Borderlands Mafia [GAME OVER]


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Post Post #4175 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 2:25 pm

Post by YT2980 »

Boy oh boy our numbers are dwindling. Is it safe to say we are officially in MYLO/LYLO?
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Post Post #4176 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 2:25 pm

Post by YT2980 »

Unless it is multiball?
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Post Post #4177 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 2:26 pm

Post by YT2980 »

Vote: Elyse
as well. More inclined to think she's scum than TSO.
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Post Post #4178 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 2:26 pm

Post by SirCakez »

It's definitely multiball. Nothing else makes sense. And again I don't see how any of these could be vig shots. Maybe Cooldog but there were far better vig shots then him.
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Post Post #4179 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 2:26 pm

Post by T S O »

I've spent the weekend compiling reads. I had pisskop and CD reads, but hadn't got to grapes yet. I'll throw them out in the thread, since there's no point editing them now.
"i have the sickest grossest feeling that even if it's my lynch today, my townflip still won't lead to a tso lynch, and then he'll find some bullshit way to reason either shooting or lynching gm tomorrow because if there's anyone who can strongarm a mislynch despite his reads or cases being proved wrong time and again it's tso"
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Post Post #4180 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 2:27 pm

Post by Rob14 »

I have no idea how I could have gotten the result I did if redirectors work the way Skull said they do. That removes the last sensible reason for my result.

The only thing I can think of is that the Eye was considered a weapon, even though it isn't??? But I have zero idea. I didn't bother submitting an action because my results are clearly even less reliable than normal for a gunsmith. It's more likely I'd draw out the vig or get another false guilty than actually catch scum, and we can't afford another "guilty" that isn't a guilty.
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Post Post #4181 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 2:27 pm

Post by Suzune »

Why would we be in lylo there are twelve players? Assuming multiple mafia factions, one would need to be defeated before lylo can be obtained. Assuming that Aafer is not the only one in that faction.
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Post Post #4182 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 2:28 pm

Post by T S O »

Spoiler:
CoolDog: Null. I can't really see anything that's causing me to scumread CD, and most of the posts he make are sensible, but I feel like it's all too easy to fake. I like #510 because he's open about his belief in multiball, I think that when scum find themselves in a multiball scenario they're extremely careful about not slipping about being informed and I like how he just comes out with it. I also like how he calls beeboy out in #1057 for a bad attack, but I'm probably biased there. He rides the fence with regards to Nicole in #2231 - he agrees with me that Nicole is the correct vote, but also says that he likes Venmar's counterpush on Rob? Hmm. In #2734 he claims to have "reason" to disbelieve pisskop's claim but we never find out what this reason is. That said, #2737 is a pretty good post and I like his thought processes in it. There's nothing particularly interesting after that - he votes Nicole, questions why people are even talking to her, which is all well and good but is still quite a null action at heart - and the day ends with him giving his scumreads. He should really talk about his scumread of Cakez because I have no idea where that's coming from.

There isn't really a single standout moment or quick combination of posts in CoolDog's ISO where I feel that I'm getting a good grasp on his alignment. That's partly due to his catch-up playstyle, but it's also due to the fact that a lot of the things he comments on are things with a clear yes/no answer, rather than the greyer in-betweens. I think he's also somewhat skating by given that I remember a lot of null reads on him, just like mine. I suspect him slightly less than Flubber, but it's definitely time for him to start making his alignment clear.
"i have the sickest grossest feeling that even if it's my lynch today, my townflip still won't lead to a tso lynch, and then he'll find some bullshit way to reason either shooting or lynching gm tomorrow because if there's anyone who can strongarm a mislynch despite his reads or cases being proved wrong time and again it's tso"
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Post Post #4183 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 2:28 pm

Post by Suzune »

I am also inclinded to think that Elyse is a good choice. She is the one I wrote up a day ago and remains in that pile of people I think are probably mafia.
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Post Post #4184 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 2:28 pm

Post by Rob14 »

We're likely already beyond LyLo and just waiting for the scum to kill each other so we can lose. There's no way three scum factions within 12 players don't form a majority.

VOTE: Elyse because idgaf
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Post Post #4185 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 2:28 pm

Post by T S O »

Spoiler: pisskop
Pisskop: Nulltown. Pretty horrible opening. His stances on Dwlee are outright bad - "Dwlee has too much pressure on him, but let's flip him, but I think he's town" - but I've actually came full circle on this because I think that pisskop-scum wouldn't actually make such blatantly scummy posts. He never really explains why the Dwlee-scum case is bad, he never really explains why he thinks I'm scum when the read originated from the middle of d1. In #1517 he calls Nero bad for scumreading him but less than 2 pages later he calls Nero scum in #1555, which is odd. I think that pisskop-town could be lazy, but would remain internally consistent with his reads.

In #1986 he says he didn't want Dwlee lynched, which I don't at all understand given that he himself hammered Dwlee. Even if he felt that he needed a Dwlee townflip to gain traction on something, he still wanted him dead. I didn't buy his Doctor claim at all, in large part because #2405 seems like an outright lie to me. I still feel like #2405 is a lie but I now sorta buy the claim. I also don't see what pisskop gets out of making that lie as scum. I know that pisskop is smart enough to make that doublebluff play and get away with it but I don't think he'd be gutsy enough to do it with a critical claim like that. I think that I was confbiasing against pisskop a lot in posts like #2540 because all his reasons for lynching wguerts have nothing to do with wguerts being scum, but I was probably just underestimating how much he wanted to survive. Pisskop legitimately doesn't mention a single person that he is townreading on d1 so it's not outside the realms of possibility that he was telling the truth about that. I still have no idea why he chose YT as a placeholder vote given that he actually calls YT scum in his only readslist of the day and he should explain that but it's a fairly glaring inconsistency in his story. There are a lot of posts like #2691 that I was sure was coming from survivalistic scum, but more and more I can see them as coming from desperate town either. Nothing pisskop does really makes that much sense as scum. His posts are unpolished this game which is also something I associate with pisskop-town more than pisskop-scum - I remember him just gliding under the radar in NY 180 before dying n1, but he's a lot louder and brash here. #2926 is town posting - he flat-out admits that he just wants Pere's vote, which is pretty town as well. Pisskop starts off bad, gets a little better, then gets a lot better in this game. In #3225 he too admits that wguerts is probably town, which is another good play as I'd expect pisskop-cum to continue his wguerts-scum rhetoric to ensure the lynch. I'm not sure why I was voting pisskop at this stage because he was actually posting quite well by now. He goes a while without really posting anything indicative but returns to attack me in #4049. This looks like a town attack because he jumps on me in a "gotcha!" moment, realises he was wrong, and backs off. I think pisskop is a lot more likelier to jump on me like that as town and not think the accusation through.

I started off this read intending to call pisskop null with a townlean. Pisskop is actually a lot townier than that. He's not Cakez-level of town because I still want him to talk about why he chose a scumread as a placeholder vote, and his early game is suspect, but he's at the tier below that.
"i have the sickest grossest feeling that even if it's my lynch today, my townflip still won't lead to a tso lynch, and then he'll find some bullshit way to reason either shooting or lynching gm tomorrow because if there's anyone who can strongarm a mislynch despite his reads or cases being proved wrong time and again it's tso"
-Marquis
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Post Post #4186 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 2:30 pm

Post by Suzune »

Oops, not a good enter there. I wanted to continue to type. To finish that thought. She remains the one that I feel the most shaky about. She comments on and responds to everything but I do not believe that is enough to qualify as scum hunting. In fact, she has done little since the first day. Therefore, I am inclined to believe she is probably scum and on the lurk. She is using her nice sounding observation posts to carry the game. Or at least that is my opinion of the situation.

VOTE: Elyse
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Post Post #4187 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 2:31 pm

Post by SirCakez »

Scum pile is {Elyse, Almost, Nero, Flubber, Pops, TSO} in that order.
P-Edit: Pls not another quick hammer. No more votes.
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Post Post #4188 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 2:31 pm

Post by Rob14 »

I'm 100% fine with a quick hammer honestly. Just want this game done.
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Post Post #4189 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 2:32 pm

Post by YT2980 »

Let her claim before hammering.
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Post Post #4190 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 2:32 pm

Post by Suzune »

In post 4184, Rob14 wrote:We're likely already beyond LyLo and just waiting for the scum to kill each other so we can lose. There's no way three scum factions within 12 players don't form a majority.
If we could prioritize getting rid of one of the mafia factions we can try to put ourselves in majority again. The trick is the town needs to come up in high majority before one of the factions eliminates the other.

p-edit, I agree, we should be wary of another quick hammer.
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Post Post #4191 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 2:33 pm

Post by SirCakez »

In post 4188, Rob14 wrote:I'm 100% fine with a quick hammer honestly. Just want this game done.

This is a terrible attitude. As is not sending in a night action. A result is a result.
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Post Post #4192 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 2:33 pm

Post by Elyse »

Unvote right fucking now
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Post Post #4193 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 2:33 pm

Post by Elyse »

Everyone
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Post Post #4194 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 2:33 pm

Post by Elyse »

Scum have the numbers and are trying to push a mislynch
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Post Post #4195 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 2:33 pm

Post by YT2980 »

So 5/12 remaining players are likely scum. Should we consider mass-claiming, or is that jumping the gun?
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Post Post #4196 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 2:34 pm

Post by Elyse »

If you seriously think this unanimous flash wagon this late into the game is on scum then you're fucking trash
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Post Post #4197 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 2:34 pm

Post by YT2980 »

You aren't convincing me at all, elyse, I have everybody pegged as town on your lynch wagon.
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Post Post #4198 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 2:34 pm

Post by SirCakez »

UNVOTE:
I'm listening.
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Post Post #4199 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 2:35 pm

Post by Elyse »

I made a reply during the night so I wouldn't have to re-catch up. I'll post it now.

P-edit:
Shut the fuck up and let me post some content.

I haven't seen one person post a justified scumread on me.

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