Newbie 1675: Resolution Mafia - GAME OVER!

[PhantomCobalt]

GG!

[KickAssAndGiggle]

Well played all.

I want to give big kudos to pignash and Drixx, who frankly had me doubting myself over and over again (I may not have posted like it but you can be sure: I was wavering at times). I have to especially say to Drixx: you managed to get three people to vote for Accountant on D3 for a while with your "It's a frame up" argument. One could almost call that a miracle!!! I really hope we play on the same team next time: I think the way you fought for your win condition when it was getting bleak was superb.

Your job was made soooo hard by Lowell: his 2nd post was suspicious, but by itself, not a "tell". But then, having posted it, he asked to be replaced. Now, this is not, again, a firm "tell", but it meant my suspicion on the pignash slot was "unshakeable". I knew I was tracking that slot N1 before pignash even replaced in.

I think we (town) were lucky(ish) on D1: now we know Drixx was scum, it must have been a toss-up for their team between AI and myself as to who was the PR. Unfortunately for you chaps, you flipped tails.

My assessment of my own play:

If I had NOT announced I was tracking Drixx, he might have killed Christopher. Of course, if I HAD tracked him unannounced, we would have caught him had he done so. I felt that Christopher would be most amenable to voting with me, so I made the call. Looking back, it's probably a push: one method was no better than the other. But I think next time I'll choose the more "conventional" style.

I am very pleased though, that my first read list was spot on. My only regret is joining the Nictherat wagon on D1: I should have held out. But the day was dragging and it was hard to get consensus.

Thanks for hosting fferyllt, and to Drixx (again) for his IC role.

[KickAssAndGiggle]

I just read the scum chat. Just to be clear pignash, I genuinely was not trying to insult you when I suggested you would have discussed the self-hammer: I assumed you'd do so as a courtesy. Of course, the assumption could have been wrong (you posted but I think you hammered before you saw Drixx's reply...so it seemingly was), but it was a "balance of probabilities" decision for me to bring it up. Definitely no offense was intended.

[Radical Rat]

Well, how about that!

Now that it won't clog up the chat, I can see where I went wrong keeping Pignash alive. Though if I'm ever in a game with a cop, JK, RBer, etc... I'm gonna try that again.

I still dislike Accountant's playstyle, but I guess that's just that: playstyle. And I shouldn't have let that influence my reads so much.

And shout out to fferyt for hosting this wonderful game!

[AlwaysInnocent]

Drixx, I wonder, why didn't you kill someone else, like KAAG, instead of me? You could have easily framed me. I was doing terrible as town. Besides, I was townreading you, so you could have gotten away with it without me realizing you were scum.

[AlwaysInnocent]

Still can't believe town-Nictherat said: "Anything else I should have said or picked up on?"

I was so convinced he copied that. It made absolutely no sense as town. And yet, he was.

[Drixx]

Yeah ... those are the things scum use to get innocent people killed. I was seriously concerned with the slip by my partner and replace out. I went pretty heavy on the "no way an experienced player does that" playbook because it kind of felt like a hail mary right from the start this game. Once day two came around and I realized it was a tracker with a doctor (for a moment I mistook which setups were possible and thought he was actually BP and I could kill KaaG then go after Christopher for claiming doc and KaaG dying ... you can see in the mafia chat), it was basically over.

I actually thought KaaG's vote was the hammer on me. I wouldn't have posted what I did if I had realized it wasn't the hammer. That was supposed to up the drama for what I thought was going to be a game over at any moment kind of situation. Sorry about that.

Well played all.

As a note for the future KaaG: I've seen town do exactly what I did this game. I've seen it a lot. You won't always be seeing a scum slip and a scum partner doing his best to save it when you see something like that. Learn to discern when it's real from when it's a TvT mess, and you'll be one of the best on the site. Well done.

[KickAssAndGiggle]

Learn to discern when it's real from when it's a TvT mess, and you'll be one of the best on the site. Well done.

Thank you. Although with players such as AlwaysInnocent about, I doubt I'll ever be one of the best: I literally had no clue whether he was town or scum, until his death flavor.

Interestingly, considering I've played 12 - 15 games of Mafia stretching back to 2002/2003, I've only ever been scum once, and that was years ago. I suspect I will not be so good there: I'm a terrible liar!

[Drixx]

Learn to discern when it's real from when it's a TvT mess, and you'll be one of the best on the site. Well done.

Thank you. Although with players such as AlwaysInnocent about, I doubt I'll ever be one of the best: I literally had no clue whether he was town or scum, until his death flavor.

Interestingly, considering I've played 12 - 15 games of Mafia stretching back to 2002/2003, I've only ever been scum once, and that was years ago. I suspect I will not be so good there: I'm a terrible liar!

Playing scum requires all the tools to play good as town, but with a ruthless efficiency in application. Everything I posted in this game was reasonable, which is why it took you so long to decide to go with the lynch on me, even though you

knew

that the game wasn't even at stake. Imagine how much more pressure you would have felt if today had been LYLO.

[Drixx]

I hope you stay and play regularly here KaaG. Would be nice to see you in some of the large theme games (I tend to play in the newbie queue and in the large theme queue).

[KickAssAndGiggle]

Yeah, I'll be staying for some more games, for sure. Like I said on page 1, I found myself enjoying the Mafia games on other forums more than using the forum for its "primary" purpose, so it makes sense to play where people take it more seriously.

Hopefully we can hunt some scum together next time...or plot the town's downfall. Muahahaha.

[Christopher]

Fantastic work, all!

AI-- In hindsight, I loved your day 1 play. It was very helpful going into day 2. If you had been alive on day 2 I'm not sure I could have avoided FOSing you!

Nictherat-- I didn't want to admit it during the day, but I thought he was soft-claiming either cop or tracker. When he was the first to ask about night roles, I knew that if he survived the day that he was my doc target. When AI wagoned Nictherat, I thought he picked-up on the cop/tracker claim, too. If AI was alive on day 2, that would have just given me even more of a reason to BW AI.

Going to read the dead/maf chat soon, but I just wanted to say to everyone thanks for making my first game on here so enjoyable. Here's to many more games!

(Just want to point out that my post 307 nailed it--either Drixx or KAAG was maf, but not both, and the town-aligned person helped to nail the scum. Good read by me!)

[AlwaysInnocent]

To be honest, Lowell's slip could have meant anything. This is why I decided to ignore Lowell eventually.

I should have been more careful with Nictherat, but I really thought there was no doubt about it that he was scum. See how wrong I was by misinterpreting Nictherat's "slip"?

It could just as easily have been a false positive in Lowell's case. What if he had a town PR and felt that a "true" newbie should be playing one?

[pignash]

Well played everyone. Sorry about getting angry in scum chat KAAG. Just frustrated I got tracked and thought you were going to catch drixx for something that was wrong.

[Christopher]

On day 1, I read through some of your previous games, Pignash. I feel so bad that you got lynched day 1 because you open up so much more after the first day!

[pignash]

Yeah I suck at day 1. I'm not awesome after that but it's my biggest weakness right now.

[Accountant]

MVP: KAAG. Magnificent Tracker play and analysis.

[KickAssAndGiggle]

MVP: KAAG. Magnificent Tracker play and analysis.

Thank you.


I see AI saying that the Lowell "tell" might not have been a tell, as in:

What if he had a town PR and felt that a "true" newbie should be playing one?

For me, Mafia is a game of probabilities, a bit like poker. Rarely is one 100% sure (although some people post like they are, but sometimes that's an act).

Were there possible innocent explanations? Yes, for sure. But on balance of probabilities, it was suspicious. And on D1, nothing else made me MORE suspicious of anyone, so tracking pignash was natural.


Here's how I see it:

If you lose your keys that you usually hang on a hook by the front door, but you know you had them when you came in last night, there are 2 possibilities:

A) You've put them somewhere silly while being absent-minded
B) Someone used a coat-hanger to steal them through your letter box and they are planning to rob you at a later date

Both are

POSSIBLE

, but one is obviously more likely: otherwise you'd phone the cops every time you lost your keys! WiFOM reasoning assumes two equally likely possibilities: it is not relevant when one scenario much more likely than another.

[Accountant]

I think Drixx played very well. He was surprisingly hard to lynch.

[Radical Rat]

Are you implying you DON'T call the cops every time you lose your keys?

[AlwaysInnocent]

MVP: KAAG. Magnificent Tracker play and analysis.

Thank you.


I see AI saying that the Lowell "tell" might not have been a tell, as in:

What if he had a town PR and felt that a "true" newbie should be playing one?

For me, Mafia is a game of probabilities, a bit like poker. Rarely is one 100% sure (although some people post like they are, but sometimes that's an act).

Were there possible innocent explanations? Yes, for sure. But on balance of probabilities, it was suspicious. And on D1, nothing else made me MORE suspicious of anyone, so tracking pignash was natural.


Here's how I see it:

If you lose your keys that you usually hang on a hook by the front door, but you know you had them when you came in last night, there are 2 possibilities:

A) You've put them somewhere silly while being absent-minded
B) Someone used a coat-hanger to steal them through your letter box and they are planning to rob you at a later date

Both are

POSSIBLE

, but one is obviously more likely: otherwise you'd phone the cops every time you lost your keys! WiFOM reasoning assumes two equally likely possibilities: it is not relevant when one scenario much more likely than another.

I agree with your reasoning about probabilities and the keys example. However, I do not think you can justifiably say that wanting to replace out to give others a chance is more likely to come from scum than town without backing it up with statistics. The probabilities are not always known.

[Accountant]

I still don't think Lowell's townread was worth lynching, even after knowing he's scum. Worth a track though. And it paid off.

[Mina]

Goodbye.