Open 631 - Diffusion of Power (Over)

[duppin]

Oh sorry missed the last part of your post.

[duppin]

In any case Autti is correct, massclaiming at this point isn't bad at all.

I do however not believe people should claim their night (at least not the doctors), because then if we go into night phase the last mafia will have to either go fo the confirmed towns and risk that they might be protected or get rid of the doctor claims.
Both confirmed towns surviving would obviously be preferable.

Massclaiming roles at this point is fine, just don't claim nights. All of us are TPR's, it doesn't matter if mafia knows what exactly role we are as he will most likely have to either kill of the doctors and let the confirmed townies live or the other way around.

I'll start by claiming cop.
Kop is confirmed cop, pisskop claims cop. Lowell was cop.

That's 4 cops.

We have 3 dead doctors.

That means that the last 3 town could be:

a) 3 doctors
2) 2 doctors, 1 cop
3) 1 doctor, 2 cops


Almost50 is confirmed town, he should obviously claim last.

Autti, Ranger and Rhaegar are unknown.

[duppin]

There is no compelling argument for not massclaiming today. Hiding behind the "don't give scum info" speech is hardly valid at this point and massclaiming will only put the last mafia in a bad position, which Autti already explained. (they'll have to fakeclaim and should then at most only be able to get away with one mislynch).

[Ranger]

Ranger how about you explain exactly why I'm scum.

Rhaegar is 100% confirmed town. Sure, Rhaegar's town by play, but I actually think by Rhaegar's town by role. That means, 100%, scum are within {Autti, duppin}. [Of] them, I think there is a much stronger case for duppin being scum.

I'm a bit busy at the moment, so I can't actually compile the case right now, but if this is something you need me to actually do rather than simply taking my word for it, I can do it later when I'm not quite as busy.

[duppin]

Oh sorry missed the last part of your post.

[duppin]

I'd like to engage you when you have the time by the way.

[Ranger]

I'd like to engage you when you have the time by the way.

I'm not sure what there will be to say.

Rhaegar, if I'm right, is town.
I think Rhaegar and I both know why.
I think we also know what the other is thinking.

And scum have not figured it out.

Which is why I don't support the massclaim.

I think you are scum for it, because you need those claims.

[duppin]

Sure Ranger, sure.

I can't wait for your case on me.

Well I can do this too. Massclaiming pretty much ends the game today (if not today, then tomorrow). You simply can't deny that. I think you're scum for not wanting to massclaim since you know you're doomed in that scenario. Massclaming is perfectly valid and actually the safest play at this point. The only scenario in which it is not, is if pisskop is mafia but do you believe that to be the case? I don't.

[duppin]

Also the reason I'd like to engage you is because it feels like you're trying to avoid me. You're talking to everyone else about how "scummy" I am without addressing me directly.

[Ranger]

Massclaiming pretty much ends the game today (if not today, then tomorrow). You simply can't deny that.

I fail to see how.

There isn't a doctor claim from you or Autti. This tells me what I needed to know.

There isn't an N3 cop claim with a result on one of you.

With the given information, I already know that {you, Autti} is guaranteed to have the scum within. As a result, there's no point in massclaiming. We lynch one of you, and if the game's not over, we lynch the other the next day. So the game's over no matter what, yes, but it then becomes a point of why we would even bother massclaiming.

[Ranger]

In other words: we gain nothing from massclaiming we do not already know.

Scum on the other hand gain plenty.

[duppin]

If you think Rhaegar has a cop claim on you, he should just claim it.

[duppin]

Also we do Ranger because I know I am not scum and I think you are scummier than Autti.

My issue with your play is that your entrance felt so fake. You weren't asking yourself "who is the scum?" but more so "what if duppin is scum" and then tried to make a case based on that. I felt you were reaching with most of what you said. While I can appreciate players who are willing to consider every single possibility, this entrance was bad and seeing as I'm town hopefully you'll realise that as well. You focused so much on me for no apparent reason and Rhaegar's answer to my last question is kinda similar to what you're doing because if you think I am scum then yes what he said is possible, but how you opened is really not how a town should approach the game. They shouldn't try to focus on one and then just keep throwing reads out until it makes somewhat sense that person is scum. That is why I believe you are scum.

Massclaming is the safest play for all of us. If you are town, then yes sure you know not claiming is safer because you know your role but obviously the rest of us don't.

[duppin]

So I'm looking forward to your case as I'd like to hear it and it will give me a better read on you. Your original points were questionable as best though.

If you even want me to consider the possibility that you are town then perhaps you should work with me instead of this "me and Rhaegar are the best,". If Rhaegar has a cop claim on you he should claim. There's no reason at all not to. There is only one mafia left, there is no info to gain from waiting with a check seeing as there will be no deflection etc.

[duppin]

TL;DR:

Rhaegar if that was you softing an inno check on Ranger, just confirm it already. I considered it a possibility, but saw no reason for you not claim it straightaway as we already knew that it was most likely going to be between me, Ranger and Autti so any of pushing on each other can hardly come as a surprise.

[duppin]

Well since I have time at the moment, I might as well just post.

I think it is very important that Rhaegar confirms if he has an innocent check on Ranger. As it is now he can also later argue that it wasn't in fact a soft claim.
If he claims then Ranger is confirmed town - but Rhaegar isn't. (I personally believe he is town though).

Let's assume that Rhaegar will confirm this later. That leaves us with three confirmed town. (Ranger/Almost50/Kop).

Worst case scenario: Scum is between Rhaegar and pisskop.

This means that we will most likely end up with the last three being Ranger, Rhaegar or pisskop. Ranger would be confirmed town then.

Best case scenario (and most likely I'd say): Scum is between me and Autti.

Fairly simple, we lynch one of us today and the other one tomorrow.

Ranger seems to believe it is between me and Autti, which I also personally believe is the most likely simply because I have townreads on both pisskop and Rhaegar.

[duppin]

But in order for me to pursue the latter, I need Rhaegar to confirm it because I still find Ranger more suspicious. Her entrance didn't feel town to me at all, I'm a bit biased though.

[Autti]

With the given information, I already know that {you, Autti} is guaranteed to have the scum within. As a result, there's no point in massclaiming. We lynch one of you, and if the game's not over, we lynch the other the next day. So the game's over no matter what, yes, but it then becomes a point of why we would even bother massclaiming.

Thats not true at all.

Pisskop can be scum, and so too rhaegar.

Im yet to see an actual case against my massclaim theory.

[Autti]

sorry messed the quotes up.

That quote is from ranger, not dupping.

[duppin]

To be fair I think Ranger's point is that it doesn't really matter that much if we mass claim at this point. After doing the math (oh yeah) I'm inclined to agree. It's also fairly obvious what people are at this point I'd say. (or at least what they're going to claim).

[Autti]

To be fair I think Ranger's point is that it doesn't really matter that much if we mass claim at this point. After doing the math (oh yeah) I'm inclined to agree. It's also fairly obvious what people are at this point I'd say. (or at least what they're going to claim).

i dunno, i still think it helps as it confirms at least another person as town.

there is no downside as scum don't gain anything by knowing pr's as we already have 2 confirmed townies for lylo. so if he has to NK them to have any chance of winning, as if it goes to 3p 2town v 1 scum and they are both confirmed town... well yeah.

And if they don't NK the confirmed town players then we get 2 more cop results to work with.

game is done i think.

[MaxwellPuckett]

Votecount 4.02

Ranger [1]:

duppin

duppin [1]:

Ranger

Not Voting:

Kop, pisskop, Almost50, Rhaegar, Autti

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
Day 4 will end in (expired on 2016-04-25 00:06:48).

[Ranger]

You weren't asking yourself "who is the scum?" but more so "what if duppin is scum" and then tried to make a case based on that.

What.

My reads evolved as I was reading the thread. The changes in them were marked by clear event triggers, e.g. Kop and pisskop becoming more town post-claims, Lowell becoming more town when he towned it up, shotty becoming more scum. You remained at the bottom because I found you the player most likely to be aligned with SnarkySnowman, and later, also shotty.

Pisskop can be scum, and so too rhaegar.

Rhaegar can't be scum and if he is then I'll personally eat the lynch and accept the loss for being wrong here. pisskop

can

be scum, sure, but he isn't. In all practical terms, they're both town, by role, by play. Your post here is really "ew"-inducing.

To be fair I think Ranger's point is that it doesn't really matter that much if we mass claim at this point.

Not

quite

true. My point is that massclaim tells us nothing the guaranteed-town players (pisskop, Rhaegar, probably Almost50 because I think he's smart enough to figure out what I caught, and me) haven't already figured out, whereas it tells

you

information that you didn't have. And one of {you, Autti} is scum. So, scum gain info, whereas town already have that info.

Of course, if I'm wrong and any of the conftown don't understand what's going on and they request the massclaim, sure, I'll do it, but if it's just you two requesting it, the answer is plain and simply,

no

.

[duppin]

I'm sorry Ranger, but why do you think something advanced is going on? It's obvious that Rhaegar quoting your trust post could be a soft claim on you, but he needs to hard claim.

You also have to realise it doesn't confirm him as town, it only confirms you.

[duppin]

I know your reads were evolving, but you pinged me out really early and then you were just set on it.

Please post your case as soon as you have time.