Mini 1800 - Game Over

[Titus]

Thank you karnos for reinforcing my read on you.

I don't like your vote. They'll either turn up or get replaced. Voting someone before they've turned up always just feels like a safe play for scum. Also you say kappy and sickofit are acting a little silly and

scummy

. Why vote for someone who hasn't turned up (which is pressure doing nothing, cos they haven't turned up) over someone you think has done scummy stuff?

I don't know, is not having an avatar a scumtell? More importantly, why do you ask? Cos it sounds like you want to call it a scum tell but want to know someone else will follow you first.

What was controversial about your post? You were voting on a viable wagon early game. To me that just sounds like playing the game. I don't get your reasoning. You seem really oversensitive to the fact that it might implicate you. You were voting it to what, L-3? If a quicklynch happened in that time why would your vote be the one that looked really bad? Mislynches happen, mislynches day 1 especially. It's not nice, but it's true. You have to accept that and take the plunge anyway. I don't get why not being implicated in a potential but very unlikely mislynch (unlikely cos of the quicklynch required) is playing to a town win con over putting pressure on someone you think is scummy.

Guys, you are accusing of Kappy of trying to look town in RVS, why aren't we on this too?

Also town.

[Titus]

Why did I say that

one

of them has an excellent chance to be scum and didn't mention a chance of town in my post?

Because you're intentionally being ambiguous in order to appear to be scum hunting without actually doing so.

Come on. Don't act like you've never seen scum in x y z kinda posts

[Titus]

post 150 actually kind of supports my non belief actually. The fact that you say his posts up until post 125 match his scum meta means that up until that post you were honestly scum reading him.

still not changing my vote off kappy but I fully support a persivul lynch atm

*squint*

[Titus]

War of walls on page 11 is where I am out.

[Firebringer]

Its the moon sisters!! (new nickname I thought up for both of you).
This is going to be fun.

*grabs the popcorn*

[Masquerade]

Noticed something in my re-read, something that stood out and is a bit more interesting to me than the constant noise from Mathblade.

Masquerade has been someone I have avoided looking at too closely. Admittedly, I thought he might be scum in the same way I thought Wingback might be scum, but I'd just be reiterating the same argument, scum trying to buddy up to town pre-flip to build cred. At the time when I was at L-2 to L-1, I felt my situation was pretty delicate, and I didn't want to kick the hornets nest so to speak, and cause him to turn on me and hammer me before I could claim and have some discussion. (I came out against Wingback as potential scum, but I almost immediately regret that decision because I realized if he was indeed scum he could quickly counter my argument by simply lynching me. ) This was compounded with the fact that it was just a thought of a possibility, not a serious feeling that he was scum, and I wanted to remain focused on what I thought was the most obvious scum in the game at the time, Mathblade.

The recent trend of multiple huge wall posts every day by Mathblade distracted me for a time, and didn't even think about bringing Masquerades buddying as a scum tell, but upon my last re-read I noticed something odd about this post:

Only experience I have with him is a multiball where we were on opposing scumteams. My buddy was lynched D1, I killed Karnos' buddy N1, town lynched me D2, and then I think they lynched Karnos D4. So I wouldn't call him a bad player, but I don't think he'll be making very complex plans.

The game in question:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... &start=975

I wasn't lynched D4. Certainly not trying to brag, really it came down to a coin-flip decision, but I went to endgame and won as scum. Why is Masquerade downplaying my scum game? I just can't fathom a reason. Yet he was there, posting in the game thread after it was all over, I just don't see how him being unaware that the game ended with a scum win.

Masquerade, whats your deal?

VOTE: Masquerade

Oh really? Then I remembered it wrong that's so stupid lol.
But do you really think that's alignment indicative?

[Masquerade]

Still rereading

it is a bit of a slog with all the walls

to get through. Going to respond to recent posts and then get back to that tomorrow after work.

Ya think?

[Persivul]

I am totally willing to vote magna for just voting one of my strongest town reads (math)

There are three of us on math. Are we all scum?

[Persivul]

I actually read that as he was ok with a wagon happening.

What, are you saying that he didn't really think a wagon was happening, but just had the thought that,

hey, if a wagon

were

happening, I'd be OK with that...

?

If this semantics are the level of discourse, I see why mass sub out

Come in, look down your nose, and blame me for the replacements. Got it. If the Great and Powerful Titus thinks I'm a problem, I must be.

mod, please replace me.

[karnos]

Oh really? Then I remembered it wrong that's so stupid lol.
But do you really think that's alignment indicative?

I am not sure. But if it was important enough to bring it up in a post, my thinking is it would be important enough to click the "view your posts" link and take 10 seconds to read the game ending. You also posted something about being lazy. Is the error due to laziness, or is the error intentional and the lazy comment was to allow for plausible deniability if your error was realized.

I just don't know, I want to get some other opinions on the situation.

[MechaGoomba]

You were townreading Masq for quite a while. In 809 you said you were convinced Math and Masq couldn't be coaligned (which I disagree with, but that's for later). You've said you still think Math is scum. You only noticed this during a reread, and the primary thing you pointed out was not the buddying but the misstatement of what happened in your game, making it seem like the misstatement made you go back and look at Masq, and it was then that you saw the buddying.

In summary, it looks like you jumped to conclusions by assuming that the error must have been intentional, and ended up confbiasing off of it.

[karnos]

You were townreading Masq for quite a while. In 809 you said you were convinced Math and Masq couldn't be coaligned (which I disagree with, but that's for later). You've said you still think Math is scum. You only noticed this during a reread, and the primary thing you pointed out was not the buddying but the misstatement of what happened in your game, making it seem like the misstatement made you go back and look at Masq, and it was then that you saw the buddying.

In summary, it looks like you jumped to conclusions by assuming that the error must have been intentional, and ended up confbiasing off of it.

You aren't wrong about one thing, I did think Masq was likely town based on Mathblade being scum, and I do still think MathBlade is scum. But I try to be realistic, my scum reads aren't actually going to flip scum 100% of the time, and my scum reads aren't going anywhere without support from other town. I'm trying to avoid tunneling, and this particular comment from Masq really stuck out to me.

I disagree on your summary, this is about the opposite of confirmation bias. Confirmation bias would be ignoring anything that doesn't support my preexisting "MathBlade is scum" argument.

[GreyICE]

Persivul is being replaced.

[Titus]

Really, highlight a semantic argument and you run for the exit Persy?

[Firebringer]

Titus ignore him.

Also you didn't say hi and I am insulted.
Just so you know I am going to buddy you and your sister all game.

[Titus]

Interesting...

I think Percy is scum though based on far too early wagon skimming. I am going to hate reading the walls.

[Firebringer]

You still haven't said hi to me.
Very rude Titus, I thought we was amigos.

[Titus]

Fire, hi.

I thought me asking you your thoughts in that adorns brain counted. Guess not.

[Masquerade]

Oh really? Then I remembered it wrong that's so stupid lol.
But do you really think that's alignment indicative?

I am not sure. But if it was important enough to bring it up in a post, my thinking is it would be important enough to click the "view your posts" link and take 10 seconds to read the game ending. You also posted something about being lazy. Is the error due to laziness, or is the error intentional and the lazy comment was to allow for plausible deniability if your error was realized.

I just don't know, I want to get some other opinions on the situation.

Well, if you must know, I'm depressed so that makes me sometimes not want to think too much. Ok? Thank you.
I was inaccurate, yes, I remembered that game having a townwin, I'm sorry I messed up. I didn't think it was important enough to actually check.

Mod, replace me out. I cannot deal with this without at some point crossing some line and scaring people.

[Masquerade]

Never mind, mod. I will give myself another 24 hours to cool down. I came home from an appointment that has me in shambles.

I'll be back later.

[Titus]

Pers slot, mecha, math?

Any objections to that scumteam?

[MechaGoomba]

This is sort of odd to say, but ... with me and Math as scum together, I see where you get that idea from, what posts you're going off of, even though I know it's wrong.
Pers slot, on the other hand? I mean, independent of other reads, I do totally see scumreading him, and there aren't exactly any associatives that would say him and me/Math are definitely not scum together, but there are a couple of people I'd be focusing on a lot more carefully if Pers flipped scum.

[MechaGoomba]

I don't find scum by looking for players that aren't helping town. I find scum by looking for players that aren't trying to help town.
If a player is confbiasing, that's a giant sign that they're town, because confbias is something that appears when you're invested in your theories. Scum don't often do that.
I see pushing someone as a tool, to reveal more information so that you can then look at that player in order to discern their motivation. The direct reaction doesn't matter that much.

There's been a cycle where I push someone or argue with them, then I back off, look at their ISO, and see town motivations behind it. It's happened so often that I either have to ignore my reads of their motivations, or push someone for things that don't deserve being pushed. At this point, I don't know if my method doesn't work or if I'm looking in the wrong places, but something's going horribly wrong.

UNVOTE:
Regardless of Magna's alignment, we'd both be able to poke holes in each other's arguments forever. Outside of gut, I can't read him, and I don't trust my gut.
Expect me to push someone else at some point. I need to do a lot of rethinking first.

[Masquerade]

@Karnos, and everyone else, I'm sorry for lashing out earlier. I shouldn't have come in feeling the way I did, I'm going to make sure this won't happen again.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I am totally willing to vote magna for just voting one of my strongest town reads (math)

If Mathblade is scum as I am reading her then Firebringer is most likely Town. He has a history of buddying up to scum as Town and voting Town when they are pushing his friends (who happen to be scum).

Pers slot, mecha, math?

Any objections to that scumteam?

I like two of those three (Math and Mecha). Pers would require him to decide to bus Math when other wagons (like mine) were around and viable. I'm not so sure on that one. You know Math better than me …

Town reads are {Mecha, Saru, Persivul}

Would she put both her partners in her Town reads like that?

Math tunnels karnos = Math focuses on karnos over other players = Math does not focus on non-karnos players = Math does not focus on qubixes = Math doesn't devote a lot of time to pushing qubixes
You scumread Math for not pushing qubixes enough = You scumread Math for tunneling karnos = You scumread Math for something you admit is NAI

Explain, please.

Explain what? Whatever it is you posted above isn’t a reflection on the actual motivations for my scum-read on Math. You seem pretty dead set on defending Math.

Apart from everything else wrong with a me-Math scumteam, if I was scum with Math, there would have been endless scum-PT arguments about karnos, eventually leading to either one of us replacing out, one of us bussing the other, or karnos being NKed. None of those things have happened.

What else is there about you and Math that rules out partners again? I read through your ISO. Early on you were happy to buddy up to Math when you were both scum reading karnos. You vote Math at 716 apparently because Math was continuing to push on karnos. Ostensiblly this means you are scum-reading them, even if only to a small degree. This is the second vote on Math.

You ask Math some questions that look very softball at 725 and 736 with no sign of significant followup. As of 752 Mathblade and Johnny are ties with 3 votes apiece. You hop to Johnny at 769 with not a mention of your read of Math. After this you have some interactions with Math that mostly surround theory on how to handle karnos.

Then we get 816 –

[screams silently]
If Johnny is scum, you just gave scum the perfect signal to start subtly piling onto Math in hopes of flipping the votes of people like you.
If Math is scum, you gave scum the perfect signal that they need to end the day before the leading wagon switches.

After the fact we know that Johnny was Town. Johnny gets hammered less than 100 posts later yet you haven’t even considered those implications in context of your own post. You still have Math as a strong Town read and seem more focused on defending her..

And look again – you stand strongly on the most viable counter-wagon to Mathblade up until the recent hop-off.