Newbie 1718 [Game Over!] Mafia

[DoctorPepper]

Im just saying there is a legit reason why you die early game as town

[RadiantCowbells]

Yes, there's a legit reason. It's in like 90% of situations the correct decision. Look at Postie Titus + the newb who got perfect win destroyed by 3 straight deathtunnels from me in Vengeful Nightless.

It doesn't make me feel any better about it.

[DoctorPepper]

This feels off, but Im willing to give it the 3 days.

[RadiantCowbells]

Seriously stop making those kinds of comments. I did this because it's a newbie game and I felt like we were hindering the experience for others. I have no problem going back to this if you can't stop making throwaway comments at me.

[innocentvillager]

Racer64 is being prodded for the third time, and has 24 hours to make a game-advancing post or be replaced.

	VOTECOUNT 2.1
Player	Being voted by (in chronological order)	Number of Votes
1. Kaori Miyazono	gigabyteTroubadour	1
2. fiddlercrabontheroof
3. gigabyteTroubadour
4. Racer64	DoctorPepper	1
6. kraska77
7. RadiantCowbells
8. DoctorPepper	RadiantCowbells	1

Not voting: Kaori Miyazono, fiddlercrabontheroof, kraska77, Racer64

Deadline to lynch is in (expired on 2016-07-15 21:37:02)

With 7 eligible to vote, it's 4 votes to lynch

Please let me know if there are errors in the VC, or if you have any questions in general. Don't forget to bold such requests to me.

[innocentvillager]

As a general note to everyone on the recent arguments: I'm mostly fine with what I've seen, and thanks to those of you who are trying to keep this in the spirit of an instructional Newbie and/or avoiding getting too personal. Also, I have no problem with profanity as long as it's not a personal attack.

Ideally, it is always better to err on the side of civility when you can, as it makes the game more fun for everyone (especially since this is a Newbie), but I understand that this is a game of argument and that sometimes even non-personal attacks can be hurtful and emotionally manipulative.

Sorry, mod out. Carry on

[DoctorPepper]

to be honest, the entire game needs a prod

[kraska77]

okay here's my promised analysis
first things first, koari started by misrepping house's posts to put a case together
starting with post #346
his exchange with house on the utility of voting basically amounts to nothing more but clogging up the thread with useless banter that he knows is useless as an experienced player. even us newbies are aware that you can vote people to pressure them into talking but not really want them lynched. basically: someone's not talking enough, naturally town would find the lack of input concerning and vote them to put pressure. that does not mean you have lynch intent at the time of voting. i know you know all of this but im typing this out so you have no way of twisting the facts or denying that your claim about voting is shit.

boy...the wifom here is just:
post #383: "You want to assert you are a town leader and solid townread, fine!

Why, as scum, would I choose to try and lynch you rather than use that super special talent scum has at night?"
wifom mindfuck or shdghjgfhkdfh? what do we make of this?

post #396: "What do I do as scum? Here's the thing- I lurk, or I push lynches for absolutely outrageous things that usually go through within 48 hours of gamestart or me replacing in. There is no in-between.

Scum-notscience is a survivalist at heart. I will happily cut the cords of my teammates if I have to in order to get the deepest I can in a game. I don't stick my neck out."
isnt this self contradictory? dhhjefkskds
koari says he either lurks or tries to push for outrageous lynches. and then says that doesnt require him sticking his neck out? obviously it does. pushing for outrageous lynches means you'll HAVE to put yourself out there
considering the context at the time of this post and how noone was even considering house as a lynch candidate...koari was certainly pushing for an outrageous lynch. but anyway.

considering that koari's next move was voting house, by koari's earlier statements, this vote had lynch-intent. which is interesting because he later declares RC as his top lynch candidate...i'll get to that later in this post.

then suddenly, an unvote in post #429 and a reads list.
note that, up to this point, koari has only questioned house, has barely mentioned harlii at all, and actually praised RC for finding fault with house's play early in the game.
suddenly we see koari retreating and mellowing on house, and decentralicing the pressure.

koari later in the game says that he got his reads through a process of elimination. if so i would really love to know why he reads harlii as town.
anyway, back to analysis. we're at post #437 now
"When have you ever seen RC so laid back and disengaged?"
^this is the entirety of koari's case against RC. seriously. and it doesnt change later.

DO YOU GUYS NOTICE HOW DIFFICULT IT IS TO ACTUALLY COMMENT ON KOARI'S POSTS BECAUSE THEYRE SO DAMN CONTENTLESS? :@ i do not see him even attempting to generate content. no reasonable questions asked and no proper cases against the players he finds scummy or reasons for players he find town. basically all he said was "if im lynched and i flip green, lynch rc or house next coz one of them is scum kthx"

1-his reasons for dp being town amount to nothing more than meta that he even admits is rusty when he said they havent played together
2-gives inequilivical attention to house then suddenly turns on RC without even directing any questions at him to generate info,
3-townreads harlii, who hasnt made a decent push on anyone throughout the game or done any real scumhunting
4-without explaining himself, has me, RC, house and racer as a scum pool.

now we're at post#470
when asked for lynch candidates:
"My pool of 4 sans House."
interesting interesting. and now lets go back to post #450 in which he said to house: "I didn't have "an expectation" of you as town. I saw you acting buddy buddy with those defending you and flipping out on those accusing you, and that bothered me. Along with the other things I brought up."
guys he knew if he mellowed on house and decentraliced the pressure or redirected it at a target who was convenient for low activity at the time(RC) that house would get off him. and surpriseshock, that's exactly what happened.
i would still like to point out that koari's case against RC is "When have you ever seen RC so laid back and disengaged?" how does RC even reply to that? he did not attempt to converse with RC, did not put any real pressure on him, did not attempt to convince others of why he thinks RC is scum.

my theory is, koari knew neither house nor RC were likely to get lynched on day1, and knew that if he mellowed on house, house would get off him and so koari himself wouldny get lynched either. he was anticipating future events. he knew that either house or RC are likely to lead the wagon for whichever lynch that will go through, and so he conveniently declared them as persons of suspicion. at that time ai-shuuu had not posted yet, im sure he would have conveniently included ai-shuuu in his scum pool too if he had.

post #483: "I have a question but it will wait, because I'm not sure if I missed it or if it's the answer to house's question." what was the question?

post #510: "The pool was RC/Kraska/racer/you

In descending order of interest in lynching prior to recent events"
notice the last sentence: "prior to recent events". just goes to validate what i said earlier about his read on ai-shuuu
he's heavily implying here that his reads have changed since #470 and the only notable happenings since then is ai-shuuu getting on house(incidentally this is exactly what koari did earlier)


then post #512. reply to house's question on why koari is townreading foe's slot
koari replies:
"If I recall, I liked his fight with DP. Part of it *was* how you were interacting with him so it's not totally strong (as in, I would not actively oppose his lynch, but wouldn't likely be a part of it)"
in what world is a town read a read yo do not oppose a lynch against. like i said, koari was caught off guard when the main day 1 wagon started to look like it's going to be ai-shuuu and so he tries to patch up his reads to make it look like he finds ai-shuuu spot mildly suspicious

and then, convenient silence until day2, weakly justified by post 512 which does not add up with his early list where he put foe as a town read.

koari's comments on day1's events on day 2?
"RC is scum.

DP is town."
smh why are we not lynching this guy. WHY

post#709
"Because you have not done anything to make me think you are town?"
omg did you not praise RC for getting on house in your entrance posts?


ok general comments:
first things first. it is interesting that koari is saying he'll vote RC. he wont vote me, even though he said "Also, that hammer was shit as fuck and should neither have happened not been condoned." it's because he knows he'll be in deep shit if he gets me lynched and i flip green. he knows he'll be caught dead and wont have a way to walk around it. RC on the other hand has not been on him as much as me and also has been low activity for the majority of day 1. koari knows that lynching RC or putting pressure on him is a safer bet
@DP
let's face it, noone was buying your case on foe, and foe lynch would not have happened in the first place had RC not posted his case on him towards the end of day 1. so please stop what you're doing. your row with RC makes me think you're town. im saying i believe you. i think koari is manipulating you onto RC.

[kraska77]

in light of reading ISO's
im opposed to a racer lynch. funny thing is im only beginning to put him on the more towny side of the scale after seeing everyone's reaction to him so far.

my theory is racer's wagon on day 1 might actually be a counter wagon. a counter wagon against either harlii or koari. idk. i was waiting the entire day 1 for someone to say something, to atleast oppose racer's lynch a little bit. but noone did. it seemed whenever a wagon formed on another player, it would always keep switching back to racer, and then back to some other player again, then back to racer when wagoners mellow on the earlier lynch candidate. racer was consistently a person of suspicion. the problem is he was consistently a person of suspicion FOR EVERYONE. that is until house implied he thinks racer's play was just bad town play towards the end of day1. if house was not NKed i probably would have pushed him to explain this and would have still had racer as lynch candidate today. but house is green now for sure. so...
why were we kept alive? i think mafia thought town would be after racer again. this is why im not feeling good about a racer lynch.

VOTE: koari

[kraska77]

edit: "1-his reasons for dp being town amount to nothing more than meta that he even admits is rusty when he said they havent played together" for a while***

[gigabyteTroubadour]

hey guys just popping in to say that i'm pretty deep into this town!RC wallcase

As for what Kraska has written... (mostly in response to 783)

Taking a look at my wagon spreadsheet (I can link it to anyone interested), the Racer "wagon" was really only House's thing (and mine). so I'm not too sure I agree that Racer is lynchbait. Harlii hopped on it towards the end but I think if he stayed in the game he would have gotten off of it. I think the deaths happened the way they did for entirely different reasons I'm not ready to discuss until our friend Kaori answers 683 (and 724) for me.

And, kraska, if you believe Racer is lynch bait, then what are your reads on Harlii/Fiddler and me? Based on process of elimination, if Racer, RC, and DP are town, then either me or fiddler have to be KM's scumbuddy from your PoV.

I suppose that at the moment I, too, would be opposed to a Racer lynch because there's not enough to really push a wagon but I still scumread him over Fiddler.

Fixed -IV

[gigabyteTroubadour]

@Mod, it looks like my link to post #724 broke! Mind fixing it? Thanks!

and also thank you so much kraska for 782

Fixed -IV

[kraska77]

yeah i feel better about koari/fiddler being a scum team than koari/racer
tbh my post on racer is just intuitive...stuff that rubs me the wrong way...oh and by counter wagon i just meant that mafia would either let it happen/not oppose it/not bring up another lynch candidate...or they just conveniently join and express suspicion against racer. didnt mean mafia have to start the wagon
the thing is RC's case against foe came really late and for a good chunk of the second half of day 1 it really looked like racer was going to get lynched and no one was opposed to it
idk tbh racer really looks scummy but i feel like im taking this stuff at face value and letting harlii's play that was scummy in a more subtle/nuanced way slide. people were divided on koari and harlii, people were not divided on racer. either way koari is the common denominator so he's who im voting today

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Wallcase: RC is Town

RC's entrance definitely put a lot of attention on him. Saying that his vote was non-rvs (and the second vote on someone) showed that it came from reading an actually scummy action. This is not alignment indicative, mind you.

What did make me think RC is town from that beginning, though, is that he went after Foedufafa (an OMGUS, technically). I know House townread this based off of meta, but I think that a scum player would have approached this differently.

Let's put ourselves in scum!RC's shoes. So, you join a game, and you see House, an experienced townie, being overly defensive about a seemingly-RVS vote. He already has a vote on him, and he's being fairly scummy, so this looks like a good wagon to start pushing.

House defends himself by pointing out how naked votes are anti-town, and, since you are scum, you want to throw doubt at him by pointing out how you dislike his belief that anti-town = scum. (I still don't think this was the correct interpretation of post 36 but w/e)

But here's where things start to get weird. Foe votes for you, which is incredibly frustrating because the wagon you're pushing isn't working. You're busy in real life, so you can't really defend yourself and promise elaboration after your V/LA. House then says that he plays his IC games differently than normal (he didn't directly say this, but he meant that he wants to set a good example and thus cares about town acting anti-town).

Scumarcee now has a few options:

• A: Keep going after House, since you know you can defend yourself against his accusations.
  
  B: Unvote House and say that you will wait until after your V/LA to make a better decision.
  
  C: Go after an entirely different person.

The only newbie games I've read from RC are 1711 and 1693 (both of which were town games). I think I have somewhat of a sense of his personality, and from that I'm under the assumption that he would not want to go with option B. I should note that, in my opinion, option B might have been the best choice for a scum RC to make because, as I see it, RC has (and had) very little credibility throughout this game. Option B might have helped RC salvage that lost credibility, even if he went back to accusing House.

So that leaves A and C. C would make a scum!RC even less credible, which effectively strips him of any power to push wagons. A shows conviction to a belief, even if it's not one the Town agrees with, which leads to some chance of building credibility in the future.

The thing is, RC went with what is probably the worst option for scum! From just that early game interaction, trying to apply a scum motivation onto RC just does not compute. RC is a good scumplayer and I'm sure he knows how to make strange plays effectively, which is why I believe House expected a scum!RC to go with option A, and I think anyone familiar with RC would expect it too.

In summary, bringing a lot of attention and drama to his entrance is definitely a move most scum would shy away from, but I'm sure a scum!RC would have made the same sort of entrance. What makes the interaction seem town is that RC does not care about saving face and instead adapts his reads, which shows that his interests lie not in hiding but seeking scum.

Now, gaining credibility and pushing for mislynches is of course not the only scum strategy, and it's definitely not the best. The thing is, there's not much else to point to from RC's activity that, with a scum mindset in mind, also doesn't suggest a scumbuddy in DP (namely RC's V/LA pausing for him to ask people to get off the DP wagon for no clear reason (which is fine, RC, it was your opinion and you had a right to express it) and then starting a new wagon on someone I'm fairly sure is town, and also staging a very convincing TvT fight to breed apathy and lower the pool of lynch targets).

So, in a nutshell: If you're going to scumread RC, scumread DP too. The issue with that is that they're both town.

And, Kaori, big question I have to ask: Why aren't you townreading Kraska?

[gigabyteTroubadour]

and I think the failed case vs. foe shows a willingness to actually scumhunt, i don't think scum!RC would want to write a wallcase on something he knew was wrong. Like I said, I don't think RC had much credibility during the day because his opinion usually was different from that of the town, so it's not like a scum!RC would expect people to listen to his wallcase.

[DoctorPepper]

I appreciate the wallcase, I just have to ask why was the day before a different scenario, with people calling RCs non rvs vote scummy, and him not giving off any interactions
. wallcases can be made by town or scum. Mot alignment indicative. What will be alignment indicative is if RC has a tendency to do more in which alignment, which needs a meta check.

Kraska's case is actually pretty good. I feel like scum Kraska would have tried to push a lynch on me based on my interactions with RC instead of move on to someone else.
My big issue is as much as your case is convincing, gut tells me this is town kaori. I dont know why, but FWIW, my gut has been off on Kaori in the past.

Im interested in what the rest of the playerbase has to say

[DoctorPepper]

I dont agree with the Racer analysis. But in all honesty I cant see enough content from the Racer slot to get anything

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I appreciate the wallcase, I just have to ask why was the day before a different scenario, with people calling RCs non rvs vote scummy, and him not giving off any interactions
. wallcases can be made by town or scum. Mot alignment indicative. What will be alignment indicative is if RC has a tendency to do more in which alignment, which needs a meta check.

i'm not really sure what you're asking in your first question?

And I definitely do agree with you about wallcases, it's just that I don't think it would have been the right move for a scum!RC to make unless Racer is scum!RC's scumbuddy, since we were pretty ready to lynch him until he presented his case.

[DoctorPepper]

Why was he being townread after the nullread yesterday

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Why was he being townread after the nullread yesterday

oh like real life yesterday (really two days ago)

He was a nulltownread. I choose to keep him at nulltown because there's still the issue of a lack of activity, but I'm sure that in in-game today he will make up for it and strengthen my read (or completely undermine it, who knows). Unless I can see clear town or scum motivation from only a few posts (like I felt I was able to with Racer, but since it's been a week I'm feeling less confident), people with low activity are inherently going to be nullreads.

The exception here is still you (in terms of nullreads) because I really do not know what to make of you. I'm leaning town but I can't give my reasons, as I have stated earlier.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

so the point is my read hasn't really changed, it's just that i wrote a wallcase on a nulltown read

[fiddlercrabontheroof]

I really like Kraska's case, that pushes her fully into town for me. I have one question for her tho, is your scumread on me because of Harlii's actions or have I done something?
Also, are we going to try to push Racer by votes, or just wait for a replacement?

[DoctorPepper]

I really like Kraska's case, that pushes her fully into town for me. I have one question for her tho, is your scumread on me because of Harlii's actions or have I done something?
Also, are we going to try to push Racer by votes, or just wait for a replacement?

so where's that analysis on everything else

[innocentvillager]

Replacing Racer64.

Prodding RadiantCowbells and Kaori Miyazono.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Posting a pretty contentless prod dodge because there's not really much I can add without any movement from this game, and with the site going down it's been two days since I last posted...