Open 647: Diffusion of Power (Game Over)

[Transcend]

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[Transcend]

Let's play a game of hangman since this game has gone stale.

6 strikes.

_ _ _ _ / _ _ _ _ _ _ _

[karnos]

So there are two schools of thought here. Persivul suggests that we lynch among the unconfirmed, while ranger, podo, & sircakez are still pushing to lynch "confirmed town" transcend. I think the main argument being that transcend claimed cop for the same day as dixc, who was flipped to confirm as town cop.

The unconfirmed are sircakez, chip butty, persivul, and anemeneni

Confirmed are ranger, murdercat, karnos, podo, transcend, penguin

If we lynch transcend, and he flips scum, awesome.

If we lynch transcend and he flips town cop, that does solidify penguin as town.

OTOH if we lynch among the non-confirmed, we have a pretty good chance to hit scum, if all the "confirmed town" are really town. If we do hit town in that group, it doesn't give us any clear information like how a town transcend would confirm penguin.

Meh, I don't know what my point is. I can see the argument for voting transcend. He is not my first choice, but right now he have some 3-5 potential scum and we are voting all over the place, in the interest of moving the game forward I'm doing this.
VOTE: Transcend

[Transcend]

uh did i get lynched lol

[karnos]

No, that is L-1. I was re-counting just to be sure.

[Transcend]

anyways this is ridiculous. this game has no credibility. dunnstral towntold his ass off day 1 and no one gave him benefit of the doubt except me and cakez and now you're doing the same shit to me. dunnstral quickhammered himself whereas i'm just trolling until i eat rope. it's sometimes really not fun playing in these tables. but i have had some fun tables.

[Transcend]

i meant day 2. he towntold his ass off d2.

[Transcend]

Anyways everyone acts like me tunneling Smithereens for my own personal benefit is indicative of me being scum. It's just me trying to achieve my wincon? I'd rather him dead, than him tunneling me the entire fucking game. I really would.

Dunnstral hammered Smithereens since he was the counter wagon.

[karnos]

Transcend

(5): SirCakez, Ranger, podoboq, Chip Butty, karnos
L-1

Wanted to look at this. 3 "confirmed town", 2 from unconfirmed pile. I've seen worse wagons. This *could* be all town, if transcend flips scum. If he flips town, we need to take a strong look at sircakez and chip butty.

[karnos]

One thing I have trouble with is your ranger is scum theory.

I don't buy the idea that scum would holster for that, because ranger was already mostly town read, was she not? Now, potentially it could have been scum ranger trying to get a kill, no kill so she claims doctor and gets some free town cred, but in that case the real doc would simply counterclaim. I just don't see a sensible explanation for a scum ranger here.

[Transcend]

well i fos ranger

like i said if she were scum that no-killed she didn't NK into a mislynch. she nk'd into mylo. which might've been optimal in many ways.

on top of her tunneling me and dunnstral without considering any options and ME KNOWING that we're both town along, i think she's on her way to coasting to an easy scum win.

[Transcend]

like i probably look like the biggest jackass for spending all of d2 appealing to scum to not lynch me.

[Transcend]

Guys all you have to do is use Ctrl+F. Ranger tunneled on Penguin early on. Then weakly pushes off after his lynch didn't happen to pursue me + dunn.

I'm beginning to think, believe it or not, that it's possible both {podoboq, PenguinPower} are town.
Possible.
I wouldn't cry if they were lynched, and I would not be surprised to see them flip scum.

I just don't have the confidence in their lynches I used to.
{Transcend, Dunnstral} are my strongest scumreads.

There's the possibility of me being wrong about one of my townreads (and if so, I know which one), but I don't want to reveal which one that would be at this time.

VOTE: Dunnstral.

Dunn -> Trans -> Podo (In any order)

No, Dunnstral THEN Transcend (or flipped), and from there, reconsider for the third. Maaaaaaaaaaaaaaybe podoboq, but not as likely as before. Pooooossibly PenguinPower, but unlikely. A bit more likely to be *secret scumread that was once a townread*, but I'm not positive at this stage. It's a ~feeling~ that I think a flip or two will help us with.

no list?

The problem with a readslist is that by the very nature of giving one, I'm showing my hand to everyone. At this point, I cannot give a readslist without also exposing the secret scumread I have. I'll say it's not you and it's not Smithereens, since you two are my absolute god-tier of town right now, but that's as much as I will say on my reads.

Ranger is kinda meh on Penguin UNTIL THIS FUCKING POST RIGHT HERE

Karnos and podo are both town
Murder is town
Penguin is confirmed town

These are all true.
At this point, I want to lynch Transcend, then {Persivul, SirCakez}.
If Transcend is scum, that's good game.
If Transcend's town, there's one more, and by necessity, in {Aneninen, Chip Butty}. That's a bridge I'd very much like to cross only if we come to it.

This is beyond a slip. She called Penguin confirmed town. Why would penguin be confirmed town? She was tunneling him or weak fosing him throughout the course of the entire game. I know for a fact that Penguin wouldn't have made her change her mind from d2 to d3. She validated my cop claim by calling Penguin confirmed town. This is a deliberate contradiction.

[Transcend]

Can someone unvote and treat my Ranger case as legitimate food for thought?

[Transcend]

Also I don't feel comfortable with my scumread (Aneninen) having hammer on me.

[MURDERCAT]

Yeah please get off transcend for a moment.

Would scum really no kill night one?

[PenguinPower]

Ok...sorry for the inactivity this weekend. Had a family emergency to attend to...reading through the thread now.

First, I'm kinda pissed that our two lynches so far had self-votes attached to them. That incenses me.

Second...karnos...starting to feel some not so good vibes from you, my friend.

VOTE: SirCakez

Had a scummy vibe from him yesterday, and today he it looks like he is trying to leverage the town flip of dunnstral into a lynch on
Persivul today. This just seems awful to me.

I don't disagree with Persivul's logic of lynching among the unconfirmed. Ranger also thought SirCakez was the 3rd scum, and I don't have a reason to doubt her doc claim considering we had no other explanation for the lack of a scumkill on n1. SirCakez is clearly the most likely scum among the unconfirmed 4.

Alternative theory...Ranger is scum and there was an intentional no-kill on N1. That allowed Ranger to claim Doctor on someone they knew as town and get instant credibility. Even if there was an N1 Doctor, there was only an 8% chance they would choose the same person. Now, that sounds somewhat "conspiracy-theorist," but it is a valid alternative, and one I know that we have used in previous games. For you not to think of it means you either intentionally weren't, or didn't want to mention it.

It's also quite possible that you are not N1 cop, and that you claimed podo to be conftown to strengthen your town claim. No one else CC N1 cop, but even if they had this setup allows for the possibility that there are multiple and you could have dealt with that if it did come up. You even clarify that in post #660.

Rangers scum reads have thus far been town, with his latest already having claimed N2 cop...and you've been onboard, even hammering the last one. I just want to throw out the possibility that you and Ranger may be scum together...with podo being iffy. He could have been town or scum that you wanted to make everyone believe was town.

p-edit

Ah...looks like a N1 no kill has already been brought up.

[MURDERCAT]

If there's a n1 no kill you risk a different doc claiming the save though so ranger wouldn't be confirmed in that case, so it doesn't seem like a great play.

[Transcend]

murder can you tell everyone to unvote me

[karnos]

Alternative theory...Ranger is scum and there was an intentional no-kill on N1. That allowed Ranger to claim Doctor on someone they knew as town and get instant credibility. Even if there was an N1 Doctor, there was only an 8% chance they would choose the same person.

What does picking the same person have anything to do with it?

Look it's N1 you as a doctor save ANYONE.

Day 2, ranger announces she saved person X and that is why there was no kill.

As a town doctor, from your POV, there are two possibilities here: ranger is truthful, but she thinks she saved person X when the scum could have been trying kill person Y. you would claim doc and announce who you saved, and ultimately neither X or Y would be 100% confirmed, because town doesn't know which one was the kill target.

Alternatively, ranger could be scum. In this case, you would still want to counter claim, scum@!ranger could be pulling the gambit because of your save (thus your target is confirmed town) or, extremely unlikely IMO, scum may have holstered to play a gambit.

So it's not 8% chance of a doctor picking the same person, it's whatever chance that ANY night 1 doctor exists at all. I haven't done the math, but I think it's a pretty high chance (but obviously not 100%). Enough that a scum wouldn't count on there not being one, but not so much that lack of multiple N1 doc claims is a red flag.

[karnos]

Yeah please get off transcend for a moment.

Would scum really no kill night one?

Murdercat is confirmed town either way.

We still have time, so I'll

UNVOTE:

If I got some discussion going, thats good enough for me now. My preference is still in a sircakez lynch, it just seemed that nobody else was interested in going there.

[Transcend]

i can breathe

we don't have to rope ranger today

i just really want one of chip anen or ranger dead today.

i think that cakez and pers are town. more sure about pers!town than cakez!town but i'm feeling cakez!town p hard rn as well.

[Persivul]

why would you believe all the claims? Transcend's claim is scummy as shit.

What makes it scummy?

It's CCing flipped town

How has he CC'd flipped town? What am I missing? If he has indeed done so, we'll just lynch him now.

[karnos]

i just really want one of chip anen or ranger dead today.

Of the "confirmed townies" I'm most suspicious of you. If we aren't lynching you, I am not going to move to other confirmed town players. Especially not when we have a viable pool of potential scum outside of that.

Chip Butty or Aneneme are possibles for me. Through process of elimination, at least one of them is probably scum.

[Transcend]

And just why might you be suspicious of me? Do tell.