Open 634: Sharing is Caring (Game Over)

[Aneninen]

SirCakez.

Empty starting posts. 55 is a vote for Shotty. Could be eh-early-weak case or a planned early-bus for town-credit?

105, 137, 140: may have come from a townie trying to move the game???

Moving for Blade in 205, and back to Shotty in 258.
Normally, I'd say it was unnecessary if SirCakez is scum... but having thought about it and this Setup actually encourages bussing. I mean, Framer may be the least useful PR out of the three scum-PRs and bussing it out will give scums additional shots for the Rolecop and the Doc. The fact that both scums seem to have been on Shotty (assuming ChilledTea is town) confirms this. So, a consistent bus might have happened for town credit...?

If something, 313–314–315 may give us a red flag. Knowing there's no Daytalk this may have been a push from SirCakez like "do something, buddy, I want to develop a better read on you"!

Then a couple of shallow interactions while the vote was still on Shotty. And to tell the truth, he never had a strong case on him. Nor any strong reads...

570 may have been an idea about building up a panic-counter:

"We have a little over a day, idk if we can get the votes for Masq."

Hmmm... 589:

"Ya Max we know Masq's voting history is terrible but no time to switch the wagon to him. Good vig shot though."

Double-hmmm...

Day1-Twilight:

"If he's actually town I'm going to be pissed because he made zero effort to scumhunt all day."

(626) – I don't know what to think. Is it genuine or fake? What do you others think?

________

662:

"Someone give intent on Masq and get a claim pls"

He was actually saying the same about Blade on Day1. (But not about Shotty!) The problem is, I don't remember him doing this as scum.

Later he was trying to get people for the Kuroi-wagon. (Knowing Wgeurts's alignment this is not scummy in itself.)

In 833 he voted for Wgeurts and yet again, that post about requesting an intent or what-s-it-called.

On the other hand, 841 looks town. Digging up a bad progression from ChilledTea, that's not what a scum would do. (?)

________

In 920 his lynch pool was Max, Chilled, Clumsy. It changed into Max/Persivul in 928. Is he bussing again? (By the way, some of the later posts would be scummy IF Clumsy had flipped scum. Weird.)

1002–1005. Persivul–SirCakez interaction. ChilledTea, what do you think of that?

His latest posts look genuine, I mean, his gameplay is the typical "I'm town, don't lynch me and let me explain why the other player is scum".

________

TL;DR. Persivul looks scummier.

________

Post-edit. Persivul, why did you pick those parts of my post?

[Persivul]

Post-edit. Persivul, why did you pick those parts of my post?

They're the parts that could be replied to objectively. The rest was mostly opinion.

Regarding self-meta: saying

believe me, this isn't my scum meta

isn't worth anything, but that's not all I did. I linked to a recent (concurrent actually) scum game and encouraged you to look up my scum games yourself.

I've also posted my position on busing in MD:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p7553731

In a 10:3 game:

If you don't bus D1, town needs 6 out of 8 votes to lynch scum D2.
If you do bus, town needs 6 out of 9.

That difference is a lot bigger than it might appear.

Here's what I said about it in Blitz 1, where I was scum with Ranger:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p7366030

Neither of you seem interested in bussing, but I still want to say: DON'T BUS! People think it's clever but in most cases it's stupid. Now, I don't mean we have to town read each other. I mean no votes, or at least no votes that you can't reasonably take back if a wagon builds.

The math speaks for itself. Assuming our kill goes through, it's 8:3, with 6 needed for a lynch. If we don't vote each other, that means town needs to get 6 of 8 people to agree to lynch one of us. To mislynch, we just need a minimum of 3 of their 8 to join on. The math is well in our favor. Our biggest concern now is a cop.

I don't want to imply that not busing is a trust tell for me - I believe I mentioned a weird game in which Aronis and I bused each other - but I have a long history of being strongly opposed to it. I suspiciously switched my vote from a buddy to avoid busing in my most recent game. Yet, here, if I'm scum I bused not once, but twice.

Basically, you're focusing on little things that I posted while working long days (I'm a corporate tax accountant), but discounting the big factors, and it's going to cost us the game.

[SirCakez]

Neither of your votes on scum looked like serious bussing. Max was clearly the lynch for the day as was Shotty. You weren't an actual strong pusher on either, and you clearly attempted to avoid voting Shotty aside from your joke vote for an extended period of time.

[Persivul]

Lynching a scum buddy is busing, and it's something I don't do.

[chilledtea]

I will be a bit busy but I am going to be taking a serious look at anen after a while. It is important I don't lose focus on him because of my townread on him. Between pers and cakes, it is not easily discernible who is scum atm. I am reconsidering my thoughts about pers but it hasn't got much to do with his meta or anything. The main thing about him that irked me is his "anen is good player" and also the "texcat was obvious and we lost her" it doesn't seem like it would come from town, feels like fake sympathy. Need to study this more.

Didn't like anen pointing out pers's statement "vigs are negative utility" as scummy - it isn't scummy, imo it is true in many cases. To put it in perspective - blacle's choice in targets were - 1)masq (jk), 2)texcat (cop), 3) myself (vt, but confirmed as town by cop). This could be an attempt at framing. Or maybe not. Anen has been a strong town read because he stopped texcat lynch BUT, if he was scum, he had to do that otherwise he would have violated his meta imo. I am not sure and I need to study this.

[Persivul]

Neither of your votes on scum looked like serious bussing. Max was clearly the lynch for the day as was Shotty. You weren't an actual strong pusher on either, and you clearly attempted to avoid voting Shotty aside from your joke vote for an extended period of time.

I avoided voting shotty until he was the clear lynch for the day? Considering I'm the third person on a 7-person wagon, that's ridiculous.

[SirCakez]

Whoops that was my bad. Max was 100% the lynch for the day though.
About bussing - you yourself admitted you have bussed as scum before. Just because you don't do it often doesn't give you this big clear and you're acting like it does.

[Persivul]

Whoops that was my bad.

That happens when you're just making it up as you go.

Max was 100% the lynch for the day though.

So why didn't you vote him?

Also, why did you say that I'd look good if Max flips scum? It was apparently a lie, as now you're pushing me.

About bussing - you yourself admitted you have bussed as scum before. Just because you don't do it often doesn't give you this big clear and you're acting like it does.

If someone looks at my links and reviews my scum games, then yes, it should give me a big clear.

[Aneninen]

I really don't like how Persivul keeps explaining he'd never bus. He also seems to discredit whatever SirCakez says. These are strengthtening my scumread and I'm willing to vote for him.

The main thing about him that irked me is his "anen is good player" and also the "texcat was obvious and we lost her" it doesn't seem like it would come from town, feels like fake sympathy. Need to study this more.

The first one irked me too.
As for the second one. TexCat must have died because she'd been Rolecopped before. Not because she was "obvious-something".

Didn't like anen pointing out pers's statement "vigs are negative utility" as scummy - it isn't scummy, imo it is true in many cases.

Even if a Vig hits town, by narrowing the lynch pool they can do valuable service. Right now I think this is exactly what happened. Persivul's play appears to be "off" because his planned mislynch may have been Clumsy. (And to tell the truth, were he still here, I'd vote for him. Although some of his late posts had made me think that I was wrong.)

Anen has been a strong town read because he stopped texcat lynch BUT, if he was scum, he had to do that otherwise he would have violated his meta imo. I am not sure and I need to study this.

You think that I'm better than I actually am.
To make it short: as scum I could have done zillions of easier things when the TexCat wagon emerged. Eg. admitting "something is different in her gameplay" or doing nothing at all.
The next part is against myself, I know, but I'm making it short for you: hard-derailing a wagon is not an alignment tell in my case, I'm doing it both as town and scum.

[Persivul]

I really don't like how Persivul keeps explaining he'd never bus. He also seems to discredit whatever SirCakez says. These are strengthtening my scumread and I'm willing to vote for him.

This is interesting. I have objectively demonstrable meta which indicates that I'm town, but you "don't like" that I bring it up.
I have Cakez as scum by POE and I'm pointing out errors and inconsistencies in his posts, and you don't like that either. That's worse than the actual errors and inconsistencies.

Assuming you're town, I'm beginning to believe you when you say you're not a very good player.

[Persivul]

Persivul's play appears to be "off" because his planned mislynch may have been Clumsy.

Did you ever consider that maybe scum!Persivul's play appears to be off because I'm not scum?

You claim you're not confbiasing but yeah (again assuming you're town), you are.

[SirCakez]

Whoops that was my bad.

That happens when you're just making it up as you go.

Max was 100% the lynch for the day though.

So why didn't you vote him?

Also, why did you say that I'd look good if Max flips scum? It was apparently a lie, as now you're pushing me.

About bussing - you yourself admitted you have bussed as scum before. Just because you don't do it often doesn't give you this big clear and you're acting like it does.

If someone looks at my links and reviews my scum games, then yes, it should give me a big clear.

And you're not?

Because I didn't want to quick hammer?
I thought it was Clumsy before you but that was wrong obviously.

???
You said you've bussed before, you don't have a big clear.

[chilledtea]

All right, I am here. I will be re-reading from day 2 since so little happened from that time.

Sir Cakes, I want to know your opinion on anen.

[Persivul]

@Anen - see cakez last post above. It's discrediting what I say. It's not the first post like this. Are these posts likewise strengthening your scumread on cakez?

[SirCakez]

All right, I am here. I will be re-reading from day 2 since so little happened from that time.

Sir Cakes, I want to know your opinion on anen.

I think he's almost assuredly town from the way Max pushed him.

[chilledtea]

Sooooo, an unrelated question to both cakes and pers. Would you guys consider yourselves good at LYLO/MYLO as town?

[Persivul]

Sooooo, an unrelated question to both cakes and pers. Would you guys consider yourselves good at LYLO/MYLO as town?

Unfortunately, no. In the last one that I recall, me and Firebringer were at each other's throats but were both town. Eventually FB voted me, scum hammered and we lost.

In this game, I'm on cakez not not so much because I can see him as scum through PBPA, but moreso through POE. I'd estimate the chances that you and anen are town as:

chilledtea - 95%. Multiple pleas from the cop that you not be vigged most likely mean a cop inno on you, BUT... it could be something else, for instance she planned on investigating you that night so a vig shot would waste two town shots.

aneninen - 80%. Voted both scum, the 1v1 with with maxous appeared genuine, and ranger, who is a good player, strongly endorsed him. What's bothering me now is that he's reading me on facts rather than motivations.

The main town factor for cakez is that he voted shotty D1. But, that's nullified, because me and anen are also on the shotty wagon early. A couple factors indicating he's scum:

Urgh - I guess this doesn't impress you and anen that much, but to me it's important. People develop unconscious tells when they're deceiving. Suppose you played poker with cakez and noticed that sometimes when he raised he said Urgh before doing so, and sometimes he didn't. You would then watch to see if the Urgh correlated with truth (a good hand), deception (a bluff), or nothing - it was just a random thing he sometimes did. Point being that this isn't some weird and useless method of analysis as cakez wold have you believe it. Real people use such methods to win real money.

Max - not voting him, but excusing that by saying it was clear that max would be the lynch that day. It was also clear that kuroi was going to be lynched when he was, but cakez had no problem voting kuroi.

New topic - have you read alex's ISO? This was the only NK that wasn't a PR. So, why was he selected?

In 382 he had town leans on me, anen, and cakez, so there's no smoking gun. But, note that as the day progressed, he actually hard defended me in 385, 391, and 483. Why would scum!pers accept a NK on alex, who was my main advocate at the time?

[Persivul]

VOTE: Masquerade

Read alex's iso, he was all over masquerade but town reading wguerts. Plus D1 busing is all the rage it seems...

Do people seriously think that I bused a scum partner on D1...then pointed out that D1 busing is a thing?

[SirCakez]

Sooooo, an unrelated question to both cakes and pers. Would you guys consider yourselves good at LYLO/MYLO as town?

I rarely make it to LyLo/MyLo as town actually, so this is unusual for me.
The one time I remember being town in LyLo in a finished game was Open 623 where I was the mislynch for the scum win.

[chilledtea]

Cakes doesn't seem to be scum. If pers is not scum, anen is so I need to see anen vs pers. I am re-reading through day 2 and cakes seems alright in his approach, can't see anything scummy.

[Persivul]

Cakes doesn't seem to be scum. If pers is not scum, anen is so I need to see anen vs pers. I am re-reading through day 2 and cakes seems alright in his approach, can't see anything scummy.

Check out the progression (or rather lack thereof) of cakez' scum read on Masquerade. I haven't brought it up because I also got on Masquerade with little explanation, so it's a wash if you're just looking at me v. cakez. If you're bringing Anen into it, then I'll have more to say on cakez.

[chilledtea]

Also, one needs to remember that bussing both your partners is a thing. Cakes didn't "bus" maxous because I had explicitly told not to hammer, and once I said it's ok to end the day pers hammered. Figuratively speaking cakes, pers and anen all three were on maxous wagon. Cakes never needed to vote maxous for the lynch. So cakes can be town even without voting Maxous.

Pedit : With what masq pulled up on the last part of day 1 - everyone was scum reading him. He voted and unvoted shotty who flipped scum, can't really blame cakes for his scumread on masq.

[chilledtea]

I mean cakes actually tells the vig to shoot masq at the end of day 1, and the vig actually did that if I am not wrong. The vig got JK'd so the kill didn't go through.

[Persivul]

Also check out D3, in which kuroi was lynched in less than 12 hours.

Cakez put a vote up with no explanation. Later max put it at L-1. A little over 4 hours separated the L-1 and the hammer.

I checked cakez' activity in that period, and by my count he made

14 posts

in other games in that 4 hour period.

He certainly checked the game in that period, and kuroi pointed out that she was at L-1.

So, why didn't he unvote?

[Persivul]

I mean cakes actually tells the vig to shoot masq at the end of day 1

And what was his reasoning for that?