Newbie 1718 [Game Over!] Mafia

[gigabyteTroubadour]

House, before I decide whether or not to return to the wagon, what happens if DoctorPepper

isn't

scum? Because if DP is right in that this is a scum-motivated wagon (which he can really only be right about if he's town (or if this is an elaborate bus that imo is pointless unless DP ultimately is not lynched)), pretty much all of the people I've townread are scummier. Seeing an "intent to hammer" post pretty much tells me you're ready to lynch, but I think it's way too early to consider that. I, at the very least, want to know what DP flipping either alignment means.

See there are good reaction tests and there are bad ones.

Getting to a point where a hammer is necessary and getting a role claim 4 days into the 14 day Day phase of the game probably isn't a good reaction test.

The way to avoid a derp hammer would be "someone unvote until we get enough info"

We

don't

want a roleclaim, which is why I'm really uncertain about House's reaction test. I still don't think DP is town, but I want House to answer my question because I really was hoping that it was going to be brought up before L-1.

[House]

Getting back on his wagon now would be meaningless.

You shouldn't have left it. Me having to describe my interests in the wagon ruined any potential usefulness it had.

[House]

There only useful thing that has come from this wagon is a more solid townread on Giga than I already had (which makes me doubly curious about RC's Giga read).

I was hoping to get everyone's reaction to L-1, not just his and DP's. Though I did get Harlii's earlier, so there is that.

Would have been nicer if everyone had an opportunity to weigh in on it while it was ongoing, though.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

There only useful thing that has come from this wagon is a more solid townread on Giga than I already had (which makes me doubly curious about RC's Giga read).

I was hoping to get everyone's reaction to L-1, not just

his

and DP's. Though I did get Harlii's earlier, so there is that.

Would have been nicer if everyone had an opportunity to weigh in on it while it was ongoing, though.

kind of irrelevant to the game but if you dislike using they as a singular pronoun, do you mind using she? Thanks.

And on that note: RC, do you use she or he? Your main says she, but your alt says he so I'm really not sure.

---

Anyway, my plays this game were pretty terrible I think. I'm still adjusting to the slower pace of a forum, and I'm seeing that making rash decisions have really bad consequences even in the short term. In my face-to-face game, people are generally too scared to vote to lynch, so I have to really push the town in a direction to generate discussion. In my chatroom games, RVS is also non-existent, and five-minute deadlines and a general hatred of extensions mean that you have to make quick decisions.

I

like

this better, but I'm just making myself look a lot stupider because I'm not a hotheaded person by nature, but I'm trying to force myself to be from past experience.

---

I think I still townread House but there's a lot more doubt in there. I need a moment to decide whether or not I should validate that doubt or not.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

also house i still want to know what you would do if DP flipped town

[Harlii]

Honestly I'll apologize for my play this game - it's bad, and I recognize it's bad, but I don't think that should really be a surprise to anyone. I'm not particularily experienced, especially in forum games. Most of my experience comes from faster-paced face-to-face variants, so I've mostly been trying to figure out how this works. The wishy-washyness comes from this lack of experience - Especially when an IC (especially specifically an IC who I had read as town, along with many other people) tells me something I should do, my instict is that they probably know better than me, especially when that action is against someone who I've consistently read as scum, and when the result of that action is something that I believed I would be okay with. I reconsidered because someone had new information, except that that person wouldn't be able to share said new information, at which point I decided my initial choice was the correct one. Am I sure now it's the correct one? No, but at least it's allowed me to try to analyze what happened and what I should actually have done in that situation.

In terms of new analysis that I could provide, I'm not convinced that I have any insight right now that nobody else has. I don't think there's anything that I could reasonably say here that would differentiate me from the "same as the other popular reads" which is pretty much what's been happening for me the whole game. I still dislike the interactions between foe and DP, am not a huge fan of makesnosense (but that's honestly because of the fact that they're v/la and come up to say one thing without analysis, and then go off again leaving me to wonder what their analysis is). I'm re-evaluating how I feel about house at this point, and on that note - when someone dies/is lynched, is their role revealed?

The replacement for smurph's play seems weird to me (shows up, ignores current events and accuses House, switches quickly to foe by agreeing with DP during the wagon against DP). This kind of throws me off a lot, because if DP/Key (? is this a reasonable shortening) were a scumteam that would be way too obvious, I'd think. It also would imply that the other defence of DP (way earlier, in Racers reads) wasn't a scumteam of racer/DP. All in all, I find myself somewhat agreeing with the foe side of the foe vs DP, which makes both of their claims seem off to me.

As an end to this dragging on post, in retrospect I probably should have realized that forcing a roleclaim was stupid. Considering all the possiblities - scum = claim vanilla town probably, vanilla town = claim vanilla town, non-vanilla town = claim vanilla town and be screwed later or get outed really early which seems bad - I don't see any of these as good results. Unless someone knows some reason why such a claim would be useful for the rest of the town, I'll add that to my list of 'things that I should actually think about before doing things'.

[Harlii]

also house i still want to know what you would do if DP flipped town

What do you mean when you say 'flipped town'? Do you mean lynched and turned out to be a townie? The only other option I can think of is claimed town at L-1, and as I said in my previous post, that claim means very little IMO.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

see that's what i townread harlii ^

Also yes, Harlii, when someone dies, their role is revealed. I don't care what DP says he is, I care about what InnocentVillager reveals him as if he gets lynched or NK'd.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

*that's why, and i was referring to 155

[Harlii]

I feel like the answer to 'what happens if DP was lynched and town' doesn't legitimately change if House is scum or not. In either case, does he not say something along the lines of "I was wrong, so I should re-evaluate reads of the people DP was against" leading to targetting probably Foe (given the history between foe and DP) or really anyone else he hasn't read as hard town? As town, he obviously wants to move on to finding the next scummy person, and as scum, he wants to move on to the next non-scum who gives off a scummy vibe while distancing himself from the town lynch. What changes isn't really his reaction, but how people would read his reaction. In every case of retrospect, it makes sense for him to not hammer DP, because he'd be super suspicious if DP was town and he was scum, and as a town, it seems like it's not worth the risk to hammer someone potentially scummy this early.

I realize that things like this are what I should think about /before/ I do things, but I tend to be the advocate for gambit-type plays. I'm feeling like gambits aren't nearly as good in longer games like this, so I'll try not to do them.

(The gambit in this case would be trading the potential loss of two town (DP + the night killed) for the potential scum-lynch on DP, if it wasn't clear. It results in 5 town 2 mafia on the bad end, which is winnable IMO with the reasonable information gain from the mis-lynch but difficult, vs 6 town 1 mafia on the good end which would have been very winnable. For future reference, how difficult do people think the hypothetical 5v2 is?)

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I feel like the answer to 'what happens if DP was lynched and town' doesn't legitimately change if House is scum or not. In either case, does he not say something along the lines of "I was wrong, so I should re-evaluate reads of the people DP was against" leading to targetting probably Foe (given the history between foe and DP) or really anyone else he hasn't read as hard town? As town, he obviously wants to move on to finding the next scummy person, and as scum, he wants to move on to the next non-scum who gives off a scummy vibe while distancing himself from the town lynch. What changes isn't really his reaction, but how people would read his reaction. In every case of retrospect, it makes sense for him to not hammer DP, because he'd be super suspicious if DP was town and he was scum, and as a town, it seems like it's not worth the risk to hammer someone potentially scummy this early.

I'm pretty much asking him who the next scummy person is or who the next "non-scum who gives off a scummy vibe" is though, not looking for a reaction. I want to know so that before DP's hammered, the person hammering at least has a backup plan for the 5-2 scenario. I'm pretty sure House would want to lynch Racer64 if DP flips scum, but I honestly would not know where to go with a town!DP.

It generally

is

worth the risk of mislynching D1, because the information you can get from a townflip and nightkill can be very informative. If you look at the lynch accuracy stats of Matrix6, our chance of mislynching goes down no matter what. 6-1 is probably the most desirable outcome that we can at least rely on, and the chance of mislynching is still around 50%. 5-2 is not as good, but we have a 1 in 3 chance of correctly lynching. It's a big difference, but we're not completely screwed if we mislynch.

If we do end up with a mislynch, I'd at least want it to be a very informative mislynch.

Also I should have predicted that House wasn't going to hammer, especially considering I kept pointing out that I don't want to be on a lynchwagon yet... Really sorry for ruining your reaction test :/

[DoctorPepper]

Im just gonna weigh in and say how worried I am over the fact that its only 5 RL days and we have a bunch of other players who have not given significant contribution to the game and somehow everyone assumes I'm still gonna be the lynch target for today

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Im just gonna weigh in and say how worried I am over the fact that its only 5 RL days and we have a bunch of other players who have not given significant contribution to the game and somehow everyone assumes I'm still gonna be the lynch target for today

This is why I'm not too upset about unvoting (if I were I would have revoted).

Only thing is atm I can't see another viable person of interest. Foe is pretty much townread by everyone and is my new "safe townread," so I'm not sure your wagon is going to catch on. RC is a pretty popular townread too.

That leaves KNDP, House, me, MNS, Harlii, and Racer64. While atm they're ordered in how happy I'd be with their wagons (least happy to happiest), a Racer64 wagon would kinda suck since he's on V/LA. After looking at the voting patterns, Harlii's a lot more of a null read to me but I don't feel ready to call a wagon onto anyone.

Mind you, that's not a readslist. KNDP is definitely not a townread to me. Not to suggest Town!KNDP is impossible, but I disliked his entrance.

Also since I've looked at the voting patterns, it's my votes that get wagons rolling this game it seems . Don't know if that's good or bad though.

[House]

Im just gonna weigh in and say how worried I am over the fact that its only 5 RL days and we have a bunch of other players who have not given significant contribution to the game and somehow everyone assumes I'm still gonna be the lynch target for today

Considering you've done exactly zero scum hunting and spent these five days merely concentrating and throwing around accusations based on assumptions worth no interest in the motives behind the actions you're criticizing, I can't imagine why you'd be surprised.

[House]

Im just gonna weigh in and say how worried I am over the fact that its only 5 RL days and we have a bunch of other players who have not given significant contribution to the game and somehow everyone assumes I'm still gonna be the lynch target for today

Considering you've done exactly zero scum hunting and spent these five days merely

concentrating

commentating and throwing around accusations based on assumptions worth no interest in the motives behind the actions you're criticizing, I can't imagine why you'd be surprised.

EBWOP

[gigabyteTroubadour]

house i'm sorry for badgering you about this, but what would you do if DP turned out to be town? How would it affect your reads, to phrase that better?

[House]

I feel like the answer to 'what happens if DP was lynched and town' doesn't legitimately change if House is scum or not. In either case, does he not say something along the lines of "I was wrong, so I should re-evaluate reads of the people DP was against" leading to targetting probably Foe (given the history between foe and DP) or really anyone else he hasn't read as hard town? As town, he obviously wants to move on to finding the next scummy person, and as scum, he wants to move on to the next non-scum who gives off a scummy vibe while distancing himself from the town lynch. What changes isn't really his reaction, but how people would read his reaction. In every case of retrospect, it makes sense for him to not hammer DP, because he'd be super suspicious if DP was town and he was scum, and as a town, it seems like it's not worth the risk to hammer someone potentially scummy this early.

I'm pretty much asking him who the next scummy person is or who the next "non-scum who gives off a scummy vibe" is though, not looking for a reaction.

My reads, especially on d1, are based on a player's own actions.

Racer and mns are still pretty scummy to me, and key's entrance was just all kinds of ick.

I was really liking Harlii's posting until the self-proclaimed major townread and nk paranoia. That was bad play if town, and manipulative if scum. Still mulling that one over.

[House]

house i'm sorry for badgering you about this, but what would you do if DP turned out to be town? How would it affect your reads, to phrase that better?

Give me a hot minute to catch up once I begin posting, please.

I don't do single post drive-bys.

[House]

I feel like the answer to 'what happens if DP was lynched and town' doesn't legitimately change if House is scum or not. In either case, does he not say something along the lines of "I was wrong, so I should re-evaluate reads of the people DP was against" leading to targetting probably Foe (given the history between foe and DP) or really anyone else he hasn't read as hard town? As town, he obviously wants to move on to finding the next scummy person, and as scum, he wants to move on to the next non-scum who gives off a scummy vibe while distancing himself from the town lynch. What changes isn't really his reaction, but how people would read his reaction. In every case of retrospect, it makes sense for him to not hammer DP, because he'd be super suspicious if DP was town and he was scum, and as a town, it seems like it's not worth the risk to hammer someone potentially scummy this early.

Try not to do this.

By responding to a question directed to someone else, it offers the person being addressed alternatives to their natural response which can inhibit scum hunting.

[DoctorPepper]

I am not understanding this
"I've done no scumhunting" is your response while the biggest reason to scum read me is having "shaky" reasons to call someone scum and use the word wagon when it apparently wasn't
Second, the part that worries me is the fact that its been 5 days, we have no info, and half the player base isnt exactly active
Third, the not scumhunting part can be said about literally half the playerbase, as they are either inactive or just provide commentary like you say I do.

[House]

I am not understanding this
"I've done no scumhunting" is your response while the biggest reason to scum read me is having "shaky" reasons to call someone scum and use the word wagon when it apparently wasn't

Falls under

commentating and throwing around accusations based on assumptions with no interest in the motives behind the actions you're criticizing

[Harlii]

I was really liking Harlii's posting until the self-proclaimed major townread and nk paranoia. That was bad play if town, and manipulative if scum. Still mulling that one over.

I meant that as a one-off direct reference to giga's claim of that (so not really self-proclaimed), unless I misread their post a while back. I can see where you're coming from though, and do regret saying it now. Why would it be bad as town? Is it because it reads as manipulative from scum, and therefore makes me look scummier? I'll know that for the future again, I guess.

Try not to do this.
By responding to a question directed to someone else, it offers the person being addressed alternatives to their natural response which can inhibit scum hunting.

I see what you mean, would it have been better if I waited until after your answer and then analysed it based on my expectations?

In other news, while I'm still unconvinced of DoctorPepper's town-ness, I kind of do want to step back and re-evaluate various things (particularily the interactions between House and DoctorPepper, among other things), so before I forget:
UNVOTE: DoctorPepper

L-2 seems like a dangerous place to put someone I'm not sure about in, and is actually really bad for town IMO in the scenario where the scumteam is giga/House (not an accusation, but one of the scenarios I've been thinking of the implications of).

To add additional questions:
1. What happens when someone gets all 5 votes on them? I assume the mod shows up at some point, but what happens in the time between the vote and the mod showing up?
2. 'Scumhunting" I assume means actively trying to get people to react in scummy ways, i.e. through reaction tests, y/n?

[House]

Why would it be bad as town? Is it because it reads as manipulative from scum, and therefore makes me look scummier?

That, and it brings attention to you from scum if they were looking elsewhere.

[House]

Bbl

[DoctorPepper]

Oh I have scumhunting motives, shame you cant see them but thats not my job.