Open 630 (Pick Your Power X/Y): Rap Battle Mafia (GAME END)

[Ranger]

ABOUT FREAKIN' TIME.
Do you know why?
I've wanted into here!
But missed signups I fear. :(

[Ranger]

{Red Magic}
{Kuroi}
{Persivul}
{Golden Robster, lilith}
{beeboy}
{Maxous, A Drowned Kernel}
That's page one.

[Ranger]

{Red Magic}
{Kuroi, Persivul}
{Golden Robster, lilith, beeboy}
{Maxous, A Drowned Kernel}
There's two.

[Ranger]

-Scum most likely didnt pick the same numbers. So usually no more than 1 scum per number.

As the person who pioneered this line of thought (cheater! >:(), I obviously agree.

There is a maximum of one scum in {beeboy, KainTepes}.
There is a maximum of one scum in {Kuroi, Red Magic, Maxous, Aneninen}.
There is a maximum of one scum in {Ranger, Aristodesis, A Drowned Kernel, Golden Robster}.
This does not mean scum cannot be in the unique numbers (they can), but it gives a good guideline.

{Red Magic}
{Kuroi, Persivul}
{pisskop}
{Golden Robster, lilith, beeboy}
{Maxous, A Drowned Kernel}

So you obviously know my picks for the scum in the 4s.

[Ranger]

Oh. Whoops. While Aneninen and Aristodesis haven't posted as of my reference, the Maxous/Droned Kernel scumreads are decent enough for them to have earned a spot on my list.

{Red Magic}
{Kuroi, Persivul}
{pisskop, Aneninen, Aristodesis}
{Golden Robster, lilith, beeboy}
{Maxous, A Drowned Kernel}

[Ranger]

{Red Magic}
{Kuroi, Persivul, pisskop, Aristodesis}
{Aneninen, kirroha}
{lilith, beeboy}
{Golden Robster}
{Maxous, A Drowned Kernel}
That's three.

[Ranger]

Why do I not exist in your readslist Ranger

Because you didn't post until near the end of page three, my prior lists were made prior to me reading that.

It should also go without saying: if I'm wrong on A Drowned Kernel, Golden Robster is my secondary pick for scum in that group. Again, only one of them can be scum, but I definitely think that between them, you'll find a scum. I currently find A Drowned Kernel slightly more likely to be scum than Golden Robster.

[Ranger]

Actually.

I change my mind.
Persivul's 79 in particular is giving me

strong

Jeanne vibes about Golden Robster.

{Red Magic}
{Kuroi, Persivul, pisskop, Aristodesis}
{Aneninen, kirroha}
{lilith, beeboy}
{A Drowned Kernel}
{Maxous, Golden Robster}

VOTE: Golden Robster.

[Ranger]

The game I'm thinking of Jeanne said she was all excited about getting a role. Turned out to be a scum neighborizer.

^What he said.

[Ranger]

Meant to post the list with it.

{Red Magic, Persivul}
{Kuroi, pisskop, Aristodesis}
{Aneninen, kirroha}
{lilith, beeboy}
{A Drowned Kernel}
{Maxous, Golden Robster}

[Ranger]

Secret meta reasons.

I'm calling BS on this.
I happen to think this is actually you being

town

and BSing, but this is without question still BS.

[Ranger]

{Red Magic, Persivul}
{Kuroi, pisskop, Aristodesis}
{Aneninen, kirroha}
{KainTepes}
{lilith, beeboy}
{A Drowned Kernel}
{Maxous, Golden Robster}

[Ranger]

lilith2013 (4): kirroha, A Drowned Kernel, KainTepes, Maxous

Okay, yeah, given this and Maxous's stated reason for switching?

Maxous is definitely scum.

[Ranger]

{Red Magic, Persivul}
{Kuroi, pisskop, Aristodesis, KainTepes}
{Aneninen, kirroha}
{lilith, beeboy}
{A Drowned Kernel}
{Maxous, Golden Robster}
As of 11.

[Ranger]

beeboy's vote was terrible, btw.

[Ranger]

{Red Magic, Persivul}
{Kuroi, pisskop, Aristodesis, KainTepes}
{Aneninen, kirroha, lilith}
{A Drowned Kernel}
{beeboy}
{Maxous, Golden Robster}
Final list.

[Ranger]

I'm still pretty sure lynching a PR on D1 is wrong from a theory standpoint.

I understand what you're saying (we get information even if they're scum, and if they're not scum, the night can help prove it), but sometimes, obvscum is obviously scum and letting them live an extra day is pointless just because they claimed a PR.

This is especially true given scum are likely to be higher up on the list for previously-discussed reasons, thus, are statistically more likely to actually hold a PR. However, scum having a PR is still scum having a PR. We want them to not have them, so we lynch them.

This said, lilith does not fit the profile of obvscum, thus, is not a D1 lynch.

[Ranger]

1) if I was scum, why the hell would I tell you I had a pr role, considering I was last draft

The better question isn't why you would do it as scum. Scum have any myriad of reasons: they know they're safe from NKs, they think claiming a PR is safer than claiming VT, they think claiming a PR will give them town credit, and so on. Why would TOWN who is

last in the draft

let the scum know they got a role? A real town player last in the draft is going to be the ABSOLUTE LAST PLACE scum look for the PR. Ergo, as town who is last in the draft...you have literally no reason at all to claim.

2) why are you still voting me, considering the chance of me dying is incredibly high

Because it's my wincon to have scum die.

It'd be the easiest thing for me to claim vt and blend in

Town or scum, doesn't matter: I have 0% doubt you got a role. You would not lie about getting a role. It's stupid as scum, it's stupid as town. CLAIMING that role, on the other hand...

Check their meta.

Have you considered that maybe I have already done this and I know a bit about Golden Robster already? Because, uh, yeah. I have. Your meta is BS.

[Ranger]

he 'claiming a PR is safer than claiming VT' holds no water in this setup:

I know it doesn't, but I think scum (especially newer scum) can THINK it does erroneously, thus, the motivation to claim: because they're under the mistaken impression it's safer than claiming VT, they will claim the role and hope it helps them live.

[Ranger]

Already answered. I did an analysis of the roles picked in five runs of this setup because I wanted to get a role. This was the best one that wasn't taken in the first 3 rounds.

Speaking as the person who mislynched him last game (hey, at least I learned!), I can confirm that Persivul does in fact know the numbers behind the setup so to speak and did his research. He was town last time, I still think he's town this time.

[Ranger]

I want you to look at the top 3 players and think about who is playing like what

That's easy. lilith's confident town.
You are also pretty town.
kirroha is, similar to bork's stance, mostly just a personal read, but one I also think is town.

[Ranger]

So this thread of discussin can only hurt us, right?

Most likely, yes.

My point was more that Persivul is town, not that Persivul is right.

[Ranger]

Also, youre dangerously close to vilating your own guideline

I'm really not?
I'm townreading KainTepes, and scumreading beeboy.
I'm scumreading Maxous hardcore, and townreading to various extents the other 1s.
I'm townreading Aristodesis, and am myself among the 2s; the only violation is in how I think both A Drowned Kernel and Golden Robster are scummy, but

even there

I have made my stance rather clear: hard,

hard

scumread on Golden Robster, with A Drowned Kernel frankly being more like nullscum right now: admittedly not good, but more likely town than Golden Robster.

[Ranger]

Ranger, why do you say I am "confident town"?

Asking me that is like asking why the sky's blue.
I mean, sure, there might be some scientific reason (I realize the irony, I have a science avatar, but no, I am not a scientist), but it's something so ridiculously vague and obscure that your average person doesn't know, and when asked the question, will go, "the sky's blue because that's what color it is."

Same principle. You're confident town because that's what you are. I don't have an explanation for why, it's just what you are, I see it, and there's not much more I can say beyond that.

[Ranger]

You're confident town because that's what you are. I don't have an explanation for why, it's just what you are, I see it, and there's not much more I can say beyond that.

Eh, correction, I could, but it'd involve pointing out posts and saying, "these say confident town to me". Still no explanation as for why they do (they just do, because it's what I see), but it'd give an idea.

I'd rather not bother unless it's really

that

important to you, though.

[Ranger]

Would a Newb-Scum do so – being the last one at the Draft?

I strongly think so, yes, especially if they didn't get a scumbuddy telling them otherwise.

[Ranger]

Again, what's the point of me saying I had a pr role?

I've stated this multiple times now.
I can list, and have listed, many reasons it is beneficial for scum to do so.
The reasons for town to act as you have is...considerably smaller.

[Ranger]

Are you sayin' she's scum and her buddies are newbs
Or did I get your highlight totally screwed?

There are any number of ways Golden Robster could pull the move without experienced scumbuddies advising against it. Lack of experienced scumbuddies, lack of forethought on the scumbuddies' part, lack of communication in general, and so forth. So not necessarily, but possibly, yes.

[Ranger]

Who do you think with her teamed scum?

That would be Maxous and beeboy.

This claim is off, considering KainThraddash's game so far.

KainTepes is apparently a Town of Salem veteran. From everything I know of that site, and from everything I have observed from KainTepes, I'd have taken it as a scumclaim if he had claimed to have taken anything

other than

a vig. With him having tried to snatch a vig (which, frankly, would have hit town by this same profile I've built for him), I think he's town.

[Ranger]

Also, mod knows, but players may not:
My internet's slow, absolute bullocks.

[Ranger]

Kain's still town, btw.

[Ranger]

@Ranger: can you walk me through your scum reads on Maxous and GR?

Can I, yes.

Would I prefer to waste the time on that, not unless I absolutely have to.

I just don't see anything, at all, even

remotely

town from Maxous. Everything from him screams opportunistic scum. Golden Robster just reads as fake. I'd rather not spend the time pointing out posts, because if you can't see these from isoing them, then me putting time into showing it won't suddenly change your mind.

Had he did that all alone, might be right, I see.
But what if it was advised via Scum PT?

"But what if scum coached him?" is not a valid reason. My experience is that, nine times out of ten, scum are not actually giving/receiving coaching. So, unless I

personally see evidence suggesting coaching

, I assume there is none. Ergo, KainTepes likely is town.

[Ranger]

This wall is awful

To the contrary.

Aneninen and I are largely in sync. He's my strongest townread right now.

Nothing in this post even resembles a play based stance on anybody; just a bunch of "well these guys could be scum for reasons i cant possibly persue so *shrug*"

I'm doing literally the exact same thing. Am I scum, too?

Other people that would say that: town that, against all odds, got a non-vanilla role and are waving their dick around a little bit because they're excited about it

Only problem: Golden Robster does not fit that profile as far as I am aware.

I also hate the replace-out, too.

[Ranger]

Why did you say you were doing "the same thing [as Anen]?" meaning you have similar reads (which is fine) or that you're playing the game the same way?

Both? Aneninen is making many of the same points I have, especially on Maxous and Golden Robster, but also on many of my townreads. He's pushing them similarly, too.

What are you basing this on?

Believe me, if I could share, I would, but site rules prevent me from doing so. But Golden Robster's play here strongly makes me think scum,

especially

the replace-out.

Like in EoSD you spent time working with people you thought were town to see things your way and I think that only failed because you were wrong about a lot of your reads that game.

That was my second game on site. It was my first completed game, since Bad Poetry ran on forever taking like a month or two to end. My play since then has changed. I still am working with people I think are town. I'm interacting with you. I'm interacting with Aneninen. I'm pushing things as they come up and I see it. Key phrase: "as they come up". Read my iso; I'm

pretty

sure I point out the posts I hate as I see them? If not, then yeah, my bad, need to start doing that, but I prefer not to put in the extra time to go back and list all the past ones. Ask pie how I played in Blitz 21; that's closer to my modern play.

Here you don't seem to care about convincing anyone about your reads even when directly asked (especially since as of now, neither Golden Robster nor Maxous has any traction) and I'm wondering why that is.

Well honestly, because I'm not concerned. I'm not currently worried someone obviously town is going to be lynched. I certainly don't mind the pressure on beeboy, for instance. (I, obviously, support it.) If my reads are right, I expect to die. If my reads are wrong, I expect to live, and I'll re-evaluate until they are right. If I feel the need to push a read, town or scum, I will push a read. But as of now? I don't.

What sort of "sync"? Our reads don't match.

Yes they do? With one or two exceptions, your reads are almost identical to mine.

Or did you mean how I'm thinkin' by that sketch?

This is also true, though.

[Ranger]

^See that?

That's why I'm not concerned.

Aristodesis is a townread, and the least likely of my group to be scum (behind Firebringer and Godz), but they're not even close to being lynched.
beeboy, the next wagon behind them, is a scumread and has a whopping two votes. I can always join there if I feel the need to save a townread.

[Ranger]

just as one example, his 474.

There was interest in lynching Aristodesis even back then. Still is. Opportunism.

28/55 do nothing to make me think he's town.

413 mirrored my thoughts about Anen on a very general level (my initial impression when reading Anen's post was that it was a big ball of meh and that i could easily see it as scum just making a huge wall-post in order to look like they were scum hunting when in reality they weren't bringing anything new or insightful to the table).

It was defending himself. Not town.

i think lilith is town but i don't mind his read on her.

I do. It was, once more, opportunism.

The closest thing Maxous has to a read which is not opportunistic is the OMGUS-scumread on my slot for absolutely no tangible reason. (The push on Golden Robster does not count, because yes I have VERY good reason to push that hard against Golden Robster.)

Outside of that one read, every scumread I've seen from him has been on a player others well before him had already expressed suspicion on. So I don't see much original thought at all. Heck, even his scumread on me I believe was mirroring Golden Robster's stated opinion. (May have that backwards, would have to check.)

i'm asking for reasoning so that i can see where i'm going wrong here in reading his posts.

I can't give any. When something looks fake to me, it looks fake to me. I can't describe

why

it looks fake, because looking fake is just something that is or isn't.

[Ranger]

So.

I actually read all of that.
One, it's amazing. Seriously, don't skim because of the format, you'll be glad you've read it all.
Two, it's getting nominated once this game is over because while this game has had some incredible entertainment from the theme, Godz just owned everyone except the mod. (Who is most likely displaying restraint.)
Third, if you actually read all of that to see the content, you would realize: Godz might actually be town.

It's certainly enough where I don't want to pursue him. And actually, will join in.
VOTE: Maxous.

[Ranger]

LYNCH BEEBOY?????

Most likely, yes. I'll switch over there when I feel like it.
Right now I feel like voting Maxous, though.

[Ranger]

Ranger sounds like she's all happy that the replacement for her scum partner is a lot better than the original.

Dude.

I was voting Golden Robster hardcore

.

Aside from a marathon game which really shouldn't count, I never treat scumbuddies that way.

No.
Godz is probably town for three simple reasons.
-Godz's reads look similar to my own in a way that is not reminiscent of buddying.
-This is because you can still see a lot of original thoughts behind Godz's posts.
-Furthermore, Godz's reads still end up going against the grain: they're not easy.

Everything (save one minor thing which I'm not mentioning, because I still have my eye on it) Godz has done has made me think town. Every problem I had with the slot (save one), Godz answered. If Godz is that good a scum player, then bravo. But I don't think Godz is scum anymore.

[Ranger]

I think my point of you over-exaggerating the push on Golden Robster has merit

Reads change off of new evidence. I was scumreading Golden Robster.
I'm not scumreading Godz.
If you asked me, I would still be scumreading Golden Robster.
But I still am not scumreading Godz.

Speaking of new information: the Maxous-beeboy interaction feels like an act.

[Ranger]

Lean Scum: Kirroha, Maxous, Aristodesis, Firebringer

I get that reads change.
But I think yours have changed for the worse.

Maxous, sure. Firebringer, sure. I still don't see anything from Aristodesis to change my slight townread there, although I'll admit that Godz being prob-town does by proxy weaken the townread slightly. (For the aforementioned "two scum not picking 2" reason.)

i don't care how much or how little interest there was for lynching Arisyn. what i care about is the reasoning behind it.

And I could be wrong but I'm pretty sure Maxous was not the first to use said reasoning. So my point remains unchanged. Opportunism.

i think you're really on the wrong track here, and i have no idea how to proceed with this any further.

The problem is, I feel the same way about you and I really don't know what to do about it.

[Ranger]

Actually.

The problem is, I feel the same way about you and I really don't know what to do about it.

We do have common ground.

In one place.

VOTE: beeboy.

We'll sort others out on later days I suppose.

[Ranger]

How about instead of lynching between {Beeboy, Ari, Max}
We just simply lynch Kirroha?

Like this.

[Ranger]

I cannot get to this game tonight.

Tomorrow.

[Ranger]

Sorry for the delay.
I lost power. Back now, gimme a bit to read.

[Ranger]

Can you express some more about that?

It felt like an act because nothing came of it: the interaction was words, with nothing tangible on either side. Maxous pressed beeboy, initiating their conversation. Then, he backed off, ending their conversation...with literally nothing having changed in their reads, at all. So, the entire thing was just half a page of fluff, meant to look good without doing anything.

[Ranger]

but for someone making a song and dance of how much you hard, hard scum-read GR, you jumped up off the slot pretty easily.

There's no tangible way to explain this. It's who I am. I have a read. I pursue that read. I put words in that read and continue pressing that read. But sometimes, I get stuck in the awkward position where I'm forced to admit I was probably wrong on that read. This is one of those times. 819 continues the strong posting from Godz I saw before. 823 also displays insight into Firebringer I was also having (but not stating), while also voicing basically what I had in mind about Maxous better than I did.

[Ranger]

So anyway, Ranger, I did some reading,
But there's bigger fish to fry, others who need to die,
So I'd really like if we could see eye to eye.
What about beeboy looks like scum to you?
His posts aren't great, but I see nothing askew.
With your town read on Persi, can you give me a run through?
Because I think all of his posts reek of dog poo.

I'm townreading Persivul for the same reason you're townreading beeboy: past experience with him. I

could

be wrong, yes, but I'm still pretty sure this is Persivul's town game.

For beeboy, that one's a bit harder to explain. I just don't feel his posts are genuine, and his stances have mostly been bad.
You're right, that's not the best of cases. He's not the person I'd prefer to be voting. (That'd be Maxous.) But if push comes to shove, he's still got one of the highest chances of any player to flip scum as far as I can tell, higher than almost anyone else.

[Ranger]

839 is my thoughts as well.

VOTE: Maxous.
I see some support there.

[Ranger]

Godz's thoughts are similar in nature, albeit differing in names, to mine as well:

And don't treat my dismissal of the Ari wagon as a spurn,
I think how little they've contributed is cause for concern.
But whether they're scum isn't so easy to discern,
And I think a Maxous lynch yields greater return.
If it's between beeboy and Ari, I'd vote Ari first.
Of the two, I think they looks worse.
But I really do think Max and Pers are scum,
And if they make it to endgame I will feel rather glum.

Aristodesis is a weaker townread of mine, with the townread increasingly weak with time.
That being said, I'd prefer not to lynch them. Given the choice between {beeboy, Aristodesis}, beeboy's my choice in a landslide.
While I also think Persivul is town, Maxous is my top choice.

[Ranger]

Red Magic (pieguyn + borkjerfkin) - meeeeeeh, they haven't done much they wouldn't fake, neither head has been as incisive as I know they can be. pieguyn doesn't get brownie points for defending me :S

This is the closest thing to an original read Maxous has. All the others are ridiculously safe, easy stances to take. The second-closest is the Ranger read, but I've already discussed that.

[Ranger]

This is going to become one of those games where we all die so I will probably need to compromise so I might as well do it now. Intent to hammer.

This post is absolutely terrible, by the way.

[Ranger]

863 is ridiculously genuine.
The slot may not have done much scumhunting, but is very much still town.

[Ranger]

Want to know why? Look at my 461

Your stated reason for townreading Maxous was 173, which

was the worst post Maxous has made the entire game

, containing the

highly

-opportunistic vote on lilith which was incredibly pro-scum and had absolutely terrible reasoning attached.

[Ranger]

You understand that a bad post doesn't mean he's scum, right?

Oh, sure, one bad post wouldn't mean he's scum, I'll recognize that.
An entire isos worth is a pretty good bet to make, though.

[Ranger]

I don't think max is scum for not being loud,
I think he's scum for not being proud.
I don't think he's made any attempts to push a read,
Instead sitting back and watching others take the lead.

^What Godz said.

[Ranger]

Curious what Ranger thinks of Maxous' jump from Arist to Beeboy.

Honestly it read as a bus.

[Ranger]

Well.
Aneninen is town. (See also: scum's favored counterwagon to Aristodesis.)
Godz is town. (See also: same number as Aristodesis.)
Firebringer is town. (See above.)

Give me a bit to review further.

[Ranger]

I still am very much

not

fond of the lilith wagon.

[Ranger]

Hey, why dont you lynch scum then?

No need for the hostile attitude. In due time.
I need to reassess. Aristodesis did not flip as I had anticipated. I want to figure out if it was just them I was wrong about or if I was wrong elsewhere, too.

But I still say the lilith wagon sucks.

[Ranger]

Maxy and Kain, we should FoS 'em Today.

My first instinct is still Maxous scum, Kain town.
IF there was a scum busser, the only real candidates are {beeboy, Persivul}. pisskop's not scum for the reason you mentioned, having started and driven the wagon through. Firebringer and Godz were both 2s, so they cannot be scum. You, I'm pretty sure are town, and you're right about kirroha: kirroha could have let us no-lynch D1, yet didn't. That may not 100% clear kirroha, but it makes kirroha

far

less likely to be scum.

Ergo, {beeboy, Persivul} are the only possible bussers.

I will take another look to make absolutely sure, but yesterday my reads were beeboy as scum, Persivul as town.

I WILL say that Persivul's unlikely to be scum with Maxous, though. He's not bus-inclined. While he'll do it maybe once (in exactly the position he would be), he's not suicidal enough to do it twice.

[Ranger]

Well, unless you think kuroi was the scum kill while red magic was vigged

Aronis vigged me last time I was in this setup and got lynched as a result, because prior to his claim people were assuming I was the scum's nightkill.

So, it wouldn't be impossible. I wouldn't put it past being two scum kills, I wouldn't put it past being scumkill Kuroi, vig Red Magic, I wouldn't put it past scumkill Red Magic, vig Kuroi. Any are possible until the 1x vig claims...and then we use simple analysis to determine which.

Max has a decent point. Yes, scum distance, but that's usually a vote with a nebulous reason and not much push. In this case he gave numerous reasons for Aristo over multiple posts. In the end he bought Ari's AtE, which I also bought. And, he gave up town cred by not being on a wagon that was pretty much inevitable. Plus, he didn't get on the Anen wagon, which was the main alternative at the end.

>_>

[Ranger]

If we have a cop, I'd rather see an investigate on Ranger than a lynch at this point.

Cop investigations off of wifom-paranoia are bad.

The argument, "but they could do it for wifom!" applies to

literally every action possible

in a mafia game.
"They could be a double-busser, for the wifom!"
"They could have cross-bussed, for the wifom!"
You get the idea.

Occam's razor: scum picking the same number would be disadvantageous, sabotaging their chances of nabbing PRs. The simplest explanation is that they did not do so; the contrived explanation is that they deliberately allowed for themselves to be near the bottom knowing it would guarantee them being goons,

just

for wifom that the town may or may not actually come to believe. Risk-reward, it's simply not worth it.

The cop should be checking probably around the middle: somewhere where the scum are unlikely to kill (because higher up is more likely PRs than in the middle), but where we can get some good results.

[Ranger]

2 scum within this pool: {Maxous, Anen, beeboy, Persivul}

Anen's town.
So, pick one between {Maxous, beeboy, Persivul}.

[Ranger]

Except last night, they killed one of the four 1s, rather than higher up where PRs are more likely to be.

And this makes the scenario more likely...how?

It does exactly the opposite to me. If you're killing lower in the list as scum, that means it's more likely you're higher in the list. Vice-versa, too.

If anyone wants to help me comb through Ari's ISO,
A second opinion is something to which I wouldn't say no.

Will be doing later.

[Ranger]

suggesting I would of night-killed a VT pieguyn is ridonculous.

And you would know they were a VT going into night...how?

Pretty sure they never claimed.

We know lilith got a role.
We know pisskop got a role.
We also could assume kirroha got a role.

All of these because Persivul and Kain both claimed VTs, one going for one type of vig-or-whatever, the other going for the other vig-or-whatever. (I forget which was which, doesn't matter, we know they're not lying.)

Who's next on the list?
beeboy, unclaimed, sure.
The name immediately below beeboy, though, is...Red Magic.

Of the players left completely-unclaimed (all the top three were guaranteed PRs even though none of them claimed which), the only slot above Red Magic was beeboy.

So no.

The argument about killing "obv-VT" Red Magic won't hold, because they had a

significant

chance of being a PR.

[Ranger]

VOTE: ranger
this isnt getting enough focus

Dude, I'm literally confirmed town.

[Ranger]

Who's next on the list?
beeboy, unclaimed, sure.
The name immediately below beeboy, though, is...Red Magic.

(BTW, this might support a beeboy-Maxous scumteam. If the scum knew beeboy's role, e.g. beeboy's scum, they would have obvious incentive to, you know, not shoot him, and to shoot below him, e.g. Red Magic.)

[Ranger]

anyone in this game is confded its me.

Your

role

is confirmed.
Your alignment isn't. You happen to be town anyway, but you are not literally confirmed town. Just metaphorically confirmed town.

However, I am. Not figuratively. Actually, literally. Confirmed town. Because scum would not pick two of the same number, period. And you're voting me.

[Ranger]

Hows about you give me your input about the way the day is shaping up?

It's called "read my dang posts".

What the HECK do you

think

I've been doing?

lilith is town, period.
You are town.
kirroha is town, period.
KainTepes is a townread.
Aneninen is the closest thing to being confirmed town possible without technically being confirmed town.
Firebringer and Godz are both confirmed town.

The scum are therefore within {Maxous, Persivul, beeboy}, and between a cop and a lynch we can get the alignment of two of them, which automatically wins us the game.
Lynch one, if town we've won the game because the other two are scum. If scum, cop a second. If town, lynch the third, we win. If scum, lynch and we win.

It's literally that simple.

The only question.
Literally the

only

question.
Is which two the scum are and which two are town.

I can see Maxous-beeboy.
I can see Maxous-Persivul.
I don't see beeboy-Persivul.

So the solution is to lynch Maxous, who is scum either way.

[Ranger]

Is there a reason the two can't be evil?

There's no particular reason, I just don't see the interactions matching that well.
beeboy could be scum individually, sure, and Persivul could be scum individually, sure, but I simply don't see anything that links them together.

I

do

see things that link Maxous to beeboy, and I DO see things that link Maxous to Persivul. Obviously, only one combination can be right, but {Maxous, beeboy} or {Maxous, Persivul} are more likely to me than {beeboy, Persivul}.

[Ranger]

Only thing that worries me about Ranger is the insistence that she's conftown when scum could have made a wifom gambit, but that can be sorted out later.

I wasn't in the game at the time.

For me to be scum, it would have had to be a gambit pre-arranged by BOTH Jal AND Aristophanes AND Syndesis

all

agreeing to the plan.
Tell me, are all three the gambiting type?

That's literally what it'd require. Not just one player, but three to all agree. I don't have any games with Jal or Syndesis, but I do have games with Aristophanes, and every game I've played with Aristophanes, Aristophanes has had an

extremely

conservative scumplay. So, not scum.

You can also ask yourself the same question of A Drowned Kernel and Golden Robster. If you think their scumplay is anything other than risky, then...yeah. Firebringer and Godz are both confirmed town.

[Ranger]

Oh.
I thought I was already doing this.
Guess not.
VOTE: Maxous.

[Ranger]

Which one?

[Ranger]

Which one?

[Ranger]

Point is that the 2s are less suspicious than some other numbers, but they shouldn't be considered cleared.

A 2 was killed last night.

You honestly think that a scum in the 2s (which would, necessarily, be either myself or Firebringer), would intentionally narrow down the pool of 2s, rather than shoot at, oh, I dunno, the

claimed cop

?

Yeah, no.

Scum remains whichever of {you, Maxous} is not the cop clear.

[Ranger]

Oh, and yeah.

I forgot about it until Anen's post reminded me.

I did in fact get a fruit, though I haven't asked Errant if last scum could both action and kill.

[Ranger]

Also, lynching lilith is absolutely stupid. She's town.
We lynch her with her one result, and bam, scum just kill Persivul and we're left with no clears the next day.
Force the scum to kill her, lynch Maxous today. The time to talk about lilith being scum is if she continues to live even after all probable cause for her to be so has been removed entirely.

VOTE: Maxous.

[Ranger]

Also, obviously,

V/LA over Easter weekend.

[Ranger]

Lilith might be mafia 1 shot redirector. In which case she must be lynched before me or else she will mess up my vengekill.

One, I'm pretty sure vengekills are a twilight action, not a night action, and can therefore not be redirected.
Two, if she were going to use the 1x redirection, she probably would have done so already.
Three, if Aneninen's claim of mafia being unable to action and kill at the same time is correct (I've asked the mod, so should be getting a response there), she wouldn't be able to both kill and redirect...meaning she either lets your kill go through and hopes it's not on her to get a second nightkill off, OR she uses her redirect and there's only one death, as per the norm.
Four, this assumes she actually IS the 1x redirector, when she could be literally any unconfirmed role including, say, mafia cop as useless as that sounds.
Five, she's town.

So, no. Not lynching lilith.

[Ranger]

Anyone object to a hammer?

Seriously, Maxous is scum.
Maxous is seriously, seriously, SERIOUSLY scum.

[Ranger]

Scum was lynched D1. That makes it extremely unlikely that scum bussed D2.

Wrong.

The lynch yesterday was between three names, and three names only. We decisively determined that from the get-go. {Persivul, beeboy, Maxous}: one to be lynched, a second to be copped, the third to be lynched today. This was what everyone, literally

everyone

, came to the justified conclusion of. lilith was and still is not to be touched. pisskop is still likely town. Aneninen was likely town and is now confirmed town. (I got my response from the mod; scum cannot kill and act, so Anen giving me fruit last night did in fact clear him.) Firebringer, Godz, and I all share Aristodesis's number and are therefore town. kirroha is extremely unlikely scum, and even IF being scum, should never be lynched before 3p lylo. (I really shouldn't need to explain this.) KainTepes was basically the one and only person outside the three who even

could

have been scum, and he was far less likely scum than his fellow 6, beeboy.

Every player in the game came to this conclusion. Every player was able to narrow it down to you three. So the lynch was always going to be 2/3rds likely on scum. beeboy started the day pursuing

your

lynch, but when that proved impossible, he switched onto Maxous and told lilith to cop you, rather than Maxous. She did. Why do you think beeboy wanted YOU copped, not Maxous?

Scum HAD no choice but to bus. Maxous is the last scum. Scum bussed D2 because they had no option other than to bus. We had dueling scum wagons that day, where no matter what, one of them was getting lynched. beeboy initially attempted to push it onto you. Maxous initially was more focused on defending himself than on pushing beeboy. When Maxous had succeeded yet beeboy's push had failed, then and only then did Maxous start pushing beeboy and did beeboy start pushing Maxous.

[Ranger]

There are two explanations for lilith, a claimed cop, still being alive: she's scum; or, scum didn't get the doctor/roleblocker slot and are afraid that lilith is protected, so they must kill elsewhere until they hit the doc or get lilith lynched.

This, incidentally, suggests scum are within the claimed VTs, mind you, which...both beeboy and Maxous did in scummy ways. If the entire mafia team failed to grab power roles (in which case, lol pwned), then it would make

perfect

sense for them to shoot players who were unknown: Godz, Firebringer, and myself were the only three remained unclaimed as of the ending of yesterday.

For obvious reasons, this means both myself and Firebringer should avoid claiming until the day before lylo

at earliest

. Meaning, 5p at earliest. No sooner, maybe even later. (Not sure what the best strategy there would be.) If the scum don't know whether we're PRs or not, all the better.

[Ranger]

Again, draft number analysis makes sense, but it assumes all the scum went to the PT pre-game, and there's precedent for Ari not doing so.

Aristophanes, sure.

This is irrelevant, though, because Aristodesis was

a hydra

. Maybe Aristophanes wasn't there, doesn't matter because Syndesis

would

be there, and therefore the logic still holds. Scum would not pick the same number, not by careless accident and not for wifom.

lynching kirroha is literally the worst thing you could do right now. stop it.

I'd say lynching a town cop is slightly worse than the vengeful, but Maxous is right here. The logic is simple.

If kirroha is town, he is a town vengeful.
That is not a role scum want in lylo.
So, scum may shoot kirroha before then, saving us the trouble.
If kirroha is town, then we lynch elsewhere. We find scum, great, game over, we win. We don't, we eventually get down to 3p lylo.
If kirroha is a scum vengeful, then in 3p lylo, we lynch him and win, no harm done.
If kirroha is a town vengeful and scum don't kill him, then we lynch him and he gets to vengekill, effectively acting as if a hammer vote in a cross-voting situation, a 50/50 chance at winning rather than 33/66.

So in no scenario would it be beneficial to lynch kirroha before 3p lylo.

[Ranger]

I could lynch Ranger as she ALSO pushed for my counter-wagon while saying jack about beeboy.

Said jack about beeboy?
Funny, that's not how I remember it.

In fact, I seem to recall my iso has not a single positive mention of beeboy the entire game. Almost as if he was always a scumread even on D1.

[Ranger]

I would also like to point out the wagons on D1.

On D1, we had {Aneninen, Aristodesis, Maxous} as possible lynches.
We know beeboy decided to bus Aristodesis.
Why?

Why did beeboy bus Aristodesis if there were TWO viable town counter-wagons to his scumbuddy?

The simplest and most logical answer is: to save someone else. beeboy was under little danger at the time, so it was not to save himself. So who? We know he wasn't saving Aneninen because Aneninen is now confirmed town. The only possible explanation is that beeboy bussed Aristodesis to save Maxous.

[Ranger]

Now

can we lynch Maxous?

VOTE: Maxous.

[Ranger]

Am I wrong for saying the scum was here?

Don't forget: Maxous

offered

to hammer but withheld from doing so.

That's 10x

worse.

[Ranger]

Ranger. Although doubled-up draft, away from both scumlynches.

Not really. By the literal VCA, sure, I was off the lynch wagons. But my vote was on beeboy for half of D1, the other half being on Maxous. You can't really fault me for voting the wrong scum player.

Game should be over, now, so you'll have the proof.

[Ranger]

VOTE: kirroha
can we stop being twats about this and just end the game?

Objectively, the stance which gives us the highest chance of winning is:
-Lynching you. If you're town, let the scum kill who they please.
-If kirroha lives, lynch kirroha in lylo. If kirroha is town, kirroha has a 50/50 shot.

This, because of draft order still being a very likely relevant factor.

The lynch should not be on {Firebringer, KainTepes, Ranger} because of it unless we have hard evidence that says one of us is scum. (Ergo, all the people outside of us three are dead.)

That leaves you and kirroha.
If we lynch kirroha today and kirroha is town, then she has not one, not two, not even three, but FOUR targets to chose from, and if she shoots wrong, we lose the game.
If we lynch kirroha tomorrow and kirroha is town, then she has just two targets, with two additional flips to give her info.
Yes, she could be scum. Yes, if she is scum it's irrelevant, we lynch her and we win. But we should do so in lylo. Not now.

I actually think at this point kirroha is more likely scum than you if I'm honest. But objectively, she should not be lynched today.
It would also objectively be a mistake to lynch the three players who are the closest thing we have to mod-confirmed town right now, via draft order picks.
Ergo, objectively you are the correct lynch because there's a

chance

you are scum, and we'd auto-lynch kirroha tomorrow.

So,
VOTE: pisskop.

This is the objectively sound play.

[Ranger]

1586 reads as insincere, as does 1587.

Go die in a fire.

VOTE: pisskop

I hope you aren't town.

This, combined with the fake-sounding 1595, and the reversal into this

VOTE: Ranger

Hmm

Also looks like scum.

So, I do think kirroha is scum.
I also don't think she should be lynched today.
If I'm wrong and she's town, then lynching her makes her the game-decider today.
If I'm wrong and she's town, then letting her live either forces scum to kill her or make her the game-decider tomorrow when there's fewer players alive.

It's only if I'm right that lynching her would be harmless, and at this point I do not hold that level of confidence.

At all.

[Ranger]

Like...kirroha is agreeing to be the lylo lynch tomorrow, but she basically doesn't have any choice to.

The plan looks like it's "lynch a player who should be conftown, kill another, then go into lylo with two players who aren't conftown and a conftown player known for being impulsive". (It only takes one impulsive vote not on kirroha for a scum-kirroha to win.)

For the record: said impulsive player could be either KainTepes OR Firebringer; they both fit that profile. The player who

doesn't

fit that profile is me, which makes me an excellent choice for trying to lynch.

[Ranger]

The play should be to lynch Ranger.

Scum killed in the 2s. This does not fit the profile of someone who is scum in the 2s.
Scum had the chance to kill lilith, but didn't take it. Why? Because they were hoping the town would lynch her? (Well, they did, but speaking of reasons why I'm not scum, I was

firmly

against that.) No, most likely, it's because they feared a doctor would be protecting her. That tells you they didn't get a doctor.

This is something that is most likely to happen if scum already

had

a PR, one useful to them. We know scum didn't get cop because lilith did. We know that pisskop killed a town player with his 1-shot role, which he claims was a PGO; maybe it was, maybe it was a vig, doesn't matter, either role benefits scum. (This is why he is possible scum, albeit less likely than kirroha.) We also know that kirroha has to be vengeful. But kirroha was against claiming. kirroha tried not to claim for as long as possible. This is because kirroha feared that, once outed, she would become an automatic lynch.

Screw whatever grudge you have against me and play to your win condition.

[Ranger]

But you are also most likely scum out of everyone here

Absolute BS.

The logic behind the draft pick conftown has been explained many times before. Nobody has given any reasonable counter except "but...maybe WIFOM!"
I was one of the first players to push beeboy as scum. Maybe not the first, but of the five players alive, I'm pretty sure I was among them. Every single mention of beeboy in my iso is negative. I also voted him D1. I have an established history of not treating my scumbuddies in this manner.

I have also been the player correctly establishing the best options for the town. I was against lynching lilith. I was against lynching Aneninen. I townread him before he became conftown for what it's worth, too. Furthermore, players who died that were not confirmed town held townreads on me: Red Magic was townreading me. Godz was townreading me. Both of them died when there were objectively better scum nightkill targets, which tells you their reads must have factored into their death most likely.

I could not be farther away from scum. So, yes. Voting me is playing against a town wincon. It is the second-worst objective lynch (kirroha objectively being the worst), and by the evidence arguably the worst lynch subjectively.

[Ranger]

You going into my impulsive behavior again, want to say "Firebringer has messed up the last 6 games of his in LYLO"

Oh,

believe

me, I'm holding back from such comments, Firebringer. But I am speaking objectively.

Objectively, KainTepes is known for impulsive, irrational voting. He very well could instantly vote someone other than kirroha in lylo.
Objectively, you have a bad record in regard to fast votes in lylo. I know it's a sore spot for you, that's why I'm trying not to shine a spotlight on it too much, but regardless of how much you don't like that part of your past play, it still remains an objective fact, and relevant to my point. And my point isn't "Firebringer is an impulsive voter". My point is "kirroha is most likely setting up the scenario she has the greatest chance of winning in".

So, if the subject comes up again, it won't be on my end; it'll be because you're highlighting it, like you are with that post, since I wouldn't have to type this all out and mention it if you hadn't mentioned it there. In other words: I'm not trying to make it a subject of discussion. If you don't bring it up, I won't either. You have my word. This post of mine is discussing it, because your post was discussing it, but if we both make the mutual agreement to drop it, this post can be the last.

[Ranger]

You are just doubt casting literally everyone.

What?

I'm doing literally the

exact opposite

of that.

I'm calling kirroha, one person. One and only one person. Specifically, kirroha. As scum.

I think there's a

chance

pisskop could be scum. This is true both objectively and subjectively.

I do not think you are scum.
I do not think KainTepes is scum.

I think kirroha is scum.
I also think kirroha is objectively the worst possible lynch for today in spite of subjectively probably being the game-ending lynch.

[Ranger]

ranger is going to be lynched

I find it no coincidence the two players who most need me dead are the two players voting me.

I also find it no coincidence the two players least likely to vote me over other players are the two players voting me.

can you say oppurtunistic active lurking much

Not really, no. Active lurking implies a lack of content.

I have very strongly given reasons. That is the polar opposite of active lurking.

silly ranger, theory wifom is no sibstitute for solid play

Sure! It is, however, a very solid augmentation to already-existing solid play!

RANGER I AM GOING OT HAMMER YOU,, GIVE US YOUR DEFENCE NOW

I have been giving my defense the whole time.
-I was among the first of the living players to suspect beeboy. I pushed him until he was lynched.
-I have consistently been giving accurate reads in key areas. I townread lilith and told you not to lynch her. Lo and behold, she was the town cop. I townread Aneninen when there was interest in lynching him. Lo and behold, he was the town fruit vendor. I even had an initially-correct townread on Persivul which I only began to doubt after he began pushing all the people he literally should not have been pushing, and even when I suspected him my suspicion on other players (e.g. beeboy) was stronger.
-Basically every town player nightkilled has held a townread on me. Red Magic townread me. Godz townread me. Aneninen townread me.
-I share a draft pick with Aristodesis. We 100%

know

that scum had talk during the pregame. This means they were able to coordinate draft picks. This means they would not have an identical number with another scum player. As a result, not only can I not be scum, but neither can you nor Firebringer. It can only be pisskop or kirroha.
-Both pisskop and kirroha are pushing me as scum for literally no reason. They're just saying "lol, Ranger's scum", and not actually giving any evidence. One of them has to be town, yes, but the other is scum.
-Furthermore, they would know this fact. They are trying to mislynch someone who quite literally is confirmed town, because without lynching a confirmed town player, scum cannot win this game and they both know it.

I literally cannot make a stronger case than that. I am town by interactions. I am town by reads. I am town by virtue of setup. You cannot ask for a better trifecta of reasons I am town. And yet they're voting me anyway, because they literally

need

my lynch, and both you and Firebringer are lining up to give it to them.

[Ranger]

-I was among the first of the living players to suspect beeboy. I pushed him until he was lynched.
-I have consistently been giving accurate reads in key areas. I townread lilith and told you not to lynch her. Lo and behold, she was the town cop. I townread Aneninen when there was interest in lynching him. Lo and behold, he was the town fruit vendor. I even had an initially-correct townread on Persivul which I only began to doubt after he began pushing all the people he literally should not have been pushing, and even when I suspected him my suspicion on other players (e.g. beeboy) was stronger.
-Basically every town player nightkilled has held a townread on me. Red Magic townread me. Godz townread me. Aneninen townread me.
-I share a draft pick with Aristodesis. We 100% know that scum had talk during the pregame. This means they were able to coordinate draft picks. This means they would not have an identical number with another scum player. As a result, not only can I not be scum, but neither can you nor Firebringer. It can only be pisskop or kirroha.
-Both pisskop and kirroha are pushing me as scum for literally no reason. They're just saying "lol, Ranger's scum", and not actually giving any evidence. One of them has to be town, yes, but the other is scum.
-Furthermore, they would know this fact. They are trying to mislynch someone who quite literally is confirmed town, because without lynching a confirmed town player, scum cannot win this game and they both know it.

I literally cannot make a stronger case than that. I am town by interactions. I am town by reads. I am town by virtue of setup. You cannot ask for a better trifecta of reasons I am town. And yet they're voting me anyway, because they literally need my lynch, and both you and Firebringer are lining up to give it to them.

To reiterate: the only way for them to win is to lynch one of {Ranger, Firebringer, KainTepes} and hope that the player within {Firebringer, KainTepes} they do not nightkill will serve as a town beard in lylo, not voting them and if kirroha is town allowing kirroha the chance to shoot the survivor instead of pisskop. This would particularly be true given that you'd be the hammer vote. The hammer vote on someone who is

literally confirmed town

. That would gain you suspicion in lylo, pure and simple, which would be leverage to push a mislynch.

[Ranger]

Also, as a final point in my defense: do you not think it's odd that literally

everyone alive

thinks I am scum?
Do you not think that, if I were actually scum, at least one player would think I was town?

This goes back to nightkills.

If I were scum, then I literally would have been shooting myself in the foot by, consistently, killing players who townread me.

But no.

Every player who townread me ended up either lynched (e.g. Maxous) or nightkilled.

That is no coincidence. It's orchestration. The scum player literally needs me lynched today, because it's the only way they can win. So their kills make perfect sense for removing my support network, removing the players I am working well with.

[Ranger]

y r u defending yourself so hard

Because I'm trying to do the thing you're

claiming

to do, but

not actually doing

. Namely,

were mechanical clearing the game

MY posting is doing this.
Firebringer, KainTepes, and I are all cleared by draft picks.
This means the scum are within {pisskop, kirroha}. This means, mechanically clearing the game,

one of you should be lynched

.

And yet, you're pushing

my

lynch, which opens up a can of worms. Namely, it's not lynching scum, and it's getting rid of a player who is confirmed town and actually being REASONABLE confirmed town at that. I think. I make decisions objectively. This is, always, 100% true of me in games. The same cannot be said of EITHER Firebringer or KainTepes.

its awful odd of you when we do have a vengeful lined up, and guarenteed at leastone of the two people who 'need you dead' are town.

Yes. You have a vengeful lined up in theory. In

theory

. But theory requires willing participants. And, bluntly, I don't believe you both are. Yes, one of you is town. That's the incredibly sad and pathetic part. One of you is playing

exactly as scum should be playing

. I don't even know which of you it is anymore. But one of you is the town beard helping the scum, the other is the actual scum.

I have suffered TOO MANY mislynches recently.
For these exact.
Stupid.
Pushes.

Intent to hammer Ranger
Claim now or forever hold your peace.

Dude, I claimed VT ages ago. You think if I had a PR I wouldn't have had it be successful by now?

I'm a replacement, so I don't know what my predecessor picked; it wasn't included in the replacement PM, and I never bothered to ask. If it's that important for you to know, I can ask the mod, but it'd require you waiting for the mod to get back to me on that.

[Ranger]

You, know, even though it was an evident part of this setups philosophy since as long as Ive been here, I thought you would be the one to break it if anyone.

Problem: I was not in this game at the beginning.

Ergo, I could not have broken the philosophy.

But sure.

I'll lynch kirroha.

VOTE: kirroha.

[Ranger]

shoutout to Ranger in specific for buckling down and trying to pull it out; i definitely didn't have you on my radar when i died.

That was the general idea behind killing you then, so that you'd

stay

that way. :P

goddamn i was so close to picking jailkeeper. man that'd have ruled.

No kidding. It'd have told me that role wasn't in the game. (You were dead N1 no matter what unless you as a JK lucked out and blocked beeboy.) Know how much I was worrying about it?!? I was terrified. (I actually was afraid Firebringer was a tracker.)

I'll go cry now ;____;

If you think

you

want to cry, just think about

me

.

This was probably my best scum game yet, and I

still

couldn't pull out the win. I couldn't even get to lylo. :(

Ranger did horrible with the night kills.

Two of them I didn't have any choice on: Persivul was confirmed town. Aneninen was confirmed town. Red Magic needed to die because they were shutting down literally every mislynch I needed (most importantly, Maxous) and they had a decent chance of being a PR compared to others in the list. The only kill which was not 100% an objectively good kill was the Godz kill, and even there, we were all goons, who had all chosen the same two roles; Golden Robster had claimed a PR and many town players had noted that his play seemed different from his VT play. Knowing he couldn't be scum and trusting those people to be right (they weren't), I killed his replacement in order to make sure I could safely kill lilith.

She decided to leave me alive all game, that is funny.

Actually...about that.

The only reason you lived is because of the above: in particular, the need to eliminate Persivul/Aneninen first, and the threat of Godz potentially being a PR. I very much did not want to have you alive and kicking, because I figured you were voting me no matter what.

[Ranger]

ranger, you gotta be more active as scum.
at least selectively so.

pisskop, if this was your reasoning, you can burn in hell.

My activity is 100% consistent across all games: once or twice a day, I will post until caught up. I then leave. This never changes. It has been constant, consistent, and never-changing. Any day without me posting in this game is a day I also did not post in

any

game. Any day I posted in this game is a day I also posted the exact same amount in another game. Activity cannot, and will never be able to, be used to read me. I am always active at the same times. Every day, I come in at what's usually night, post, then go to bed typically. I wake up, maybe post, and then the cycle repeats. Use whatever activity tell you think is valid from this game on another game and I guarantee you I flip town there. I can't control when I have access. I can only control what I do in the times I have access.

If

that's

what you mean, then sure, I apologize for the rant above, but explaining this

literally every game

, town, scum, whatever, gets really old, really fast and yes I have been lynched for it as town and flipped town because of it.

now you know why veterans of mafia dont share notes and such; to hide themselves.

Why the hell do you think I prefer being a minimalist in the first place? :P :P :P

I know this! I use this!

you played good, but the cards were stacked against you. :/

<3 <3 <3

[Ranger]

You go do that thing where you take generic advice and spit on it

Wasn't attacking the advice.

Just VERY angry at the suggestion that my activity, which never ever changes, could be seen as alignment-indicative when it's not.

With the tip about not sharing notes being my default play and me joking about it.

The rest of your advice was actually valid and I'm taking note of it. <3

[Ranger]

Lategame, sure, but early game, he relied a lot on the draft order clearing him.

[Ranger]

Ranger, your #45 at the Scum QT was sweeeeeeeeeeeet! ^_^
By the way, you did a good job. After losing both buddies you managed to go on in a terrible situation.

<3