Newbie 1691 - Game Over

[Eggman]

@Smith: Only reason I'm voting YA instead of KAAG is that he voted for me first. Crossing is a good tactic, no?

[KickAssAndGiggle]

I appreciate that was @Smith, but from pure theory, cross-voting here is sensible, so yes:

IF YOU ARE TOWN, YA voting you but you not getting hammered after both Smith/KAAG have logged in (SIW = clear) proves to you 100% that YA is scum. If your PM is green, you are now voting for conf!scum. Voting conf!scum when you're town is never bad.

IF YOU ARE SCUM, failing to cross-vote should make town suspect you are trying to make it hard for us to pick the 3-way LYLO tomorrow. Refusing to cross-vote on a request from the clear (SIW) would be essentially a scum claim (a towny would defy the only clear in LYLO why?), which would give the (hypothetical) Eggman/YA team away. You've pre-empted the request.


Essentially and objectively:

At least one of Eggman/YA is scum
It could be just one, or it could be both


Smith/KAAG no longer a possible scum team, so objectively left is:

KAAG/YA
KAAG/Eggman
Smith/YA
Smith/Eggman
YA/Eggman


(I hope you appreciate how objective I was above! )

[KickAssAndGiggle]

Currently Smith is still my strongest town read. so I am heavily looking at KAGG, Egg, YA and the combos of those people. BUT smith isn't ruled out.

SIW is the "King Maker" here, as she is confirmed clear. Smith and I have info on her she doesn't have on us (that she is definitely town). So she is the one who can't use PoE to narrow it down. Not only that but she won't be in the 3-way because as a clear, it's obviously unfavorable for scum to have her in LYLO. Unless she wants to vote me, I will vote as she chooses.

We have nothing to do here until SIW returns. (Unless you want to hear some terrible jokes? What do you call a one-eyed dinosaur? Doyouthinkhesawus. What do you call a one-eyed dinosaur's dog? Doyouthinkhesawus Rex.)

[Eggman]

[What do you call a board game played by computers?
A calculated Risk.
I'll be here all day, folks.]

[mhsmith0]

Prodge. Will be back tomorow. I plan to do a full re-read, and won't that be fun

[Jackal711]

VOTE COUNT 3.2

SummerInWonderland (0) -
YawningAngel (1) - Eggman
mhsmith0 (0) -
Eggman (1) - YawningAngel
KickAssAndGiggle (0) -

Not Voting: KickAssAndGiggle, SummerInWonderland, mhsmith0

Activity: Prodding

SummerInWonderland

With 5 alive, it's 3 to lynch.

Day 3 deadline is Sunday, April 17th 2016 at 6:15 pm PDT or in (expired on 2016-04-17 18:15:00)

[SummerInWonderland]

so sorry guys!
I have 3 exams in the next few days- I am done Monday night so I will be posting lots then!!
I know this is at the worst time but I really cannot be focusing on this much so I apologize and I will make up for it.

so I think one of the big things is that I didn't look too much into Eggman. In the previous days I didn't want to vote him because he wasn't very active and for me that made me think he was null. I was hoping to find the scum by catching a slip up or something and he wasn't giving anything. Since he is still here it very well could be a play... Also him posting more today could be a few things and its really hard to determine. Currently though he is someone I am really looking into and will be posting a lot Monday and Tuesday about.
There is this also this back and forth going on between YA and KAAG which is very interesting. To go forward I am trying to rule out some stuff- such as a KAAG and YA team. I think a YA/Egg is possible. There are problems with that though that I need to try to figure out... KAAG/Egg as well. It could still be YA/KAGG (that would be a tricky situation)

Smith is still my strongest town read and I am pretty confident in this. ofcourse if something jumps out at me from him I will point it out but nothing has..

I think I asked smith this once to but I was thinking about questions like why are we here over other people? why are so many widely read town players are here? (maybe one is scum?) and so on. do you have any thoughts on this stuff?
I wish I had more free time to talk about this right now but I will try to check in soon and offer up more!! again sorry guys.. exam season sucks

[KickAssAndGiggle]

No worries, your exams are clearly a higher priority than a forum game. Good luck with them!

[mhsmith0]

Really big wall post coming. MANDATORY READING.

So at this point I'm pretty sure KAAG is scum.

1) KAAG himself:
- his primary "contribution" was to town read summer and me. But that is not remotely inconsistent with a reasonable scum plan. It's EASY for scum to town read people; they already know they're town so finding the "best" town reads really isn't all that difficult.
- moreover, his town reads, especially of Summer, just seemed too easy and too certain. See 62, 115, 121,
- his UTL vote at 300: it was largely a "I don't like you how voted SIW" vote. Chainsaw defense type behavior, which now that we know Summer is town reads as buddying (as opposed to tactical defense of a scum-buddy). There was some of that wrt UTL's behavior towards me that came later on as well; subtler, but also very plausible buddying behavior.
- a lot of his other scum reads were more looking at scummy-looking behavior rather than having a meaningful theory of WHY this person was scum (here, I'll 100% disagree w/ Ircher's read) - see 77, 118
- etc.

2) Egg-YA team makes no sense. YA pushed pretty hard against Egg almost from the beginning; the only way that strategy makes any sense at all is if they're really sure they've ID'd the JK/Cop/Tracker AND that they're pretty sure that there isn't a doc who has ID'd that role (and could therefore protect it). Egg came REALLY close to dying D1; given that YA was pretty high on peoples' scum lists, AND would have gotten little to no credit for Egg's lynch (especially given 389), that's just a horrific scum strategy on D1.
BTW, this point was explicitly called out by Radja on 426, and KAAG in 884... and I have to agree with them.
Moreover, once you're down to just one scum, JK/Tracker each can hard-clear people every night that there is a kill (if there is a kill and the person jailed/tracked didn't do it, then that's a hard clear), and obviously cop can hard-clear or catch people every night as well barring a RB (and since there's a tracker, there can't be an RB).
So the only way that team makes any sense is if YA really wasn't pushing hard against Egg on both D1 and D2 (except he really was), or if they'd correctly ID'd the JK/Cop/Tracker on D1 (and if they had ID'd Shannon, she'd have died N1). So if this was the scum team, they've played a panic type game where they simply couldn't figure out how to do much of ANYTHING except bussing. Which really strains credibility. And I mean, REALLY strains credibility, given how many other plausible cases were floating around, and how close Egg came to dying.
PS I guess 980 is of note as a possible honest moment of YA being super frustrated with a scum-buddy... but it's REALLY hard to find any other evidence of a YA-Egg team.
PPS With a Egg-YA team, YA's reaction to the Thor fake lynch makes no sense either, unless he KNEW that it was fake (and given how many people were fooled, I consider this unlikely, though not impossible). If YA's scum-buddy went down, the LAST thing he would have wanted to do was to look upset over it, since he'd have been an even stronger suspect on D2. It KINDA makes sense as a pre-reaction of "I knew Egg was town so let me criticize the hammer-er"... but I'm not sure. Could be townie pissiness at a day cut short instead.

3) Dead Peoples' Reads (because they DO deserve attention)
Radja

Final reads:

Town

msmith
KAAG
Ircher
Summer
Eggman
YawningAngel
Shannon
Thor

Scum

more detail at 425

Thor
Was very suspicious of YA (his highest scum read of the three i believe, given that he voted for YA, and his point in 657 on YA was very good), and apparently town read Egg.
wrt KAAG, he basically called KAAG's UTL vote logic BS in 593 . Also pushed KAAG's passive voting at 505, and explicitly called him scum in 604, and attacked him against in 657.
I'd actually consider Thor a VERY notable NK here. Radja's last words were to lynch Thor; he was CLEARLY a plausibly day 2 ML. There's always some WIFOM, but I strongly suspect that Thor was explicitly silenced. And with Ircher gone, that leaves two people who really would have wanted him to stop talking and pushing them.

Shannon
Town reads me, SIW and KAAG at 883, thinks scum team was Ircher + YA/Egg.

Ircher

Your last read list:

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)
KAAG (95%) - Fair, unbiased, open, and actively participating and being good town. (Vague, but basically it).
...

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)
...YA (65%) - His defense of me seems natural and not opportunistic. His hammer yesterday seemed to be a newb mistake that is the result of misunderstanding how things work, making it null. More on his def: YA/Ircher was scumteam, then his defense of me would basically be suicide. If it was Egg/YA, he'd get called out for trying to bus Egg and would benefit more from trying to lynch me for the association becomes weaker. So, likely newbtown here who miswords some stuff, etc.

...

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)
Egg(-82%) - I outline the reasons why in my "The case against lurkers...." spoilered post. Yes, its cuz of lurking, but lurking isn't policy material, it can be scum indicative, so pls don't discount this as an invalid reason.

Still good?

Other than Thor, I am EXPLICITLY disagreeing with the dead town in my read.

4) Meta
Open 626 ISO
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p7655276
More confrontational, more doubting
notably:

I find it borders on insulting to say that someone is obv!town on D1. Your basically saying "I don't think that person could possibly pull this act off if they were scum."
I have great faith that there are some excellent players on this site, who can come across as "obv!town" on D1 when they are scum.

(contrary to his super quick obv town reading of summer and later d1 obv town reading of me)
Open 623 ISO
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p7644073
Another post in reads expressing WAY more doubt than he ever showed here:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p7625067
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p7625979
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p7626220
Just overall, more confrontational, more doubting, more looking like someone who genuinely does NOT know the answer to the mystery already.
Newbie 1684 (Won as Scum)
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p7687301
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p7688145 - post shows strong town reads pretty early on

Overall, there's more certainty, less curiosity, just overall more similar to his scum game than his town game.


5) Night kills
Thor seems like he was killed to shut him up. WIFOM to some degree, but it points to both YA and KAAG as people who wanted him silenced; other scum teams would have likely thought he could be ML'd on day 2. Shannon MAY have been killed for a tracker read, but it's also entirely possible that she was killed explicitly to suit KAAG's end-game. If scum!KAAG had (or thought he had) me and Summer pocketed, he wouldn't want us gone. And killing YA/Egg would be hunting in the PoE, which he REALLY wouldn't want. So that's incriminating as well; the question is whether scum team truly read shannon as PR, or if they just got lucky.

6) The "doc counter claim" issue
There is simply no legitimate reason for scum!KAAG to counter-claim doc. SIW had been the stronger town read all game, so CC'ing would be a major, and risky, stretch. We'd lynch inside the SIW/KAAG pair, and we'd probably lynch KAAG.
Plus, KAAG had been the wider town read compared to YA/Egg. So scum!KAAG would plausibly look at a VT claim as a coin flip to get the sweep (presuming that YA/Egg were about equally likely to get the D3 axe), and would be comfortable going into 2:1 LYLO against MHS + YA/Egg.
And any time I see a "oh I wouldn't do that as scum" bit, I get suspicious. When it's a dumb argument to boot, I get REALLY suspicious.

7) Re=considering reads

Third, I am not reconsidering my town reads just due to LYLO. My case on YA hinges on you being town.

vs

Quoting this because I need to respond to it in depth tomorrow. But I'll say on thing in response to point 2 now: scum never deserves to win until they've won. If Ircher flips town, I'll be resetting everyone to Null. SIW has been in on the ground-floor of both lynches: if Ircher does flip scum then A-OK but if not, we'd be mad not to at least look.

Funny how that "resetting everyone to Null" bit never really got explored. It popped up briefly in 1073... and then quickly died back down by the time we saw 1125.

PS Where I'm really struggling is to sort YA/Egg. This one is a lot less obvious than KAAG as scum IMO. I lean a KAAG/YA scum team, but I currently consider KAAG/Egg to be reasonably possible, and I need to do more work on this front before I come down with a verdict.

PPS I will certainly listen to counter arguments, but for me to NOT vote KAAG, I'd need convincing evidence of:
1) Behavior by KAAG that is NOT reasonable from a scum!KAAG perspective
2) Egg/YA team play (when currently that is incredibly difficult to find)

Barring that, KAAG gets my vote. I sincerely apologize to all the dead townies who town read KAAG if I'm wrong (feel free to yell and scream at me in post game), but I just really don't think I'm wrong.

[SummerInWonderland]

Smith I am really glad to see where your head is at!
Okay I found this really interesting- you pointed out a lot that I saw too.
One thing is the UTL case... KAGG had a lot of similar points to me but he also had some other ones (UTLs fake reaction)
The night kill stuff I think makes a lot of sense-I pointed out before how thor was questioning him and it overall makes sense to me

another thing too add to your points and something I want to get your opinion on is todays votes.
We know you and KAGG are not the scum team (you both would have voted by now and won if that was the case)
YA and Egg seem like a weird combo to be scum- why would the vote eachother in LYLO? also YA has been after Egg for a long time
this then leaves a possibly higher scum chance for KAGG because it could be KAGG/YA or KAGG/egg

also KAGG could you restate or add to why a YA and EGG scum team makes sense?

[mhsmith0]

I wouldn't worry tremendously much about LYLO behavior wrt team interactions; IMO the bigger indicators come before. In LYLO, essentially everyone in the Egg/KAAG/YA group is "scum" in the sense that they already know the answer (unless any of them think it's me), and they're mainly trying to stay alive.

Signs of team behavior in this day probably aren't impossible to find (part of why I asked the questions I did was to see if anything interesting shook out wrt team behavior), but it's really going back to earlier days where it does or doesn't show up.

IMO an Egg/YA team is just incredibly difficult to fathom given how the game went so far. I won't say it's impossible... but their prior day actions simply don't make sense as a team. Too much risk, too little upside IMO.

PS If Egg/YA were a team, them voting each other could work as distancing, to make us doubt they're together, so that even if one goes down today, the other is more plausible to survive the next day. I just don't think it's overall a reasonable team.

PPS There ARE some things I've been trying to keep an eye on wrt possible team play. I doin't think anything really jumped on my radar in that aspect so far, but I will definitely be looking again.

[KickAssAndGiggle]

I am composing a rebuttal, because Eggman/YA won't do it for me! Give me another 20 minutes.

[mhsmith0]

No rush. I'm not about to slap down a vote tonight.

[KickAssAndGiggle]

(Numbered list matches smith's in post 1233, I'll address YA/Eggman after. On the plus side, I now know you (smith) are town, and that YA/Eggman is the scum team. You'd have just gone along with me on whichever wasn't your partner.)

Regrettably, as we have a better chance of winning if we don't lynch me (i.e. we won't just lose instantly), I will have to point out the lack of strength in every point you've made (because unfortunately there is...in every one). It is not meant to be personal.


1) I don't consider any of these points meaningful. Reading people on D1 due to the comments they make and language they use is absolute standard meta here. And

me attacking UTL wasn't to buddy SIW: it was to attack UTL

, who was scumming the thread up. She (UTL) could have made that case against you and I'd have voted her for it. In fact, it was FAR more her choosing to defend her tone difference which I found ridiculously defensive, and the rapid flip-flopping between YA/SIW . And Summer was obviously dripping with towny goodness...so town!reading her is scummy why?

On the whole, I consider the entirety of point 1 irrelevant to a scum case. I find it surprising that any of the linked posts make up a case. Defending it a any harder than that seems meaningless.


2)

Egg was nowhere near dying:

You were voting Aero/Thor, and refused to vote Eggman point-blank
SIW/KAAG were on Radja/UTL and clearly not budging
Aeronaut/Thor was on you and town-reading Egg
Egg was hardly going to lynch himself.

Radja was on him for reasons that you yourself said were "policy lynch"
YA was saying "Oh he's scum" but that isn't a push by any definition
shannon was only on him because her predecessor was
Ircher pushed him to L-1, but announced a 24 hour wait

shannon voted SIW 5 hours later.

So, no. Eggman was

NOT

that close to dying, that is a false impression. Although it would have been better if he had...

There's a lot of words in point 2...but other than this, it's total WIFOM (was YA pissy at day end, or was it an act about his scum buddy?) and theory talk about trackers. Again, I can't defend it because there is little to defend: it's just not really a case.


3) Thor refused to look at my point, and called it BS.

My point was that I had seen tactical replacing before, and I pointed him to the game.

I told him it was on the last page. On the last page, I said "I tracked pignash because Lowell replaced". In the thread, I was more detailed. And at no point did Thor call me scum: he postulated YA/Ircher. He also postulated shannon as town. As I remember, everyone else was Null. Every towny died with me as a town-read (3) or null (1). Fact.

On the whole, do you think point 3 adds to or subtracts from your case overall? I consider it to be the worst part: you actively discard strong data that doesn't fit your hypothesis, which means you formed your hypothesis before collecting the data. It feels like trying to be the scum-hunter rather than winning with your team. And it's going to end badly.

Edit after reading SIW's post:

This (Thor and my argument about whether scum can be caught based on tactical replacing) seems to be a major point of contention, so I will link the thread myself:

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=64821

And here are some posts I feel support that I was right and Thor was lazy:

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p7533212
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p7536120

(By the way, that is post 70, and I already have the scum team nailed! Just saying.)

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p7542900
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p7572745
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p7588932
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p7621541


4) Meta-diving. Oh. Open 623 was White Flag and I replaced in on D2, against some of the toughest players on the site: Titus, RadiantCowbells (Viva is his alt), Karnage, Cerberus. Comparing that to a newbie game where all 4 players left with me are in their first on-site game is exactly why meta-diving needs to be done with care. Yes, my "default" position is to consider them to be more experienced, and able to fake it. No, in Newbie games, I tend not to.

Is that not completely sensible? Why not?

And as to the scum game (N1684)...if you squint, you can always find similarities. Have you ALSO looked at the swathe of differences? I feel you didn't start with an open-mind and just confirmation biased yourself into this conclusion.


5) Thor entered the game and said "I'm not re-reading". By day's end, he was scum reading YA/Ircher. Any and all towny behaviour before he entered meant nothing to him, and he was an "aggressive questioner" type of player, so I can see why any scum team would want him gone. And YA is right about one thing: shannon softed Cop/Tracker. Twice. I suspect scum-team must have been 100% sure it was either Goon/Goon/Cop (so no protection) or that YOU (smith) were BP (I thought you were on D1, but you don't discuss PRs as town).

There is objectively nothing here that supports a case on me over YA/Eggman. He was scum-reading YA: I suspect YA said "It's Thor" and Eggman said "OK" (because there's only one boss of that team...)


6) It's not just about me though: scum!KAAG has a partner. This is a play with the following characteristics:

6-1) A 50/50 between scum!KAAG and a genuine clear, in LYLO. You say we would prob lynch KAAG over SIW: both Ircher and Eggman had me higher on their lists, YA didn't give reads other than Eggman scum, smith town. You might have SIW higher, but that's nothing by itself. If the scum team is YA/KAAG, all I need is Eggman, if its KAAG/Eggman, all I need is YA. YA's case on me is OMGUS: at day's start, who knows? In Eggman's first read list, I was higher than SIW.

6-2) If I'm scum, I have a partner, and me claiming doc gives them a nice easy day. No discussion. I can self-hammer even. So in the 3-way LYLO, my partner has an easier time.

6-3) The critical part here is that it is SITUATIONAL. I HAVE to be claiming last to make it work (I was) and I have to have players who town-read me higher than the real doc (it looks like I did).

So, no, it's not dumb. It *may* not be the "only" play, but it's what I'd have done. I pointed you to the scum topic in 1684...did you not see me planning the same play there? It's not like I knew at the time I'd be defending this case is it?


7) You have a case of selective reading going on.

Ahhhh, you three are having a love-in, but at least one of you is a naughty scummer.

34, computer programmer.

I can't wait up any longer, hopefully when I get back tomorrow Eggman will have claimed (in a perfect world all 4 of you will have...hint hint).

Pedit: I re-read everyone's ISO over the weekend, apart from yours smith (because it looked like a novel!) so I already have my thoughts. But I'll wait for Eggman.

(Bold added)

I've already done what you did (OK I skimmed your D1, but I read the rest). So my reads are based on a re-read just like yours. But my case on Eggman stacks up, and is made from quotes, with short statements.


You haven't said this, but I will: this feels a bit like shannon's "could there really be two newbie scum" case. Trust me, the random number generator didn't care at all when it handed out the roles.

And it's exactly why it was a poor choice to bring Eggman into LYLO: it's much easier to make a case on someone who has posted more. More to pick on. More niggles. I mean, point 1 is all about niggles.

On Eggman/YA

Was Eggman even voting at the end of D1? No. Did YA hammer? Yes. A lynch with only one scum on the wagon, great. But it's crude: everyone should have been voting but Eggman was not. He claims VT: a VT's only weapon is their vote. He chose not to use his "only" weapon? Or did he have another weapon (his night-kill)?

And yes, I wasn't voting at the end of D2, but I was about to after asking Ircher for his final reads and getting them. Only smith saying:

Ircher, I'll give you the 24 hours you requested, although at this point it's mainly just an extended twilight due to the possibility that you might be town having a terrible game, since given your VT claim, unless you have a HELL of a case on someone else, the lynch isn't moving.

Stopped me:

Well, smith ninja'd me, so I'll leave it to him.

That post started life as the hammer!

Of course, Eggman DID vote on D1:

Alright, so here are my first feelings.
Smith - I've got a gut feeling that he's town. I trust him.
YA - like someone said before, it looks like he isn't very much talking about this game as opposed to mafia games overall? Leaning mafioso.
Aeronaut - IC. As a leader role I feel inclined to believe that he's town, even though I know he might not be. He puts in a lot of work.
UTL - Seems like she wants to help out the newbies? Leaning town.

I'll also add that wall after wall like this can be daunting to some people (both new and old players), and that's not going to help to get the others involved.

Also this.
KAAG - He, too, puts in a lot of work. Also leaning town.
Aatami - I want to see more of you. Your posts read towny but you haven't been around for a bit?
Heybox - Hey! Why haven't you been around more? I really don't have that much to look at.

Smith, Aeronaut, Eggman

UTL, KAAG

Aatami

YA, Heybox

Going off of this, I'm gonna VOTE: YawningAngel.

Then...4 posts later:

UNVOTE: YawningAngel
I'm, uh, not feeling it any more.

Although I will note that it seems to me he's getting more aggresive with every post.

I admit that I'm useless. Sorry, Ryu, hope I didn't let you down.
I haven't been scumhunting because I honestly don't have any reads.
I'm a Vanilla Townie, which may have been some logic to why I haven't been putting in the effort.
I'm not gonna vote for myself, as that's the first rule of Towniness, so somebody vote me I guess. I'm sorry. I don't want to swap out and put anyone else in this situation, whether they're new to Mafia or super experienced.

You know how I read the bit I bolded? Trouble in the scum-thread.


Has Eggman posted read lists where he had YA bottom but voted Ircher? Yes:

Hello, I am back again! And probably won't pop up again 'till several hours/pages have passed.
First off, who was on the Radja lynch? SiW, KAAG, Shannon, Thor, YA.
After reviewing Shannon's posts, I don't see anything super obviously scummy. I'm leaning town on her.

Eggman's Read List: Thor Was Nightkilled, Oh No Edition

Strong Town: Smith, KAAG, Me

Weak Town: SiW, Shannon, Ircher

Low Neutral: YA

If we had to lynch someone today, I would vote YA, Ircher, or SiW. While Shannon is ranked lower in my mind, she puts a lot of thought into her posting, and I don't think I've seen any big slips. Ircher has an aggressive playstyle and has been a proponent of lynching me, and to be honest I would probably put in an OMGUS against him. I would be most hesitant to vote SiW, because while I do think she's the towniest of the Weak Town slot, others have said their cases against her.
I propose that we lynch me on Day 3, because like others have said I don't believe I'd be reliable enough to take into LYLO.
But for now, I'll VOTE: Ircher.

Following on from his D1 activity...this is highly suspect.


Did Eggman change his reads in the space of 2 posts today? Yep:

Damn it, I thought Ircher was the better lynch for that day. Sorry!

With that said, I

FoS YawningAngel

.
He's consistently been at the bottom of my reads (if for no better reason than gut), and he was my #2 pick yesterday. Since I started the mislynch, I'm gonna try and get this one right.
Also, I claim VT. I'm gonna do something after this post.

Eggman's Read List: MYLO edition

Smith: Because we all townread you because you seemed the most towny. But, while writing this post, I realized; why are we taking Smith for granted? (Don't lynch him though, I still say YA)
KAAG: I still feel that with his efforts to be the town leader that he's someone I can put my trust in (although mislynch happened.)

SiW: She's been here the entire game and has given a town-like feeling from her posts. From what Shannon said, we might rank her lower because she did that defense thing. IDK, I'm not really sure.

YA: Rivalry! Eh, more like one side poking holes in the other while the other doesn't do anything, but I consider it a rivalry nontheless. I believe he's the scummiest player remaining, and so I FOS him (voting would let the mafiosos hammer real quick, if he wasn't a mafioso).

(And I ask, does his comment on YA read as genuine to you?)

Alright. Here's my thing.

By Matrix6, we can conclude that:
A: there is a Doctor in this game, or
B: there is a BP in this game. Since there has not been a night without an NK in this game, I will conclude that our remaining PR is the Bulletproof. We can also confirm that there's no Hooker.

2 Mafiosos, 1 Tracker, 1 BP/Doc, 3 VTs.
UTL, Ircher, Thor, and I are the VTs. That leaves one VT remaining.

Who among us is most likely to be the BP? I'm gonna say Smith.
He's been a strong town presence since he's came in, and he hasn't been afraid of being NK'ed. Seems to me that's how a BP would play the game, since they have more protection than the rest of us.
That leaves {KAAG, SiW, YA} in the pool of Mafiosi and VT.
My guess is: SiW is the last VT, and the scumteam is YA and KAAG.

SiW has taken this game easier than the rest of us, and I think that her green PM would be the reason why. I mean, that's how I would do it, and thinking inside the other person's head usually works!
KAAG, I'm taking with the Smith thing I said in my last post: just because a player is widely townread, it doesn't mean that you can take it for granted. Shannon said that her readlist was her intuition, but upside-down: if that's the case, she thought he was the scummiest. I don't think it's uncommon for one mafioso to gain trust by the town and/or a leadership position, while the other does their own thing. Plus, it would mean the scumteam is one experienced player and one newbie.
Well, that's my take of it.

Did YA really try and stop the Ircher lynch on D2? Nope:

Is there anything I can say to convince you a) of my good intentions or b) that lynching Ircher is a terrible idea?

I don't see how we're profiting by this. If we're going to do it, get on with it

If you feel that strongly about it, hammer and own the decision. If you don't feel that strongly about it, wait until my deadline is up. Cheer-leading someone else to do something you yourself don't want to do and be held accountable for is poor form.

I don't want to do it because it's a bad idea, and I'm not going to hammer a lynch I don't in any way favour just to save time. I just find this slightly excruciating to watch

I don't think I missed anything. Hardly the sort of defense someone who *really* wanted Eggman lynched would mount.


Was Eggman really close to dying D1? Nope. So there was no real risk to bussing: it's not as if YA didn't leap off exactly when it suited him!

Do we know what is going on in the scum-topic? I've seen scumteams fall out due to activity issues before (not onsite though ).

Did Eggman miss SIW off a D1 read-list? Yes. Could it be a newb mistake? Maybe.

Did he ALSO miss YA off a D2 read-list?

I've tried to put together a case, but I'm not sure what to say or what to quote that hasn't been quoted by someone else already. So, here's some stuff I don't think anyone has harped on yet.

Also it takes me a while to write this stuff because I'm not good at it

I actually do a lot of wagon hopping for fairly small reasons... It's just something I do, I temd to vote the one who has mostly recently and consistently given me scumvibes.

This feels like a fishy excuse to try and get out of the heat of that question in particular.

Hence my warning earlier, but that warning is more relevent tomorrow; we should be lynching in the following pool today:

{Shannon, Ircher, Egg, YA} in no particular order. Doubting our townreads isn't going to help us at all for today.

794, this was right before SiW voted Ircher. Why do you have yourself in your own lynch pool? Do you think you're scummy? Are you the mafia? Were you subtly encouraging SiW, Smith, and KAAG?

Fine, I claim VT.

Its lose cuz if I don't get lynched, scum aren't nking me & will prob. be able to deduce who's the pr at this point.

...You do know, VT claims are pretty much worthless 'cuz both mafiosi can claim the exact same thing

(says the guy whose only defense was claiming VT... let's move off of that)

.Going back to matrix6,

if you were actually VT that means that {Smith, KAAG, Shannon, SiW} would be the pool for mafiosi and PRs.

To do it once, maybe a mistake. To do it twice? These lists are FAKE. I called him on it but he did not reply:

Going back to matrix6, if you were actually VT that means that {Smith, KAAG, Shannon, SiW} would be the pool for mafiosi and PRs.

What about YA? Why is he not in either pool?

Then there's the odd strike-throughs (multiple), the appeals to emotion (usually scum), the "oh I'm such a newbie (but I know what a hooker is...and I play on EpicMafia)" stuff. Stuff that you kinda know isn't enough on its own, but just sprinkle it on top like chocolate flakes!

It is harder to make a case on Eggman than KAAG (if you reach ) due to him making it hard, but read what I've put: a HIGHER percentage of his actions are scummy. There's less content in TOTAL but so much more actual scum. It's hard to find any town motivation at all frankly.


Finally, let me address why they are voting each other. Simple. Because I am being

ACCOUNTABLE

and not changing my mind on smith. Why wouldn't I muddy the water and say "I nulled my town-reads and here's why <insert_spurious_reasons> smith is scum"? Again, I only need ONE person if I have a scum-partner to agree, I wouldn't need smith/SIW if I could get YA/Eggman. But I haven't done so, because I am NOT scum, and I re-read and found smith is clearly town.

I have refused to consider smith as anything but town, despite him not being clear. SIW is clear, and she is ALSO being

ACCOUNTABLE

and not changing her mind on smith.

It leaves them nowhere to hide. They either have to convince you that I am scum (although it seems you came to that conclusion yourselves ) or vote each other and hope for credit in the 3-way.


This is the longest post I have ever made on a forum, ever! That's how serious I am about us winning this.

[mhsmith0]

tldr

more seriously I'll read this tomorrow

[YawningAngel]

Will post on this this evening, need to chew it over

[Jackal711]

Prodding Eggman

[mhsmith0]

Would lol so hard if egg just wandered off during lylo. Guess we'll see if he comes back or we get a new egg.

[YawningAngel]

All my rage.

[KickAssAndGiggle]

Prodge

[SummerInWonderland]

Hey guys I will be on posting tonight!

[Eggman]

Oh no I'm still here! But on vacation, which is why I haven't spoken as much.

The 24 hour Prod timer expired before this post, which is nothing more than a prod dodge.

Eggman is being replaced.

[KickAssAndGiggle]

All my rage.

Oh no I'm still here! But on vacation, which is why I haven't spoken as much.

The 24 hour Prod timer expired before this post, which is nothing more than a prod dodge.

Eggman is being replaced.

Writing was on the wall there. Maybe his replacement can save you YA...

[mhsmith0]

prodge. will be back soon, hopefully tomorrow.

[YawningAngel]

@Jackal Am I allowed to hold off on posting my substantive case until Eggman's replacement? I have a case to make on KAAG/Eggman but obviously what they say makes a substantial difference.