Newbie 1691 - Game Over

[mhsmith0]

Yeah, I was gonna say I'll wait to verify the conf town thing first, haha. That'd be an embarrassing way to lose.

Not gonna lie, feeling very lazy at the moment. I will look into things soon-ish though.

Oh yeah that would be the worst. FWIW finishing the game up isn't ASAP, but I really don't want this thing to push too far into D4 either. Been what... like seven weeks so far? Definitely ready to get to an ending (hopefully the good kind though)

PS If you're a wolf you could always self vote. That'd be cool

[Almost50]

Let's just move this a step forward. We all know I'd only be voting Clumsy and he only would be voting me, so it's all down to you.

VOTE: Clumsy

[mhsmith0]

*LOL*

What was the first thing (or maybe second) I said when I replaced in??

First post:

...I'd appreciate it if somebody lined out the main arguments though. Thanks in advance.

Second post (to KAAG):

...Why are you not voting Summer instead?

One of those?

[mhsmith0]

Yep. All down to me. Both the power and the pressure. Decisions, decisions...

PS FWIW I've basically stayed away from this thread for the last week (i.e. the span of N3), since I was playing with the idea that Summer might have been cleverly playing the part of BP and I might not see D4 anyway. In related news, my PR reading abilities are AWESOME

[Almost50]

Nope. I meant I said I thought I'd be replacing into a scum slot before I read my role PM, and was sure Summer was my partner too.

[Almost50]

my PR reading abilities are AWESOME

Yes, but you play too safe it sometimes backfires. You need to take some chances some times. For instance, I've learnt to vote my top town read on D3/D4 if we're getting into a loop. If by that time things aren't making sense then I'm likely putting scum as my top town read. (I'm talking reads though not confirmed via some logic process like you are in this game).

Anyway, I cannot tell you why my Egg/Ayu were town. I didn't think they were before I hopped into their slot!

[Almost50]

I'll just say I noticed KAAG in post #99 (I think) posted a readlist and his only scum lean was Ayu.

[mhsmith0]

Nope. I meant I said I thought I'd be replacing into a scum slot before I read my role PM, and was sure Summer was my partner too.

Ok. And the relevance of that is?

/ninja'd: there's a pretty reasonable chance you still don't think they're town though

Anyway, I think it may be helpful to focus on kaag/egg and kaag/ya and how one combination especially does or doesn't make sense. Convincing me it has to be kaag/ya and can't be kaag/egg is probably your only real path to victory.

@clumsy: and the reverse is true for you, fwiw. Mining kaag and convincing me it has to be kaag and egg is your likeliest path to victory as well. I'll be focusing on that analysis as well, unless something else catches my eye.

[Almost50]

Progression of KAAG reads:

{KAAG}
{SummerInWonderland}
{Aeronaut}
{UpTooLate, Aatami}
{YawningAngel, Firelord, HeyBoxGaming} -- NULL LINE
{Ryu Ogami}


{KAAG}
{SummerInWonderland}
{Aeronaut}
{UpTooLate, Aatami}
{YawningAngel, mhsmith0} -- NULL LINE
{Ryu Ogami, HeyBoxGaming}


{KAAG}
{SummerInWonderland}
{Aeronaut, mhsmith0}
{UpTooLate, Aatami}
{YawningAngel} -- NULL LINE
{Ryu Ogami, HeyBoxGaming}


{KAAG}
{SummerInWonderland, mhsmith0}
{Aeronaut}
{YawningAngel, UpTooLate, Aatami} -- NULL LINE
{Ryu Ogami, HeyBoxGaming}


{KAAG}
{SummerInWonderland, mhsmith0}
{Aeronaut, UpTooLate}
{YawningAngel, Aatami} -- NULL LINE
{Ryu Ogami, HeyBoxGaming}


{KAAG}
{SummerInWonderland, mhsmith0}
{Aeronaut, UpTooLate}
{YawningAngel, Aatami} -- NULL LINE
{Ryu Ogami, HeyBoxGaming}


{KAAG}
{SummerInWonderland, mhsmith0}
{Aeronaut}
{YawningAngel, GreenNope} -- NULL LINE
{Eggman, Ircher}
{UpTooLate} -- lynch this with a nuke


{KAAG}
{SummerInWonderland, mhsmith0}
{Aeronaut, YawningAngel}
{Ircher, GreenNope} -- NULL LINE
{Eggman}
{UpTooLate}


{KAAG}
{SummerInWonderland, mhsmith0}
{YawningAngel}
{Ircher, GreenNope, Aeronaut} -- NULL LINE
{Eggman}
{UpTooLate}


{KAAG}
{SummerInWonderland, mhsmith0}
{YawningAngel}
{Ircher, shannon, Thor665, Eggman} -- NULL LINE
{Radja}


{mhsmith0} -- is obv!town
{SummerInWonderland} -- is fence!town, however I respect that dead townies were not as sure as I was
{shannon} -- gut says town because...well, it does
{Ircher, YawningAngel, Eggman} -- UNCLEAR LINE


Objectively possible scum teams:

Eggman + KAAG
Eggman + YA
Eggman + mhsmith0
YA + KAAG
YA + mhsmith0
KAAG + mhsmith0


The scum team is:

90% Eggman/YA
5% Eggman/smith
5% YA/smith


And my predecessor thought KAAG was conf!scum in #1122

[Clumsy]

Well this alone confirms Smith as town.

VOTE: Almost 50

I'll get into actual stuff soon, probably tonight.

[Almost50]

Well

this alone confirms Smith as town

.

VOTE: Almost 50

I'll get into actual stuff soon, probably tonight.

Congrats for reinventing the wheel

[mhsmith0]

I will hammer before deadline!

Note: i am hyper-active: this will give 24 hours at least.

I'd so prefer Radja.

But you + YA are not on board.

So...anything better than no lynch.

If mod extends deadline due to Aero or GreenNope -> Shannon replace, my 24-hour intent will be void. To be clear: only if MOD extends, not player request.

So... this is kind of interesting. Late D1, Egg is L-1, KAAG very publicly threatens to hammer. But he does it in kind of an odd way. Like, I can't quite tell if he's serious about the hammer, or if he's trying to soft push the idea that the lynch is non-optimal, and influence the board towards a counter-lynch. It's a very dangerous game to play with a buddy, one which easily could have gone badly (which was also why I didn't think YA-Egg made any sense, given that YA pushed even harder on Egg).

More re-reading ahead. I'd REALLY like your guys thoughts on things. I know that I'm going to be the voter, and that right now you're both essentially wolves (you know the answer, and your only interest is getting the other guy lynched). But it's still something that I think is a good learning experience potentially for all three of us. LYLO happens, after all.

PS FWIW, in my general reading/skimming of the thread I feel like the Egg slot is on its own wolfier, but a decent amount of the KAAG-related stuff (I think) points more towards YA. Which makes things kind of difficult. Then again, if it was easy it wouldn't be fun to actually figure it out

PPS I'll also note that the KAAG self-hammer is just full of WIFOM. It's unclear if he was protecting against the possibility that A50 would swing his vote and get town points for it, or if he was protecting against the possibility that A50 was locked into his position and any flipping would inherently look bad. That one in particular I'm inclined not to think too deeply on, FWIW.

[mhsmith0]

Another KAAG note: he consistently held Egg in the "wolfy but not wolfiest" zone, and consistently had YA in or around the null zone. Either one is very plausible treatment of a buddy.

[mhsmith0]

SIW has done all of that. You will note that not half a page ago I was asked to justify my negative view on her and pretty much came up with fuckall. I think Eggman, while arguably a weak lynch, is still our best shot. The case for Radja, while better examined tomorrow, is still more compelling than the case for SIW. As a bonus, if you suspect a scum pairing of SIW and UTL/Radja, then we get substantial value out of lynching Radja anyway, a spot most people read as scummier. Obviously don't hammer yet (

for anyone who is in doubt about protocol here, do not hammer until near the deadline and having announced intent to do so well in advance

), but consider the lynches that are on the table and already have backing.

This is probably the wolfiest thing YA ever did, since not long after this he went ahead and quick hammered Radja. (large text mine)

[mhsmith0]

KAAG's 1123 is interesting. Buried in there is the note about Egg using the "hooker" reference. That's a very plausible scum-chat slip; I don't know how Egg would have known to use that nomenclature (for roleblocker) if he was a total newb.

[mhsmith0]

looking at YA's meta, as found by KAAG:

https://forums.heroesofnewerth.com/arch ... 15636.html
he really lurked like crazy as a wolf.

http://forums.heroesofnewerth.com/showt ... -Deception
ditto

https://forums.heroesofnewerth.com/arch ... 80169.html
3p, a lot more active, more resembling this game

OTOH, this could easily have been something KAAG found explicitly for this purpose. Around and around we go...

[Clumsy]

I'm going through ISOs now. Albeit slowly. This section feels weird to me.

Spoiler: Avoiding eyesores

Alright, so here are my first feelings.
Smith - I've got a gut feeling that he's town. I trust him.
YA - like someone said before, it looks like he isn't very much talking about this game as opposed to mafia games overall? Leaning mafioso.
Aeronaut - IC. As a leader role I feel inclined to believe that he's town, even though I know he might not be. He puts in a lot of work.
UTL - Seems like she wants to help out the newbies? Leaning town.

I'll also add that wall after wall like this can be daunting to some people (both new and old players), and that's not going to help to get the others involved.

Also this.
KAAG - He, too, puts in a lot of work. Also leaning town.
Aatami - I want to see more of you. Your posts read towny but you haven't been around for a bit?
Heybox - Hey! Why haven't you been around more? I really don't have that much to look at.

Smith, Aeronaut, Eggman

UTL, KAAG

Aatami

YA, Heybox

Going off of this, I'm gonna VOTE: YawningAngel.

One of the reasons I haven't been posting so often is because I didn't have any super strong scumreads. The only player I truly think is a mafioso at this point is YA. also omgus

Aeronaut, did you finish catching up or are you seriously gonna vote our most towny guy? Since this is D1, I don't think it's actually gonna happen, but that's getting you on my radar.

I believe that SiW is town. UtL is on my null list. To be honest, I didn't see any really scummy behavior from either of them, so if someone could point them out that would be nice..?

UNVOTE: YawningAngel
I'm, uh, not feeling it any more. Although I will note that it seems to me he's getting more aggresive with every post.
I admit that I'm useless. Sorry, Ryu, hope I didn't let you down.
I haven't been scumhunting because I honestly don't have any reads.
I'm a Vanilla Townie, which may have been some logic to why I haven't been putting in the effort.
I'm not gonna vote for myself, as that's the first rule of Towniness, so somebody vote me I guess. I'm sorry. I don't want to swap out and put anyone else in this situation, whether they're new to Mafia or super experienced.

I don't really have the gut feeling that YA is maf any more, as I (attempted to have) said above.
Where are people saying that UtL is a mafiosa from? Apart from "we have to lynch the scumz!" I'm, uh, really not seeing anything. (Full disclosure; I'm also not that good at judging mafiosi. So, if there's anything incredibly obvious that I'm missing, please do tell me!)
Oh, yeah, Aeronaut, would you like to provide some reasoning for your vote on Smith? I don't believe you have at this point in time, and it's giving me scummy vibes.
It seems like me, YA, and UtL are our prime lynch targets, since all three of us are at 2 votes. I want to make sure what people think about her before I throw my vote into the ring.

Eggman votes for YA, reiterates that YA is their top scumread, and then just... drops it within another 20 posts. What's more interesting than this is that the other person Eggman was scumreading was Heybox, and they don't even look that direction after unvoting YA.

---

Looking at it more, it looks like Ircher replaced Heybox, and opened with some pretty good posts. So that might explain not jumping that way. But not mentioning anything that way at all seems like scum losing an easy mislynch shot.

Sorry for being slow into this, will try for more tomorrow as I have the day off.

[Clumsy]

Spoiler: Radja's readlist

Strong Town

firelord111-msmith0

-firelord's first posts about the IC being a VT felt like newbtown
-mhsmith's entrance was immediately very good. He continued to do a lot of scumhunting, and while I had the feeling he was on the wrong track multiple times, he is genuinely trying to sort people.
-mhsmith has given me the impression he had no clue scum have daychat a few times.
-UTL had 0 pressure on her until mhsmith replaced in. the UTL wagon was not a popular one to form, but he still went with it and continued to pull it. I think scum might have picked an easier target at the time.

KickAssandGiggle

-I did not like how he took a cheap shot on Aatami in his first post
-His defense against Aeronaut felt weak and unnecessary
-His follow-up on his earlier defense improved greatly
-made a lovely analysis off SIW
-analysis of UTL case was great too.
-While I was originally scumreading him, he really improved fast. His constant search of scum motivation in posts really give me a big townread on him.

Town

Aeronaut

-his first impression on KAAG was the same reaction I had.
-reaction to the UTL case is good
-Has not given me any scumvibes at all. His switch to msmtih was weird, but I don't think Aeronaut as scum would think msmith is a viable wagon right now.

SummerInWonderland

-Puts early pressure on Aeronaut, the IC. Highly doubt she would do this as newbie scum.
-Her re-evaluation of KAAG later in the game, felt like town trying to figure out if they were reading the slot correctly.

heyboxgaming-Ircher

-the way HBG shot down Aeronauts RVS questions while having enough experience as an SE was rather poor play.
-Irchers catchup and reads look similar to mine. I love how we're reading the same game.

Null

GreenNope-Aatami

-I liked his first post when he targeted SIW. Felt like an attempt to get the game going.
-Nothing much happened after that, and GreenNope has yet to post something, dropping this to null.

Scum

YawningAngel

-don't like how he "prefers not to guess" when asked who is scum. When KAAG questions UTL very shortly after, he jumps in and votes UTL immediately.
-don't like how he calls 5 players pro-town, but immediately discredits that by saying he thinks there's scum among these 5.
-His defense on not developing solid reads is understandable. Starting to think I'm wanting him to be scum a bit too much.

Ryu Ogami - Eggman

-Ryu's early jump on the YawningAngel wagon looks terrible.
-Eggman claims Aatami "reads towny", but lists him as a scumread
-Asks some questions about game mechanics, but no content
-VT claim looks pretty genuine, but was not necessary at all.

Oh man, how did we both get to endgame here? It looks like there were people scumreading us both.

[mhsmith0]

Step 1: MHS wolf reads Ircher (mislynch bait) and drives the mislynch
Step 2: MHS wolf reads KAAG (the deep wolf) and drives the correct lynch

So basically, what you have is MHS driving the town right off the cliff... and then hard landing on a narrow dirt ramp that slopes down the cliff. In icy conditions. With the ramp about to split two ways, one to certain death, the other to salvation. Which path will he choose? Stay tuned, gentle readers

[Almost50]

But not mentioning anything that way at all seems like scum losing an easy mislynch shot.

Thanks
So, you admit this would be pretty bad scum play. It would've been an easy mislynch and Eggman passed on it.

[Clumsy]

You misunderstand me slightly. I'm saying this:

-Scum can see an easy mislynch target, someone who doesn't post a whole lot and will have a hard time defending themselves
-Pushes it
-That person gets replaced with Ircher
-Ircher posts a lot of good looking content
-Scum thinks "Oh crap, can't mislynch there anymore. I'll just drop it."


I see how my post would be read that way though. I should be more clear.

[Jackal711]

VOTE COUNT 4.1

Clumsy (1) - Almost50
mhsmith0 (0) -
Almost50 (1) - Clumsy

Not Voting: mhsmith0

With 3 alive, it's 2 to lynch.

Day 4 deadline is Tuesday May 10th at 8:15 am PDT which is in (expired on 2016-05-10 08:15:00)

[Almost50]

HELLO?? LO.. Lo.. lo?
ANYBODY HOME? OHM.. Ohm.. ohm??

[mhsmith0]

Yeah the game state is kind of weird. I'm doing more reading than writing, trying to figure out which slot has been wolfier, who KAAG's actions implicate more, etc. I'll try to have something interesting to say soon, but it may well be until the weekend before it happens. That said, if you guys want to push your cases, I think that's a pretty useful exercise for practice/learning etc.

Currently my lean remains on A50. But it's not firm. A lot more reading and thinking still to come. I REALLY want to get it right. First ever time in the judgement seat, but no pressure or anything

[Almost50]

Vote HIM not me! That WILL give you the win, I promise!