Open 624 Fire and Ice - Fire Mafia Wins

Shinobi · Post Post #1050 (ISO) » Mon Mar 07, 2016 4:29 am

I feel far more confident lynching Fire than Viva regardless though.

ISO · Post Post #1051 (ISO) » Mon Mar 07, 2016 7:14 am

From your POV, Fire is in {S_S, Viva} and Ice is in {Fire, Aristo}, right?
So the town will have to decide between each at some point. Even if Firebringer is lynched today, you or Ari will have to choose between me and Viva tomorrow and I'm far less confident in that going well. So vote Viva today, and Fire tomorrow.

Shinobi · Post Post #1052 (ISO) » Mon Mar 07, 2016 1:08 pm

In post 1051, Something_Smart wrote:From your POV, Fire is in {S_S, Viva} and Ice is in {Fire, Aristo}, right?

No.

Even if Firebringer is lynched today, you or Ari will have to choose between me and Viva tomorrow and I'm far less confident in that going well. So vote Viva today, and Fire tomorrow.

I don't think this 1v1 is as definitive as you think it is.

Shinobi · Post Post #1053 (ISO) » Mon Mar 07, 2016 1:16 pm

I might be misreading the situation horribly but my issue is in picking between Ari/RC - there are a number of posts that I felt were infinitely better coming from RC than there were from Ari. I can't remember a single time Ari was strictly against lynching anyone. His most recent post isn't even good - it's just another inconclusive recap of VCs that accomplishes nothing and makes him look like he's doing something while he afks during the endgame.

Viva La Gloria · Post Post #1054 (ISO) » Mon Mar 07, 2016 1:39 pm

I will vote Aristo on the condition that if I'm not alive in endgame everyone speedvotes SS.

I'm positive that SS is ice mafia.

Shinobi · Post Post #1055 (ISO) » Mon Mar 07, 2016 2:17 pm

In post 1054, Viva La Gloria wrote:I will vote Aristo on the condition that if I'm not alive in endgame everyone speedvotes SS.

I'm positive that SS is ice mafia.

You're positive that anyone who votes you is mafia.

ISO · Post Post #1056 (ISO) » Mon Mar 07, 2016 4:43 pm

In post 1054, Viva La Gloria wrote:I will vote Aristo on the condition that if I'm not alive in endgame everyone speedvotes SS.

I'm positive that SS is ice mafia.

Shinobi, we need to lynch this today. I do think it's wise to sort Fire/Ari before we lynch, but Viva is definitely scum. Besides playing exactly like scum would (i.e. saying blatantly antitown things like this), he's playing to his scum meta and he's flailing.

I really need to see more from Fire and Ari today before I can effectively sort them, however.

Firebringer · Post Post #1057 (ISO) » Mon Mar 07, 2016 4:47 pm

In post 1047, Something_Smart wrote:Viva- Fire
Fire- probably Ice
Aristo- probably town, possibly Ice
Shinobi- likely town, maaaaybe Ice

I don't know how much I trust this.
Since you were considered a likely scum possibility.

Also, a no lynch might be best at this moment.

Firebringer · Post Post #1058 (ISO) » Mon Mar 07, 2016 4:50 pm

In post 1048, texcat wrote:
Day 4, Vountcount 2
Viva La Gloria (1):
Something_Smart

Something_Smart (1):
Viva La Gloria

Not Voting (3):
Firebringer, Aristophanes, Shinobi

With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch or to no lynch.

Deadline
: Monday, March 14, 2016 9:00 am (Texas time)

Countdown to deadline
: (expired on 2016-03-14 09:00:00)

5 left. If we no lynch. Worst case two town die thats 1v1v1. You no lynch there and hopefully scum take each other out and its game.

5 left. We lynch. We mislynched a town. We both scum hit players. Worst case its Scum v Scum tie.

5 left. We lynch. Flips scum. Tomorrow its 2v1. Worst case we mislynch then and we lose.

I kinda feel better with a no lynch. Scum are more incentive's to hit the other I think.

Shinobi · Post Post #1059 (ISO) » Mon Mar 07, 2016 4:50 pm

In post 1056, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 1054, Viva La Gloria wrote:I will vote Aristo on the condition that if I'm not alive in endgame everyone speedvotes SS.

I'm positive that SS is ice mafia.

Shinobi, we need to lynch this today. I do think it's wise to sort Fire/Ari before we lynch, but Viva is definitely scum. Besides playing exactly like scum would (i.e. saying blatantly antitown things like this), he's playing to his scum meta and he's flailing.

I really need to see more from Fire and Ari today before I can effectively sort them, however.

I don't really see how that can be construed as antitown.

How exactly is he playing to his scum meta? Forgive me if I missed it.

Firebringer · Post Post #1060 (ISO) » Mon Mar 07, 2016 4:53 pm

In post 1058, Firebringer wrote:5 left. If we no lynch. Worst case two town die thats 1v1v1. You no lynch there and hopefully scum take each other out and its game.

I want to go with game theory here for a minute:
So we go in the best interest of all parties in a 1v1v1 its in best interest for both scums to hit each other rather than the town. Hitting the town with the other scum alive results in a tie. No hitting will result in them losing for sure or at worst tieing.

So only results are a scum lose (tie) or town win.

Firebringer · Post Post #1061 (ISO) » Mon Mar 07, 2016 4:55 pm

Lynching right now is bad. We are essentially in MYLO from what I have gathered.

Shinobi · Post Post #1062 (ISO) » Mon Mar 07, 2016 4:59 pm

We can add "suggesting horribly antitown plans" to the list of things that I hate about FB.

Firebringer · Post Post #1063 (ISO) » Mon Mar 07, 2016 5:00 pm

In post 1062, Shinobi wrote:We can add "suggesting horribly antitown plans" to the list of things that I hate about FB.

Explain how my plan is awful.
If we mislynch right now we essentially lose.

Even if we lynch right, we are LYLO tomorrow.
We have better luck from where I stand for scum to hit each other than town getting a right lynch. Especially when you consider me your strongest scum read.

Shinobi · Post Post #1064 (ISO) » Mon Mar 07, 2016 5:03 pm

In post 1063, Firebringer wrote:
In post 1062, Shinobi wrote:We can add "suggesting horribly antitown plans" to the list of things that I hate about FB.

Explain how my plan is awful.
If we mislynch right now we essentially lose.

Even if we lynch right, we are LYLO tomorrow.
We have better luck from where I stand for scum to hit each other than town getting a right lynch. Especially when you consider me your strongest scum read.

Because nolynching ensures that we have no chance of hitting scum and gives us no control over the gamestate?

Firebringer · Post Post #1065 (ISO) » Mon Mar 07, 2016 5:05 pm

In post 1064, Shinobi wrote:Because nolynching ensures that we have no chance of hitting scum and gives us no control over the gamestate?

Who gives a shit about control over the gamestate, I have just told you its in scums best interest to hit each other right now at night.

If they don't, they will be in a 1v1v1 in which case town will not vote and then they 100% have to hit each other or lose/tie.

Shinobi · Post Post #1066 (ISO) » Mon Mar 07, 2016 5:08 pm

In post 1065, Firebringer wrote:
In post 1064, Shinobi wrote:Because nolynching ensures that we have no chance of hitting scum and gives us no control over the gamestate?

Who gives a shit about control over the gamestate, I have just told you its in scums best interest to hit each other right now at night.

If they don't, they will be in a 1v1v1 in which case town will not vote and then they 100% have to hit each other or lose/tie.

That's assuming they shoot each other, and there's a variety of things wrong with that line of thinking.
The worst case scenario is that one team hasn't figured out the other and we just flat-out lose by nolynching.

Is this really all you have to bring to the table after doing nothing all this time?

Shinobi · Post Post #1067 (ISO) » Mon Mar 07, 2016 5:10 pm

No, wait, hold on. I miscounted because I can't math.
That's not as terrible as I thought it was.

Firebringer · Post Post #1068 (ISO) » Mon Mar 07, 2016 5:11 pm

In post 1066, Shinobi wrote:That's assuming they shoot each other, and there's a variety of things wrong with that line of thinking.
The worst case scenario is that one team hasn't figured out the other and we just flat-out lose by nolynching.

Is this really all you have to bring to the table after doing nothing all this time?

Can you explain their incentive to shoot town right now? Explain it.
Lets say for instance they decide, I am not going to try to shoot scum tonight.

Then they are BOTH in a LYLO tomorrow.

Or lets imagine one of them hits scum one hits town. Then its 2v1 and we have the power to end it tomorrow in LYLO.

WHY SHOULD WE LYNCH TODAY?
Since clearly no one knows what they are doing.

Firebringer · Post Post #1069 (ISO) » Mon Mar 07, 2016 5:12 pm

In post 1068, Firebringer wrote:
In post 1066, Shinobi wrote:That's assuming they shoot each other, and there's a variety of things wrong with that line of thinking.
The worst case scenario is that one team hasn't figured out the other and we just flat-out lose by nolynching.

Is this really all you have to bring to the table after doing nothing all this time?

Can you explain their incentive to shoot town right now? Explain it.
Lets say for instance they decide, I am not going to try to shoot scum tonight.

Then they are BOTH stuck tomorrow with a 1v1v1

Or lets imagine one of them hits scum one hits town. Then its 2v1 and we have the power to end it tomorrow in LYLO.

WHY SHOULD WE LYNCH TODAY?
Since clearly no one knows what they are doing.

Correction.

Shinobi · Post Post #1070 (ISO) » Mon Mar 07, 2016 5:13 pm

FB, plan aside - who is scum?
What's the likely outcome of us nolynching, IE who's going to be left and who would you be going after if you weren't shot?

PEdit - yeah, I realized what you were saying after the fact.

Firebringer · Post Post #1071 (ISO) » Mon Mar 07, 2016 5:14 pm

In post 1070, Shinobi wrote:FB, plan aside - who is scum?
What's the likely outcome of us nolynching, IE who's going to be left and who would you be going after if you weren't shot?

PEdit - yeah, I realized what you were saying after the fact.

I honestly thinking Aristo and Viva right now. But I am not 100% sure. Which is another reason for me not wanting to lynch. If I am wrong, its game over for town now.

Shinobi · Post Post #1072 (ISO) » Mon Mar 07, 2016 5:16 pm

Like, the concept of doing nothing just seems so bad.
But it kind of seems like the best course of action now?

It's so

weird

.

Shinobi · Post Post #1073 (ISO) » Mon Mar 07, 2016 5:23 pm

Okay, so I'm open to the idea of nolynching here. I'll think it over for a while and see if there are any more downsides but it doesn't seem like a totally dead line here.

ISO · Post Post #1074 (ISO) » Tue Mar 08, 2016 12:40 am

In post 1059, Shinobi wrote:
In post 1056, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 1054, Viva La Gloria wrote:I will vote Aristo on the condition that if I'm not alive in endgame everyone speedvotes SS.

I'm positive that SS is ice mafia.

Shinobi, we need to lynch this today. I do think it's wise to sort Fire/Ari before we lynch, but Viva is definitely scum. Besides playing exactly like scum would (i.e. saying blatantly antitown things like this), he's playing to his scum meta and he's flailing.

I really need to see more from Fire and Ari today before I can effectively sort them, however.

I don't really see how that can be construed as antitown.

How exactly is he playing to his scum meta? Forgive me if I missed it.

Suggesting speedlynching in LYLO is antitown.

RC's scum meta is to pick arbitrary reads and be super confident on them. You can see it best in Open 623, where he whiteknighted the crap out of me and then tunneled Titus to death. His play regarding you here reminds me of that, as although he's flipped multiple times on you he's always seemed super confident, way more that he should be.

No lynching does not feel like the correct option here. The odds that the scum kill each other are fairly low, and besides that the best case is just 3p LYLO which we could reach almost guaranteed by lynching Viva, except we have less control over who is in it. If both scum shoot town, the best play for them is probably to lynch the townie and get a draw.

Fire, what are your reads?