Open 624 Fire and Ice - Fire Mafia Wins

[SnarkySnowman]

I'll be home tonight to catch back up.

[Viva La Gloria]

Alright.
So I think that it's pretty obvious that the Fire kill N2 was made to protect Silverwolf.
Cobalting is a little iffier to pinpoint because none of Ranger's scumreads were Fire scum and the only one that was correct was SO who was ice.
So we don't really get anything from NKA.

Aristophanes:
likely ice, extremely unlikely fire:
I think that Aristophanes is one of my top scum picks for Ice here and I'm questioning why a lot of people are townreading him. I absolutely hate the way he conducted himself day 1; I feel like in particular he's been doing way too much IIOA and way too little scumhunting. He spent an entire post picking apart why me 'vote jumping' was scummy and bad instead of actually scumhunting. His reads, especially on me, have basically followed crowd mentality; he was townreading me in the early day, moved to scumreading me when the pack did, and then started townreading me again when everyone else did again. I really don't think that he's fire though; when the SO wagon was getting steam he tried to derail it and said that we should be dealing with the Ika/SW situation instead. That just seems ridiculously unlikely to come from Fire scum given that Ika was virtually unlynchable and fairly universally townread. He makes a lot more sense as Ice; he did L-1 SO but the wagon was inevitable at that point and I could easily see him as a bussing scumbuddy who felt that he couldn't stop it.

Shinobi:
Possible ice, extremely unlikely fire:
So he was one of my big scumreads early because of his . I think he's fairly clearly not partnered with SW given that SW spent half the game trying to lynch him, and I don't think that a bus would be particularly likely to that extent in a multiball setup. He could absolutely be Ice;

SnarkySnowman:
Possible ice, very likely fire:

Masquerade:
Fairly likely ice, fairly likely fire:

Firebringer:
Unlikely ice, unlikely fire:

Something_Smart:

Oh shut the fuck up cancel all this.

VOTE: Shinobi

TheShadow: Scum - doesn't show up when his top lynch is at L-1. His top scumread is one that is completely unexplained. Obvious scum, should be lynched ASAP. Calling him a lurker and letting him slide is just bad.

Cobalt: Also scum - doesn't explain their reads under any circumstances, instead relying on generic lines like "they sound worse with every post - they look like scum scumhunting, not town scumhunting," without having any way to back up their statements. Relied on calling my slot a "policy lynch" without explaining why. It's bullshit but apparently everyone is okay with that because lolmeta.

Aeronaut: My third pick for scum - has been on site and posting elsewhere in yet doesn't care enough to show up despite the fact that the day is at an end and he isn't nearly caught up enough to make an informed decision. His only catchup post was centered on smearing scum on obvious things like people responding to questions and centering his scumreads on them being scum rather than the reasoning as to why they actually are. I think I confused him with beeboy earlier but I don't know what that says about beeboy.

Beeboy: null - has been posting but I can't really remember them having much impact on anything. He just sorta jumped on my bandwagon at the last second for...Reacting to something? His logic didn't really hold up since

Ika: town and someone I hope I never play with again. iirc he tends to be kind of spacey in regards to early game and tends to just hammer people whenever regardless of his alignment. It's annoying having him show up to play with me just so he can muck about and do nothing while I get lynched.

Silverwolf: null - I have no idea where to start here. I flip my read on her every 10 minutes. I'm fully aware my bias against people who tunnel me could be coloring my read but I genuinely have no idea.

Masq: probably town - I hated his early jump and am genuinely angry about it, but at least he's giving me some time to do stuff before he inevitably hammers me for what the fuck ever.

Something_Smart: possibly town? He's irrational and impossible to deal with but I can sort of see his posts coming from town, despite how misguided he is.

Aristo: possibly town? He said a bunch of stuff I liked earlier but he's nowhere to be found. I feel like he should be more interested than he is but it's plausible that he's just mia.

SnarkySnowman: probably town - I don't see a reason for scum to stick up for me here? But I'd really like to see his reasoning on why he likes me enough to start being vocal about disliking my wagon considering it's the only thing that defines him in this game thus far.

VLG: probably town - I thought his earlier push was hard to mimic for scum considering how much force he put behind it. Again, I see little reason for scum to call attention to themselves by proposing a variety of lynches and then trying to back me at EoD.

This is ice. The ONLY person he forgot on his reads list was the other Ice dude.

[Viva La Gloria]

SO was a major wagon at this point.

What are the chances that he just HAPPENS to forget about him in the readslist?

[Viva La Gloria]

Anyway, I'll continue with the readslist now, but I'm pretty fucking sure that Shin is scum here.

That's so glaring.

[Viva La Gloria]

In fact yeah I can't really carry on atm.

I need a Shinobi flip. Lynch it.

[Aristophanes]

Be unenthused with it, Shin.
I don't much care.

Will read Viva posts soon.

Snarky, are you ever going to not be on V/LA?
I hope to see you here tn as promised.

[Shinobi]

In fact yeah I can't really carry on atm.

I need a Shinobi flip. Lynch it.

The fuck.

[Aristophanes]

In fact yeah I can't really carry on atm.

I need a Shinobi flip. Lynch it.

The fuck.

I'll think about it, Viva.

Also, in a multi ball, Info is your best friend, as scumhunting is skewed by all parties taking part genuinely.

And I believe I have done info aided analysis. Maybe info over analysis. But not info instead of analysis.

[Shinobi]

SO was a major wagon at this point.

What are the chances that he just HAPPENS to forget about him in the readslist?

I flat out said I wasn't concerned with him because he was one of the few people not tunneling me.

[Viva La Gloria]

That's sketchy as fuck dude.

[Viva La Gloria]

I wasn't tunneling you either but I got a journal entry?

[Shinobi]

I wasn't tunneling you either but I got a journal entry?

Yes you fucking were.

[Shinobi]

The entire first section of the game was you death tunneling me over next to nothing.
Now it doesn't matter?
Lolk.

[Aristophanes]

SO was a major wagon at this point.

What are the chances that he just HAPPENS to forget about him in the readslist?

I flat out said I wasn't concerned with him because he was one of the few people not tunneling me.

Wait...everyone except SO was tunneling you?
I don't recall it being quite so widespread. But woe is you I guess.

Wouldn't it make sense for scum not to tunnel a scum mate anyway?
I don't think this argument helps you very much.

[Viva La Gloria]

I was tunneling at the very beginning but I graduated to a townread on you.
Just saying.

[Shinobi]

I'm sorry if I got a little heated but this is mega annoying.

[Shinobi]

SO was a major wagon at this point.

What are the chances that he just HAPPENS to forget about him in the readslist?

I flat out said I wasn't concerned with him because he was one of the few people not tunneling me.

Wait...everyone except SO was tunneling you?
I don't recall it being quite so widespread. But woe is you I guess.

Wouldn't it make sense for scum not to tunnel a scum mate anyway?
I don't think this argument helps you very much.

It doesn't mean anything is the point I'm making.
Me not posting about one person who left me alone during the rather nonsensical day 1 doesn't really tell anyone anything aside from the fact that I wasn't interested in talking about him. I didn't think it would be that hard for people to make that kind of conclusion but apparently I was wrong.

[Firebringer]

So the Silverwolf kill was likely a deliberate attempt to cross kill, since she didn't have any clear scumreads besides Shinobi / Fire, which means that last Ice is probably someone who was scumreading her.
(And Shinobi/Fire fit in that category as well.)
I'm going to go through some ISOs.

Right now I really don't think its Shinobi, and I know its not me.
So yeah.... this is pretty bad.

[Firebringer]

Hi, I'm back.
Aristo and Viva are likely town. Both are honestly scumhunting and are not just hunting one scum, either.
Shinobi I still don't like but his interactions with SO and SW were very likely not scum-scum, so I do think he's town.
Snarky's near impossible to read, on purpose I think, so he very well could be scum. (Fire, given his stance on SO.)
Masq is mild town, as he is doing some real scumhunting, but I could see him being Fire, as he is only hunting Ice.
Firebringer is probably Ice, given his lack of good interaction with SO and his general defensiveness.

Defensiveness is now a scum trait?
Good to know.

[Firebringer]

I am finding a real hard time getting in this game but I think Viva, Shinobi, and Aristo pretty strong town.

[Something_Smart]

Yes, defensiveness is a scum trait.
I feel like the Shinobi-SO interactions are probably not partners, because SO voted Shinobi pretty early on. I'll have to look again but I'm pretty sure scumbuddies wouldn't do this.
Fire, who are your scumreads?
Viva, do you really think Shinobi would be so obvious as to leave his buddy off his readlist? And then you think his buddy would point it out?

[SnarkySnowman]

I'm still convinced Shinobi is town and I don't see otherwise. My top choices right now are SS and Masq, having gone back and read. I don't think I agree with VLG's case on that one. I'll put together a full read list in a bit.

[texcat]

Day 3, Votecount 4

Shinobi(2):

Masquerade, Viva La Gloria

Firebringer(1):

Something_Smart

Something_Smart(1):

SnarkySnowman

Aristophanes(1):

Shinobi

Masquerade(1):

Aristophanes

Not Voting (1):

Firebringer,

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch or to no lynch.

Deadline

: Friday, February 26, 2016 9:00 am (Texas time)

Countdown to deadline

: (expired on 2016-02-26 09:00:00)

[Aristophanes]

Wow, this is some good wagon splitting!

Anyone feel like consolidating a bit?

[Something_Smart]

Why are you rushing this we have 9 days.
How about you consolidate?