RedCoyote -
Frozen Jeanne -
All In - RedCoyote, RadiantCowbells, Kahlan (L-2)
Kaboose -
lewarcher82 -
Some Random Mafia Player - ProHawk (L-4)
RadiantCowbells - Some Random Mafia Player, Frozen Jeanne, All In (L-2)
ProHawk -
Kahlan -
In post 34, All In wrote:Here's how this works: it's 5-4
We lynch the bigger group to make it 4-4
Scum kills to make it 4-3
Lynch to 3-3
Kill to 3-2
Worst case scenario at this point is a 50% chance to hit Scum and a 2-1 lylo situation
The soon er we hit Scum, the more conftown we have.
If we hit Scum on Day 1, we have 4 conftown and will have 3 conftown on Day 2 VS 4 non-conftown
This game is all about math.
Lynching in the smaller pool will always give us less conftown. How is this not obvious?
@allIn I dont think it matters in the end the ratios are the same. Say you lynch someone from the east side creating a 4:4 then scum kills making it 4:3 or 3:4. well in a good scum hunt you are trying to find the actual scum not keep eliminating players in order to find scum based on no reason. so that could make the ratio 4:2 or 2:4 that is if we as town are properly trying to find scum. Now if its 4:2 after the lynch then more than likely scum will kill someone from the east side making 3:2. Now I feel that it's better to vote from the smaller pool because there are less people and in my mind you are more likely to find the scum of the west side easier than the east side. Which would make it 5:3 now if we find scum we have 3 confirm town and of course scum will kill which will make the ratio yet again at 4:3 or at 5:2- that is if we find scum from the westside because eastside scum can kill a westside town which will probably help hide him. we could either have a 5 town (4:3) or 6 town(5:2) having 6 town would be good and will be helpful in order to find the last scum player. so trying to find scum in the smaller pool seems to be a good choice too. Even if we don't find scum on the first turn we have a higher chance of finding scum when it becomes 1 in 3 vs 1 in 4. In the end I honestly dont think it matters which side we lynch from as long as we find scum. I choose to try and find scum on the west side first because its a little more of a higher chance. If this game is all about math then I'm betting on the extra 5% chance I get in a 1 in 4 vs 1 in 5.
In post 34, All In wrote:Here's how this works: it's 5-4
We lynch the bigger group to make it 4-4
Scum kills to make it 4-3
Lynch to 3-3
Kill to 3-2
Worst case scenario at this point is a 50% chance to hit Scum and a 2-1 lylo situation
The soon er we hit Scum, the more conftown we have.
If we hit Scum on Day 1, we have 4 conftown and will have 3 conftown on Day 2 VS 4 non-conftown
This game is all about math.
Lynching in the smaller pool will always give us less conftown. How is this not obvious?
@allIn I dont think it matters in the end the ratios are the same. Say you lynch someone from the east side creating a 4:4 then scum kills making it 4:3 or 3:4. well in a good scum hunt you are trying to find the actual scum not keep eliminating players in order to find scum based on no reason. so that could make the ratio 4:2 or 2:4 that is if we as town are properly trying to find scum. Now if its 4:2 after the lynch then more than likely scum will kill someone from the east side making 3:2. Now I feel that it's better to vote from the smaller pool because there are less people and in my mind you are more likely to find the scum of the west side easier than the east side. Which would make it 5:3 now if we find scum we have 3 confirm town and of course scum will kill which will make the ratio yet again at 4:3 or at 5:2- that is if we find scum from the westside because eastside scum can kill a westside town which will probably help hide him. we could either have a 5 town (4:3) or 6 town(5:2) having 6 town would be good and will be helpful in order to find the last scum player. so trying to find scum in the smaller pool seems to be a good choice too. Even if we don't find scum on the first turn we have a higher chance of finding scum when it becomes 1 in 3 vs 1 in 4. In the end I honestly dont think it matters which side we lynch from as long as we find scum. I choose to try and find scum on the west side first because its a little more of a higher chance. If this game is all about math then I'm betting on the extra 5% chance I get in a 1 in 4 vs 1 in 5.
The point is that lynching scum on day 1 basically wins us the game.
In memory of All In, Radja's character pick in Reality Show X.
In post 34, All In wrote:Here's how this works: it's 5-4
We lynch the bigger group to make it 4-4
Scum kills to make it 4-3
Lynch to 3-3
Kill to 3-2
Worst case scenario at this point is a 50% chance to hit Scum and a 2-1 lylo situation
The soon er we hit Scum, the more conftown we have.
If we hit Scum on Day 1, we have 4 conftown and will have 3 conftown on Day 2 VS 4 non-conftown
This game is all about math.
Lynching in the smaller pool will always give us less conftown. How is this not obvious?
^
In memory of All In, Radja's character pick in Reality Show X.
In post 43, RedCoyote wrote:The most likely scenario is that we hit town regardless of which neighborhood we pick. So it will either be 4v4 or 5v3. If it's 4v4, we learn a lot from which neighborhood the scum decide to kill in. If it's 5v3, the scum kind of have to kill in the 5v3 neighborhood. This is guiding my decision most, All In.
Can you explain this to me?
In memory of All In, Radja's character pick in Reality Show X.