Micro 594: One Night Ultimate Werewolf 5 (Game over)

[podoboq]

I know that voting against Alex is against town wincon because I know that Alex is conftown. I can't endorse town putting half of their votes on conftown. I've yet to see a vote split work, and I'm 100% that Alex can no longer be the Werewolf, but technically there is still a chance that lane could have robbed Alex, so if you guys are insistent on splitting, I'm voting lane. The split should really be between lane and GL, because Alex 100% can't be the Werewolf since I switched him, and lane technically has a 1/8 chance of being a Wolf now.

GL, you can see the logic in this. I trust that you believe I'm Troublemaker and see that you're cornered, looking for any out to come out of this game alive, but that's not happening. Your only out is that you were robbed. If you want a chance to win, 1/8 is the best you can get, and you only get it if we split on lane. You'll die too, but at least this way, if you were robbed, we kill the Wolf and you get the win. The alternative is two town getting lynched if you were robbed.

VOTE: lane

[Fire Starter]

UNVOTE:

I will break the setup after work.

[podoboq]

I don't want to lay out the split, because I don't want to appear like I'm trying to seed it in my favor here. I'll let somebody else handle it if they want to.

[GuiltyLion]

Wtf? We're not voting Lane. He's as good as town given the crumbs. If he robbed Alexcellent and had the foresight to crumb PF (who he wouldn't know is town) ahead of time then he can have the win IMO.

Why are you so against a vote split between myself and Alex? Regardless of my alignment, town will win. The only reason you would be fighting it so hard is if you're the minion like I expect.

[podoboq]

Wtf? We're not voting Lane. He's as good as town given the crumbs. If he robbed Alexcellent and had the foresight to crumb PF (who he wouldn't know is town) ahead of time then he can have the win IMO.

Why are you so against a vote split between myself and Alex? Regardless of my alignment, town will win. The only reason you would be fighting it so hard is if you're the minion like I expect.

If I robbed a Werewolf, I would claim that I robbed another player. (Assuming I knew what crumbing was at the beginning of the game) I also would have crumbed that player to help my defense. He claimed robbing a basic villager, then when I pressed him to say who he robbed, he wouldn't claim until after PokerFace confirmed that he was a basic villager. That's an easy claim, and he could have just not revealed the crumb if PokerFace turned out to be something else.

I'm not saying I think he robbed Werewolf, I'm just saying that's still an outlying possibility. I know that Alex isn't a Wolf anymore, because I switched him, so either you are stuck with Wolf, or it was robbed from you. If we have to split votes, I'm inclined to split on the two players who I know actually have a chance of being Wolf.

Seriously, GL, I want you to really think about it. You've seen how I've played this game. What has a higher probability? That I'm Minion and 3dr is Troublemaker, or that Robber stole the Werewolf.

Why are you so against a vote split between myself and Alex? Regardless of my alignment, town will win.

We lose if we run your split and lane stole the Werewolf from Alex. If that happens, we're lynch two townies with your plan.

[GuiltyLion]

It's not an easy claim. If PokerFace was a minion or a partner wolf, Lane is SOL. Also, lane stuck to his guns when claimed to be troubled, other than his desperate Lowell fakeclaim when we thought shos was scum and he was cornered, which also makes it look far more likely that he robbed a villager.

Yes there is an outside possibility lane robbed the lone wolf and has been playing masterfully, 3 steps ahead of everyone else, but the possibility is so small that it's not worth considering or planning for. The problem is there's no way to do a 3 way vote split without scum being able to fuck it up. The two way vote split I proposed is foolproof, and you're fighting it because you know it will make you lose. You weren't worried about lane when we were talking about going to nightfall and everyone lynching me earlier.

[podoboq]

It's not an easy claim. If PokerFace was a minion or a partner wolf, Lane is SOL. Also, lane stuck to his guns when claimed to be troubled, other than his desperate Lowell fakeclaim when we thought shos was scum and he was cornered, which also makes it look far more likely that he robbed a villager.

Yes there is an outside possibility lane robbed the lone wolf and has been playing masterfully, 3 steps ahead of everyone else, but the possibility is so small that it's not worth considering or planning for. The problem is there's no way to do a 3 way vote split without scum being able to fuck it up. The two way vote split I proposed is foolproof, and you're fighting it because you know it will make you lose.

You weren't worried about lane when we were talking about going to nightfall and everyone lynching me earlier.

Because I didn't want to split the votes at all, and I'd rather just vote the player that by all logic is probably scum. But if we have to split the votes, we should split them correctly.


lane didn't crumb PokerFace or claim that he robbed a Villager until many players had revealed their roles. Let's look at his mindset if robbed Alex. He had to build a lie. He needs to claim Basic Villager, and needs to pick a player who hasn't revealed (because at that point, nobody had claimed Basic Villager.)

The following two posts are basically right next to eachother, and it's possible that I accidentally clued lane into the good claim.

Well then the number of villager claims would not add up, correct? which would narrow the lynchpool.

Anyway instead of putzing about theory, we should play the game. Lowell, do you intend on claiming?

If there is a buried villager and a buried werewolf, that's three basic claims. Even if there are four basic claims, that narrows your choice at best, to 2v2. 50/50

Robber here. Took a villager card. I think I'll hold off on who it was for now?

So he picked between Lowell, PokerFace, 3dice, and you, because you hadn't claimed. Alex wasn't a choice because he robbed Alex, and knew he was a Werewolf. He then crumbed his choice, and by the way, it did happen in that order. The probability of at least one of them claiming Basic is basically 100%, and if PokerFace came out as something else, he can just not bring up his crumb. If PokerFace is another Werewolf, he's actually vouching for him by claiming he's a Villager. If PokerFace is a Minion, he's fine. PokerFace is also the easiest of those four names to anagram, which is tiny, but it's not nothing.

[GuiltyLion]

I'm not going to get into an argument with a bunch of WIFOM about how lane happened to rob the one card out of 8 that was wolf, made a bunch of brilliant devious plays, and then never claimed wolf when he thought shos and him were swapped, when it's far more likely he just truthfully robbed PF and crumbed it. If you want to vote lane, go for it. Alex will get lynched.

I'm just waiting on lane/shos/3dr to come in here, see that you're panic bsing, agree to the vote split, and then we'll be good to go.

[podoboq]

I'm not going to get into an argument with a bunch of WIFOM about how lane happened to rob the one card out of 8 that was wolf, made a bunch of brilliant devious plays, and then never claimed wolf when he thought shos and him were swapped, when it's far more likely he just truthfully robbed PF and crumbed it. If you want to vote lane, go for it. Alex will get lynched.

I'm just waiting on lane/shos/3dr to come in here, see that you're panic bsing, agree to the vote split, and then we'll be good to go.

I'm not saying it's likely that lane robbed the Wolf. I'm saying that it's about 1/8. I know that the chance of Alex as Wolf is 0%.

The question for the rest of the town is if they think my chances of being the Minion here are higher than lane's odds of robbing Alex. Apparently we know your answer.

[GuiltyLion]

I mean strictly speaking your chances of being Minion are about 50/50, so

[podoboq]

I mean strictly speaking your chances of being Minion are about 50/50, so

I think that when people evaluate the way I've played this game, they will see that that's not true. I don't like that this all comes down to my credibility as town, but it appears it has.

[podoboq]

I'd also like to point out that lane has been silent ever since suspicion has shifted away from him.

[3dicerolling]

Lane is not scum you dolt.

[3dicerolling]

Well technically you are not a dolt because you keep trying to switch the lynch to someone else not your partner, but to anyone town, you should see by play, reactions, and claim that lane is town.

[3dicerolling]

I like the vote splitting idea. As long as alex is lynched, we should get a win.

[lane0168]

I'd also like to point out that lane has been silent ever since suspicion has shifted away from him.

Lol Podo trying to make it look like he no longer believes me to get Alex not lynched is troubling to say the least. He's trying every possible thing to keep Alex alive.

For the sake of everything Podo, why do you care if we split between guilty and Alex? If you're so sure it's guilty? But the rest of the town is unsure, the only logical people to split is guilty and Alex.

[lane0168]

And here I was thinking this game would be tied up in a neat little bag.

VOTE: Nightfall

Despite all of that, Alex wasn't going to be lynched. Nor does he know who the minion is. I'm fine with believing Podo as town.

This is anti-town.

There's no reason not to split the votes and lynch both of us.

Alexcellent - GL, 3DR, lane, shos
GL - Alexcellent, podoboq, Lowell, Fire Starter
anyone else - PokerFace

This is a GUARANTEED WIN for everyone except whoever is actual minion and actual scum

[podoboq]

I'd also like to point out that lane has been silent ever since suspicion has shifted away from him.

Lol Podo trying to make it look like he no longer believes me to get Alex not lynched is troubling to say the least. He's trying every possible thing to keep Alex alive.

For the sake of everything Podo, why do you care if we split between guilty and Alex? If you're so sure it's guilty? But the rest of the town is unsure, the only logical people to split is guilty and Alex.

Because I know Alex is town, and I'm not comfortable with town throwing four votes at conftown. It opens up too much risk. If we're going to split, it has to be on the two potential scum, no matter how unlikely you are. I'd rather not split at all, because it's so risky, but if we're gonna do it, we better do it right.

[Fire Starter]

Shos, Lowell, Pokerface, are you guys willing to accept that Podo is town to the extent of risking the game on it?

[Lowell]

Not really. But I'm willing to sheep you, so if you say so I'm game.

[GuiltyLion]

Fire Starter, there's literally no reason not to split the votes between myself and Alex. Podo panicking like this indicates that he is the minion.

[GuiltyLion]

Also his line about town throwing 4 votes at conftown is bogus. If he's town, only 2 townies would be voting "conftown"

[GuiltyLion]

And he also literally scumslipped, let's not forget

[Fire Starter]

Guilty, you don't know youre alignment and I'm happy to do a split vote, most likely with you and Lane though.

[shos]

Shos, Lowell, Pokerface, are you guys willing to accept that Podo is town to the extent of risking the game on it?

Yes.
I'm pretty damn sure about this. podo's play was brilliant if he's minion.