Newbie 1691 - Game Over

KickAssAndGiggle · Post Post #1125 (ISO) » Mon Apr 04, 2016 1:29 am

Because

SIW is conf!town
smith is obv!town
Eggman is obv!scum
I am conf!town to myself

Feel free to put your own % on smith's obv!towniness. Feel free to put your own % on me claiming VT when doc is the only sensible claim if I'm scum. But those are my figures.

Like I said POE (Process of Elimination)

Also:

In post 1072, Ircher wrote:I'm nulling my Shannon read, so quite frankly, YA, Shannon, or even SIW could be Eggs partner. KAAG & smith might be too, but I find it less likely.

shannon is dead and SIW is confirmed, so Ircher says you are most likely too. And my reading of Ircher over the weekend made me wish we'd listened to him on other matters.

SummerInWonderland · Post Post #1126 (ISO) » Mon Apr 04, 2016 1:37 am

In post 1125, KickAssAndGiggle wrote:Feel free to put your own % on smith's obv!towniness. Feel free to put your own % on me claiming VT when doc is the only sensible claim if I'm scum. But those are my figures.

You wouldn't claim doc if you thought you'd lose against me- which very well could have happened.

I have a busy day but I will post tonight expanding on this and what has been going on.

Eggman · Post Post #1127 (ISO) » Mon Apr 04, 2016 1:43 am

Wait, why would you counter claim Doc? I see absolutely no benefit in doing so, since you would just be saying "hey, if we lynch a maf kill me next".

Eggman · Post Post #1128 (ISO) » Mon Apr 04, 2016 1:48 am

EBWOP: I really don't get it. Would we lynch in Doc CC's? Is it just to try and claim town?

KickAssAndGiggle · Post Post #1129 (ISO) » Mon Apr 04, 2016 1:54 am

In post 1126, SummerInWonderland wrote:
In post 1125, KickAssAndGiggle wrote:Feel free to put your own % on smith's obv!towniness. Feel free to put your own % on me claiming VT when doc is the only sensible claim if I'm scum. But those are my figures.

You wouldn't claim doc if you thought you'd lose against me- which very well could have happened.

I have a busy day but I will post tonight expanding on this and what has been going on.

Claiming doc is the obvious scum play there vs anyone. I'd have had to back myself to win the argument, certainly, but would have done. Of course, I might have been wrong, but that perfectly plausible possibility (alliteration makes me happy!) wouldn't stop it being the right play.

In post 1127, Eggman wrote:Wait, why would you counter claim Doc? I see absolutely no benefit in doing so, since you would just be saying "hey, if we lynch a maf kill me next".

In post 1128, Eggman wrote:EBWOP: I really don't get it. Would we lynch in Doc CC's? Is it just to try and claim town?

If we had two docs in 5-way-LYLO, of course we would lynch between them. You first post is...just silly: it's LYLO! If we lynched wrong, it would be GG scum wins, if we lynched right, only the fake doc's hypothetical partner would be in the 3-way LYLO.

YawningAngel · Post Post #1130 (ISO) » Mon Apr 04, 2016 2:14 am

In post 1125, KickAssAndGiggle wrote:Because

SIW is conf!town
smith is obv!town
Eggman is obv!scum
I am conf!town to myself

Feel free to put your own % on smith's obv!towniness. Feel free to put your own % on me claiming VT when doc is the only sensible claim if I'm scum. But those are my figures.

Like I said POE (Process of Elimination)

Also:

In post 1072, Ircher wrote:I'm nulling my Shannon read, so quite frankly, YA, Shannon, or even SIW could be Eggs partner. KAAG & smith might be too, but I find it less likely.

shannon is dead and SIW is confirmed, so Ircher says you are most likely too. And my reading of Ircher over the weekend made me wish we'd listened to him on other matters.

This is a really weak argument, to my mind. Is it really more obvious that smith is town than that I'm not on Eggman's team? Of course it isn't. Your claim that smith is obviously town and I'm obviously not is based on some loose analysis of 'posting style' or 'contribution' that you think makes alignments obvious. The only fact of the matter here is that mhsmith has been scumhunting without any apparent success and I have been trying since day one to get the one person we can apparently agree is scum lynched. I don't believe for a second that my tunnelling of Eggman is anything other than exculpatory, as you should well know having read the history of this thread.

If the scum team is me + Eggman

I did not need to bus him

. Day one, we could have had a mislynch on UTL/Radja without any effort on either of our parts. Day two, I actively went out to bat for Ircher (a great lynch from scum!Angel's perspective), again trying to direct the lynch onto the person you allege is my buddy. Why? How would I possibly profit from doing so? I've really stuck my neck out to try and get Eggman lynched and I haven't even profited personally from doing so. The only way my quickhammer day 1 and my determination to see Eggman swing stack up is if I'm town and one or both of you and mhsmith0 is a scum player who's just... playing well. Being convincing and

seeming

super pro-town is not evidence, and neither you nor mhsmith0 has come up with shit in terms of actual lynches. I refuse to let you (and I'm becoming increasingly suspicious that it

is

you) get me lynched tomorrow and lose us the game on the basis of this appalling argument. If you're really so sure I'm scum, go make a real case for it.

FoS: Eggman + KAAG

KickAssAndGiggle · Post Post #1131 (ISO) » Mon Apr 04, 2016 2:41 am

I can see three reasons why you are asking me to make a case on you better than PoE:

1) You think I am color-blind and cannot read my role PM (or am simply lying)
2) You think I am wrong on mhsmith0
3) You think SIW is not confirmed as doc due to no counter

So my case is that you're wrong, you're wrong and you're wrong. And if you were town, you wouldn't be asking for a case on you to begin with.

How about you make a case on smith? Or even a case on me that isn't OMGUS?

There are two ways to scum-hunt:

1) Find the scum
2) Find the town: what remains is the scum

Option 2 is my preferred method.

YawningAngel · Post Post #1132 (ISO) » Mon Apr 04, 2016 3:33 am

Your role PM is not evidence in this argument because we can't see it. Appealing to its contents is not an argument. But yes, to spell it out, at least one of you and mhsmith is scum, meaning that either 1) you are lying about what's in your role PM or 2) you are wrong about mhsmith. Or I suppose 1 and 3) you are also lying about mhsmith.

You haven't found the town because you have not produced compelling evidence that mhsmith or yourself is town. I'm not making a case on you, merely noting that you are advancing a clearly flawed line of reasoning and that ignorance of this fact does not seem likely to me.

KickAssAndGiggle · Post Post #1133 (ISO) » Mon Apr 04, 2016 3:41 am

at least one of you and mhsmith is scum

And your reasoning is? Why aren't you scum?

(Take your time...it'll come)

YawningAngel · Post Post #1134 (ISO) » Mon Apr 04, 2016 3:45 am

Because I've been doing not-scummy stuff all game, like trying to lynch the guy we seemingly all agree

is

scum, hammering Radja, and sticking my neck out for miles to try and stop a mislynch on Ircher. Why do any of that stuff if I'm scum? It just doesn't make sense.

KickAssAndGiggle · Post Post #1135 (ISO) » Mon Apr 04, 2016 3:48 am

So trying not to look like scum isn't what scum does?

And saying you hammering Radja makes you look not scum is...an interesting POV.

YawningAngel · Post Post #1136 (ISO) » Mon Apr 04, 2016 3:51 am

If I'm not lying about why I did it, then it absolutely does. Someone else was almost certainly gonna hammer it, why stick my neck out as scum by doing something like that?

Trying not to look like scum whilst furthering the scum win condition is what the scum does. I've looked like scum whilst furthering the town win condition. If I'm a scum player than I'm really,

really

bad at it, no?

mhsmith0 · Post Post #1137 (ISO) » Mon Apr 04, 2016 3:53 am

Before we go further, I want to confirm: are all stated tv players confirming their roles? Was anyone gambiting in some odd way? Or can we get 100% on summer as conf town?

KickAssAndGiggle · Post Post #1138 (ISO) » Mon Apr 04, 2016 3:59 am

How have you furthered our win condition exactly? If you had made a case on Eggman better than "He lurks", maybe he'd have been lynched. But you didn't really want that on D1/D2...NOW you do to give yourself a chance in a 3-way LYLO.

Ircher made it clear: Egg scummiest, KAAG towniest, most likely Egg partner YA (once shannon/SIW ruled out). He made me claim last because otherwise the fake doc/BP (had we had one) claim was a thing.

Even now you're not committing: I say YOU'RE scum, you say "it's either KAAG or smith". Leaving your options open.

Trying to avoid being accountable.

PEdit: VT

YawningAngel · Post Post #1139 (ISO) » Mon Apr 04, 2016 4:09 am

I'm "leaving my options open" because I don't have perfect information. Will I pick one at some point? Yeah, I'm gonna have to. Am I gonna do it right now? No, I'm going to try and tell everyone the facts as I see them and hope that we'll make a better decision as a group if we share information efficiently. It would hardly be constructive to pick whichever of you I'm most suspicious of and then issue a hellbent denial of the possibility that the other might be scum, potentially discouraging other people from making what might be a great case on that person.

At this point you're just attempting to pin the circumstances of the game on me. What case could I possibly make on Eggman beyond 'he lurks'? There just isn't one because that's all he's done. Lurking, by its very nature as an action, prevents there even being other points to make. Now that it's too late for it to matter and Eggman has posted slightly more, yeah there is more of a case to be made on him. However, since everyone already agrees with the view I've been espousing all game, what's the use? I made the best case there was to make when it was useful, and it's spectacularly disingenuous to blame me for other people not following through on it. Or are you seriously saying that I could/should have pushed Eggman even harder than I did?

You're blaming me for my interventions not working out, but the fact that is that I have picked two major stances (Egg = scum and Ircher = town), stuck to them, argued forcefully for them, and been essentially vindicated in them. I don't see how you can spin things out as it being my fault that you (and it was largely you, KAAG) refused to listen to them.

YawningAngel · Post Post #1140 (ISO) » Mon Apr 04, 2016 4:09 am

And yes, VT

KickAssAndGiggle · Post Post #1141 (ISO) » Mon Apr 04, 2016 4:45 am

I'm "leaving my options open" because I don't have perfect information. Will I pick one at some point? Yeah, I'm gonna have to. Am I gonna do it right now? No, I'm going to try and tell everyone the facts as I see them and hope that we'll make a better decision as a group if we share information efficiently. It would hardly be constructive to pick whichever of you I'm most suspicious of and then issue a hellbent denial of the possibility that the other might be scum, potentially discouraging other people from making what might be a great case on that person.

Your making the mistake of failing to realize that all the evidence is already there, on D1 and D2. You think some grand case is going to materialize on D3 in LYLO? I have re-read (apart from smith on D1) and have seen it.

I made the best case there was to make when it was useful, and it's spectacularly disingenuous to blame me for other people not following through on it. Or are you seriously saying that I could/should have pushed Eggman even harder than I did?

Your case on Eggman wouldn't have got Al Capone lynched...

You're blaming me for my interventions not working out, but the fact that is that I have picked two major stances (Egg = scum and Ircher = town), stuck to them, argued forcefully for them, and been essentially vindicated in them. I don't see how you can spin things out as it being my fault that you (and it was largely you, KAAG) refused to listen to them.

This is patently untrue: I engaged you and encouraged you to make a better case. smith said Eggman was probably bad/lazy/newb town (can't remember exactly which) and both he and SIW just wouldn't look past Ircher. By being the only one who engaged, it becomes "largely me"? Nice try.

YawningAngel · Post Post #1142 (ISO) » Mon Apr 04, 2016 5:39 am

I think that uncertainty is inherent in the process, and that pretending to be certain simply isn't constructive. Thus, I don't.

You're acting as if there was a better case to be made, but the fact of the matter is that there simply wasn't. Eggman was inactive, and inactivity on its own is a good basis for lynching players. It was neither a weak case (that alone is quite sufficient, to my mind) nor missing any elements that would have strengthened it significantly. Quite honestly, this whole exchange feels like you're trying to set me up for a lynch on the basis of nothing in particular. Why should we even believe you're town? You seem very keen for us to accept as much uncritically.

mhsmith0 · Post Post #1143 (ISO) » Mon Apr 04, 2016 6:56 am

In post 1128, Eggman wrote:EBWOP: I really don't get it. Would we lynch in Doc CC's? Is it just to try and claim town?

There's a pretty obvious reason to consider lynching in Doc CC's, which I'll expound upon AFTER you re-confirm that you're VT. I am RE-CONFIRMING my VT role, and YA/KAAG have done so as well.

Eggman · Post Post #1144 (ISO) » Mon Apr 04, 2016 7:15 am

A re-confirmation that I am VT.

YawningAngel · Post Post #1145 (ISO) » Mon Apr 04, 2016 7:21 am

Alright then Mr. Smith, what's the flight plan?

mhsmith0 · Post Post #1146 (ISO) » Mon Apr 04, 2016 7:28 am

In post 1128, Eggman wrote:EBWOP: I really don't get it. Would we lynch in Doc CC's? Is it just to try and claim town?

Spoiler: Why we'd lynch inside the CC pair

But that's no longer relevant, since we have no CC. So instead the board is:
SIW: confirmed doc town
and four claimed VT's, two of which are scum
It obviously would have been a whole lot easier if scum had killed a VT on N2, but they didn't. Fortunately we at least have one PR left, and can use that to narrow down the list of possible scum.

As KAAG noted, there are a limited number of combinations. SIW has to consider all six potential combos, while the rest of us only need to consider three. So she gets both the privilege and the burden of being conf!town, while the rest of us have fewer possibilities to consider, but also have to deal with playing defense against accusations.

PS FWIW, I'd been reading Egg as a PR for a while now. I thought his insistence on reminding us of his being VT, and his non-involvement in the game (looking scummy enough to make scum think he was lynchable, so they wouldn't want to NK him), and his seeming gambit to start D3, were all from an "I'm really a PR" perspective. So I guess I can toss that one out the window

PPS With the board now more clearly structured, my task is to figure out which of the three possible scum teams in front of me (Egg/YA, Egg/KAAG, YA/KAAG) is the most plausible (or, alternatively, to find the most scummy person, vote him, and try and figure out the rest tomorrow). On my end, this is going to involve a good deal of re-reading because I'm really not ready to make a decision at this time.
I'll try to have some useful reads and/or questions in the reasonable near future, but likely not until tonight at the earliest.

YawningAngel · Post Post #1147 (ISO) » Mon Apr 04, 2016 8:17 am

Yeah, I'm going to go read the ISOs and see where on the KAAG/mhsmith0 fence I come down on.

mhsmith0 · Post Post #1148 (ISO) » Mon Apr 04, 2016 8:41 am

KAAG, can you link me to your most recent two town games, and your most recent two scum games? I plan to skim those to see if I can see some parallels.

@all: ignoring my turbo game (18 min. days), which I don't think is relevant, I have two completed games, one as town, one as scum.

Town: http://www.playdiplomacy.com/forum/view ... 14&t=52035 (scum was Harb and UDC, 3P was Keirador, result was a scum sweep - this was also my very first forum mafia game)
Scum: http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/thr ... alad-Mafia (scum was me, Crunkus and Calvary, result was a town win on the very last day)

Feel free to look through those if you think it's helpful. If YA or Egg has off-site completed games for me to look at, I will try and do so.

YawningAngel · Post Post #1149 (ISO) » Mon Apr 04, 2016 9:02 am

I played in some hosted on forums.heroesofnewerth.com in the 'Forum Games' section under the same nickname, but it was five years ago and I'm having trouble digging them up. Someone who's good with the search utility on there might have better luck.