Newbie 1718 [Game Over!] Mafia

[innocentvillager]

Looking for a keyenpeydee replacement per his request.

	VOTECOUNT 1.3
Player	Being voted by (in chronological order)	Number of Votes
1. makesnosense	RadiantCowbells	1
2. Harlii
3. gigabyteTroubadour	House	1
4. Racer64	gigabyteTroubadour	1
5. foedufafa	DoctorPepper, keyenpeydee	2
6. keyenpeydee
7. RadiantCowbells
8. DoctorPepper	makesnosense, foedufafa	2
9. House

Not voting: Racer64, Harlii

Deadline to lynch is in (expired on 2016-06-29 14:56:27)

With 9 eligible to vote, it's 5 votes to lynch

RadiantCowbells is V/LA until June 21st.

Please let me know if there are errors in the VC, or have any other questions in general. Don't forget to bold such requests to me.

[innocentvillager]

kraska77 replaces keyenpeydee. Welcome her!

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I'd be less defensive about my lynch if:

Spoiler: Point A (spoilered because it's long)

A: House wasn't so overzealous that he's right. He's tunneling on something that's tainted by confirmation bias off of someone else's reads, and if he doesn't have a backup plan then mafia's going to eat the town alive with a perfect victory. He's the only person who has been doing any serious scumhunting and not only will my townflip ruin his credibility as town leader, I think he's a prime NK target if he's town. I have no idea what Scum!House implies and honestly it baffles me too much that I'm just going with Occam's Razor here.

By "confirmation bias," I mean that House had absolutely no reason to even consider a scumread on me until RC asked them why he townread me and thus had to question himself. Like if you read through the conversation it still doesn't make any sense to me. I honestly feel betrayed, but this

is

a game about betrayal.

In a nutshell:

• 1. House places a vote on Racer, based on a case that he believes is pretty strong. Read post #188 if you don't believe that he had confidence in his vote.
  
  2. I point out that since a wagon on Racer is exactly what I would want too, I'm most likely voting on this wagon. I'm hesitant, however, because some of House's reasons were a bit off and Racer's V/LA ends tomorrow and he might be able to defend himself.
  
  3. House says that the fact that there are some holes in his case shouldn't affect my vote because more pressure on Racer is better.
  
  4. I agree and vote, pointing out that if I don't like this wagon for any reason I can still unvote.
  
  5. House, again, justifies his case...
  
  6. Yet somehow being persuaded by someone is a scumtell? It's almost like I was baited into this so that House can just say "Wow, RC was right after all!"

To me, House

really

wanted to agree with RC and is overthinking a situation I think anyone could have been in in order to justify it. My later "slips" really are dumb slips (My typo in 194 makes 0 grammatical sense, 202 isn't inconsistent at all and House is ignoring the reasons why, what House pointed out in 215 isn't a contradiction) and I think House is grasping for straws here.

B: I had a stronger case against Harlii, who is a hell of a lot more scummy to me after this fight and also the end of DP's wagon. More on this in C.

C: It wasn't Father's Day and people weren't busy. Some town reactions could have at least steered this in the right direction, and the only people who commented on this were Harlii and DP who are the last people I buy as town at this point. The fact that both of them are waiting for other people's reactions too (Harlii has consistently had a neutral tone to his questions, and DP implied that he felt I was scummy but didn't even vote. Both show they're afraid to take a stance) should at least seem a little scummy, even if you don't trust me.

I'm hoping that if House successfully gets a lynchwagon on me, I get a long twilight phase so I can at least try to do a post-mortem scumhunt while I'm conftown. Assuming that's allowed, of course.

And, also pointers on how to talk my way out of situations like this would be nice, because in my chatroom experience, I constantly get mislynched for "slips" like that while being hounded by a significantly more experienced player. You'd think I'd learn from some experience. It's hard to justify weird actions that you do anyway because you think it's the right thing to do, but surely if I'm town there's some way I can persuade the rest of the town that I'm innocent. I'd probably prefer this post-death or post-game though when I'm confirmed innocent.

also kraska77, welcome!

[DoctorPepper]

You're throwing things around here, I implied what you did was scummy, I didn't say I thought you were scum. Consider the fact that I have another scum read who isn't actively posting and I still need to get an answer from that guy.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

You're throwing things around here, I implied what you did was scummy, I didn't say I thought you were scum. Consider the fact that I have another scum read who isn't actively posting and I still need to get an answer from that guy.

OK, who is that scumread? It can't possibly hurt your scumhunting if you state who your target is. After all, you were under suspicion and it wouldn't kill to give some reads.

I'm still surprised that no one who has been on has voted for me though, I thought that if House felt one way the rest of the town would follow. I guess I can believe that you, DP, would be less likely to follow House, but Harlii? Town really needs to be more active.

[Harlii]

I chose neutral-toned questions (well, tried to) for a reason, the reason being that I don't yet have a stance on this push. Your actions wouldn't sit well with me except that they're strikingly similar to what I did before, also pushed by House. In recognising that what I did was bad, it leads me to believe that what you did is also bad. On the other side, there are weird things that House has done in this wagon, specifically bringing the read on me up and then subsequently dodging questions about its relevance.

Are neutral questions a scumtell? I can see an argument being made for that. Would it be stupid for me to jump on anything right now without trying to actually question the things that are off about it, especially given my experience with the DP wagon and watching this situation play out? Clearly. I'm not sure if giga would be happier if I voted for them or not, but I have no particular desire to blindly follow House before I get answers to things I want to know about.

Also, point A3 is incorrect, I think. House responds to you by saying coming back to pressure is good, not that holes in the case shouldn't affect your voting. On one hand, you (or I) could have misunderstood House. On the other, it's a deliberate manipulation to get people on your side.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

House, Racer isn't voting for me, or anyone for that matter.

I still think he's pretty suspicious but I want him to defend himself once more before placing a vote, his V/LA ends tomorrow.

So?

There's nothing wrong with him coming back to some pressure.

He bolded the very thing that tore apart his case on Racer though. That tells me he acknowledged it, and his response tells me to dismiss it. Which I did!

And I interpret your neutrality as stalling to see if any wagon catches on. You've been mid-votes on both of the major wagons (MNS and DP), which also corroborates this suspicion to me.

I also feel as though you've been mimicking my play throughout the game in order to gain House's trust (you've made the same comment about how people are townreading you and thus making you susceptible to a nk, for example. you also criticized your own play right after I did too if memory serves right), but I feel that it's more paranoia than something worth pursuing. I'm probably going to go through our combined ISOs to try to connect the dots on this one, but I don't expect it to go far.

[Harlii]

I misunderstood then, I'm really bad at noticing boldness in quotes. I think that's happened at least once before, but I don't think I made a post about it.

I get the scummyness of neutrality but to be honest, as I said above, it'd be stupid for me to not wait in this situation. There's no good move here that isn't "get more information before making a bad decision".

I (started all these lines with I, and) can also confirm that I haven't been mimicking your play on purpose, if it can even be called that. I made that comment (about the townread) as a direct reference to your comment about it, which I now understand the error of and regret (and have talked about before). I criticised my own play after it was made clear to me that it was bad, regardless of who did it. Similarities show up again later, but that's the opposite direction with you mimicking my (bad) play. I'm not sure what else you'll find, but I would be interested to know.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

i just figured out how to get a combined ISO, so give me a moment

also the mimicking argument even isn't that strong, it'd be a very interesting play were you scum and i'd have to compliment you for it, but it just seems silly. still looking into it though.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Yeah, there's definitely too much of a distance between posts to really justify that argument, but my reads remain the same. I can give an exact list if anyone cares.

[innocentvillager]

Racer64

and makesnosense are being prodded.

Racer64 has been unprodded, due to some V/LA confusion.

[innocentvillager]

Also, Rule 17 has been changed:

17. All players, including the lynched player, are allowed to talk in twilight phase until the thread is locked, at which point Day ends. Dead players (NEW RULE!) are allowed one "bah!" or completely non-game related post, but after that may not post until the game has been officially declared over.

[foedufafa]

You're throwing things around here, I implied what you did was scummy, I didn't say I thought you were scum. Consider the fact that I have another scum read who isn't actively posting and I still need to get an answer from that guy.

Is this in reference to me? I'm not sure what you expect me to answer.

(and again sorry guys for not being active I fell a day behind and then there was a lot to sort through. I'm taking the time to look through it all right now)

[foedufafa]

I'm getting a stronger scum read off of Harlii then I think most people are giving him credit for. post 155 seems to indicate that their outward appearance to others is more of a priority to them than their utility in catching scum. This also goes back to "In other news, I'm slightly sad that I'm apparently the safest townread because I feel like that makes me a good target to be nightkilled, which I would prefer not to happen." They jump on the DP bandwagon at one point, then jump off at the urging of someone else, then jump back on at the urging of House who they admit to trusting as knowing better than they do. They had better have an extremely strong townread on House if he has the power to influence their voting.
I'm just generally not pleased with their focus on how others perceive them. It's either misdirected energy or scum being motivated by their own need to survive.

How can you say I've been sheeping you? I was the first to push for both of this game's major wagons (MNS and DP), and you weren't even a part of MNS at its end. Also, me unvoting DP because I didn't want you to have the power to hammer implies that I have

some

distrust of you.

This is just factually inaccurate. You have another post as well where you cite your votes as getting major pushes going throughout this day. However, MNS was actually the first person to vote for DoctorPepper before you chose to. And with the MNS wagon you had him as your RVS vote which you never changed, but never made any indication that you were with Harlii and I in pressuring them for more activity. The first thing you say about it is "makesnosense is at L-2 no more voting for him." Unless you can direct me to a post where I'm mistaken about your involvement in that(I don't think I am but you have a lot of posts to sift through) it seems that you're misrepresenting your influence on this game.

I'm bothered by how much sway House seems to have over some of the other newbies in this game. Giga and Harlii have both admitted to having their votes swayed by him "without much thought," to use gigas words. I still see House as being more towny than not, but if he did turn out to be scum and either or both of them are town then his ability to sway others is dangerous. Let's have a bit of a healthier sense of skepticism, please.

In other news, welcome kraska! I'm very excited to hear your thoughts once you are caught up. It's problematic how little information we have from one of our nine players.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

This is just factually inaccurate. You have another post as well where you cite your votes as getting major pushes going throughout this day. However, MNS was actually the first person to vote for DoctorPepper before you chose to. And with the MNS wagon you had him as your RVS vote which you never changed, but never made any indication that you were with Harlii and I in pressuring them for more activity. The first thing you say about it is "makesnosense is at L-2 no more voting for him." Unless you can direct me to a post where I'm mistaken about your involvement in that(I don't think I am but you have a lot of posts to sift through) it seems that you're misrepresenting your influence on this game.

I

really

disagree. My vote on MNS became non-rvs as soon as MNS voted, although I couldn't indicate such until way after that. Yes, I was the second vote on DP, but that's still early enough in the wagon. Plus, I don't think MNS has much influence in the game, so I'm not sure if the DP wagon would have caught on had I not voted for it. Maybe I'm overestimating my own influence, but that's legitimately how I saw this.

I got off of MNS because I got the post I wanted (post #97). In retrospect I regret this because MNS's activity has been dead after that post, but I'm more convinced of a DP/Racer or Harlii team and I want to focus on them more. RC did vote for MNS so I think we'll see more of that wagon.

The point is though, I think it's better to be early in the wagon than it is late in the wagon.

[kraska77]

hello
it seems my predecessor made quite a remarkable entrance. tbh im not following the logic behind either of their votes. seems like they either genuinely did not read the thread properly, or we're just not on the same page when it comes to how we read people and their motives in general??
VOTE: UNVOTE

anyway...back to scum hunting
i think we should lynch makesnosense today. i know this has been mostly covered by others already, but the case seems to have lost momentum for some reason so i want to bring it back into picture. im confident about this one. there is just no town motivation or reasoning behind any of the moves/explanations they made. says their house vote was made with the intention of collecting more information, but house was already talking. no matter how i look at it, it just doesnt add up. then says it was RVS, but even then, considering that the mood of the game had clearly picked up from just "random voting" at the point when that vote would cast, it still makes no sense to choose to pressure a person who is already very actively engaged in the game. seems to me like mafia trying and failing to anticipate a potential wagon.

[kraska77]

VOTE: makesnosense

[gigabyteTroubadour]

solid entrance from kraska, this slot's in good hands

I'd be happy with a MNS lynch too but I'm still hesitant because I still think DP and {Harlii/Racer64} is a possible team. I want MNS to be at least more active before making a solid read on it, especially because Town has been very inactive in general.

Also, while you're here, do you think you could provide a list of reads?

[kraska77]

and i fully agree with what foe said about sheeping. makes it very difficult for me to discern whether this is just a hesitating newbie reluctant to trust their own judgement, or mafia latching on to a figure of authority and using their newbie card to justify this. so guys if youre town then please stop this, it makes reading you as green very difficult.
as for giga's case it is weird that she was very inquisitive and showed more reluctance when pressed by house to vote for DP, but then votes for racer without much question...it does not make her look good at all

[kraska77]

The point is though, I think it's better to be early in the wagon than it is late in the wagon.

not necessarily the case...like i said it would also make sense for mafia to try to anticipate wagons whenever possible as this gives them more town credit. but anyway i think the point about RVS vote brought up against you is weak, it's your racer vote that i found questionable

[gigabyteTroubadour]

House didn't press me to vote for DP, I was the second person on that wagon. I unvoted because while I don't trust DP, I felt House was ready to hammer before I was, and I at the very least want to weigh all of the possible outcomes before anyone's lynch or mislynch.

I voted for Racer without really taking House's case into consideration because Racer was my next vote regardless. House just persuaded me to join the wagon earlier than I would have. I'm not denying my Racer vote was bad though, but I'm standing by it.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

and yes you're right, scum can be early on a wagon. Me being on wagons early though shows that I have opinions of my own and my own motivations, which isn't sheeping.

[Harlii]

Town

{Harlii} – Pretty much the safest townread out of the 9 of us.

The quote that people keep calling me out on is a direct reference to the post above. I'm slightly tired of repeating it, so this time I actually quoted it, and I will now leave it alone.

I'm getting a stronger scum read off of Harlii then I think most people are giving him credit for. post 155 seems to indicate that their outward appearance to others is more of a priority to them than their utility in catching scum. This also goes back to "In other news, I'm slightly sad that I'm apparently the safest townread because I feel like that makes me a good target to be nightkilled, which I would prefer not to happen." They jump on the DP bandwagon at one point, then jump off at the urging of someone else, then jump back on at the urging of House who they admit to trusting as knowing better than they do. They had better have an extremely strong townread on House if he has the power to influence their voting.
I'm just generally not pleased with their focus on how others perceive them. It's either misdirected energy or scum being motivated by their own need to survive.

I'm bothered by how much sway House seems to have over some of the other newbies in this game. Giga and Harlii have both admitted to having their votes swayed by him "without much thought," to use gigas words. I still see House as being more towny than not, but if he did turn out to be scum and either or both of them are town then his ability to sway others is dangerous. Let's have a bit of a healthier sense of skepticism, please.

I've also already talked about my actions in the DP bandwagon (in post 155, as you linked I think). It's my first game, so I made mistakes, and I am trying to not make them again. You're free to interpret that as a handy cover for scumminess if you want, but you'd be incorrect if you did. You're especially correct about the stuff with House's sway, hence why I'm waiting for my question to him a while back to be answered before doing anything.

In terms of going for mns, I kind of agree with Giga here - MNS has done really very little. I agree that their initial actions are scummy, but what else is there to base it on? It's ridiculously hard to judge a lot of the playerbase right now because they've been v/la or busy. I'd want to add something more aggressive here about challenging someone else but I'm not sure who I'd want to go for yet, there's a frustrating lack of information on people I'd like more information on.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I've been mulling about my read list, and I have more scumreads (including myself, because I always try to guess where most of the town reads me) than townreads. There's 9 players in every game, and only 2 of them can be scum. How can I have 5 possible scumreads?

If you're wondering what it is at this point...

Town

House
Foe
Raska/RC

Mafia

Racer64
gigabyteTroubadour
MNS/Harlii
DoctorPepper

I hate paranoia in Mafia because this is a cooperative game for even town players, and paranoia simply makes it difficult to come to a consensus and work together. V/LAs are ending soon and I hope that's the impetus we need to actually start moving on this game.

Emotionally I feel conflicted about my Harlii read, mostly because Harlii was at first my top townread. There's a lot of room for scum motivation in his posts, just as there is for newb!Town.

I'm also voting for my least scummy scum because the only thing I have against him is that I read his read on DP as a distancing attempt, and that wouldn't look good if DP flips scum. I want to pressure him, see how he reacts, and see how other players react too. I'm probably going to move onto a more realistic lynch vote (MNS or DP) unless Racer64 slips.

[DoctorPepper]

You're throwing things around here, I implied what you did was scummy, I didn't say I thought you were scum. Consider the fact that I have another scum read who isn't actively posting and I still need to get an answer from that guy.

OK, who is that scumread? It can't possibly hurt your scumhunting if you state who your target is. After all, you were under suspicion and it wouldn't kill to give some reads.

I'm still surprised that no one who has been on has voted for me though, I thought that if House felt one way the rest of the town would follow. I guess I can believe that you, DP, would be less likely to follow House, but Harlii? Town really needs to be more active.

If you were actually reading the game you'd know I'm still on foe