Mini 1782 Game Over

[JohnnyFarrar]

Until I pushed max d2?

[a plain farmer]

I was only talking about D1, since that's what Titus seemed to be concerned with.

[JohnnyFarrar]

do the whole game I'm bored

[JohnnyFarrar]

I don't actually have a vote in mind, otherwise I'd be pushing it. The people who I probably won't vote are Titus, Froot, Gar, and Lowell. Anyone else is porbably worth voting at some point, but I dontnhave any really clear reads atm

*squints at reads list, looks at D1* Why on everyone?

I don't think I understand the question

@Johnny, why do you think Garmr is town?

Because I know garmr is stubborn enough to do some stupid bullshit rather than hammer someone he knows is town, so I'm betting on him not knowing Max was town

[Huntress]

The best display of someone who kept actively avoiding both the max and clumsy lynch on D1 is Huntress, despite finding

both

slots scummy/not town lean at one point or another.

Huntress on Clumsy:

This is her finding Clumsy scummy after catching up:

My initial scum reads are Roshar, Froot Loop and Clumsy but there are one or two others who haven't made an impression on me and I need to look back to see why that is.

This is her realizing she was late on the Clumsy wagon:

Still not sure about Clumsy, but I'm liking the wagon on him even less than I liked his earlier posts, and his later posts seem to be better.

That first quote relates to my

initial

reads, made after a first read through the thread. The second quote comes from the post where I followed up on

all

my reads, not just that one, after checking back on stuff, reading some ISOs, and looking at the wagons. Your jumping between the wagons was one of the things that put me off them. In fact, at the time of my post you were on neither of them.

Huntress on Max:

This is her not only saying she'd vote for him if the time came, but saying she didn't like his posting D1.

In my case it's because I'm not very keen on either wagon. Clumsy was an initial scum read but his later posts have been better. It's the other way round with Jake/Max. Jake's early posting looked null to town

but Max not so much. Out of those two I'd prefer to vote Max.

Yes. And I did. So?

This is Huntress' response when I asked her why she wasn't voting for Max when there was one day left in D1.

@Huntress, any reason why you're taking your time voting Max? With less than a day left?

There was more than a day left when I made my last post so I was quite ok with leaving the vote till today.

Call it a reluctance to vote the same way as my main scum read.

Refusing to vote because of someone on the wagon? Really? The reluctance is you not wanting to get your hands dirty.

Nope. The reluctance was me not wanting to join either of the two wagons which you were pushing when I had a strong read on you and only weak reads on them. I did not refuse to vote so don't try to pretend that I did.

Anyone up for a flashwagon on Roshar? Or even Lowell? I'd really prefer to lynch them to either of the current wagons.

This was end of D1,

there was less than a day left

. The fact that you suggested a flash lynch at that point is ludicrous. This is not something town would have considered had town been faced with two slots they knew nothing about (and had found one of them scummy at one point, and the other not a town lean). This is scum knowing both alignments and wanting to demonstrate strong adversity to lynching town.

It's not uncommon for wagons to switch late in the Day, especially when the existing wagons feel like a compromise, which was the impression I had here. I already had a slight town read on Clumsy and your attacks on Jake had made me less eager to vote that slot. There were a few people willing to consider Lowell, if not you, so I thought it worth a chance. Unfortunately, hardly anyone was willing to move.

So you literally disappeared most of D1 and never pushed any other lynch, and you come out in the final hours of the day and demonstrate strong reluctance over the vote, strong enough that you're willing to attempt to divert the lynch with less than a day left. It's so disingenuous.

I was only in the game for half of Day one and a lot of that time was spent catching up. It was not the final hours of the day, but a few days earlier that I expressed doubts over the Clumsy wagon, and my exchanges with you should have made you aware that I wasn't too keen on the other one either. I find it disingenuous that you are ignoring this.

Your D2 performance makes little sense too. Without providing so much as a reason, Max becomes your number 1 scum read. For someone who showed constant reluctance on voting him D1, there is absolutely no progression that led to that stance.

Didn't you read the dialogue between Max and I? That and his selective scumhunting, along with my read on the page 54 tussel between Lowell and yourself, tipped the balance.

[Lowell]

Had to ISO myself to remember what's going on.

VOTE: rosh I don't remember if there's a reason this never gained steam. But look, she's a try-hard, trying hard to look like she's participating.

Slight scumlean on titus as well. Townreads on johnny and huntress. And also I'm sure there's other players.

[Lowell]

townreads also on garmr and smith.

[Titus]

I don't actually have a vote in mind, otherwise I'd be pushing it. The people who I probably won't vote are Titus, Froot, Gar, and Lowell. Anyone else is porbably worth voting at some point, but I dontnhave any really clear reads atm

*squints at reads list, looks at D1* Why on everyone?

I don't think I understand the question

@Johnny, why do you think Garmr is town?

Because I know garmr is stubborn enough to do some stupid bullshit rather than hammer someone he knows is town, so I'm betting on him not knowing Max was town

I was asking why on all of those while Roshar asked just on Garmr.

Shit.

Fixed! The post in question was deleted on request.
~Ircher

[Roshar]

Lowell, describe your town read on Huntress.

[Lowell]

I see myself in her. By which I mean, quick hit posts, minimal explanation, maximum effect and clear reads on players. She's not over-explainy like you try-hards.

[Roshar]

@Froot, what is your read on Huntress?

[Roshar]

That first quote relates to my initial reads, made after a first read through the thread. The second quote comes from the post where I followed up on all my reads, not just that one, after checking back on stuff, reading some ISOs, and looking at the wagons. Your jumping between the wagons was one of the things that put me off them. In fact, at the time of my post you were on neither of them.

You're saying you found Clumsy suspicious on your first read. Then after you started looking at individual players and wagons, you started backing away. That is exactly what I just described. After looking at the wagon, and realizing you were late, you backed away.

Yes. And I did. So?

Again, you say you don't like Max's posting but based on the wagon (me), you back off again.

Nope. The reluctance was me not wanting to join either of the two wagons which you were pushing when I had a strong read on you and only weak reads on them. I did not refuse to vote so don't try to pretend that I did.

You refused to vote until the last day. And how convenient to try to avoid both lynches using wagons as the reason. "I don't like Clumsy's wagon" and "My main scum read is on Max' wagon, my hands are tied".

It's not uncommon for wagons to switch late in the Day, especially when the existing wagons feel like a compromise, which was the impression I had here. I already had a slight town read on Clumsy and your attacks on Jake had made me less eager to vote that slot. There were a few people willing to consider Lowell, if not you, so I thought it worth a chance. Unfortunately, hardly anyone was willing to move.

I was only in the game for half of Day one and a lot of that time was spent catching up. It was not the final hours of the day, but a few days earlier that I expressed doubts over the Clumsy wagon, and my exchanges with you should have made you aware that I wasn't too keen on the other one either. I find it disingenuous that you are ignoring this.

Had your performance

after you caught up

in the day been any different, I would have considered it. But you barely pushed any reads. Your scum read on me for instance. It was me who pushed you to make a case. Otherwise you would have been more than happy to keep it at, "gut read" and "voting players based on playstyle". You give out reads without explanation, with promises of going back/ISOing to see what made you feel that way. And at this point I think it's a pretense. The only read you tried to explain, you didn't bother pushing, then you come out end of D1 trying to divert the lynches, something that was so obviously impossible to do. It's so obvious to me that your motive wasn't in trying to divert the lynch. Your motive was to express your reluctance to go with max.

Didn't you read the dialogue between Max and I? That and his selective scumhunting, along with my read on the page 54 tussel between Lowell and yourself, tipped the balance.

Yes, I read the dialogue between Max and yourself. Several times, actually. And I still don't see how he became your number 1 scum read. Why are you providing it as a reason that because I moved down your list, it made Max more scummy? That is not the way town reaches conclusions about players. That is scum trying to maintain a list.

I will

not

be moving my vote from Huntress today.

[Roshar]

FaQ, I'd also like your read on huntress.

[Roshar]

Also, all votes on my are opportunistic as hell. There's the scum trying to score an easy mislynch type, and there's the townie "well, I don't know wtf is happening but at least if I vote Lowell I'll be able to hem and haw afterwards about how unhelpful he was and I won't take the blame." Make sure if you're voting me you're the first type-- I'll take care of them.

Hey Lowell. Which batch would you place Huntress in when she wanted you divert the max lynch and lynch you instead (D1)?

[Lowell]

^^^ this is the kind of question that makes me think you're not actually trying, but just trying to look like you are.

[FA_Q2]

Ok, I will want to make a couple of checks but right now I think we need to look at the players who did not push any wagon heavily D1 since both flipped town.

I find this rather interesting. You think scum is off the wagons that flipped town? That makes little to no sense at all. It also backs people into a corner - you are scum because you did not push a town flip/you are scum because you did push a town flip.

@Titus: Hmm, I think that potentially makes sense. Need to mull it over. That said, given that it was town v town, why wouldn't wolves have wanted to take the opportunity to look town by pushing a lynch at a time when the outcome didn't much matter?

PS One other thing I think we now can be confident on: we're almost certainly in 10v3 (no SK, no multiball). I'm not entirely sure how that helps us just yet, but at the least I think it does help narrow the game state.

It's not impossible for my analysis to be wrong but why would the wolves be pushing in an apathetic state when town just made two mislynches? I think it's more likely that wolves are just exclusively pushing bad ideas because we didn't FoS/vote them.

This assumes that they were pushed by town. How do you know that info?

[Roshar]

I care very little of your read on me and I am not going to divert this issue. You seem to forget that you also are being sorted.

I'm going to ask you to answer that question again.

[FA_Q2]

FaQ, I'd also like your read on huntress.

Slight town read. I do not get the scum read on huntress. Your case centers around her avoiding the Clumsy wagon but considering huntress was on the Max wagon - its counter and just as likely to be the lynch and just as town - it really is not a valid point.

The other side of your read seems to essentially be a lurker read. I have found that lurker is essentially non-alignment indicative unless there is a reason for the lurking.

[FA_Q2]

I still do not like titus at all. I do not see this as titus town play.

VOTE: titus

[Lowell]

I care very little of your read on me and I am not going to divert this issue. You seem to forget that you also are being sorted.

I'm going to ask you to answer that question again.

LOL okay. Stay strong.

[mhsmith0]

I care very little of your read on me and I am not going to divert this issue. You seem to forget that you also are being sorted.

I'm going to ask you to answer that question again.

LOL okay. Stay strong.

Lowell, that's twice you're not bothering to answer the question. If you think she's

not actually trying, but just trying to look like you are.

then it'd be nice to see more evidence on that front. But either way, it's a really simple question to answer. I buy that she's either trying to sort you or at least putting in legitimate effort at pretending she is. Either way, it ought to be an easy enough question to answer. Here it is again:

Also, all votes on my are opportunistic as hell. There's the scum trying to score an easy mislynch type, and there's the townie "well, I don't know wtf is happening but at least if I vote Lowell I'll be able to hem and haw afterwards about how unhelpful he was and I won't take the blame." Make sure if you're voting me you're the first type-- I'll take care of them.

Hey Lowell. Which batch would you place Huntress in when she wanted you divert the max lynch and lynch you instead (D1)?

Actually, Lowell, I'm also curious where your town read on me comes from. Ditto on Garmr.

PS FAQ2, you have my attention. Not sure I agree yet but I'm listening. I recall something RC doing a while ago bugging me (I think it was the whole "oh the mod just cleared FA" bit). That plus your case isn't enough to vote, but it's enough to make me want to dig into that slot in further depth.

[Lowell]

I told you what I thought of huntress... this is a clown quesiton, bro. Stop buddying rosh, you're going to look foolish.

Also FA is town. Not sure if I mentioned that before.

[Ircher]

Vote Count - Day 3 VC #2

Titus (1) - FA_Q2
Mhsmith (0) -
Huntress (1) - Rosh
Froot (0) -
Johnny (0) -
FA_Q2 (0) -
Garmr (0) -
Plain (1) - Garmr
Lowell (0) -
Rosh (1) - Lowell
No Lynch (0) -
Not Voting (6) - Mhsmith, Titus, Johnny, Huntress, Froot, Plain

Deadline

Day 3 will end on May 13 8:30 PM EST or in (expired on 2016-05-13 20:30:00).

Lynch Threshold

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Mod Notes

None

[Garmr]

The best display of someone who kept actively avoiding both the max and clumsy lynch on D1 is Huntress, despite finding

both

slots scummy/not town lean at one point or another.

Huntress on Clumsy:

This is her finding Clumsy scummy after catching up:

My initial scum reads are Roshar, Froot Loop and Clumsy but there are one or two others who haven't made an impression on me and I need to look back to see why that is.

This is her realizing she was late on the Clumsy wagon:

Still not sure about Clumsy, but I'm liking the wagon on him even less than I liked his earlier posts, and his later posts seem to be better.

****************************

Huntress on Max:

This is her not only saying she'd vote for him if the time came, but saying she didn't like his posting D1.

In my case it's because I'm not very keen on either wagon. Clumsy was an initial scum read but his later posts have been better. It's the other way round with Jake/Max. Jake's early posting looked null to town

but Max not so much. Out of those two I'd prefer to vote Max.

This is Huntress' response when I asked her why she wasn't voting for Max when there was one day left in D1.

@Huntress, any reason why you're taking your time voting Max? With less than a day left?

There was more than a day left when I made my last post so I was quite ok with leaving the vote till today.

Call it a reluctance to vote the same way as my main scum read.

Refusing to vote because of someone on the wagon? Really? The reluctance is you not wanting to get your hands dirty.

Anyone up for a flashwagon on Roshar? Or even Lowell? I'd really prefer to lynch them to either of the current wagons.

This was end of D1,

there was less than a day left

. The fact that you suggested a flash lynch at that point is ludicrous. This is not something town would have considered had town been faced with two slots they knew nothing about (and had found one of them scummy at one point, and the other not a town lean). This is scum knowing both alignments and wanting to demonstrate strong adversity to lynching town.



When she finally votes for Maxous after prodding from me:

So how about Roshar or Lowell as alternatives?


I don't think there's a realistic chance of lynching Roshar now, judging by recent posts and looking back at the ISO's of those who haven't posted yet today,

so I'm moving my vote now but I'll be around for the rest of the day and I'm still very much open to a lynch on Lowell if enough people are willing

.

Vote: Maxous

"I really don't want to vote max, but I have no choice. Look how reluctant I am!"

So you literally disappeared most of D1 and never pushed any other lynch, and you come out in the final hours of the day and demonstrate strong reluctance over the vote, strong enough that you're willing to attempt to divert the lynch with less than a day left. It's so disingenuous.

Your D2 performance makes little sense too. Without providing so much as a reason, Max becomes your number 1 scum read. For someone who showed constant reluctance on voting him D1, there is absolutely no progression that led to that stance.


VOTE: Huntress




What do you think of my analysis,

Garmr

?

I'm finding your vote on APF interesting.

I'm unsure how I feel about it I find huntress hard to read. Maybe I would lynch her but I prefer my vote.

[Titus]

Ok, I will want to make a couple of checks but right now I think we need to look at the players who did not push any wagon heavily D1 since both flipped town.

I find this rather interesting. You think scum is off the wagons that flipped town? That makes little to no sense at all. It also backs people into a corner - you are scum because you did not push a town flip/you are scum because you did push a town flip.

@Titus: Hmm, I think that potentially makes sense. Need to mull it over. That said, given that it was town v town, why wouldn't wolves have wanted to take the opportunity to look town by pushing a lynch at a time when the outcome didn't much matter?

PS One other thing I think we now can be confident on: we're almost certainly in 10v3 (no SK, no multiball). I'm not entirely sure how that helps us just yet, but at the least I think it does help narrow the game state.

It's not impossible for my analysis to be wrong but why would the wolves be pushing in an apathetic state when town just made two mislynches? I think it's more likely that wolves are just exclusively pushing bad ideas because we didn't FoS/vote them.

This assumes that they were pushed by town. How do you know that info?

The first is a misunderstanding or misrep. You can be on an wagon without pushing it. I'm looking at more apathetic shit.

I'm assuming people play to wincon. If that's not true, then scumhunting is useless and we might as well play darts.