Ahhhh, you three are having a love-in, but at least one of you is a naughty scummer.
34, computer programmer.
I can't wait up any longer, hopefully when I get back tomorrow Eggman will have claimed (in a perfect world all 4 of you will have...hint hint).
Pedit: I re-read everyone's ISO over the weekend, apart from yours smith (because it looked like a novel!) so I already have my thoughts. But I'll wait for Eggman.
PEdit2: Java makes me cry. I hate Java...HATE it. C# for the win!
In post 1102, KickAssAndGiggle wrote:Ahhhh, you three are having a love-in, but at least one of you is a naughty scummer.
By my calculations, this is not necessarily true
In post 1102, KickAssAndGiggle wrote:...Pedit: I re-read everyone's ISO over the weekend, apart from yours smith (because it looked like a novel!) so I already have my thoughts. But I'll wait for Eggman.
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times...
Damn it, I thought Ircher was the better lynch for that day. Sorry!
With that said, I
FoS YawningAngel
.
He's consistently been at the bottom of my reads (if for no better reason than gut), and he was my #2 pick yesterday. Since I started the mislynch, I'm gonna try and get this one right.
Also, I claim VT. I'm gonna do something after this post.
Eggman's Read List: MYLO edition
Smith: Because we all townread you because you seemed the most towny. But, while writing this post, I realized; why are we taking Smith for granted? (Don't lynch him though, I still say YA)
KAAG: I still feel that with his efforts to be the town leader that he's someone I can put my trust in (although mislynch happened.)
SiW: She's been here the entire game and has given a town-like feeling from her posts. From what Shannon said, we might rank her lower because she did that defense thing. IDK, I'm not really sure.
YA: Rivalry! Eh, more like one side poking holes in the other while the other doesn't do anything, but I consider it a rivalry nontheless. I believe he's the scummiest player remaining, and so I FOS him (voting would let the mafiosos hammer real quick, if he wasn't a mafioso).
In post 1106, Eggman wrote:Ninja: What are you implying, Smith..? Do you think that KAAG and I are the scumteam?
I'm implying that I don't know, and that an Egg-KAAG scumteam is a possibility (as is YA-SIW, YA-KAAG, Egg-SIW, etc.). Two of you are scum, two of you are not. Depending on who claims what, the battle lines should be clarified a bit.
By Matrix6, we can conclude that:
A: there is a Doctor in this game, or
B: there is a BP in this game. Since there has not been a night without an NK in this game, I will conclude that our remaining PR is the Bulletproof. We can also confirm that there's no Hooker.
2 Mafiosos, 1 Tracker, 1 BP/Doc, 3 VTs.
UTL, Ircher, Thor, and I are the VTs. That leaves one VT remaining.
Who among us is most likely to be the BP? I'm gonna say Smith.
He's been a strong town presence since he's came in, and he hasn't been afraid of being NK'ed. Seems to me that's how a BP would play the game, since they have more protection than the rest of us.
That leaves {KAAG, SiW, YA} in the pool of Mafiosi and VT.
My guess is: SiW is the last VT, and the scumteam is YA and KAAG.
SiW has taken this game easier than the rest of us, and I think that her green PM would be the reason why. I mean, that's how I would do it, and thinking inside the other person's head usually works!
KAAG, I'm taking with the Smith thing I said in my last post: just because a player is widely townread, it doesn't mean that you can take it for granted. Shannon said that her readlist was her intuition, but upside-down: if that's the case, she thought he was the scummiest. I don't think it's uncommon for one mafioso to gain trust by the town and/or a leadership position, while the other does their own thing. Plus, it would mean the scumteam is one experienced player and one newbie.
Well, that's my take of it.
I'll wait until all claims are in to get into anything else. Please do the same. I don't want scum team to have notice of who thinks who has which claims. Especially given day chat.
Well that changes my perspective!
Now then, we can't have four VTs, so... raise your hand if you're lying?
Spoiler: Scumteams I think are possible
YA + KAAG (this is the one my gut is telling me)
Smith + KAAG (this feels like the 'backup' even if we don't have that- I don't feel as strongly about this team but we should consider that it exists. Is "Too Townie to Be Town" an acceptable argument?)
I really don't feel like the team is YA and Smith.
In post 1122, Eggman wrote:Well that changes my perspective!
Now then, we can't have four VTs, so... raise your hand if you're lying?
Scumteams I think are possible
YA + KAAG (this is the one my gut is telling me)
Smith + KAAG (this feels like the 'backup' even if we don't have that- I don't feel as strongly about this team but we should consider that it exists. Is "Too Townie to Be Town" an acceptable argument?)
I really don't feel like the team is YA and Smith.
(Quote modified to remove spoiler)
If KAAG is scum, why didn't scum!KAAG counter claim doctor?
1) On Day 1, Eggman left SIW (doc) off of his read list
2) On Day 2, SIW (doc) didn't show much interest in killing Eggman
3) SIW (doc) has been involved in both mislynches, everyone else just 50%
4) Eggman's posts early today (that he really shouldn't have made as either alignment) had KAAG green and SIW (doc) yellow in the first, but then SIW (doc) is likely VT, smith likely BP and KAAG/YA likely scum team.
If I was scum, I would have counter claimed Doc and used the 4 prongs above to form a strong case for an Eggman/SIW scum-team. But...I claimed my role PM. Because I'm town.
This town has had the habit of doing things "right" but not neccessarily understanding
WHY
they're doing it. So why did we claim in the order that we did (least suspect to most suspect in the eyes of our most recent mislynch)?
So scum couldn't pull this very trick!
Because smith ALSO claimed after SIW, the same applies, but slightly less strongly as there was still me to come. However, if we (smith + KAAG) were a team, we'd have pre-arranged it. The only reason it applies slightly less strongly is because he has to consider that SIW is gambiting and that town!KAAG is actually going to claim doctor. (If KAAG was scum and SIW and smith both claimed Doc, the lynch would be between those two, and scum!KAAG wouldn't go making it three docs! )
There's another point too: if KAAG/YA is the team, why would scum!KAAG have allowed YA to hammer Radja like that on D1? And why would scum!KAAG be the only one who repeatedly pointed out on D2 that if we thought YA was lying, he was conf!scum?
KAAG was scum in Newbie 1864, and lost his partner on D2. KAAG had to slide through 3 mislynches against players like Copper and Dierfire. But in this game, scum!KAAG allowed his partner to quick hammer on D1, and didn't claim doc when it's the right scum move? Is that credible?
...
The scum team is:
90% Eggman/YA
5% Eggman/smith
5% YA/smith
Just using a straightforward POE. Of course this is the advantage of town blocs ( ), I don't think for even a second smith is scum due to D1/D2.
There are losses I can stomach as town and losses that annoy me. Note that you
should
be annoyed at losing: this game started on March 7th and it's now April 4th. Essentially a full month's effort has gone in.
I can stomach losing to smith if he's played an absolute blinder. I won't be "happy" but I'll cope.
I cannot stomach losing to Eggman/YA
The only thing that is up for debate for me is the order in which we lynch them. I prefer Eggman first because A) I suspect Ircher is spectating and it will satisfy him to be proven right, and B) lurking should not be a tactic that allows you to get to the final day to spread WIFOM around.
I am utterly unsurprised by the way that Eggman has YA bottom of his read lists, nor will I be surprised when YA tunnels Eggman. This team cant get a perfect win now, and the only way they even have a 1% chance in the three-way LYLO tomorrow is to go for each other today to salvage enough cred for some WIFOM.
Intention To Lynch: Eggman
...
Spoiler: Addendum - the actual case on Eggman...LOOOONG with quotes
In post 1105, Eggman wrote:Damn it, I thought Ircher was the better lynch for that day. Sorry!
With that said, I
FoS YawningAngel
.
He's consistently been at the bottom of my reads (if for no better reason than gut), and he was my #2 pick yesterday. Since I started the mislynch, I'm gonna try and get this one right.
Also, I claim VT. I'm gonna do something after this post.
Eggman's Read List: MYLO edition
Smith: Because we all townread you because you seemed the most towny. But, while writing this post, I realized; why are we taking Smith for granted? (Don't lynch him though, I still say YA)
KAAG: I still feel that with his efforts to be the town leader that he's someone I can put my trust in (although mislynch happened.)
SiW: She's been here the entire game and has given a town-like feeling from her posts. From what Shannon said, we might rank her lower because she did that defense thing. IDK, I'm not really sure.
YA: Rivalry! Eh, more like one side poking holes in the other while the other doesn't do anything, but I consider it a rivalry nontheless. I believe he's the scummiest player remaining, and so I FOS him (voting would let the mafiosos hammer real quick, if he wasn't a mafioso).
By Matrix6, we can conclude that:
A: there is a Doctor in this game, or
B: there is a BP in this game. Since there has not been a night without an NK in this game, I will conclude that our remaining PR is the Bulletproof. We can also confirm that there's no Hooker.
2 Mafiosos, 1 Tracker, 1 BP/Doc, 3 VTs.
UTL, Ircher, Thor, and I are the VTs. That leaves one VT remaining.
Who among us is most likely to be the BP? I'm gonna say Smith.
He's been a strong town presence since he's came in, and he hasn't been afraid of being NK'ed. Seems to me that's how a BP would play the game, since they have more protection than the rest of us.
That leaves {KAAG, SiW, YA} in the pool of Mafiosi and VT.
My guess is: SiW is the last VT, and the scumteam is YA and KAAG.
SiW has taken this game easier than the rest of us, and I think that her green PM would be the reason why. I mean, that's how I would do it, and thinking inside the other person's head usually works!
KAAG, I'm taking with the Smith thing I said in my last post: just because a player is widely townread, it doesn't mean that you can take it for granted. Shannon said that her readlist was her intuition, but upside-down: if that's the case, she thought he was the scummiest. I don't think it's uncommon for one mafioso to gain trust by the town and/or a leadership position, while the other does their own thing. Plus, it would mean the scumteam is one experienced player and one newbie.
Well, that's my take of it.
Eggman:
smith is BP, KAAG is scum. Also, we get to see that Eggman is NOT newb!scum or newb!town: he knows hooker is Jailkeeper, so he's definitely been around Mafia a while.
Ircher pointed out quite clearly how opportunistic Eggman's reads are on D2:
In post 978, Ircher wrote:1. In 13, Ryu asks what happens when 3 different alignments remain. -
Very strange question to ask, especially when the possibility does not exist, but nonetheless, nothing meaningful can be made of it. -
Null Indicative
2. In 25 and 72, Ryu emphasizes the fact that the UTL vote was a joke -
The only way I can say this is scummy is if I knew what prior experience Ryu had concerning forum mafia. Ryu made an RVS vote, yet then proceeds to emphasize it was RVS for strange reaons. If he had prior experience, I could definitely say that is scum indicative due to the fact he is trying to disassociate himself from the hammer. If this is his first time though, then it makes more sense, though then the question arises about emphasizing it twice. That however is answerable, as Ryu later explains he is a poor communicator. If I give Ryu the benefit of the doubt, then that means I can also take the trying to fit in part as null. -
Null-Town Indicative
(Considering the evidence, I don't think he has forum mafia experience, and if that is the case, then everything else about the posts concerning this make perfect sense.)
3. 74 - Ryu also puts an FoS on YA saying it's simply gut -
Except this part. Again, I have to weigh in the poor communicator aspect. Someone needs to remind me what the VC was at the time. If the VC was less than 3, this is
Null-Scum Indicative
; else, it is
Null-Town Indicative
. This one needs to be kept in mind though it tells little by itself.
4. 92, Ryu states he has played EpicMafia as mafioso before -
Whoops, scratch that earlier conclusion (2) and replace that with -
Nothing alignment indicative here. There are a lot of "effort" reads, but I tend to make such an association a lot too. The only thing weird is the Aero read which is based on Aero being the IC, but I don't think it's a tell in and out of itself. -
Null-Indicative
7. In 275, Egg randomly brings up fake cop and asks why is it frowned upon. -
Another "noise" question that is completely irrelevent to the conversation on hand.... This is a bit of a stretch, but is how I perceive it -
Null-Scum Indicative
8. 371 - Egg does 1) VT claim 2) State he's useless 3) Unvotes YA, his only scumread........ -
This post is by far the worse post this slot has made. The VT claim & useless comment is akin to giving up - bad start. But, the worst part is the unvote of YA, his main and only scumread, with no reason other than "I'm, uh, not feeling it anymore" - Seems VERY opportunistic in nature (isn't this about when the YA wagon began to die?) and the utter lack of confidence he expresses in his unvote makes me think he isn't really committed to it; in fact, this post gives townie points to YA since Egg opportunistically got off the YA wagon with a half reason that isn't even confident! -
Very Scum-Indicative
7. 383 - Egg is asking others about the UTL slot, etc. -
Not sure what to label this as; really, I can go either way. Scum -- Doesn't want to take an active stance & wants to avoid any blame for a possible mislynch. Town -- Confused townie who isn't good at mafia. Oh well, I guess I have to go with -
Really hard to tell; genuine, or is it a false newbie facade to try to cover up his lack of content? I haven't really like the amount of effort so far, so I'm leaning toward the latter:
Null-Scum Indicative
9. Readlist at end of D1 by Egg in 697. I will come back to this, but the interesting part i I'm a townread.
10. By 787, Egg provides an updated readlist with me as Weak Town and.... votes me??? -
Now, look at #9 again. There is no mention of me by Egg at all between the posts, but I'm suddenly deserving a vote? No, that doesn't cut it for me; when making that drastic of change of read, you need an actual reason, even if it is gut or PoE (neither of which you specify; you simply say Shannon is ranked lower (but interestingly enough have YA on the bottom tier), omgus me, and say I have an aggressive playstyle (not at all, it's analytical)) - Omgus in this case is very weak, weaker imo than gut. And what you said does not seem to match up with what you do. We can also add in the town lose attitude (we should lynch Ircher D2 then me D3 which is a town loss if you are town), we can safely conclude -
Very Scum Indicative
11. Asks me some decent questions in 935, but now I'm in the bottom rung..... -
This time, Egg is being more consistent with doing what he says, so I must -
Town Indicative
12.
Combine that with the lurking and defeatist attitude and what I perceive as not trying -
Null-Scum Indicative
That still leaves me with a strong scumread on Egg AND, it is a huge improvement over my earlier case and is imo lynchworthy.
(Quote also modified to remove spoiler)
But the absolute kicker is:
In post 787, Eggman wrote:Hello, I am back again! And probably won't pop up again 'till several hours/pages have passed.
First off, who was on the Radja lynch? SiW, KAAG, Shannon, Thor, YA.
After reviewing Shannon's posts, I don't see anything super obviously scummy. I'm leaning town on her.
Eggman's Read List: Thor Was Nightkilled, Oh No Edition
Strong Town: Smith, KAAG, Me
Weak Town: SiW, Shannon, Ircher
Low Neutral: YA
If we had to lynch someone today, I would vote YA, Ircher, or SiW. While Shannon is ranked lower in my mind, she puts a lot of thought into her posting, and I don't think I've seen any big slips. Ircher has an aggressive playstyle and has been a proponent of lynching me, and to be honest I would probably put in an OMGUS against him. I would be most hesitant to vote SiW, because while I do think she's the towniest of the Weak Town slot, others have said their cases against her.
I propose that we lynch me on Day 3, because like others have said I don't believe I'd be reliable enough to take into LYLO.
But for now, I'll VOTE: Ircher.
It speaks for itself, this one. YA, his partner, bottom, but votes Ircher.
