In post 1267, MagnaofIllusion wrote:Your point is that you don’t buy that Snarky can be convinced to change is read on Bella based on that post. That doesn’t sell me in the least. I feel like you are trying to split hairs by saying “Kill never gave reasons” when the reasons are the associative tells themselves – Acryon being auto-Town with a Bella scum flip.
Okay, how does Snarky change his read on Bella from his "townlean" group to his "scumlean" group based on kill saying "Acryon is auto-town if Bella is mafia?" It's not that he put faith in the post or that he was more willing to lynch Bellaphant because of that post. He actually changed his read due to it.
It looks to me like he is mafia faking reads on players including a townlean on Bellaphant. When he saw killthestory make that big heading saying that we're lynching Bella, he skimmed through it, assumed it was a "case," and changed his read so he could hop on the wagon if it took off whether it was a bus or a mislynch.
As for the associatives: this is all killthestory wrote on Bellaphant:
In post 427, Killthestory wrote:1. Jmo was suprisingly read null by Bella. I'm unsure about this, but I'd still getting the genuine vibe from him. Everyone else also reads him as town, so there's that.
2, Acryon is town when Bella flips scum.
3. Nos is a wild card. I could easily see him scumteaming with Bella since he's not playing aggressively or scumhunting at all and arguing on shitty things.
4. Severa will flip scum when Bella flips scum. 90 percent sure on that read.
I can't see how (1) and (2) could possibly induce Snarky to change his read considering (1) was about his own slot's interaction with Bellaphant and (2) was that Acryon would flip town which has nothing to do with Bella. I could maybe see (3) because he was suspicious of Nosferatu. But he later changes him to a townlean so he's not buying killthestory's associative tells. (4) is the only thing I see as coherent with his own reads. But all killthestory said here was make a bare statement asserting that Severa (Snarky's biggest scumread) and Bellaphant (his townlean) were mafia together. Then suddenly, Snarky's read on Bellaphant changes with no new reasoning provided? And this overshadows his original reasoning? We have no way of even knowing whether he had actual reasons because he ignored every request to provide them.
In post 1267, MagnaofIllusion wrote:See I think find this stretching. I went back and found the post in question -
528. In fact Snarky in that post said specifically “ChurchofMercy is interesting, because I see a lot of associatives with them (and a lot of info to be gained from that lynch), but I don't necessarily think they're scum, so I'd like to consider.” Which is a reasonable stance given he never went for a CoM lynch and in fact has consistently gone after the Radiant slot.
I didn't say it was an unreasonable stance by itself. I'm saying he was okay with a lynch on Church because there was a lot of information to be gained from it in the form of associatives. But today, he complains that we got no info from that lynch and we should have lynched Bellaphant instead who would have given us more info.
I'm not sure. I thought I had a handle on the game but then all my townreads started fading away and I could see pretty much anyone being mafia with almost anyone else.
SnarkySnowman is my strongest suspect. I don't think he has actual answers to the questions I'm asking him which explains his consistent dodging. He can't articulate a single other read beyond Radiant.
I
could
see RadiantCowbells being partnered with Snarky. That explains Snarky's singular focus on him. It's a lot easier to fake suspicion of a partner when you know that they are mafia and are aware of what the ulterior motives for their actions are. That also explains why Snarky is so confident on this read and is putting his entire weight behind it while he seems so inarticulate elsewhere. On the flip side, Radiant who loves to bus would certainly want the cred from bussing his weaker teammate so he could go deep into the game.
I could also see Radiant being partnered with you (MagnaOfIllusion) considering you were dead set on him being partnered with ChurchOfMercy but didn't find him suspicious on his own. I thought it was very unlikely that he was partnered with Church and his play made a lot more sense as mafia trying to set up who he would go after upon Church's townflip. I also don't understand why you are currently townreading him so I'd appreciate an explanation, especially considering you pointed out that he was posting in other games on V/LA, not engaging with this game, tunneling on Snarky, etc. What is compelling enough to outweigh all of these things and make him a townread for you?
I don't understand your read on the jmo16mla/SnarkySnowman's slot. It seems unlike most of your other reads in that you defended jmo early and continued to have at least a slight townread on Snowman. At no point did you voice any suspicion of either and whenever asked about the read, you always speak in defense of them. I find it odd that two separate low-content/low-analysis posters (jmo/Snarky) have impressed you. Your relationship with that slot is something to keep in mind going forward. I don't think you're partnered with them though. If you flip mafia, I'd be more inclined to think it was a red herring you are planting for the town to use in order to get a mislynch because you are a thorough enough player not to leave an obvious link to one of your buddies. If you are town, I'm probably on a wild goose chase.
I found Ranger's predecessor suspicious but Ranger's entrance has reminded me more of her townplay. I've been partners with her once and she was a lot less enthusiastic and less engaged with the game. It's too early to tell though and I'm waiting to see those cases on Snarky and Imperium that'll likely give me a more accurate read.
I agree that there is probably mafia among the low-content posters, specifically on Ollie. He was active at the beginning but then only shows up once every day or every two days and passive about the content he posts. It fits the mold of mafia who got townread early and don't want to shake up the gamestate.
Lowell also falls under this category though. Everytime I think "Lowell," I think "busy for the weekend," "will catchup later," "don't have internet" and so on. He too is on his own island with Ollie not minding anyone else or even analyzing how his old reads make sense today after Church's townflip.
I was townreading Imperium after the D1 lynch but they too faded away. I'd expect the level of passion they had for the Church mislynch would translate to today as they have big revelations based on the flip. I also found it odd that they agreed with my case on Radiant but didn't think to comment on it for a couple of days. If they really had a scumteam figured out overnight, I think they'd be excitedly pushing their new reads. Finally, I don't understand what Radiant did that suddenly made them unsure about him. Can't he fake frustration as mafia? Why was Imperium not in your list of low content posters?
I still have suspicions of Bellaphant's slot, and potential asssociatives with SnarkySnowman's slot, but the only thing to do now is to wait for a replacement. Acryon is probably town. I was townreading him but although the read faded due to his lack of participation, I think in this case at least, it is legitimate considering he replaced out. I think killthestory is town but not exactly someone who is making much sense to me and most of his posts just read like spam. killthestory strikes me as a player that changes his mind every few seconds and goes over multiple possibilities which make his posts incoherent but I don't think that's scummy. You initially voted killthestory saying "this is where I'm starting with my vote today." What did you mean by that? Did you have other suspects at that time that you intended to move your vote to?
So, I don't trust anyone at this point. Mostly, I'm frustrated that no one really cares about the game except you, Ranger, and killthestory. Anyone could be mafia for all I know, except maybe kill, Nosferatu, and Acryon's empty seat.
He doesn't play or even mod anymore really because he hates mafia now. It's Mastin. She'll deny it because she does every time someone points it out, but it's her. And sorry Ranger but my win condition is more important than you keeping your not really secret alt. Also, if you want to create a secret alt you should really stop slipping that you have meta knowledge you wouldn't have as an alt. If you're going to be an alt be a fucking alt. You did the same exact thing in Mafiaception when you tried to give meta reasoning for reading your partner you wouldn't have as a new player.
