Mini 1762: Game Over

[Raskolnikov]

I have to ask kirroha-slot a question.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Rask - why did you wait until Kirroha's slot flaked to start to ask questions?

[Raskolnikov]

Kirro already sort of answered. I want to see how the replacement responds.

[Syndesis]

@mod: I think I'm voting Ras

@everyone else: zzzzz

[Metrion]

@mod: I think I'm voting Ras

You have not officially voted yet on day 4.

[Raskolnikov]

this game is so fucked

[Raskolnikov]

whichever of you are town I want you to rethink this game very well after my (or possibly kirroha's) flip if it gets to d5 (modkills+ml could end it here)

I really don't know how I could save the game at this point if its going to deadline with 2 town wagoned and modkills potentially coming in.

[implosion]

I mean I guess hopefully kirroha is scum ~_~ it seems certainly possible.

If kirro+nino get modkilled then it's effectively as if we lynched kirro and scum killed nino. And honestly I'm almost willing to vote kirro. I really think it's 2/3 in rask/gif/kirro and although kirro is imo the least likely in that group we do at least have a ml. It's unfortunate that we might be forced to use it without really having a choice if she's town.

I feel like I've already put the effort that I should into figuring this game out and more is just going to lead to second-guessing in a bad way. Having more time to is just useless to me unless there's other specific points people want to raise. And steam has run out from pretty much everyone with regards to those.

[Metrion]

GuyInFreezer has been prodded.

[Raskolnikov]

I think you're town but the reality is one of us is misreading this game and if your list is me/gif/kirro I'm going to assume you are.
I mean technically one of gif or kirro could be third scum but if you're going to go into the rest of this game giving moi and especially syn a free pass when I'm 100% it's at least syn possibly both then we're going to have a bad time.

If I'm wrong on syn or kirro I guess I'll eat my words in the postgame but promise me you'll reconsider things after I flip or kirro does if she's town (mafia will have to nk nino slot). If it gets to d5 lylo it's looking rough with how divided everyone is this game.

[Syndesis]

and that is why it is not a good idea to play mafia while sleep deprived

VOTE: Ras

I promise I will put some content into this game before deadline.

[Syndesis]

L-1

please don't hammer thanks!

[GuyInFreezer]

.

[Raskolnikov]

Righteo.

For when I'm gone; although it doesn't look like you guys would value my reads much anyways
syn (almost certainly scum)
MoI (probably scum)
GiF/kirroha/implosion is weird because logically I know if it isn't syn/MoI then one of these has to be scum but I don't know which.

top teams are gr/syn/MoI >>> gr/syn/gif > gr/syn/kirr (unlikely)
and I have moi/gif ruled out from their exchange and kirro/gif ruled out from ink's earlier interaction with kirro
I was going to rule out imp with some for hard defending (jump off TG d1 looked too obvious to be from scum) but in some of his games he actually just hard defends his partners so ehhh, strong townread his d4 posts though.

Also I really wanted to see if anyone would take my chain lynch; I assumed if syn was actually town then scum would probably accept the premise and try to use it to get free lylo mislynch (or more likely lynch syn and then me in lylo). Everyone pretty much rejected it except for kirro who was pushing me/syn as the scumteam(??) and didn't really accept/reject.

Technically being lynched here has slight value because if I was alive lylo I'd probably be lynched there instead and game over; only 2 of you are scum yet 5/6 scumread me so I know that's 3-4/4 town willing. I think it might be actually better in a practical sense to end the day early to buy more time for replacements/delay modkills but I'm not sure on the mechanics of that; I think kirro's town and I doubt anyone except for me or her would get lynched at this point d4 so there's not much point delaying things imo.

That's everything of value I have, good luck.

[Raskolnikov]

oh yeah, syn/gif is mostly because he used gr's post to defend syn at the same time as me; the expectation for one of those posts with 4 listed would actually be to usually have a scumpartner in there. I still think syn/MoI is way better if only because Gif's actually been furthering town wincon with massclaim, co-op with RC and defending me whereas MoI doubtcasted RC and wanted him lynched(while defending GR), discredits the fuck out of me and seems more or less apathetic about my lynch and in general what the lynch target is.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Frankly I’m tempted to hammer after reading 1913. This looks like the classic “maybe I can stave off my lynch with a ton of analysis that I haven’t given all damn game long” hail-mary play from desperate scum who have taken the lurker / low-content route.

But I’m not going to. At least not right now. I still think Kirroha is the best bet for scum and Kirroha / Rask seems much more unlikely than Kirroha / Implosion. And I want to see what happens with the replacement situation.

Implosion’s 1907 strikes me as pre-emptive “Oh shit, Kirroha might get modkilled and then her flipping scum with me pushing hard the other way looks bad. Seriously do a side-by side of Implosion and Kirroha. Minimal interaction between the slots at all. The most telling is Implosion’s jump onto Kirroha’s early wagon and this interaction regarding Kirroha’s softclaim. That’s it. Once the heat died down on Kirroha no scum-hunting interactions between the slots at all. Some minor banter. Implosion later shows up as a Lean Town read of Kirorha’s at 1241. And then we have the following –

I'm extremely confident that rubixxx is town and I'm pretty confident that GR and kirroha are town but I could be convinced on those two.

So flipped scum GR and Kirroha are both pretty confident Town reads, but he could be convinced otherwise if necessary. Positioning to not suspect either unless tide turns.

I’ve already discussed to death why I feel the Kirroha / Robster interactions look suspect.

Implosion dropped a weak vote on the Robster slot and jumped off at 641 with the reason that “he didn’t want the day to end with a player having only posted once” (this was the first replacement Tiasho). And then speaks out about how bad the wagon is on the slot at 677

Reads as distancing until the possibility of lynch actually came within reach. At 1120 Robster had become as strong Townread for Implosion.

And the whole flow of their discussion after I replace in is suspect. Kirroha keeps mentioning Robster in a lynch pool with Synd and Rask but never actually voted Robster … only the second two. Implosion lands on Rask

[MagnaofIllusion]

In fact this whole exercise has me very willing to bet today that Kirroha / Implosion is quite possibly the scum team.

@Synd

- get in here and unvote Rask and vote Kirroha.

@Rask

- you aren't getting a Synd lynch today. If you are Town voting Kirroha is the best route to you for playing to your wincon.

[Raskolnikov]

But if she flips town like I think she will I'm like 100% sure I'll be insta ml'd in lylo with how much everyone hates me and game over.

[MagnaofIllusion]

But if she flips town like I think she will I'm like 100% sure I'll be insta ml'd in lylo with how much everyone hates me and game over.

So are you more sure she's flip Town than you? That's the question at hand. Because I can't see as Town that making any sense. Because if you are Town like you claim then you know you are going to flip Town while you only suspect she will.

[Raskolnikov]

No, I think she's probably (90%) town but I just can't see town winning if she's town+mislynched, whereas I think there's at least a chance if people rethink the game after my flip

[Raskolnikov]

But it's really tempting to because it looks she's getting modkilled anyways

[Raskolnikov]

fuck it
purely out of self preservation
VOTE: Kirroha

[MagnaofIllusion]

No, I think she's probably (90%) town but I just can't see town winning if she's town+mislynched, whereas I think there's at least a chance if people rethink the game after my flip

Well then I don't know what to tell you then. For me the teams that seem reasonable are the following

Kirroha / Implosion
Kirroha / You
You / GiF

I've yet to see anything out of anyone's slots showing me a reasonable case why Synd is more likely to be scum. Frankly I think you are putting way too much emphasis in the "Scum were bussing Day 3 because the could" stance which is pretty thin.

Or you are scum. I'd lean heavier towards you as Town than scum at this stage but I would not rule it out.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOD I will be V/LA from 5pm EDT today until Monday for my normal family weekend duties.

[Syndesis]

I'll hammer kirroha if deadline isn't moved out I guess but right now my heart still wants a Ras lynch.

Hmm.