Open 633: Near Vanilla-GAME OVER

[Ranger]

This is MYLO so pretty damn sure my scum reads on kill and Rach are spot on given this power wagon attempt.

Well I'll have you know: the reason I've defended Killthestory is that I've been under the impression he was a PR. So with you claiming jailkeeper, if he's not the roleblocker, then I recant my townread there.

I cannot see any world where Ranger quickhammers the day before LyLo because she is getting lynched as town.

The reason I hammered was experience. In Pokemon Episode 4, I was the first to call School of Science scum. I voted elsewhere, but was the first to make the case against them. I continued making my case against them. While not voting them. Then,

explicitly because of

my case

, a wagon formed on them. But when I

did

switch, it was called opportunistic and I was lynched. Case one, lesson learned: don't wait too long to vote a scumread, which Masquerade was.

Case two, and even more relevant to this game: Open 625. I had the three scum pegged as early as here. (I was wrong on which type was which, but correct on the names.)

iraonavp (3) – BROseidon, Heat, Jeanne11
BROseidon (2) - Ranger, Iraonavp
Ranger (2) - Performer, Beeboy

A wagon formed on me. I knew iraonavp was scum, and BROseidon was scum, and thought BROseidon was the hider guilty (he was), but couldn't get the lynch there. I also knew beeboy was scum, but knew that if BROseidon and iraonavp both voted me, or worse, town voted me, I would be lynched. So, what did I do? I hammered scum. Knowing it would look bad, but doing so anyway because if I let scum live, I could have been lynched.

In a cruel twist of irony, guess what happened the next day? I decided

not

to hammer a player I knew was scum, in spite of 100% knowing they were scum. And know what happened? Surprise, surprise. The very next page, I was lynched. Because I didn't hammer scum when I had the chance.

So, yes.

I hammered Masquerade, my strongest scumread, when my life was in danger, because the chance of lynching scum > lynching me.

VOTE: No Lynch

The correct play here is to lynch. If a kill is stopped, either by MagnaofIllusion or the roleblocker, then we gain an extra day phase. No-lynching is therefore a scum-oriented move.

So too is the wagon on me, btw. I find it no coincidence that all three of my scumreads (Ollie, RachMarie, and Titus) all joined it immediately.

[Killthestory]

kek I thought I was obvtown but apparently PR has something to with it

False prophet

[Ranger]

I hammered Masquerade, my strongest scumread, when my life was in danger, because the chance of lynching scum > lynching me.

And this is really common sense.

Heck, on the site I come from, survivalism is a null tell for good reason. We don't lynch by majority there (it's plurality at deadline), but if two wagons exist, a town player will vote their other wagon because they are town and don't know the alignment of the other person who could be mafia, whereas a mafia player will vote their other wagon because they know their lynch would be bad. Obviously, wifom exceptions exist (deliberately not voting the other wagon, either for town cred or to frame them), but it's the general rule.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I cannot see any world where Ranger quickhammers the day before LyLo because she is getting lynched as town. I understand why you want to slow down this day and get other things done, but it shouldn't end with anything but a lynch on Ranger.

Please explain to me in what universe the following -

Hammering a Town read "just because I was bored and wanted get to scum-hunting the next day" followed up by ZERO scum-hunting the next day

is very Town while

Hammering a Scum read when you are being pressed yourself

is Obv-scum.

I'll be waiting.

You've given KillthVI a pass for being a useless Troll all game long and that time is up. I loved what Tammy was doing with the slot but I'm passed the point where I care about what anyone else thinks.

[MagnaofIllusion]

In fact anyone who wants to take a crack at that explanation for me can do so.

Also, while they are at it, can explain how I shouldn't see obv-scum action in Kill / Rach / Ollie's immediate votes in MYLO. Because to have me consider all of them Town for that I have to think they are all too stupid to even begin to think that today is a day scum only need 2 Town to drop ill-placed votes for a mislynch to fly.

On the other side of the coin I see tons of scum motivation for trying to get a quick lynch in MYLO against a player who had significant suspicion from players like myself and Imperium for several days.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Well I'll have you know: the reason I've defended Killthestory is that I've been under the impression he was a PR. So with you claiming jailkeeper, if he's not the roleblocker, then I recant my townread there.

What in the hell are you talking about a Roleblocker for Ranger? This is an open format game and no Roleblocker exists.

Seriously - if you aren't scum this game (and the only reason I am doubting that is two of my other scum reads in Kill and Rach look to be trying to stage a quicklynch in MYLO) your play has been absolutely horrid.

[MagnaofIllusion]

crap MoI could be correct

@ mod could you please update the OP with what the dead players were? its confusing not being able to see at a glance how many are town and so on without having to look at all the flips again.

Just went through the mod's ISO and we have had 5 townie flips and no scum flips uggh

VOTE: No Lynch

Yeah, this is scum. You've pretended to read through the game in your replace in. Not buying this "Oh, I didn't know that we haven't lynched scum and all these Town are dead" routine for a second. The backpedalling when you get called out on your obv-scum play is pretty blatant.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MoI you're gonna have to argue against these things to convince me that Ranger is not scum, & consider them yourself...

I'm going to have to do exactly jack shit Ollie. In fact you need to be working very hard to convince me I should listen to you at all given you dropped a vote in your first post in MYLO. Because that is either scum play or stupid, stupid Town play. Either way I'm not about to take council from you on smart play at this stage.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I've been on my best behavior all game. I've been summarily ignored. I'm tired of being ignored. I don't think I'm going to be nice anymore ...

[Nosferatu]

VOTE: No Lynch
I'll assume MoI isn't lying because no one is CCing.

[RachMarie]

I have not looked at the game in days, we were in night remember? I still feel that quick hammer, and other factors, including the fact Nacho and Tammy are scum reading Ranger, makes me think I am right about the lynch. I did a quick scan of the OP like I usually do, and derped on the fact that though there are still 8 players, that we have not yet hit scum. Math is most definitely NOT my best subject, especially right off the bat as soon as the game opens after being in night for several days. I had no reason to look at the game then.

Waiting for more from Imp who is my strongest town read. Though MoI is totally off base on some of his reads, still feel he also is solidly town. Will do some ISOs and see if I can peg others more.

Still feel Kill is also town.
@ Ranger totally wrong hello we are at MYLO if we lynch another townie we are history. So yeah NL is a much better play atm. Stop fishing for PRs too, its nearly vanilla remember? Open set up check the OP if you need a refresher, but i think you are trying to get us to lynch another townie so you and your scum budz can win ze game

[Ranger]

What in the hell are you talking about a Roleblocker for Ranger? This is an open format game and no Roleblocker exists.

Derp. Doctor.

I forgot which the other PR was. I remembered it was JK + role that's half of a JK, but misremembered it as JK-roleblocker rather than JK-doctor.

Point still holds, though. I thought Killthestory was a PR. I was defending him off of this assumption. If the assumption was wrong, then I renege my townread.

I'm not sure correct play here would be for the doctor to claim though. If they stay silent, you're guaranteed to live until they either die or are outed. At the same time, if the doctor is a suspected player, then lynching them is almost an auto-loss.

VOTE: No Lynch

My point holds, even with a doctor instead of a roleblocker. No-lynching is a pro-scum move. What do we gain from another death? Lylo instead of mylo, with a player probably very unlikely to be lynched in the first place dead. Not an ideal state. What do we gain if nobody dies? Wifom on whether it was a kill protected, a kill blocked, or scum deliberately no-killing. Not an ideal state.

What do we gain from lynching? If we lynch incorrectly and a kill is stopped, we get an extra lynch, lylo instead of mylo, with the knowledge that scum thought they had won and now are at a severe disadvantage. Ideal state. If we lynch correctly and a kill is stopped, we get a scum flip, AND we're not in lylo, or even mylo. We're a day ahead, with a mislynch to spare. Ideal state. If we lynch correctly and no kill is stopped, we'll still be in mylo tomorrow, but we'll have a scum flip and the info from the nightkilled player having been town. Still an ideal state.

The

only

scenario in which lynching today ends in a scum win is if we lynch incorrectly

and

the scum kill is not stopped. Ergo, we're lynching today.

[Titus]

I'm pretty sure Ranger's scum or PR after that hammer. Too survivalistic for anything else.

Given you claim PR Mol, it makes PR less likely.

Also, who did you jail prior nights? It will help us determine who wasn't sent to do the kill if you're town. (Doc should not answer this question unless we get a CC or doubt).

Mol, did I miss your response prior to this, or did you deem it not good to answer?

[Titus]

I've been on my best behavior all game. I've been summarily ignored. I'm tired of being ignored. I don't think I'm going to be nice anymore ...

What is your own read on Ranger? Easy mislynch or obvscum bus for cred going on here?

[Titus]

This is MYLO so pretty damn sure my scum reads on kill and Rach are spot on given this power wagon attempt.

Well I'll have you know: the reason I've defended Killthestory is that I've been under the impression he was a PR. So with you claiming jailkeeper, if he's not the roleblocker, then I recant my townread there.

I cannot see any world where Ranger quickhammers the day before LyLo because she is getting lynched as town.

The reason I hammered was experience. In Pokemon Episode 4, I was the first to call School of Science scum. I voted elsewhere, but was the first to make the case against them. I continued making my case against them. While not voting them. Then,

explicitly because of

my case

, a wagon formed on them. But when I

did

switch, it was called opportunistic and I was lynched. Case one, lesson learned: don't wait too long to vote a scumread, which Masquerade was.

Case two, and even more relevant to this game: Open 625. I had the three scum pegged as early as here. (I was wrong on which type was which, but correct on the names.)

iraonavp (3) – BROseidon, Heat, Jeanne11
BROseidon (2) - Ranger, Iraonavp
Ranger (2) - Performer, Beeboy

A wagon formed on me. I knew iraonavp was scum, and BROseidon was scum, and thought BROseidon was the hider guilty (he was), but couldn't get the lynch there. I also knew beeboy was scum, but knew that if BROseidon and iraonavp both voted me, or worse, town voted me, I would be lynched. So, what did I do? I hammered scum. Knowing it would look bad, but doing so anyway because if I let scum live, I could have been lynched.

In a cruel twist of irony, guess what happened the next day? I decided

not

to hammer a player I knew was scum, in spite of 100% knowing they were scum. And know what happened? Surprise, surprise. The very next page, I was lynched. Because I didn't hammer scum when I had the chance.

So, yes.

I hammered Masquerade, my strongest scumread, when my life was in danger, because the chance of lynching scum > lynching me.

VOTE: No Lynch

The correct play here is to lynch. If a kill is stopped, either by MagnaofIllusion or the roleblocker, then we gain an extra day phase. No-lynching is therefore a scum-oriented move.

So too is the wagon on me, btw. I find it no coincidence that all three of my scumreads (Ollie, RachMarie, and

Titus) all joined it immediately

.

I never actually voted your wagon today....

[Ranger]

I never actually voted your wagon today....

Yeah.

You did worse:

Sat on the sidelines supporting it

without

joining.

[Titus]

In mylo...

[RachMarie]

How in the he double hockey stick can you say it benefits town to lynch without a specific cop guilty or some such, Ranger? That is the only time it is better to lynch in MYLO. If we mislynch today town LOSES. I realize you are trying to win for you and your scum budz, but ain't gonna happen chica. NOT on my watch.

@Titus why not do VCA? I realize its not as useful with no scum flips, but we do need to peg more folk somehow. There are five of us and 3 of them.

Pretty sure Ranger is one of the 3. need to figure out her scum budz though and that is not easy without a flip

Ranger stop fishing for PRs

[RachMarie]

MoI I am not ignoring you.

We have all 3 scumz still alive, so yeah its not like you can be SURE you can stop the kill. If we lynch today, and the kill goes through tonight, then wham game over. So yes NL is not necessarily proscum.

Doc should NOT claim period in this setup, having jk jail a scum, and doc protect jk is our best chance of keeping from a scum kill. Lemme see if I can find the game where DC kitty and I made a solid block for much of the game. Slimer was the mod was a whacky game lol.

[Ranger]

How in the he double hockey stick can you say it benefits town to lynch without a specific cop guilty or some such, Ranger?

Oh, you know.

Just because of

all the reasons that I listed

for why no-lynch is absolutely not the best move given we have a DOCTOR who can stop kills and a JAILKEEPER who can stop kills in

two different methods

. (Speaking of which, MagnaofIllusion should absolutely

not

be claiming his prior targets, because it gives scum insight into who he is likely to target tonight, something we very much do not want to give them.) Ergo, lynching incorrectly today is

not

an auto-loss. Lynching correctly today also gives us a chance of tomorrow not being mylo, not being lylo, but

us having a mislynch to spare

.

So, lynching today?
-If on scum and we stop a kill, extra day.
-If on scum and no stopped kill, tomorrow's mylo. Rinse and repeat until our town PRs are both dead. (Keeping in mind, any and all lynches continue the trend set for today's lynch.)
-If on town and we stop a kill, tomorrow is lylo. This is ideal because it gives a TOWN-CONTROLLED death rather than scum-controlled, scum likely needed to all be on the mislynch wagon (ergo, we have a significant chance of having found all the scum), and now we're in a numerically-superior situation.
The "but if we lynch wrong, we lose!" is possible, but is an appeal to fear which simply put does not match the actual math, here.

Compare that to no-lynching today.
-If nobody dies, nothing is changed. At all. We don't even know why nobody died. Scum may have done so deliberately. Maybe they shot the doc protect. Maybe they shot the JK target. Maybe they were blocked by the JK. We won't know.
-If somebody dies, that is a SCUM-CONTROLLED death rather than town-controlled. It is likely on a player we wouldn't have lynched anyway, and their death gives us nothing we don't already have. The suspect pool will be identical.

This is simple logistics, and any town player should be able to see these calculations.

[RachMarie]

From the Wiki:

S-M-goon.png 3 Mafia Goons
S-T-vanilla.png 9 Vanilla Townies
S-T-doc.png 1 Doctor
S-T-jailkeeper.png 1 Jailkeeper

THERE IS NO MAFIA RB, only mafia goons.

Slimer's Nearly Vanilla game

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=28239

DC was the JK and I was the doc and we were both outed on day 1, yet we pulled off the game and won it for town with unorthodox play.

[Ranger]

-If on town and we stop a kill, tomorrow is lylo. This is ideal because it gives a TOWN-CONTROLLED death rather than scum-controlled, scum likely needed to all be on the mislynch wagon (ergo, we have a significant chance of having found all the scum), and now we're in a numerically-superior situation.

Furthermore, if this happens, then scum are guaranteed to have tried a nightkill for the win. In short, we will 100%

know

that if we mislynch today, and yet there is a tomorrow, that their kill was stopped. Depending on doc/JK targets, this may either give us conftown or confscum.

[Ranger]

THERE IS NO MAFIA RB, only mafia goons.

Exactly.

We have a TOWN JAILKEEPER.
We have a TOWN DOCTOR.
Both can stop the nightkill, and the only thing which can stop them is the JK stopping the doctor.

This is, absolutely, why lynching today is 100% optimal.

Scum want a no-lynch. It allows them to PR-fish, be it in their nightkill or in a lack thereof by looking at players' reactions at daystart to see if a player has tipped their hand to being the doctor. It allows them to off a universal townread. It allows them to kill someone suspicious of them. It allows them to kill a charismatic player. Heck! If MagnaofIllusion got really unlucky and jailkept the doctor, it might even allow them to take out

the only player we know is 100% town

.

Town want to lynch. It can hit scum. It can give us an extra day. Even if wrong, it's not the end of the game, and we could use the info from being wrong to get it right.

It's that simple.

[Imperium]

We shouldn't be no lynching today because of the possibility of stopping a kill and gaining an extra mislynch.

[RachMarie]

ok lets take scenario of we lynch another townie today making it 7 players which would be 4 townies and 3 scum.

Say Jk guesses correctly and jails scum woot good job
Say doc protects jk so he cant be shot woot good job
there are still TWO scum left who can kill. leaving a 2/3 chance that the scum doing the kill is not jailed and goes after another townie figuring doc will protect jk

Yeah then its 3 3 and scum has a perfect win, I would rather NL

I have not yet figured out who for sure are your scum budz, Ranger so yeah, dont feel good about leaving it to chance we lynch another townie at this point.