I've observed of Radiant over multiple town games. He has held similar attitudes in many, many games, such as here with the Wednesday lynch. He has been pursuing his reads strongly and stubbornly, but while I find this can be annoying (I just want him to trust my reads are right and that he's fighting town!), it's perfectly clear he legitimately believes what he is saying.

The willingness to be checked by the cop, and not said out of obligation, also helps. He recognized that with a Firebringer scum flip, a cop investigation on him may be best, and he said this with no prompting; it was

his

idea. And this is an open setup: no godfathers here. Just goons, so he couldn't be baiting an investigation. An investigation on him, which he was willing to have, would devastate the already-in-bad-position scumteam. Furthermore, his stance that scum bussed Firebringer, when he himself was in optimal bussing position, is something I don't see him advocating as scum.

All-in-all, this is a read which requires some trust in me, I admit, but Mad King Ashnard is almost certainly town.

[Ranger]

I think KT is scum.

He has mentioned my town meta 5 times, in d1. Why? You really can't be wrong about meta. You can say "on my home-site Phantom is never this active as town", and that statement can be perfectly valid. I can't change my past games in any way, and he can say shit like that about him. KT is playing it safe so he isn't attacked and shown the spotlight.

And while we're on the topic of avoiding the spotlight, why not add in the fact that KT just joined the now largest wagon?

VOTE: KT

This post, and this post alone, should be enough to tell you PhantomCobalt is not a Firebringer scumbuddy. It stands alone by itself, aside from pushes on Ankamius and also how KTthecreeper pushed him. PhantomCobalt made an excellent,

excellent

point against KT, and continued it in 486 and 563. While he hasn't posted much, I speak from experience: this is how PhantomCobalt usually plays, and the content he is providing is him in top-shape town form.

[hiplop]

am I just being a tunneling idiot?

[hiplop]

goddammit i think I am :/

gonna have to reevaluate some things...

[Ranger]

You know what, I don't really have the motivation to show why

Sakura Hana

is town. Sakura just is. I suppose I can point you to 775, where a talah/KT/Ankamius scumteam was proposed (not bad), 816, the very town nature of Sakura's replace out...if you don't see it, then I'm sorry. Sakura's just town, so...leave it at that.

[Ranger]

Oh.
Forgot this about Firebringer.

talah/OceanWind/Gorkington
Scatterplot
Antihero
Wisdom
Trebuchet MS/Spiffeh
Sakura Hana
Mad King Ashnard
hiplop
Ranger

This is the players Firebringer mentioned in his iso.
Who do you notice as absent?

Ankamius and Expedience are never

once

mentioned by Firebringer, yet all other players are.

[Ranger]

Alright, so this is harder than I thought it would be.

Trebuchet MS/Spiffeh

is one of my strongest townreads, but explaining

why

they're such a strong townread is hard to do. Pretty much one of the only things they've said favorable is this,

VOTE: Sakura Hana
I'm townreading almost everyone except Ranger (out of necessity), MKA, KT, and her.

...Though they also were the first to call KT's replace-out scum in their 566. Even voting him in 567. I also do not think a scumbuddy says 604 about their scum partner, especially given how many players in the game considered the accusation mean-spirited. 619 furthers that. If you're scum, and you've been on the fence about your scumbuddy, you don't go, "that's a scum replace out" and commit to the scumread. You go, "Hmm, well, we weren't sure about the slot before, so let's give the replacement a chance!" They didn't. You also get things like 998, which no matter how tongue-in-cheek you read it as is still clearly a serious push on the slot. 1037 also pushes Firebringer as scum, too.

Even at a time when others (read: Wisdom, Scatterplot) were backing down from Firebringer, in 1092, they continued pushing him. 1104 too. You also get things like, post-lynch, 1180, where they are clearly feeling vindicated about what happened: correctly calling the KT scum replace as what it was, and being frustrated that others didn't get it.

They do doubt their reads at times, sure, but so do all town players, and their reads are very organic. I hope this is sufficient, but needless to say: don't touch Spiffeh. He is town.

[Scatterplot]

The game I ICed is over and I can talk about both Phantom and Rask now.

I started my IC confessional before I got my role PM and I tried to find a tactful way of saying that I hoped to draw scum so I could just policy lynch both my SEs without having to try to read them. Phantom's half of that was that I was following an ongoing newbie game of his (since completed), in which he fakeclaimed cop at L-1 as a VT and got himself lynched for his trouble. I knew that Phantom was going to do scummy stuff and that there wasn't a really a limit to how much antitown stuff he could do while still being town, so I was hoping to be scum so I could just not care.

And then Phantom surprised me, in a good way. Yes he was active and doing scummy shit and drawing everyone's suspicions like a lightning rod, but he was getting reactions and freely tossing out reads that made sense to me based on how everybody was reacting to him. He pushed a newer player very hard trying to reaction test him, and we both initially misinterpreted the newer player's reaction but when I pushed the new player they towntold strongly enough that they went on to be my top townread. I was actually really impressed with his play there.

Yes, his playstyle looks scummy, but he's not an idiot. There's some sort of method to his madness.

I was able to give him a bit of a safety net in that game because I was the IC...but then towards the end of day 1 we were going in circles and I did end up mislynching Phantom after all. I don't remember why but I felt really bad about it.


I was hoping that this game he would do something similar, that I could give him a bit of a safety net to do his crazy scumhunting thing with where he runs in circles around the thread looking scummy/sloppy but still doing shit to get reads and doing stuff that lets other people get reads, and that this time I wouldn't let him down. But this game had a lot faster pace than that one and people have been tunnelling me off and on for what I was trying to do with Phantom so I wasn't actually able to give him the safety net I tried to give him in the newbie game and maybe there was just too much noise for him to do his thing. I was hoping he'd take the townread I gave him and run with it but he mostly didn't and I have been underwhelmed with the amount of scumhunting he's done this game in comparison with the newbie game but he did find scum in KT and latched onto that. So, the results are mixed.



Raskolinov was obvtown in the newbie game. From page 1 he had reads and he was scumhunting and was demonstrating transparent thought process and he was paranoid of me because I was the IC and he was asking questions and looking for motivations and really trying to understand where everybody was coming from and his thought processes made sense and yeah I did get a little paranoid of him towards the end of day 1 because I thought he was rolefishing and also because of tictac's push on him which was so nuanced that I wanted to consider it seriously but when I did go back through his ISO he really did just seem town. I've started to see little signs of that Rask in his recent posting in this game but he hasn't been posting enough for me to get a good read on him. (Fortunately I have other reasons for thinking the RC head is town but I still would like to interact with Rask and see the Rask from the newbie game that I ICed.)

--P

[Ranger]

Wisdom

produced one of the first points against KTthecreeper in 142, where he called KT out on hypocrisy. In 157, KT may have only been the third scumread, but this shows that even early-on, Wisdom wanted KT dead. The read would quickly grow: 372 it becomes more definite, and in 466 singles out KT as being scum as well. 471 is a candidate for best post in the game, honestly, for how early it was and how much I'm pretty sure it was accurate, too. I mean, I'm pretty much sheeping the Wisdom of then with my reads now, even after Wisdom himself has lost sight of them, but it was good then and it's good now. He follows it with a vote in 479. 496 continues it, too, after having said Phantom could be wrong. As much as I want to use his pushes of Ankamius now, technically Ankamius hasn't flipped scum

yet

, so for the time being, I'll just point instead to 555, further pushing KT. 558 is not how you talk to a scumbuddy, either.

There's also how he goes against momentum: Sakura Hana was his first big push. When the wagon began to form, he abandoned it. talah was a major early push of his. Yet he was one of the first to take the firm, hard stance that talah was town. While this one was a mistake, he even backed out of his push on Firebringer: this shows he is not scum going for the town credit, because if he were scum going for the town credit, he'd have backed out of the town pushes but

not

the scum push. That he backed out of the scum push shows that Wisdom doesn't know for sure who is town and who is scum. He's a town player, making guesses, and pursuing what he sees in the moment.

723/740 are other examples of him calling Firebringer scum, which was his vote for the majority of D1 if you recall: one of the hardest, earliest pushers of the slot as scum. He ended up doubting himself, and then being unsure of what to do. If you say you have not had this happen to you: either you don't have enough games under your belt, or you are a liar. When he wasn't sure what to do, he did what is the most natural thing for a town player to do when they have lost sight of the scum: start from where they began.

Heck, I do that all the time! It's my de facto strategy in fact. So when Wisdom pursued Sakura Hana, he was not looking for a Firebringer counterwagon. He was not being opportunistic. He was trying to refocus himself and figure the game out after having imploded his reads.

This is why he's one of my strongest townreads.
I liked it better when he was actually right (his reads were better than mine at the time!), but he's still town even if he's wrong.

[Ranger]

I'm getting tired, but I've done half my job.
I've shown why all of you, save Ankamius and Expedience (side order of Scatterplot who is probably town but not certainly town), are town.
I can do why they are scum tomorrow if you're still being big enough idiots to not sheep me on my Ankamius scumread.

[Ranger]

Short version on Expedience, though: bad entrance in 162, weird fence-sit in 165, voting someone he's treating as town in 167, fake tone in 390 (unless "ooh, look at all this TvT fighting going on! This is almost too easy" is what he meant, in which case...then it was sincere), encouraging TvT fighting in 396 from the sidelines by fence-sitting, 735 is a classical bus-vote, an utter lack of posting (low post count), and minimal analysis whenever posting.

[Wisdom]

Sakura just is.

Ranger, please, let go of this. You're wrong.

[Wisdom]

Expedience: I have a thing for newbies who dislike my playstyle and think I am scum based on it. Raskolinov's reasoning was exactly that, whining about how I play. Everytime I've seen that happening before it was healthy town paranoia.

Now, that's not enough to make me shake the scumread on their slot, as RC is still the most likely buddy to FB and Sakura. But it made me slightly less certain.