Mini 1762: Game Over

[MagnaofIllusion]

On your case –

After re-reading I can see your points about Synd’s Day 1 interactions and late votes. The issue I have is that Kirroha pretty much also fits that to a tee – she jumped off the Robster slot wagon and jumped around never to return to Robster. So that’s a push in my mind. But I can see your point.

I’m not sure what “Rule of Three” is but I can’t really say in a game this size that scum are automatically going to just slap a random partner in their suspicions lists for random bussing purposes. Meh.

The rest of Day 3 I’m ambivalent on. You can see some of my comments below that helped shape my opinion. And I’ve already said my piece – what you see as bussing I don’t simply because neither one commits to it strongly. If you are going to bus you do it in a way that reads as Town. Clearly their interactions didn’t do that given that Radiant called it bussing behavior.

So I can see why you think that but on the whole I’m happier with Kirroha over Synd.

Points regarding Synd –

1095 looks like he picked up on Radaint’s crumb. Despite their back and forth on the subject I don’t see scum letting Radiant live if one of them suspected him as an Investigation role.

Also I don’t get the sense that 1124 where Synd basically asks both GR and Kirroha to explain their push on you as coming from a GR partner if you are indeed Town.

I also find it very telling that around 1290 Robster is hammering Synd for lack of interaction with players. Note the more or less complete lack of interactions from him to Kirroha / Implosion.

Other points

GR’s response to you at 1228 actually makes me feel better about your slot. Because he’s pre-Town flip already setting up to assess scum-motivations for what he thought was a hammer. And yes there is some small chance this is scum theatre but …

[Raskolnikov]

If you are going to bus you do it in a way that reads as Town. Clearly their interactions didn’t do that given that Radiant called it bussing behavior.

Quick note, this is circular logic and not actually a thing. Basically by that logic nobody can ever catch bussing because it will always read pure town and win the game and you can replace "bus" here with anything scum do.

I'm feeling better about you and GiF now after our exchange so even if I'm right on kirroha I think this can still be done lylo. I hope I'm wrong though, which is a weird situation to be in, technically I could also be right on one of the things and wrong on the other (haven't looked into syn/kirro too much).

But hopefully we can talk more d5 since scum should kill dwlee.

[Raskolnikov]

Ugh I didn't even notice that fishing until now, I just read the quotes separately.

[MagnaofIllusion]

If you are going to bus you do it in a way that reads as Town. Clearly their interactions didn’t do that given that Radiant called it bussing behavior.

Quick note, this is circular logic and not actually a thing. Basically by that logic nobody can ever catch bussing because it will always read pure town and win the game and you can replace "bus" here with anything scum do.

Well and my answer to you is exactly that - bussing isn't going to be something that is always obvious and always caught. There are degrees by which it is successful and it is dependent on the skill of the players bussing. The truth lies in the middle ground somewhere. But this is an academic argument.

At this stage I'm satisfied that you can throw the hammer whenever you can. I don't want to run up against deadline too closely but you can certainly hold out for a few hours if you wish.

[Dwlee99]

I agree with your points. I think the remaining scum are kirroha and syndesis (PoE + Magna and your analyses of their associations with rob)
I think lynch order should be kirro -> synd -> magna. Remember to always consider new information, however.

[Raskolnikov]

I was hoping for more from dwlee considering his conftown with a few hours left but I can empathise with him not reading 75 pages when he's about to die anyways.

[Raskolnikov]

never mind

[Dwlee99]

Sorry I havent been able to do as much as I would have liked since the time I replaced in. Good luck
I edited out the vote, anything.you want to run through rask?

[Dwlee99]

Ink is looking better to me after the series of posts, plus the fact that he's been looking into my (admittedly very bad) meta pegs him as townlean. UNVOTE:

Regarding Shortcut's question, Syndesis was scummy for voting for me without reason but ink moreso at that time because of the fact that he pinpointed BBT as town without any reason to do that. That and the fact that he misrepresented my post.

Though, ink, for someone who's been digging into my past games, you must've realised that the last game I've played was in early 2014, when there was only nighttalk. My so-called "fake townslip question" you are eyeing is genuine. In my first game I was also lynched for an alleged 'fake townslip'. I was VT. Maybe I'm just a shitty player, but because of that being accused of fake townslips just aggravates me. But anyways, I'm more interested in talking about this:

One silver lining about being the usual D1/D2 town lynch (which, sad to say, I still have no idea why it keeps happening. I just usually ask questions and lightly pressure people early in the game to see reactions and gather information) is that after a while I tend to see patterns about my wagon.

A few things I've noticed henceforth were these:
- The people spearheading my wagon with reasons of their own tend to be town.
- The people who defend me tend to be town as well.
- People who sit on my wagon without a definite reason tend to be scum. (i.e. Syndesis)
- People who seem to like my wagon but don't vote for me tend to be scum. (Shortcut?)

Because of this I don't particularly like how Syndesis and Shortcut are looking right now. Syndesis has only posted 2 posts so far, which are essentially "Hi, so many posts to read through lol" and then voting me with no explanation.

Shortcut has been relatively active but flitting in here and there and not making any reads. The fact that his vote is still on Nino even though he seems to have more likely candidates by now bothers me.

VOTE: Syndesis

FOS: Shortcut

If you have to lynch me D1, pay attention to my wagon after I flip. I'm inclined to peg those who have strong reasons for or against my wagon as town, while those flitting uncertainly in the middle as scum.

thoughts on this with syndesis / kirro team?

[Raskolnikov]

Whenever I think of kirroha I'm just reminded of how hard she's been pushing that GR slot pretty much everyday.
Kirroha/syn/gr would actually be really weird because it would be an extreme OTT bussing scumteam considering kirroha pushed both of them as well as gr/syn doing each other so I don't really like that tbh.

[Dwlee99]

Bussing.is.scummy

[Raskolnikov]

Oh and if she's actually scum that post hopefully illustrates what I was saying earlier in 1997.
But no I don't really like syn/kirroha as a team.

Bussing.is.scummy

Okay?

[Dwlee99]

Lol I meant.common. No shit it is scummy, dwlee, only scum.can bus lmao

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: kirroha

I hope I'm wrong I guess?

[MagnaofIllusion]

VOTE: kirroha

I hope I'm wrong I guess?

I absolutely hope you were wrong reading Kiro as Town ...

Now time to wait for the flip.

Reminder - if for some reason Kirroha flips Mafia Doctor confirmed Town is (Dwe / Implosion / GiF).

If Kirroha flips any other Mafia I want Implosions' head on a platter tomorrow.

[Dwlee99]

VOTE: kirroha

I hope I'm wrong I guess?

I absolutely hope you were wrong reading Kiro as Town ...

Now time to wait for the flip.

Reminder - if for some reason Kirroha flips Mafia Doctor confirmed Town is (Dwe / Implosion / GiF).

If Kirroha flips any other Mafia I want Implosions' head on a platter tomorrow.

and if they flip town?

[MagnaofIllusion]

and if they flip town?

Well then we will be in LYLO tomorrow and baring some odd Nightkill choice I have to do a dedicated re-read to see who between Synd and Rask makes more sense as scum. PoE should make that pretty apparent.

[Metrion]

Vote Count 4.5

Raskolnikov

(1)

: Syndesis

(L-3)

Kirroha

(4)

: MagnaofIllusion, GuyInFreezer, implosion, Raskolnikov

(Lynched)

MagnaofIllusion

(1)

: Dwlee99

(L-3)

Not Voting

(1):

Kirroha.

With 7 players alive, majority is 4 today.

Kirroha has been lynched, they were a

Vanilla Townie

.

(expired on 2016-04-27 19:23:00) remains in Night 4.

[Metrion]

Day Five Start!

Dredging onwards, the remaining continued their task.

Dwlee99 the [1shot Vigilante]

was killed last night!

(expired on 2016-05-11 19:24:00) remains in Day Five.


Note: The OP and links are all updated.

[Raskolnikov]

A bit disappointed yesterday came down to me-or-kirroha, and whichever 2 of you were town and refused to lynch outside of that. I've lost my last two lylos and I'll be salty af if this goes the same way.

Anyways, I'm fairly confident in my MoI read from our talk yesterday and particularly feel that he was genuinely convinced kirro would flip scum. Things like the analysis in 1915 seems to be pushing the partner narrative too far considering scum-MoI would know it's useless because kirro was town, and scum generally push theories this far if they have actual value for later; i.e. it's inefficient to setup a ton of kirroha-imp scumteam theorycrafting if as scum you know it's useless since kirroha's getting lynched.

GiF and Implosion are easy then because at least one has to be town from the gunsmith clears, and that means syndesis has to be the partner to whichever is scum by PoE. Also townreading GiF for his play and bad(as in unlikely for scum) association with GR I mentioned yesterday, also factoring in the gunsmith check.
Even if I'm wrong on my MoI read, which I doubt, he would probably still be scum with syndesis though.

syn/imp >>> syn/moi > syn/gif (I'm not 100% on the order of these latter two) > imp/Moi.

Thankfully GiF/moi I can rule out from rubixxx/ink interactions back in day 1-2.

imp/MoI is harder because imp scum meta from what I saw is hard defending scumpartners but he almost takes it too far with his rubixxx defending (based on gut too), it's actually absurd if you read his ISO. From rubixx's side I don't see anything too bad though and 559 is actually pretty creative if they're scumpartners. I'm wary of using MoI for assocations because I expect scum-MoI to not leave anything obvious, but I don't see anything here standing out as evidence for imp/moi team, 1915 being slightly against it. I think overall this relationship is most likely scum Imp hard-buddying town-moi's slot using the rubixxx emotion as an excuse. Mostly the imp/moi review just makes me feel even worse about impl individually though. Particularly feel like he's prepared gif/me as a push for later back in 1844 1907.

In practice this means syn lynch >>> imp lynch today, the only scenario in which imp is better being if I misread syn AND one of MoI/GiF, which I really doubt after being right on kirro.
If it's syn/imp as it probably is the order here is irrelevant though.

As for actual syn/imp interaction, Syn ISO doesn't have much content for associations, there's a weak tonal tr on imp and that's pretty much it. Implosion for most of the game had no actual scumreads (cited lack of motivation) but when he went into it he had syn as "scummy but less scummy than rask" if you take near bottom of his list to mean scummy; he actually phrased it as being the weakest townreads amongst townreading everyone lol. See my earlier post on scum having scum around that near-bottom-but-never-quite category. Until the GR flip, at which point he starts to townread syn and says it isn't bussing, didn't he second-guess even a bit unlike everyone else who at least considered what I said about it. Honestly no smoking guns via interaction, but no evidence against the association plus both being individually scummy plus townreads elsewhere and other teams looking unlikely makes me fairly convinced on this.

I'm better still on the GiF slot with an ink re-read though I didn't like ink way back when for some reason. With GiF/imp and GiF/Moi out the only thing possible is syn/GiF which is a bad association considering syn's push on ink d2 (bussing 1 partner is ok but bussing both seems ludicrous). I wish GiF himself was more involved in this game though.

The only thing I'm slightly paranoid of is MoI almost entirely from the day 3 play discrediting RC and the kirro read feeling disproportionally based on her VT crumb and ideas, but logically I know that everyone accepting kirro yesterday means both other town were wrong there too, and if I have to find the person who looked the most convinced-yet-wrong-anyways as opposed to straight up lazy and settling (the latter blends in with scum) it would be him.

But yeah 90% it's syn/imp and going to vote syn unless anyone objects.

[Raskolnikov]

The 1 for 1 thing also thought about more. If I was syndesis as town scumreading me I would feel better than she did to take that 1 for 1 especially if it was me first, furthermore if she was town I'd expect at least one of the actual scum to support it as well because it's basically a free win for them setting up an easy lylo ml on either. This scenario has 3 people with some motivation to support it and I'd expect at least 1/3 to bite; town rejecting being traded for their #1 scumread is believable but combined with both of the scum being against the narrative as well I feel is really unlikely. Even if you're town and you hate the concept: when you're in a scenario where you want your scumread lynched and the lynch instead is someone you're settling on (syn said she thought scum was me+GiF), I think you'd at least consider it or just be a little bit or mildy opposed. She talked to me when I suggested it as if I was being stupid when she should have instead seen it as malicious or scum-motivated from a town pov talking to their scumread. I would have also wanted a town syn to push me with more conviction especially after being 'right' about GR; though this is a more minor thing.
I also think scum should have also setup suspicion onto syn if she was town as well for next-day preparation when it looked like my lynch was most likely; playing both sides of a TvT and using it to get both seems like optimal scumplay in that scenario. Looking back I do see this thinking used on me and kirroha but the only person I remember using it for me+syn (I see 1 scum in the two and this statement allows me to get the other tomorrow if one is ml'd) is MoI but him having that perspective as town considering the gs innos makes perfect sense; think about it.

I'm actually surprised though, I didn't think I would get this much information from analysing and thinking about it but it sort of became an accidental reaction test. I was mostly just desperate from that shitty situation and wanted it not to be an insta-loss if I got lynched since I was/am pretty damn sure on my syn read: 1 for 1 with potential for 1 for 0 is essentially win-mostlywin. I think me being lynched there would have been instaloss in retrospect because kirroha probably would've been lynched the following lylo, or even the one after that if people pulled through. As it is I think we'll be okay surprisingly unless I'm horrendously wrong after all my research, which has happened before (x_x), or if MoI soft-180s.

[MagnaofIllusion]

But yeah 90% it's syn/imp and going to vote syn unless anyone objects.

Just wait. There is absolutely no reason to rush voting in LYLO no matter how comfortable we are. Drop a FOS if you want but please don't vote before everyone has at least posted.

Yes, I also know that you posted two rather large walls. I will comment / discuss those in a bit but I thought it best to state my thoughts on this tiny but important issue ASAP.

[Raskolnikov]

Eh, I guess you guys have to reconsider the game after that flip, for me this is pretty much yesterday though.

[Raskolnikov]

zzzzzzzzz

[Syndesis]

Hhhhhhhhhhhhhh...okay.

Well, I think? town-Ras wouldn't be misreading me this much. Not just in my alignment but in my approach; it feels like they're sort of abusing meta to give their case more weight but that meta is so off base I... yeah.

The only viable teams that don't include Ras are {MoI, implosion} and {MoI, GiF} and I don't feel those are likely.

(Quite frankly the amount that I care about this game has steadily gone down over the last few weeks, which is bad I know, but I'm going to try to get my head back in the game after some of my currently outstanding commitments resolve.)