Mini 1782 Game Over

[Ircher]

Vote Count - Day 5 VC #2

Titus (1) - Rosh
Froot (0) -
Johnny (0) -
FA_Q2 (1) - Plain
Plain (0) -
Lowell (0) -
Rosh (0) -
No Lynch (0) -
Not Voting (5) - Froot, Johnny, FA_Q2, Lowell

Deadline

Day 5 ends on June 6 5:30 PM EST DST+1 (GMT-4) or in (expired on 2016-06-06 17:30:00)!

Lynch Threshold

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch!

Mod Notes

Ircher V/LA 5/30 to 6/3; Dier will manage during that time.
Lowell V/LA til 5/31.

[Lowell]

I'm here, fat fingering phone.

@rosh, I hate to say this, because i want to be right about Titus scum, but doesn't the way you set this up pretty much guarantee a scum no kill last night, given your every other night role claim?

[Lowell]

Will try to check in again before tues, but no promises.

[Roshar]

I'm here, fat fingering phone.

@rosh, I hate to say this, because i want to be right about Titus scum, but doesn't the way you set this up pretty much guarantee a scum no kill last night, given your every other night role claim?

How does it guarantee a scum no kill? As in scum wouldn't NK so that whoever I role blocked will look guilty instead of being confirm town?

I didn't exactly set anything up. It's common sense for whoever I block to be confirm town if a NK goes through. I just explained my predictions for D5. In hindsight, I could have done without that bit, as it may have helped scum come up with a possible no kill idea, but like I really find it overall disadvantageous for scum to settle for only one kill (mislynch).

I'm going to agree with APF that I didn't like FaQ's only two possible scenarios not taking into account that Titus and I could both be town. Saying one of us is definitely scum has no basis. And it conveniently allows for him to point the finger and lynch me tomorrow, if Titus flips town. As much as I couldn't see Titus' theory happening, and disagreed about my mislynch ever being possible, FaQ's post lays the groundwork for it.

VOTE: Unvote for now.

[Froot Loop]

If FA_Q2 were scum, he could kill APF yesterday and win the game with two MLs from me/Lowell/Johnny. Same if it were Lowell, Johnny or me. D6 would be tough but notice that this would be practically the same as a no-kill day 7 lylo, just with a confirmed player as well. It's definitely not substantially better or worse.

So it seems that the setup was designed with the following interactions in mind: there is some town role(s) that the jailkeeper is meant to block. The roleblocker can then block the jailkeeper's block, allowing the role to do whatever it does.

One of those town roles could be the Follower (Nos). But follower is a rather weak role, so I would expect there to also be another role for the JK to block. Titus's doc claim fits the bill.

I don't know what to think about the quote from the rules. Natural action resolution is used in all normal games I think, and clarification of the RB/JK resolution is needed because they have partially the same functions. But yeah, having a JK in the game raises the questions APF mentions.

Having said that, Nos was the only investigative role we've seen so far, which makes it pretty powerful in this game. Also, the only role we've seen that was every night. If there's another role, like Titus', then scum have no chance of blocking both PRs in a night. AND with the RB as well, it's possible both will go through. Does that seem too town-sided?

We can get more information about this with a claim as well. I'm not saying at the moment it's necessary, but if it's a large contributing factor, it would help us to find out if there's any other role which was meant, or could, interact with the JK. I don't know about claiming. If there's some odd-night PRs, they'll be active tonight.

@Titus

- can you clarify your 1915? I don't really understand it.

[Titus]

@Fruit Loop, it was stating that scum would likely no kill at some point and the foundation for that.

[Froot Loop]

Ok, I don't really understand the logic. Why is killing APF followed by a no lynch? And why do scum have to no kill?

Titus is scummiest for me from yesterday and now this no-kill. I think the likeliest situation is that Titus is scum, I think I've considered why scum might no-kill but I still think it's unlikely.

When I was thinking about no-killing, the only player I can see who would truly benefit and take the risk of no-killing in order to spread suspicion was Titus, hahaha. If she no-killed and was blocked, that's super unlucky, but I don't think any other player would take the risk of a whole extra day in order to spread suspicion.

[Dierfire]

Vote Count - Day 5 VC #3

Titus (0) -
Froot (0) -
Johnny (0) -
FA_Q2 (1) - Plain
Plain (0) -
Lowell (0) -
Rosh (0) -
No Lynch (0) -
Not Voting (6) - Froot, Johnny, FA_Q2, Lowell, Titus, Rosh

Deadline

Day 5 ends on June 6 5:30 PM EST DST+1 (GMT-4) or in (expired on 2016-06-06 17:30:00)!

Lynch Threshold

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch!

Mod Notes

Ircher V/LA 5/30 to 6/3; Dier will manage during that time.
Lowell V/LA til 5/31.
Prodding JohnnyFarrar

[JohnnyFarrar]

So this game is kind of boring now. I haven't read most of the discussion for the last like 2 pages, but I'm hoping somewhere in it you guys talk about how weird it is that there are two roles that can stop scum from killing during even nights, because that just seems ridiculous to me.

[a plain farmer]

@Johnny: Yes, that is rather odd if Titus is in fact a doctor. I suppose scum could have something like an even-night strongman (in which case they might be a bit more incentivized to have killed last night, but one could still argue that no-kill was better). The jailkeeper could be intended to block the doctor, but then the scum would have to know who the doctor is.

@Everyone: So where are we at right now? Five people have at some point said they're most suspecting of Titus, and yet she has no votes. Are you still leaning towards Titus, or are you now leaning towards someone else?

Also, here's what would likely happen in both a kill and no-kill scenario:

Spoiler: Kill and no-kill scenarios

Here's where everyone stood on Night 4:

Froot
APF
Rosh

Titus

Scumpool:

Johnny
Lowell
FAQ

Note that I'd say Johnny is probtown and not in the scum pool, so in the scenarios below when there are only two scumpool candidates left, scum would be in a bad spot if that scum isn't Johnny.

If scum kill N4:

Kill APF Night 4, Day 5:

Froot
Rosh
Rosh block target (removed from scumpool)

Scumpool1
Scumpool2
Scumpool3

Lynch one of scumpool, Kill Rosh Night 5, Day 6:

Froot
Rosh block target (removed from scumpool)

Scumpool1
Scumpool2

Two remaining in scumpool (for example, Johnny and Lowell).

If scum no-kill N4:

No kill N4, Day 5:

Froot
Rosh
APF

Scumpool1
Scumpool2
Scumpool3
Scumpool4

Lynch from scumpool, Kill APF Night 5, Day 6:

Froot

Rosh???

Scumpool1
Scumpool2
Scumpool3

IF Day 6 Lynch from scumpool,

No kill Night 6, Day 7:

Froot

Rosh??????

Scumpool1
Scumpool2

IF Day 6 Lynch Rosh,

Kill Froot Night 6, Day 7:

Scumpool1
Scumpool2
Scumpool3

TL;DR- If scum had killed last night and survived Day 5, they'd have to 1v1 with either the towniest or second-towniest member of the scumpool in order to win.

If scum no-killed last night, then there would either be 2 other members of the scumpool remaining on the last day, or only 1 other but also a lot of suspicion on Rosh.

[Dierfire]

Prodding FA_Q2

[Roshar]

Reading up

[Froot Loop]

It's more likely for me that scum no-kill than Roshar is scum, so I don't think there'd be that much suspicion on Roshar in reality. But I think it's more likely that Titus is scum than scum no-killed last night.

@APF

- Do you think scum would risk having Roshar alive N6 going into D7? I feel like that'd throw even more suspicion around, which is more likely to get thrown at the scum player if they no-kill and are blocked with only four players left in the game.

I wasn't voting because I thought it'd be best to have some discussion first, but that seems to be over so I'll vote now.

Vote: Titus

[a plain farmer]

I've said the important points against FAQ, and there isn't much separating him from Titus or Lowell in my mind. So I wouldn't be deathly opposed to lynching Titus.

@APF

- Do you think scum would risk having Roshar alive N6 going into D7? I feel like that'd throw even more suspicion around, which is more likely to get thrown at the scum player if they no-kill and are blocked with only four players left in the game.

I suppose scum would at least try to kill Rosh. At worst, they end up same as if they didn't submit a kill. But we may be going too far with their speculation. If Titus is in fact a doctor, then there's a very high chance the scum have some kind of Strongman, be it x-shot or even/odd-night. And if they have a Strongman, then who knows. They'd probably kill Rosh if they felt like she was going to block the other scum, or else they'd kill the last green name.

[Titus]

No kill solves the game. It's still Lowell guys. I'm like 85% on him.

[Titus]

@APF, Suppose for a moment scum had a strongman. Why would they use it? When they can chain lynch the PRs?

[a plain farmer]

I agree the scum probably wouldn't have used a strongman last night, since the chance that they'd be blocked and "cleared" is too small compared to the chance that someone else would be blocked.

[Titus]

Can you at least take a look at him? I feel pretty ignored on Lowell and the last two lynches have been right when looking at my vote patterns. Plus, he's hammered without a claim twice now.

[Roshar]

Right. I don't think scum would have considered making me look suspicious by the no kill, after I got Huntress lynched D4. When she was town read by everybody after I created a case against her.
If I was scum, do you think I'd get scum to no kill N2? And then proceed to get huntress lynched? Answer this for me. This an enormous set-back for scum. 1) Scum would have missed a kill N2. 2)I'd have killed a scum buddy. One who was majorly town read at the time of my claim.

So, the whole scum making me look suspicious argument by using a, "no kill" on even days does not resonate with me.

If we lynch Titus, and she flips town, then scum is actually using 'no kills' to avoid getting a confirmed town and to get an mislynch. Which means I'll most probably be NK'd D5. Why? So that scum can comfortably night kill N6. So, APF, I don't think scum would leave me alive tomorrow (in your no kill scenario). This would cost them a NK on D6 (if I block scum, or if they decide to 'no kill' again).

I honestly think we won't go forward without a titus lynch. While I didn't like the FaQ suggestion that there are only two possible scenario (i.e one scum between Titus and I), there have been multiple responses that say they may find me suspicious upon a Titus town flip. So, as of yet, this isn't amounting to very much to me.
Before this whole wifom scenario, I found titus suspicious for her response to my Huntress suggestion, her fragmented superficial reasons for voting Lowell ("your play has been terrible all game"), Heur's empty slight scum read on Titus (and interestingly when Titus was being voted by everyone, Heur showed unwillingness to vote Titus) and despite the fact that I don't know the most about game mechanics, I find it suspiciously convenient that titus would claim a PR when at L-1.



VOTE: Titus

[Titus]

Yeah, this is confbiased shit.

Gg Lowell. Best scumplay ever due to IRL shit.

[Froot Loop]

@APF, Suppose for a moment scum had a strongman. Why would they use it? When they can chain lynch the PRs?

Who's chain lynching PRs? There's discussion today about no-killing vs. you being scum. Roshar came out D3, identified a scum player and lynched them. You haven't.

Do you think we'd come to the conclusion that it's more likely that Roshar is scum than scum no-killed?

I don't think it's possible that scum would have a plan that involved lynching Roshar. I definitely don't think that there's any situation where they would think that getting a lynch on Roshar would be easy.

PEdit

: see Roshar's reasons above for why it's unlikely she'd be under suspicion.

I still don't understand your references to no-kills solving the game.

[Froot Loop]

Can you at least take a look at him? I feel pretty ignored on Lowell and the last two lynches have been right when looking at my vote patterns. Plus, he's hammered without a claim twice now.

What's your case on Lowell? Can you post some points so that I can have a look?

[Titus]

@Froot Loop,

Then what, they ML me and just shoot Roshar tonight or strongarm him the night after.

Second, Lowell did nothing on D1 or D2. He quick voted Huntress after placing doubt for Huntress forcing Roshar's claim. He quickhammered both Huntress and HA. He hasn't posted any content for 2 game days. Those two days, scum were lynched.

[Roshar]

Lowell did nothing on D1 or D2.

Firstly, inactivity does not equal scum. But actually did do things D1. He was a strong Clumsy lynch supporter. He was also willing to lynch Max. And those responses are town to me. D2, he made a case against me. And at first, you stated you'd join him and vote for me, (once you saw proper context) if it wasn't for the fact that you wanted to push Max. So it's untrue to say he did nothing D1 and D2.

[Roshar]

He quick voted Huntress after placing doubt for Huntress forcing Roshar's claim.

I assume you mean he placed doubt on my slot, to force me to claim.

I find it far less likely for mafia to scum read me D3 and town read Huntress. I find it far more likely for scum to distance themselves. Look at Garmr's response when I asked him what his read on Huntress was. This is imo, an expected scum response. He shows he's not adverse to lynching Huntress. Here it is again:

I'm unsure how I feel about it I find huntress hard to read. Maybe I would lynch her but I prefer my vote.

I don't see how Lowell's actions were pushing me to claim. He had scum read me through D2. Before I made a Huntress case. So, this was not a ploy he came up with to get me to claim.
He town read Huntress. But so did APF, Froot, Mhs, FaQ (I think). So, what about Lowell's town read in particular made you think he was trying to draw out a claim?

By the same reasoning, you'd think froot is scum b/c she kept pointing out the faults in my argument against Huntress. So, this push on Lowell are for reasons which you could use to scum read other slots.