Micro 590: RETURN OF THE CARD CZAR [GAME OVER]

[lane0168]

For page 2, it is. Normally, I'd totally agree with you. But having a scum lean or town lean on

page 2

? That's pretty definitive.

Clearly its not. It changed in the same page. How can you still think that's definitive?

[SarasaKat]

You mean a town discarder? Idk why a VT discard is more scummy than a PR discard

On mobile, self reminder to follow up on this. But the low down is VT discards are scummy. I will gather the actual numbers when I get home tonight.

Sweet. I've never played this kind of set-up where you choose roles, so that might be apart of my confusion here.

@lane It was an actual opinion on someone's alignment on page 2. That's pretty damn early to have an opinion. If she would have said "I think he's leaning scum", that'd make a lot more sense to me than "I think he's scum" or something of that nature. To kind of compare it to Ircher's read list, it's like putting someone in the red category almost as soon as they post rather than the orange category. That make any sense?

[lane0168]

Yeah, and I have no issues with people making their reads clear and known to everyone as early as possible. I'm not sure why anyone would have issues with people being transparent

[SarasaKat]

Yeah, and I don't, either. Just seems unsubstantiated to think someone's in that red category that early on.

[BlueTrin]

I think Sara does not like the wording, she is ok with the contents but the wording seems to convey the image of someone very sure of his reads.

I think being open is in general benefitting the town: there are a few exceptions if you are trying to make someone slip for example ?

[lane0168]

No it doesn't convey that at all. There is a huge difference between saying I think sarasakat is scum, and pressing the wagon like I know that are scum.

[Ircher]

Has anyone actually LOOKED at FS? Cuz, it doesn't seem like it.

[Persivul]

I've read the thread but haven't ISO'd. Here's where I am:

Lane and Ranger look town. in my experience they each prefer playing town to scum, their discards are consistent with that, nothing in their play has pinged me, and I largely agree with Ranger's reads.

Blue - I suppose as a Hated we have to lynch him today, but we're holding off to continue to get reads - is that correct?

FS - lean town - playing well and discard supports it, although not nearly as much as he seems to think.

Lowell, Ari - null, haven't done much.

Sarasa, Ircher - scummy, but really my eyes were glazing over as I read their posts.

[BlueTrin]

Blue - I suppose as a Hated we have to lynch him today, but we're holding off to continue to get reads - is that correct?

That is my understanding as well.
I guess in this setup I should not have given my status because we do not know how many scums we have.

[Ircher]

FS - lean town - playing well and discard supports it, although not nearly as much as he seems to think.

Show me where he's playing well.

All I've seen is him discussingdiscards (which imo mean nothing right now) and jumping on me for an RVS vote.

[Fire Starter]

Role/Discard

Micro 450
Scum/Town
Scum/VT
Scum/VT
Town/VT
Scum/Town
Town/Scum
Town/Scum
Town/Town
Town/Town

Micro 438
Town/Scum
Town/Town
Scum/VT
Town/Scum
Town/Town
Scum/Town
Town/VT
Scum/VT
Town/Scum

Micro 424
Scum/Town
Town/Town
Town/Town
Town/Scum
Town/Town
Scum/Town
Scum/Town
Town/VT
Scum/Scum

Micro 383
Town/Scum
Scum/VT
Town/Scum
Town/Scum
Scum/VT
Town/Scum
Scum/VT
Town/Scum
Scum/Scum


Based on the 4 most recent "Great" games, all of which function similarly, these are the results:

Out of a total of 36 roles 15 were scum and 21 were town. On average each game had 4 scum and 5 town.

Out of the discards, there were 13 scum roles discarded and 23 town(10 of which were VT).

There were a total of 10 VT roles that were discarded. Out of those 10, 3 were discarded by town, and 7 by scum.

Town discarded town roles 10 times and scum roles 11 times.

Scum discarded scum roles

2 times

and town roles 13 times.


So what does all this mean? Give us straight numbers Fire Starter! Okay okay:

Out of the discarded

Scum

roles,

Town

discarded

Scum

roles

85%

of the time. 11/13.

Scum

discarded

Scum

roles

15%

of the time. 2/13.
If someone discards a

Scum

role, odds are they're

Town

.

Out of the discarded

VT

roles,

Town

discarded

VT

roles

30%

of the time. 3/10.

Scum

discarded

VT

roles

70%

of the time. 7/10.
If someone discards a

VT

role, they have good reason to be suspected of being

Scum

.

There is more you can infer from this but those are the two biggest things that always seem to be consistent.

Let's look at the current discards:

Fire Starter -

Werewolf Bus Driver

Ranger -

Werewolf

Persivul -

Two-shot Governor

Ircher -

Vanilla Townie

BlueTrin -

Treestump

lane0168 -

Mafia FBI Agent

Lowell -

Werewolf FBI Agent

Aristophanes -

Vanilla Townie

SarasaKat -

Vanilla Townie

Fire Starter

,

Ranger

,

lane0168

, and

Lowell

all discarded

Scum

roles. Odds are they are all

Town

.

Ircher

,

Aristophanes

, and

SarasaKat

all discarded

VT

roles. They have a more than slight

Scum

lean. Odds are they are not

Town

.

So that leaves us with:

Fire Starter
Ranger
lane0168
Lowell

Persivul
BlueTrin

Ircher
Aristophanes
SarasaKat

[Fire Starter]

That took a while to write up. My hands are tired. Had to manually crunch all the data.

Any questions?

[Fire Starter]

Also, I'm not saying that all of this is 100%, but this is definitely a starting point, and considering how the people in green suspect the people in red, it's no surprise.

[Ircher]

I like the FS wagon for starting with a dayvig:

VOTE: FireStarter (Wait, is that L-1?)

It wasn't real.
It was obvious as everyone ignored it. You voting me for that reason seems like a reason to hop on my wagon for no reason.

Responding to everyone else later when I get home.

GUYS LYNCH IS LITERALLY PLURALITY THERE IS NO L-1 DAY ENDS WHEN HOST ANNOUNCED IT WOULD END, REGARDLESS.

Day can still end early in a Lynch. The only thing plurality does is prevent a no lynch of it goes to the deadline. 5 votes ends the day.

Spoiler: Fire ISO

1. 14, 15, 17, 23, and 25 is all about discards. -

Explain to me why these discards are so alignment indicative, as I am the only one who don't see them useful at all right now. First of all, you get dealt 5. Second, two are alignment and 2 for role. So, this means a player who discarded mafia may have had anywhere between 1 and 5 of that alignment; same with town. Even if you discarded mafia, you may still have 0-4 remaining; aka not alignment indicative. Same goes for discarding a town card. Discards tell us nothing right now, and yet you are trying to use them for alignment indicative purposes. Remember, players choose which two they use for role and which for alignment.

2. 42, 44, , and [post]52 all have to deal with my vote on you. -

Number 1: Am I not allowed to make RVS vote on the

2nd page

of the thread just because

you

say we're out of RVS? Talking about discards imho is about as good as RVS, so I don't see what the problem was with making an RVS comment. Instead, you jump as soon as I put a third vote on your wagon: You suddenly act as if

I'm

scum who is trying to quicklynch you based on an RVS topic. Is that

not

an over-reaction --> 3 votes and then sudden FoS of last player who votes you. Then, in 52, you are twisting events by stating I put you at L-1 which never happened. Blue went so far as checking that to make sure. That's really overreacting, just because there

might

be 4 scum, a vote (that wasn't L-1 anyway) that might be L-1 and was obviously RVS is completely wrong. Let me ask you:

If there are 4 scum, then would they not just quicklynch as soon as they get the chance?

. I don't fully understand how these games work, but not telling town that they're in LyLo on D1 sounds a bit bastard -- so I'm going to assume you are overreacting when there is no need to --> if there were 4 scum, and Blue is town, we should've lost by now. So, yes, you're the one jumping on me. In regards to my vote --> it was originally an RVS vote, but when you decided that it was scum trying to get a quicklynch in, that's when it became serious.

3. More discard speculation and PR fishing in 69; aka stuff that isn't going to help town win.

4. 70 - Votes me cuz e wants answers to the questions he asked. -

I don't have a clue what he's referring to here. The only questin he asked me was was it an RVS vote which quite frankly, it should be obvious it was so. The fact that I not only have to spell it out to him but to the entire game both alarms and aggravates me.

5. 79 and 81 - More discard speculations. Also, appeal to probability (since he threw out a mafia role, less likely he's scum) -->

That would be true if players had their alignment cards chosen by random (aka, deal 5, discard 1, then alignment is chosen random from 2 of the cards and so is the role). In this case, players choose which cards for alignment and which cards to use for their role.

6. 113 and 116 - Finds my reaction an overreaction & is proud cuz he has "found scum easily" -

First of all, whenever I put notes into spoilers like this, they are as close to the truth as you're getting from me. While my own thoughts are in them, they are normally marked in italics; anything not in italics is generally 99% objective. That's not blowing things out of proportion; that's the opposite: I am ensuring I am NOT just tunneling the player but have decent evidence to support my reads. Second of all, okay maybe my reaction was an overreaction. Two votes + one person who effectively had their vote on me. In this case, all 3 of you are serious about voting me. Now let's see... look at

your overreaction

in 52 -- Then, your wagon consisted of two RVS votes and 1 serious vote, and you were

just as afraid

of being lynched as I was. Now, out of the two, who is more justified in thinking that their lynch was a possibility? Objectively, it would be me, as people don't tend to quicklynch a wagon that's mainly an RVS wagon. That is

not

an exaggeration, this is the bare facts: we were both in a similar position and we both overreacted, but I was more justified in my overreaction as your wagon was mainly RVS whereas mine, while only 2 real votes, had effectively 3 serious votes at that point.

7. In response to 122 --

No, I haven't, but what does that have to do with anything. I have two completed games, both are linked in my sig and you should really check them out. Normally, I'd say it be better for you (aka, optional), but with your tunnel on me, I'd say you need to read my two completed games. If meta and discards are used for alignment purposes in this game, then you better do me a favor and actually look at my meta.

8. 123 - Basically states I'm lying. -

Well, I guess those game notes were a complete waste of 2 hrs as no one has bother to glance at them. As I said above, notes like this are as unbiased as they get: they have a foundation on facts and i link to those facts. Just cuz I mention you a lot does not mean I'm tunneling. It just means you've done the most noteworthy stuff. The fact that you are saying my arguments

are not

rooted on facts when they

clearly

makes me extremely suspicious of you. Admit it --> You are guilty of confirmation bias, as anyone who isn't blindly sheeping you but is rather thinking for themselves would clearly see that even if my arguments are wrong or off, they are

clearly based on facts

. And don't tell me that that isn't the case cuz this game scumreads me. They are jyst following what you and Ranger are saying, as if they were not, they would at least express the same level of suspicion towards you as they do to me.

9. 149 is about why discarding town roles is scummier than discarding scum roles again. -

About those numbers, etc you plan to show --> They better be well backed and you better make it clear that VT discards

significantly

increase the chance a player is scum compared to other discards. Anything below 3% higher chance is

not signifucant

.

10.

This covers about 70% of the posts in your ISO. And, of that remaining 30%, about 75% is a one liner. So in other words, ISOing you does not look at all townie in ny shape, form, or way. What's the underlying facts for this point? It's 1-9 above.

This is also my case as to why we should lynch FS. That is, unless someone gives me a good,

objective

reason why FS is town. I've yet to get one as of yet.

[BlueTrin]

FS this is a very good post, how can we trust that you didn't manipulate the numbers ?
What is your guess about the number of scums in this game ?

[Fire Starter]

FS this is a very good post, how can we trust that you didn't manipulate the numbers ?
What is your guess about the number of scums in this game ?

I gave you the game numbers to look them up if needed.

In any game scum can be anywhere from 1-4. If there is 4, it's typically two separate factions.

Given the discards, I'm guessing 3-4 scum. The opening post said to try and pick scum roles so I'm leaning more towards 4. Town usually doesn't win in these game but with this being pretty obvious from the discards, this miiiiight be an exception.

[BlueTrin]

FS this is a very good post, how can we trust that you didn't manipulate the numbers ?
What is your guess about the number of scums in this game ?

I gave you the game numbers to look them up if needed.

In any game scum can be anywhere from 1-4. If there is 4, it's typically two separate factions.

Given the discards, I'm guessing 3-4 scum. The opening post said to try and pick scum roles so I'm leaning more towards 4. Town usually doesn't win in these game but with this being pretty obvious from the discards, this miiiiight be an exception.

That means you should lynch me on the first day then.

[Fire Starter]

If you're town, then no fucking way. If you're town and there are four scum you're screwing us by offering yourself up.

Yes, outing yourself early was bad, but I have a feeling we need as many town as possible. If you are kept alive, then that is indeed bad, but if there are two factions, they still have to compete with each other and can't exactly sync up with killing you.

This sucks actually. You need to be gone from the game regardless of alignment, but if you're town then you need to be NK not lynched.

[BlueTrin]

If you're town, then no fucking way. If you're town and there are four scum you're screwing us by offering yourself up.

Yes, outing yourself early was bad, but I have a feeling we need as many town as possible. If you are kept alive, then that is indeed bad, but if there are two factions, they still have to compete with each other and can't exactly sync up with killing you.

This sucks actually. You need to be gone from the game regardless of alignment, but if you're town then you need to be NK not lynched.

I was at risk of being lynched accidentally, I saw myself being voted by you and being put at L-1 by other people.

[Ircher]

FS this is a very good post, how can we trust that you didn't manipulate the numbers ?
What is your guess about the number of scums in this game ?

Not sure what you're referring to.

I'm not saying FS is lying, he's probably right about those numbers, but I was thinking more theoretical possibilities of being scum when discarding town --> Theoretically, the discards prob. mean nothing.

Okay, @FS
Assuming you're town and I'm town, who'd you lynch next and why?

[Fire Starter]

Assuming you're town and I'm town, who'd you lynch next and why?

If I wasn't scum reading you hard, then I would lynch Aristophanes or SarasaKat. Both are likely to be scum if you're town. Aristophanes isn't talking as much as he did in the last game when he was town and we went head to head so that irks me. SarasaKat is sort of like you and pointing out small things that people say and blowing them out of proportion.

However, I think all three of you are probably scum so...yeah.

[Fire Starter]

I stand corrected. Out of the three of you, statistically, two of you are scum.

[Ircher]

I just looked at Ari's ISO, he hasn't contributed anything at all; is that normal for him?
VOTE: Ari

Also, don't like how Lowell wanted to end the day quickly by lynching me -- I'm against quick lynches.

[BlueTrin]

I just looked at Ari's ISO, he hasn't contributed anything at all; is that normal for him?
VOTE: Ari

Also, don't like how Lowell wanted to end the day quickly by lynching me -- I'm against quick lynches.

You are referring to this post ? I didn't like it either.

hadn't even read just above my post. Eh, this is awful flailing from ircher. textbook "ugh I'm mad you're voting me for no reason without letting me explain it's so unfair i'm taking my ball and going home."

It's over. Let's end it for this guy. worry about sara or whoever tomorrow.

[Ranger]

VOTE: Ircher.