Open 631 - Diffusion of Power (Over)

[MaxwellPuckett]

One, two, three, four. The fourth villager to be suspended over the town square was duppin, who was pointing fingers at other townspeople frantically even as his legs were kicked out from under him and one of the black-suited figures hoisted him over one shoulder. "It was him! It was her! It was all of them!" As his cries became more and more nonsensical, a few of the villagers found themselves looking away from the sight. They heard, and did not see, duppin's final moments.

"duppin has been lynched. He was a

Town Cop

."

Another success for the interloper in the crowd. The sole outcast left, they knew they were outnumbered and outmatched. Still they struggled, and perhaps with their tenacity they could continue this trend. It was their only chance to escape the village alive, after all.

Day 4 has ended. Night 4 will end in (expired on 2016-04-15 22:15:09). Send in your actions!
NOTE: count edited to reflect the new count.

[MaxwellPuckett]

Unfortunately, pisskop is being force-replaced. Searching for the replacement now. Night deadline will be extended to 24 hours after the replacement is found.

EDIT: RadiantCowbells replaces pisskop! The deadline counter has been reset, and night 4 will now end in (expired on 2016-04-15 22:15:09) to give the replacement some time to catch up.

[MaxwellPuckett]

Apologies, all! I'll process the night in the morning. I lost track of time and now I'm exhausted and it's time for bed. Really sorry. Day will start first thing in the morning.

[MaxwellPuckett]

The morning brought dryness in the mouths of all in the village. Whether this was due to the moisture-less heat that had rolled in, or the knowledge that there was yet another body to be found, was unclear. Perhaps it was just a general symptom of weariness. Whatever the cause, the dryness contributed to the general feeling of illness, anxiety, and pure exhaustion that was quickly becoming a staple in the village.

Reaching the town square, the villagers crowded around what.. looked, possibly, like a body?

Charred black and featureless, the corpse's hands were clenched, its body curled in on itself in much the same way as the previous victim of the killers. Or killer, as it was now. With no way to identify it, the townspeople searched among themselves for a missing face. Before they could make much headway, the answer was spoken softly (but perfectly understandably) from the same location as always.

"Almost50 has been killed. He was a

Town Doctor

."

There was no surprise. It was likely that the villagers had already guessed at this outcome. The smell of ash permeated the square. The dawn of another day.

Day 5 begins! It will end in (expired on 2016-04-30 16:45:12). Thanks to everyone for your patience with me.

[MaxwellPuckett]

Votecount 5.00

Not Voting:

Kop, Ranger, RadiantCowbells, Rhaegar, Autti

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.
Day 5 will end in (expired on 2016-04-30 16:45:12).

[RadiantCowbells]

Proxy vote to Ranger

Kop is conftown.

Lynch scum today we win.
don't lynch scum I vote you.

[RadiantCowbells]

Autti claimed N5 cop and didn't die?

Autti, what's your invest?

[Rhaegar]

It was night four....

[RadiantCowbells]

[RadiantCowbells]

Unproxy vote

I'll actually read this.

[Ranger]

I'll actually read this.

I'll give you the highlights.

• On D1, SnarkySnowman was a scummy scumperson, was wagoned, and claimed N1 cop. This is how KTS got mislynched.
• D2, SnarkySnowman claimed a guilty on your slot, pisskop.
• Hilariously enough, as you're well aware, pisskop was an N1 cop with an innocent on Kop. The results from this were obvious.
• shotty managed to obvscum it up D3. We gained the additional information that Kop was an N2 cop, with an innocent on Almost50.
• Rhaegar has been obvtowning it up ever since D1.
• shotty claimed N4 cop, we lynched him anyway.
• D4 comes around. duppin and Autti both push for a massclaim.
• I deduced Rhaegar was a doctor. From SnarkySnowman and shotty both claiming cop, I inferred we were in the 6:4 doc:cop setup.
• This is because I, myself, am a doctor, for N5.
• It was concluded scum was within {duppin, Autti}, and we lynched duppin. It wasn't him.

So that's where we're at right now.

You're basically confirmed town. Rhaegar is basically confirmed town. I'm not

as

confirmed town, though I can argue for it if necessary. Kop

is

literally confirmed town. So, Autti is pretty much the last scum.

So, let's list the theoretical options we can do for today.

1. The lynch could be on one of {you, Rhaegar}. GOD no, for the aforementioned reasons that while you may not officially be literally-mod-confirmed town, I'm treating you both as if you are anyway.
2. We mislynch me. This will bring you to an {Autti, RadiantCowbells, Rhaegar} lylo. For obvious reasons, I'd
   prefer
   you not doing this, but so long as you lynch Autti, then I wouldn't mind too terribly much. If I'm wrong, I'll take the blame, but, really, I'm not.
3. We lynch Autti. This should win us the game. If it doesn't, then this scenario is effectively identical to the above, since I'd deserve the loss.
4. Option four is viable because of claims and math: we no lynch. I'm an N5 doctor. Autti is a claimed N5 cop. If the scum no-kill or I stop a kill, then tomorrow, we have Autti either claiming a guilty (which is an auto-win: lynch the guilty, and if Autti was lying, lynch Autti), or Autti claiming an innocent result: lynch Autti to either end the game or confirm the innocent, scum nightkill one of the two innocent results, and we go into a 3p lylo with one conftown, a 50/50 shot.

That's the best-case scenario, but it still works mathematically if scum nightkill someone. They can't hit conftown because I'd be protecting Kop. Meaning they'd have to nightkill an unconfirmed player. If they nightkill an unconfirmed player within the three Rs {Ranger, Rhaegar, Radiant}, then Autti will claim a result. If Autti claims a result on a living player, regardless of innocent or guilty, we have a 50/50: choosing between Autti and one other player.

The down side to this scenario, however, is two outcomes: if Autti claims to investigate the R player nightkilled, then we have Autti and two uncleared players, objectively a 33% chance. I'd say this is the worst-case scenario. The second is if Autti is town, and is nightkilled. Because that would leave all three Rs alive, and uncleared. Also objectively a 33% chance. This scenario, however, is basically identical to as if we had lynched Autti. I also find it the least-likely, because, well...it requires Autti being town.

Personally, I prefer scenario 3 because it's probably the fastest way to win the game. But I want your feedback.

[RadiantCowbells]

So my slot is as of now considered basically confirmed town: correct?

[RadiantCowbells]

If I'm already seen as near conftown and you're confident that Rhaegar is town, I'm willing to autolynch Autti if you flip town.

[RadiantCowbells]

VOTE: Ranger

[Ranger]

So my slot is as of now considered basically confirmed town: correct?

Effectively, yes.

The 1v1 between SnarkySnowman and pisskop, along with pisskop being one of the major pushers of shotty, makes your slot basically confirmed town. We don't have a cop innocent, but we don't need one.

If I'm already seen as near conftown and you're confident that Rhaegar is town, I'm willing to autolynch Autti if you flip town.

Basically, yes. pisskop was one of the primary pushers of both scum...but the

other

pusher, who pushed both longer and harder, was Rhaegar. (Whose posting is also obviously town without interactions.) This,

before

my speculation about Rhaegar. To see that, 1004 (first hint), 1023 (much more explicit), 1031, 1047, 1051, with the revelation in 1101, and further explained in 1102.

I'm more sure about Rhaegar being town than I am about your slot being town, and your slot could literally not be more obvtown. (Because, in addition to the interactions with scum, pisskop was obvtown on his own merits.)

So, I deserve to lose if either of these reads is wrong.

[Ranger]

Though, I

am

wondering why you're lynching me first.

That's backwards from the RC I know.

[RadiantCowbells]

Well that's funny because the reason I did it was to see if you'd selfvote, because that's what I expected from the Ranger I know.

UNVOTE:

That would have made you basically conftown. Now I'm not so sure.

[Ranger]

Well that's funny because the reason I did it was to see if you'd selfvote, because that's what I expected from the Ranger I know.

I don't have a vengekill this game, RC. Both my self-votes were done with the explicit foreknowledge I would have an influence on the game no matter what. (Especially in longnight!) They also accomplished something by inherent nature of the self-vote. My shortnight self-vote helped set up the endgame I preferred. (Albeit a miscalculation on my part.) My longnight self-vote was a gambit, and while I didn't get the endgame setup I preferred because my gambit failed (with

three

setbacks), the intention of doing so was there. In both instances, I was under the impression every bit of productive discussion with the current gamestate had been made, so I needed to do something to change it: the self-vote.

Here, there is productive discussion to be had. I'm not voting Autti, either, and Autti's basically 99.99% scum at this point.

[RadiantCowbells]

Well I'm townreading you either way and I trust your reads.

[Ranger]

Which is why we're probably lynching Autti today, but I want to hear from everyone first. We've been the only two people to speak so far today.

[RadiantCowbells]

Fair enough!

[Kop]

We lynch Autti. This should win us the game. If it doesn't, then this scenario is effectively identical to the above, since I'd deserve the loss.

Option four is viable because of claims and math: we no lynch. I'm an N5 doctor. Autti is a claimed N5 cop. If the scum no-kill or I stop a kill, then tomorrow, we have Autti either claiming a guilty (which is an auto-win: lynch the guilty, and if Autti was lying, lynch Autti), or Autti claiming an innocent result: lynch Autti to either end the game or confirm the innocent, scum nightkill one of the two innocent results, and we go into a 3p lylo with one conftown, a 50/50 shot.[/list] That's the best-case scenario, but it still works mathematically if scum nightkill someone. They can't hit conftown because I'd be protecting Kop. Meaning they'd have to nightkill an unconfirmed player. If they nightkill an unconfirmed player within the three Rs {Ranger, Rhaegar, Radiant}, then Autti will claim a result. If Autti claims a result on a living player, regardless of innocent or guilty, we have a 50/50: choosing between Autti and one other player.

The down side to this scenario, however, is two outcomes: if Autti claims to investigate the R player nightkilled, then we have Autti and two uncleared players, objectively a 33% chance. I'd say this is the worst-case scenario. The second is if Autti is town, and is nightkilled. Because that would leave all three Rs alive, and uncleared. Also objectively a 33% chance. This scenario, however, is basically identical to as if we had lynched Autti. I also find it the least-likely, because, well...it requires Autti being town.

Personally, I prefer scenario 3 because it's probably the fastest way to win the game. But I want your feedback.

Were heavily reliant on Autti actually being night 5 cop if we let him live. He could easily come back the next day as scum, claim a guilty on one of the other unconfirmed players and we're in a situation of heavily influenced WIFOM. And if we lynch his guilty claim, that costs us the game going of his gambit.

I've been in the past all for people proving there role before we lynch them, but in this instance, I don't think I'm prepared to do that. So I think we lynch Autti this time round, because if we are in the 4/6 setup, there is no way he can be the night 5 cop.

If he flips town cop, then we need to lynch scum in the next lynch, and if you are the night 5 doctor, you should protect me or radiantcowbells as the only confirmed townies, at this point.

[Autti]

I'm dead either way. Either I get Lynch today, or I get nked tonight to prevent my reveal.

[Ranger]

Right, so at this point, just waiting on Rhaegar to check in.

[MaxwellPuckett]

Votecount 5.01 (unchanged)

Not Voting:

Kop, Ranger, RadiantCowbells, Rhaegar, Autti

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.
Day 5 will end in (expired on 2016-04-30 16:45:12).