Newbie 1715 (Game Over)

[Creature]

idk

I am not the one PR hunting.

[Dwlee99]

Hey I was just about to post about that. So I think scum thought that sircakez was low activity (he is actually normally active) because he was trying to lay low as a power role.

[Creature]

but I think the ideal play for scum is to PR hunt so they don't kill someone based on their reads and give town info.

[Creature]

SirCakez was also a low-info target, so I don't think scum killed based on reads.

[Dwlee99]

The question it makes me wonder is if that means that anyone could have commited the kill or if it means that people who know sircakez and have played with him are more likely to kill.him.

[Creature]

I don't think we're getting info on who would've killed SirCakez, I am imagining a lot of reasons SirCakez would be the kill.

[eagerSnake]

Right. Which would lead me to believe at least 1 of the scum is a vet.

[Creature]

Why? Some newbscum actually go after ICs/SEs because of their experience.

[Dwlee99]

So since it is kind of leading towards this, I laid out a blanket no NKA mostly because in most cases it is difficult to determine why someone was killed. If, however, you can pinpoint a specific reason that has a very likely chance of being the case you can analyze that. Saying "He was scum read by who the night kill was" doesnt meet that criteria.

[Creature]

We don't need to NKA anyway, we have a bunch of posts to make a solid read.

[Dwlee99]

With this case I dont think we can determine who is more likely to kill sircakez unless I was somehow able to see everyone who has played with sircakez when he was town and active.
pedit yea true

[eagerSnake]

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?tit ... h_analysis.

[Creature]

I am currently going to stick my vote on atm487 because I feel DotW and LQ aren't scum together, most likely because:
1. They would try to have different opinions rather than attacking me and my reads.
2. I am getting a slim town feeling on both, but I must be wrong in one of them.

[eagerSnake]

NKA's just as vital as lynch analysis.

Yes, tread carefully; nightkill analysis is a wifom minefield. It's easy to get lost, since usually, there's no single reason a player dies; generally, it's multiple factors combined. So it's impossible to be certain.


...But it's not something to be flat-out ignored. If you can figure out the reasons why that player died (common ones being: obvtown, reads dangerously close, is a rational player capable of changing their reads, and might be a PR), then you can better figure out who killed them. Who had the most to gain from their death, and why? Who is more likely to kill them? What does the kill accomplish? Was it random or planned? Things like that.

Again,

Don't put too much stock in it.

You don't want to ignore NKA, but you don't want to put much faith in it. Let it contribute to a read, not be the entire basis of a read.

[Creature]

I wouldn't use NKA to see who would kill X, but I would analyse X's interactions with others as I know they're town.

[Dwlee99]

NKA's just as vital as lynch analysis

Yes,

tread carefully; nightkill analysis is a wifom minefield. I

t's easy to get lost, since usually,

there's no single reason a player dies

; generally, it's multiple factors combined. So it's

impossible to be certain.

...But it's not something to be flat-out ignored.

If you can figure out the reasons why that player died

(common ones being: obvtown, reads dangerously close, is a rational player capable of changing their reads, and might be a PR), then you can better figure out who killed them. Who had the most to gain from their death, and why? Who is more likely to kill them? What does the kill accomplish? Was it random or planned? Things like that.
Again,

Don't put too much stock in it

You don't want to ignore NKA, but

you don't want to put much faith in it.

Let it contribute to a read, not be the entire basis of a read.

Btw do not blindly follow the wiki. They can be wrong. In my most recently (or second most recently?) completed game I used the wiki to believe that 2 - 1 - 1 prisoner dilemma was an automatic town win but then afterwords had someone come in and say "Hey that wiki article is wrong I juat fixed it."

[Dwlee99]

(That is to say, sorry for anyone who was relying on the Dilemma page for strategy advice; I see that it got linked at one point. Luckily in the end, I don't think it mattered.)

One thing I noticed when reviewing this setup is that 2:1:1 is actually a three-faction draw, rather than the typically acknowledged town win. I had to wait for the game to be over to update the page, but it's been done now.

[Dwlee99]

oops wrong order for the quotes, oh well you can figure it out.

[eagerSnake]

True. Let's not make the NK our sole, or main, reason for a lynch. But we shouldn't ignore it or dismiss it, either. It is difficult, or even impossible at this point to determine the exact reason for this kill, but as town we should still look into

all

of the evidence.

[Creature]

Look at who was whiteknighting/townreading SirCakez and look for fights that look TvS (or TvT) where SirCakez is involved.

[Dwlee99]

True. Let's not make the NK our sole, or main, reason for a lynch. But we shouldn't ignore it or dismiss it, either. It is difficult, or even impossible at this point to determine the exact reason for this kill, but as town we should still look into

all

of the evidence.

If it is impossible to get anything from the kill we shouldnt use it as evidence..

[eagerSnake]

I didn't say impossible to get anything and you already know that.

I said

difficult or impossible

to determine the

exact reason.

As Town we usually never know exact anything... so does that mean we should throw everything out that we can't be 100% sure of? In that case we're throwing out

everything.

Again, only scum would want us to think that way.

[Creature]

but we shouldn't focus on it.

[Dwlee99]

I dont think you understand that unless you can determine the exact reason someone was killed nka is almost useless. (╯°□°）╯︵ ┻━┻
I promise you I would not lie to newbies about game theory in order to gain an advantage.

[eagerSnake]

Look at who was whiteknighting/townreading SirCakez and look for fights that look TvS (or TvT) where SirCakez is involved.

How can you tell what is TvT and what is TvS?