Micro 622: Queen Mafia GAME OVER

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Post Post #475 (ISO) » Sat Jul 09, 2016 12:33 pm

Post by Fire Assassin »

In post 474, Elyse wrote:My point is that your case was so bad that if you actually pursued it, people would take notice and give you heat for it. Hence the back off
Yeah, I don't think thats the case.
I am pretty sure if I was scum I would continue pushing it, but I have no clue. Ill ask my scumself if I ever in similar situation again to inform me what I would actually do.
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Post Post #476 (ISO) » Sat Jul 09, 2016 1:48 pm

Post by Postie »

In post 453, duppin wrote:You keep claiming that anyone not playing their typical towngame isn't necessarily scum which is true, but they aren't necessarily town either.
So what don't you understand? I've already explained that I formed a townread on Ari
independantly
of this (see readswall), not because of it.
In post 454, duppin wrote:I'd mainly like to hear your read on me and TTH.
PoE.
I have a townread on everyone who isn't you, TTH, and GL. I'm scumreading GL. Therefore I believe GL is scum and one of you or TTH is his partner.
Leaning towards it being TTH based mostly on gut (and also now your being mildly towny), but I can ISO TTH to try and pinpoint why I'm feeling that way if you like.
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Post Post #477 (ISO) » Sat Jul 09, 2016 1:49 pm

Post by Postie »

In post 455, BNL wrote:and I think that is town.
u r wrong
In post 457, BNL wrote:
In post 390, Postie wrote:If I'm right about GL/TTH then them swinging an L-1 wagon over from someone townreading GL to an L-1 wagon on someone scumreading both of them makes perfect sense.
There's a problem with this. Postie hasn't stated a scumread on TTH before GL voted her.
Why's that a problem?
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Post Post #478 (ISO) » Sat Jul 09, 2016 1:50 pm

Post by Postie »

In post 460, Fire Assassin wrote:I don't agree with your analysis on it, and to be honest I think your reasons for townreading me and others are very weak and not very alignment indicative.
I disagree strongly. For example, Iprobablysuck has shown the kind of newbtown behaviour where when I see it I instantly write the person off as conftown until further notice. And when it comes to making a read like that on a newbie, I've never been wrong before. I would bet the game on most of my townreads.
In post 460, Fire Assassin wrote:For example "Scum!Fire would not be snarky here" isn't really a good reason, as I can be snarky at any point as either alignment I believe.
Well, sure, but I highly doubt you would have been as scum in that specific context. You had the choice of making a post and either phrasing it in a way that is helpful and potentially gets you townread or adding a snarky tone that instantly makes it look 80% less helpful and town.
Why would you, as scum, purposely choose to write a post in a way that makes you less likely to be townread when you could just... not do that...
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Post Post #479 (ISO) » Sat Jul 09, 2016 1:55 pm

Post by Postie »

In post 463, GuiltyLion wrote:First, some context - the post she quoted is from a Newbie game, where someone asked "If you could go back in time and tell yourself one thing about this game before you started playing, what would it be?". So like, from the context of the question I'm answering, it means that the "dangerous fallacy" is a pattern of thinking that I have fallen into before, or tend to fall into, because I'm literally talking about something I would tell past!me. I even say in the quote that I still always try to focus on it, because it's a mistake that's bitten me many times before.

So even if we grant Postie the point/argument that I'm doing to Aristophanes what I said not to do in this post, her argument is weakened because in context, town!me is saying this is a mistake that I should always try to avoid. That doesn't mean I'm perfect, that doesn't mean town!me will never do it.
>says this is a mistake he tries to avoid
>doesn't reevaluate his push on Aristo
In post 463, GuiltyLion wrote:Finally, she's ignoring evidence that I'm in town!scumhunting mode in this very game!
Note @ everyone: things don't stop being scummy just because you haven't done them in other places. That's not how scumtells work.
In post 468, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 435, Postie wrote:I strongly oppose any assertion that anyone not playing to their typical towngame is likely scum because of it. Playstyles can vary from game to game.
In post 446, Postie wrote:I want GuiltyLion lynched today for what I highlighted in ;
GL is playing directly contrary to how he
knows
he should be playing the game as town.
Also, Postie - why is your bolded here different than what you said in ? Because I'm sitting here seeing you saying Aristophanes is not scum for not playing to his towngame, and then saying I am scum for not playing to something I said I should do as town.
In Ari's case it's his playstyle that's changing, which is fine, because playstyles do that. In your case,
it's your level of knowledge about the game
.
There's a huge difference between those two things and you know it.
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Post Post #480 (ISO) » Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:47 pm

Post by The Show Must Go On »

Votecount 1.20:


Postie (3): duppin, GuiltyLion, TellTaleHeart
Aristophanes (2): Elyse, Fire Assassin
Fire Assassin (1): Wingback
GuiltyLion (1): Postie
Elyse (0):
BulletNLynchproof (0):
Wingback (0):
TellTaleHeart (0):
duppin (0):

Not Voting (2): Aristophanes, BulletNLynchproof

With 9 alive it's 5 to lynch.

Day ends in (expired on 2016-07-12 17:00:00).

Song:
Queen: Spread Your Wings



Notes:
:)
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Post Post #481 (ISO) » Sat Jul 09, 2016 5:06 pm

Post by Wingback »

I'll respond to individual posts as I catch up on the last third of the game.
In post 434, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 430, Wingback wrote:I also do feel that Postie pushing an early counterwagon to Aristophanes makes sense for a partner to do which makes both of those scumreads stronger
This is referring to her vote on Fire Assassin, correct? Why do you call the FA vote an early counter wagon when Elyse was already an early counterwagon? Like I feel like you could make this point about Postie pushing any non-Aristophanes wagon, or any non-Postie player pushing a non-Aristophanes wagon, it doesn't actually link the two of them together (outside of hindsight if they are actually both scum).

idk I like most of the things that you've said but they feel a little
too
consistent with the current thread temperature. I'd rather flip within Postie/Aristo first though.
It doesn't link the two of them together. I was independently scumreading both of them. Aristophanes was the center of attention early in the game. Postie ignoring that and pushing elsewhere re-inforced my suspicions about both of them. If I didn't have other reasons to scumread them both, I wouldn't have found it notable.

Postie is universally scumread because she's obviously scum. I do find it pleasantly surprising that most people see what I see regarding Postie. I'm not as sure about Aristo but I'll follow up on it once caught up.
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Post Post #482 (ISO) » Sat Jul 09, 2016 5:25 pm

Post by Wingback »

In post 456, BNL wrote:I also like Wingback for town, for the following reasons:
1) Many of his thought processes match mine. These are my stance on GuiltyLion a while ago (though he's leaning scum now), and read on Duppin and Fire Assassin.
2) With the structure of the game so far, lurking is a towntell, or at least he isn't scum with Postie or Aristo. He has shown that he has been been online, just that he was not posting. If he was scum with either Postie or Aristo, I'd expect his buddy to say in the scum PT something like "Partner, I'm at L-1, DO SOMETHING", and he wouldn't be just stuck at page six.
1. Why are you are townreading me for matching your thoughts when you posted them in thread first? It would have been different if I said something you were thinking but not saying aloud in thread.

2. This is a really convoluted reason to townread me. Why do you think I as town haven't posted? I suppose you assumed I was too busy to post. If that were the case, wouldn't I also be too busy to post as scum?
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Post Post #483 (ISO) » Sat Jul 09, 2016 5:49 pm

Post by Wingback »

In post 472, Elyse wrote:I just don't see a townie reading a case, disagreeing with it, and then townreading someone for it. Like if the case is good, why do you disagree with it? It makes more sense coming from an informed point of view.
BNL never said he thought the case was good. He just said he was townreading Fire for the case. That could mean any number of things most likely scenarios being that BNL thought Fire's thought process was town, or that he though Fire's aggression was town, or that he thought Fire sounded like he believed in his case even if he BNL saw it as misguided.
In post 472, Elyse wrote:You're right. It makes more sense if BNL is town.
Why did you think they were scumbuddies at that point?
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Post Post #484 (ISO) » Sat Jul 09, 2016 5:50 pm

Post by Postie »

In post 481, Wingback wrote:Postie is universally scumread because she's obviously scum.
lol

When I flip town you are officially fired from scumhunting and sheep my reads instead, yeah?
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Post Post #485 (ISO) » Sat Jul 09, 2016 6:37 pm

Post by Wingback »

Alright, caught up. Postie is so ridiculously scummy it's not even funny. Adding to the stuff I pointed out in my first two posts, I don't buy for a second that the reasons she's townreading Aristo for are genuine. The convoluted justification she gave for how the wagon makes him town is the biggest load of hogwash I've seen in a while. The only real question for me is whether she's doing the simplistic "white-knight a townie under pressure" dance or whether she's hoping that her defense of Aristo will clear him upon her flip because of the "hey, why would scum defend their partners so obviously" theory. Nothing about her readslist changed my mind, that's all stuff easily within the realm of what scum can fake, not to mention my three strongest townreads are the ones in her lynchpool which I found rather amusing. Didn't like her not addressing anything I said and reading me solely based on IPS, and the latest post smacks of trying to manipulate me into second-guessing my scumread.

VOTE: Postie

TTH, Duppin, and GuiltyLion are town, no question about it. Happy to elaborate on any of these if needed. I think there's a chance any of the other four could be a Postie partner: Elyse, Fire, BNL, and Aristo. I'm still leaning Aristo and have weaker townreads on the other three but I'll go over each of their ISO's over the next couple of days to make sure and lock it down.
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Post Post #486 (ISO) » Sat Jul 09, 2016 6:45 pm

Post by Postie »

In post 485, Wingback wrote:TTH, Duppin, and GuiltyLion are town, no question about it. Happy to elaborate on any of these if needed.
Humour me.
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Post Post #487 (ISO) » Sat Jul 09, 2016 11:11 pm

Post by BNL »

Okay, so the problem is that, while I do agree that Postie is scummy and has still been acting scummy,
there is too much support for her lynch
, to the extent that lynching Postie seems too easy, trappish, etc.

I do think that it is plausible that Postie is scum with someone that I would like to hide for now (no, not Wingback, I know I said that earlier but that's changed), but otherwise think Postie is a mislynch.

Or is being bussed. I actually haven't considered that thoroughly, I should probably find some potential bussers now.

tl;dr Postie is scummy but I have really bad feelings about the lynch.
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Post Post #488 (ISO) » Sat Jul 09, 2016 11:16 pm

Post by Postie »

In post 487, BNL wrote:I do agree that Postie is scummy
Why?
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Post Post #489 (ISO) » Sun Jul 10, 2016 12:24 am

Post by BNL »

In post 475, Fire Assassin wrote:
In post 474, Elyse wrote:My point is that your case was so bad that if you actually pursued it, people would take notice and give you heat for it. Hence the back off
Yeah, I don't think thats the case.
I am pretty sure if I was scum I would continue pushing it, but I have no clue. Ill ask my scumself if I ever in similar situation again to inform me what I would actually do.
What? Why are you trying to compare your play here to how you play as scum?
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Post Post #490 (ISO) » Sun Jul 10, 2016 3:02 am

Post by duppin »

In post 476, Postie wrote: (and also now your being mildly towny),
How is that post towny? What's up with the weak town reads this game by the way. (not aimed at you, several players have been giving out weird townreads)
but I can ISO TTH to try and pinpoint why I'm feeling that way if you like.
I'd like to hear it yes.
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Post Post #491 (ISO) » Sun Jul 10, 2016 3:04 am

Post by duppin »

Oh and,
In post 476, Postie wrote:
In post 453, duppin wrote:You keep claiming that anyone not playing their typical towngame isn't necessarily scum which is true, but they aren't necessarily town either.
So what don't you understand? I've already explained that I formed a townread on Ari
independantly
of this (see readswall), not because of it.
Because I don't understand your need to come out the way you did you weren't townreading him. I know you've explained yourself several times but I obviously still don't agree with your logic.
But I don't feel like this discussion is really getting anywhere at the moment.
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Post Post #492 (ISO) » Sun Jul 10, 2016 3:48 am

Post by BNL »

In post 488, Postie wrote:
In post 487, BNL wrote:I do agree that Postie is scummy
Why?
There's tons of stuff in my ISO about that, but there's more I haven't mentioned yet:
sounded really fake.
you mentioned that TTH and duppin scumreads were PoE, which seems contradictory to when you stated scumreads on them earlier.
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Post Post #493 (ISO) » Sun Jul 10, 2016 3:52 am

Post by BNL »

In post 487, BNL wrote:Or is being bussed. I actually haven't considered that thoroughly, I should probably find some potential bussers now.
I don't think Wingback is Postie's partner; if Wingback is scum it makes more sense for Postie to be a mislynch IMO.

I almost wanted to rule out GL off the top of my head, but seeing their double ISO there might have been some forced interactions. I'm still leaning that they aren't scumbuddies though.

Unfortunately I didn't have time today to research thoroughly. I'll continue tomorrow.
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Post Post #494 (ISO) » Sun Jul 10, 2016 6:42 am

Post by Elyse »

In post 483, Wingback wrote:
In post 472, Elyse wrote:I just don't see a townie reading a case, disagreeing with it, and then townreading someone for it. Like if the case is good, why do you disagree with it? It makes more sense coming from an informed point of view.
BNL never said he thought the case was good. He just said he was townreading Fire for the case. That could mean any number of things most likely scenarios being that BNL thought Fire's thought process was town, or that he though Fire's aggression was town, or that he thought Fire sounded like he believed in his case even if he BNL saw it as misguided.
In post 472, Elyse wrote:You're right. It makes more sense if BNL is town.
Why did you think they were scumbuddies at that point?
First thing is more theory I guess. I disagree but there's no point in arguing.

Idk I probably had confbias.
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Post Post #495 (ISO) » Sun Jul 10, 2016 11:29 am

Post by Aristophanes »

I hate all this buddying and I can't shake it, and her whiteknighting of me is just too much!
VOTE: Postie

I'll finish reading up soon.
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Post Post #496 (ISO) » Sun Jul 10, 2016 11:30 am

Post by Aristophanes »

That's L-1 btw.
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Post Post #497 (ISO) » Sun Jul 10, 2016 11:44 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

pretty sure that was actually a hammer

I plan on rereading over night, but
if Postie flips scum
I would guess her partner is in {Aristophanes, Fire Assassin, Elyse}.

If Postie flips town
then I'm mostly working from the same pool, only I think Elyse is probably townier and it would make Aristophanes
more likely
to be scum for:
1) possible intentional hammer on a mislynch while faking ignorance of the hammer
2) means Postie wasn't WKing the slot

also, a reminder in twilight that
I am ascetic
, so don't target me with anything if you don't want it roleblocked
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Post Post #498 (ISO) » Sun Jul 10, 2016 11:47 am

Post by Elyse »

Meh I'd have rather lynched Aris but hopefully Postie is scum.
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Post Post #499 (ISO) » Sun Jul 10, 2016 11:49 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

actually if Postie flips town then Wingback definitely needs to be considered, but Aristophanes would in any case still be scumread #1
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