Newbie 1718 [Game Over!] Mafia

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Post Post #925 (ISO) » Tue Jul 12, 2016 9:09 pm

Post by gigabyteTroubadour »

In post 372, Kaori Miyazono wrote:But it's interesting to see
the fire he puts into responding to someone suspecting him rather than finding someone
. It reads as defensive, and you yourself mentioned you can understand why he would be defensive!

Who in this game has the most to gain by playing so vehemently defensive?
In post 426, House wrote:And in no universe ever does notty/Kaori ask this question with any amount of sincerity.
In post 427, Kaori Miyazono wrote:Oh, fuck.
In post 429, Kaori Miyazono wrote:I do not want to be lynched until I can confirm DP has seen something so it can be questioned at a later time. (DP, please let me know if you see
what House is alluding to that all experienced players should see.
)

If House is not scum,
it is RC.
In post 429, Kaori Miyazono wrote:UNVOTE:

I realize what I missed. I'm going to be mislynched, but I'm not really going to fight it anymore. My main goal is to make sure DP sees what I see.
In post 433, Kaori Miyazono wrote:
I don't want it openly discussed
, I just want a simple yes/no.

Because if you are scum- it's just an attempt to abate the wagon on you, and
you kill RC, that means it never comes into question again.


It's a failsafe to make sure it can be discussed later.
Why did Kaori suddenly stop going after House? It's because of the thing that "all experienced players should have picked up": House was playing an incredibly obvious PR game! Also, Kaori strongly townread DP, which is why he put so much emphasis on DP knowing rather than both DP and RC knowing. Thing is, that may have made everything worse for town... But scum have no need to make sure anyone sees this, they can just coach their scumbuddy in the PT.
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Post Post #926 (ISO) » Tue Jul 12, 2016 9:13 pm

Post by Lycanfire »

I caught onto the exchange too, but the problem was that it was made while a Kaori lynch was on the table. Meaning, no night talk.
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Post Post #927 (ISO) » Tue Jul 12, 2016 9:18 pm

Post by DoctorPepper »

Am I really the only one who didn't see that House was a PR?
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Post Post #928 (ISO) » Tue Jul 12, 2016 9:21 pm

Post by Lycanfire »

I don't want to believe a Kaori/DP team because it would be stupid. I think Fiddler/DP is more likely due to DP persuing him without scumhunting him. This is my hell, because to proceed with DP as scum w/o RC as partner means to pick one of these teams.

Also... Why I'm not enthused to point this out to Fiddler.

I would
want
Kraska/RC to be the team because it wouldn't compromise the reads I made to get there. That's why looking at the game without RC/DP scumteam troubles me and why I need to case Kaori and Fiddler as town or scum to justify a lynch on one of the three teams. RC was a previously safe lynch to me, now he isn't.
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Post Post #929 (ISO) » Tue Jul 12, 2016 9:27 pm

Post by DoctorPepper »

Here's an idea, lynch me nowm so when I flip town, you guys have a slightly clearer view on everything now. I'm vote parked at this point. If this lynch will help town because there wouldn't be any more divisiveness and shit, and IV won't have to look for another replacement, and I wouldn't have to deal with people attacking me personally and discrediting me despite getting banned twice for doing so, then so be it.

VOTE DOCTORPEPPER, MAKE NEWBIE 1718 GREAT AGAIN
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Post Post #930 (ISO) » Tue Jul 12, 2016 9:29 pm

Post by gigabyteTroubadour »

In post 926, Lycanfire wrote:I caught onto the exchange too, but the problem was that it was made while a Kaori lynch was on the table. Meaning, no night talk.

Oh, true... But that just makes a Lycan/Kaori scumteam seem possible still :D

I agree that a Kaori/DP scumteam is incredibly stupid, their interactions really read SvT to me, mostly through gut.

Fiddler/DP is
buyable
but...?? After the ai_shuuu flip I'm really not inclined to scumread fiddler and Harlii for their play. Their scumreads made sense at the time but after the mislynch I feel that we're overthinking it now. I understand why Kraska is scumreading him though and she's pretty much the only person I'm OK with feeling that way (personal experience and all that).

also newbie 1718, like the united states, was never great to begin with :D
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Post Post #931 (ISO) » Tue Jul 12, 2016 9:40 pm

Post by Lycanfire »

In post 929, DoctorPepper wrote:Here's an idea, lynch me nowm so when I flip town, you guys have a slightly clearer view on everything now. I'm vote parked at this point. If this lynch will help town because there wouldn't be any more divisiveness and shit, and IV won't have to look for another replacement, and I wouldn't have to deal with people attacking me personally and discrediting me despite getting banned twice for doing so, then so be it.

VOTE DOCTORPEPPER, MAKE NEWBIE 1718 GREAT AGAIN
:facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: You have two and a half people skeptical about your lynch what is the town motive for this

My pride isn't going to let me vote you. I'm calling the team today regardless of your shitposts.
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Post Post #932 (ISO) » Tue Jul 12, 2016 9:53 pm

Post by DoctorPepper »

Town motive - stop dividing town, have a lymch before deadline, not fuck up tomorrows lylo :)
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Post Post #933 (ISO) » Tue Jul 12, 2016 9:58 pm

Post by gigabyteTroubadour »

Hmm... Thoughts on a Fiddler/Lycan/Kraska/Kaori/RC LYLO? Assuming that this is, in fact, a LYLO...

I just dunno, I feel like we should keep a town!DP around for LYLO because we have an unkillable conftownie. But it just doesn't seem likely.

My responsibility here though is to hammer DP/Lycan/Kaori, though, so I'll definitely have my mind made up then.
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Post Post #934 (ISO) » Tue Jul 12, 2016 10:07 pm

Post by DoctorPepper »

I do not want to be in tomorrow's lylo simply because
a) scum can take advantage of me and RC fighting and get me lynched, town loses
b) if im wrong about RC and he ends up inexplicably town, Im killing this town by wanting him lynched
c) my judgment has been too cloudy emotionally to think on who is actually acum based on today.
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Post Post #935 (ISO) » Tue Jul 12, 2016 11:35 pm

Post by RadiantCowbells »

In post 925, gigabyteTroubadour wrote:
In post 372, Kaori Miyazono wrote:But it's interesting to see
the fire he puts into responding to someone suspecting him rather than finding someone
. It reads as defensive, and you yourself mentioned you can understand why he would be defensive!

Who in this game has the most to gain by playing so vehemently defensive?
In post 426, House wrote:And in no universe ever does notty/Kaori ask this question with any amount of sincerity.
In post 427, Kaori Miyazono wrote:Oh, fuck.
In post 429, Kaori Miyazono wrote:I do not want to be lynched until I can confirm DP has seen something so it can be questioned at a later time. (DP, please let me know if you see
what House is alluding to that all experienced players should see.
)

If House is not scum,
it is RC.
In post 429, Kaori Miyazono wrote:UNVOTE:

I realize what I missed. I'm going to be mislynched, but I'm not really going to fight it anymore. My main goal is to make sure DP sees what I see.
In post 433, Kaori Miyazono wrote:
I don't want it openly discussed
, I just want a simple yes/no.

Because if you are scum- it's just an attempt to abate the wagon on you, and
you kill RC, that means it never comes into question again.


It's a failsafe to make sure it can be discussed later.
Why did Kaori suddenly stop going after House? It's because of the thing that "all experienced players should have picked up": House was playing an incredibly obvious PR game! Also, Kaori strongly townread DP, which is why he put so much emphasis on DP knowing rather than both DP and RC knowing. Thing is, that may have made everything worse for town... But scum have no need to make sure anyone sees this, they can just coach their scumbuddy in the PT.
Except that if he thought he was going down he'd want to alert his partner. Kaori was under a ton of pressure at that point.
2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.
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Post Post #936 (ISO) » Tue Jul 12, 2016 11:43 pm

Post by RadiantCowbells »

In post 931, Lycanfire wrote:
In post 929, DoctorPepper wrote:Here's an idea, lynch me nowm so when I flip town, you guys have a slightly clearer view on everything now. I'm vote parked at this point. If this lynch will help town because there wouldn't be any more divisiveness and shit, and IV won't have to look for another replacement, and I wouldn't have to deal with people attacking me personally and discrediting me despite getting banned twice for doing so, then so be it.

VOTE DOCTORPEPPER, MAKE NEWBIE 1718 GREAT AGAIN
:facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: You have two and a half people skeptical about your lynch what is the town motive for this

My pride isn't going to let me vote you. I'm calling the team today regardless of your shitposts.
like holy crap this is the most obvious scum/scum interaction I've ever seen.
2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.
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Post Post #937 (ISO) » Wed Jul 13, 2016 12:02 am

Post by gigabyteTroubadour »

RC, do you think it's correct to believe that if there were a roleblocker, House would have been roleblocked and someone else (presumably you, or me if you're scum) would have died?

I can go through and explain why I'm convinced the nightkill and set up are really closely related.
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Post Post #938 (ISO) » Wed Jul 13, 2016 6:19 am

Post by gigabyteTroubadour »

I'm suddenly more willing to believe DP is town solely because Lycan is the only scumbuddy that makes sense. Assuming I'm confirmed town in everyone else's PoV (no one scumreads me, so...?), these are all of the possible scumbuddies of DP:

Fiddler and Kaori make the least sense out of everyone. Makesnosense was literally the first person to vote for DP. There was nothing at stake that required bussing your partner, so why do it? Harlii gave very weak reasoning to join the wagon, why potentially risk losing your scumbuddy day 1 so early into the day? Both were newbies though so I
suppose
them assuming "Oh, I'll get easy towncred" could be a motivation, but it's just such a pointless risk I really have to wonder if they would do that.

Kraska doesn't really have any interesting associatives with DP. She joined too late in the game to be a part of his wagon, but going through her ISO her reads on him seem pretty organic. The two had very weak interactions (Kraska's DP read has changed multiple times and there was also the Kaori discussion, that's really about it), so I'm not sure what to make of that. I will say that reading Kraska's ISO pretty much strengthened my townread on her, her thought process is really clear and logical and I feel that out of the 7 living players she's the only one that can really have someone say that about them.

I know this was Lycan's red-herring scumteam but I have to wonder with recent events if he's going back here.

RC as DP's scumbuddy initially made sense, as double bussing as they did could have easily been planned, and the fight they did was very convincingly TvT. My hesitation about calling this the scumteam is A: the fact I townread RC, and B: the second time RC and DP fought, both sides seemed very sincere in how they felt. I'm not really sure to call it SvS, maybe TvT or TvS.

Lycan is the only person left. In terms of Racer and DP, Racer gave a very sketchy readslist in post that put DP as null for very little reason. He said that he agreed with Harlii's dislike of RC, but for some reason disagreed with his read on DP. If you think one player is scummy, why are you not scumreading the person who buddied him under false premises? There's more that's scummy with that one post but I would save it for a case against Lycan's slot, not for pointing out DP associatives. Lycan is also the only player who can really "bus" DP, as if DP is truly scum then he's pretty much indefensible at this point. I am interested in how I feel that Lycan has been pushing for RC/Kraska more than RC/DP, though...




At this point, it's either Lycan/Kaori or Lycan/DP from my PoV. Still intending to hammer which wagon gets going first.
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Post Post #939 (ISO) » Wed Jul 13, 2016 7:46 am

Post by gigabyteTroubadour »

Fiddler or RC, vote Lycan when you're back, we might as well go for the safest option here. If DP or Kaori disagree though I would like to know.
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Post Post #940 (ISO) » Wed Jul 13, 2016 8:43 am

Post by RadiantCowbells »

I don't want to deal with DP's crap. We're lynching them today, sorry.
2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.
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Post Post #941 (ISO) » Wed Jul 13, 2016 8:46 am

Post by gigabyteTroubadour »

Fine. I still intend to hammer.
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Post Post #942 (ISO) » Wed Jul 13, 2016 8:47 am

Post by RadiantCowbells »

Lycan's not waltzing away. I feel like enough people have bought into DrPepper's gambiting that he may not get lynched tomorrow when I'm gone. and for the record, you're not getting nightkilled tonight.
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Post Post #943 (ISO) » Wed Jul 13, 2016 10:27 am

Post by Lycanfire »

My problem with Harlii was that he didn't have any reasoning to go on the DP wagon. DP was obv day 1 scum to me until Kraska appeared and made him look tame. So not only did Harlii not have reasoning, because he was sheeping House, he also didn't need it, because in Harlii/DP, he could have been assuming that House had reasoning.

Except, House admits he didn't (#146). Harlii makes several comments about not being sold despite being putting DP to L-1, doesn't unvote for 4 posts. After House abandons the wagon in favor of Racer #262 Harlii begins to case House and actively works against himself... #267 he tries again and seems more upset at House than suspicious of his motives regarding the DP wagon. In Harlii/DP, it wouldn't seem strange to me for Harlii to try to case House if it seemed like House had nothing to begin with, but he makes the mistake of focusing on his perception in regards to House and how he feels incriminated, making it personal over something definitively scummy. His case references the House's giga gambit, which I liked a lot, so it was pointless. Harlii then revises this in #319 which seemed like an innocuous post until you think about why he was voting House at all.

Basically it seemed like he was waiting for someone to push a House wagon for him, esp. considering his case starts in 262 and he explicitly considers town motives for House. This was the case I was thinking of for Fiddler's slot, and working with DP as scum but NOT with RC scenario made me suspect this a lot more with DP vague Fiddler scumteams.

Kaori/DP was pure associatives. Super obvious, easy to mess up. And dumb.

I don't see Kraska/DP at all. There were some associatives, but as I already said they were obvious (Key) or weak-DP was in support of Kaori, while Kraska explicitly - or supposedly - wanted Kaori lynched, and no one else day 1. They interacted over this a few times. Kaori was the easiest lynch at least until Aishuu decided to implode, so why would they disagree on Kaori but agree on Aishuu if both were easy lynches?

UNVOTE:

Intent to vote DP but I want Kraska/Kaori posts + there's a self vote. Pretend that's mine.
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Post Post #944 (ISO) » Wed Jul 13, 2016 10:52 am

Post by gigabyteTroubadour »

In post 833, Lycanfire wrote:Harlii was obv noob town
So Harlii's slot is no longer obv town? I suppose I can see why, but does the fact that town is ready to lynch your scumbuddy have anything to do with it :D ?

In all seriousness though, I suppose I am more willing to consider Fiddler as DP's scumbuddy, but that's about it. I'm going to look through Harlii's ISO and his posts in context and see if that opinion strengthens. So far, though, it seems to me that Harlii had enough reasoning to go on the wagon in
his
mind. The actual logic might not make sense, but the internal did, and really that's enough to motivate a townie to sheep someone. I'll get back to Town tomorrow at the latest on this one.
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Post Post #945 (ISO) » Wed Jul 13, 2016 10:59 am

Post by Lycanfire »

My problem with Harlii was that the wagon on him looked scummy, and if I could read him I would read Kaori harder. This put the team on the Aishuu wagon, and I referenced my notes with that wagon to get RC/Kraska RC/DP. If I eliminate RC, I have to consider Kaori and Fiddler. If I want to keep my pride and consider you, I'd stick you on a scumteam with Kraska, not DP, but even then RC's associatives with Kraska are ten times worse.
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Post Post #946 (ISO) » Wed Jul 13, 2016 11:05 am

Post by Lycanfire »

But really, if it wasn't for DrPepper's attitude I'd prefer to lynch Kraska. Maybe I'm super salty over 1717 but my gut wants it badly. RC is either feels threatened that I am willing to contest town leadership from him or he's paranoid because he's never seen a scum game from me. That isn't helping me read him, because if he's town he won't work with me.
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Post Post #947 (ISO) » Wed Jul 13, 2016 11:13 am

Post by gigabyteTroubadour »

Lycan, this isn't really a question to gauge alignment or anything, but did you happen to know Foe's and House's alignments during your first read-through of the game?
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Post Post #948 (ISO) » Wed Jul 13, 2016 11:17 am

Post by Lycanfire »

No, but I townread both. Foe made a post where he found most of my DP notes posts and a few more (I didn't dislike them) but he was presenting the same arg I had in my notes against him. He was obvtown to me, that's why I said the Aishuu wagon was bad. House was unclear up until he gambited you and later Kaori arriving. He was bleeding town at that point. He made an obv pr post at some point but I never saved it in my notes because I stopped deep analysis around Kaori's arrival and started speedreading.
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Post Post #949 (ISO) » Wed Jul 13, 2016 11:59 am

Post by DoctorPepper »

RC if youre scum reading us both, it shouldnt matter what order the lynch is in. The fact that youre actively avoiding my easy lynch and choosing to say you want lycan first despite not moving your vote from him feels like you know I'll flip town and you want to move attention elsewhere
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