Mini 1815: Game of Thrones S1E1 GAME OVER

[Heartless]

mhsmith, you asked and we both bothered to give our take on Wisdom. Do you have anything to add or did it bore you enough to not want to continue the conversation?

[Gorkington]

i feel like a replacement right now.
:/

[Heartless]

Great. >_>

OK, I guess I'm not doing enough. I'll take another crack at that reads list.

[mhsmith0]

mhsmith, you asked and we both bothered to give our take on Wisdom. Do you have anything to add or did it bore you enough to not want to continue the conversation?

Honestly, I didn't really have anything to add. Partially because I got a bit distracted by TW's "gladiate" bit.

But for one, you're overestimating the strength of my reads right now. I started out having 5 tiers (strong town-weak town-null-weak scum-strong scum) and the two extremes didn't end up getting filled at all so I nixed them. Looking back at the list, I'm not sure if random should be where he is but I'll have to see.

For another, I get the feeling that this Gork thing is just a distraction that Wis is pushing. It came out of nowhere and it was while the shadow wagon had solid backing so I'm not sure why Wisdom would gut the wagon he was ostensibly so sure about to chase this.

The "these are weak reads" bit de-emphasized the strength of them; I'd been under the impression you had strong reads there, so when you said they weren't strong it became a bit less interesting (I'd been leaning town on Wisdom and wolf on Gork at the time). I also started to feel better about Gork after our back and forth (basically back to null for me), so even though that wasn't directly discussed here (though I think it was the anti head who did below?), I wasn't as worried about it.

wrt Wisdom, I guess I can see the case there, but idk. I was also hoping Wisdom would get around to answering Gork's 539, but he hasn't bothered yet, which is bugging me a bit (I'm still curious what drove his read on my from that post - I have a guess but I'd like to see what his reasoning actually was). It's also kinda funny that Wisdom did a naked hop onto the dwlee wagon after you call him out for his Gork hop. I don't know if that was just jumping ship on a bad wagon or what, but the dwlee wagon seems sketchy enough that I'm suspicious of it, and am curious whether anyone actually comes up with a good reason for it at some point or not.

i mean... what's the big idea behind gork being scum anyway? gork schemes up this sooper sweet scum strategy and then proceeds to blurt it out and then blatantly troll about it?

Idk, he's weird

I mean, this is pretty much a non-response by Wisdom on the implied question of why Wisdom was scum-reading Gork. I'm also curious if Wisdom gets around to explaining his process in greater detail on this read as well. And by this point I was feeling better about Gork so I wasn't much interested in delving into Gork specifically.

[mhsmith0]

Smith is hundo percent scum

Scummy dwlee votes me naked for no reason right after I expose this

Sure fucking looking like hes trying to defend. I don't give a fuck if you're IC, I want to lynch scum

I mean...

1) I still don't particularly see the dwlee case (I also don't know dwlee well enough to know if the derp explanation for the quick vote TW cited was legitimate or not, but it at least seems plausible)

2) I don't recall UTL doing anything like "100% scum" in our game together, but it was just one game, and I don't know hiplop at all so idk if this is normal for them or not. Like, there are players who oversell stuff as town, but idk if they're among that list. Why anyone would actually have a strong read for the posts that TW cited (476, 689) is beyond me.

[mhsmith0]

UNVOTE:

Wait. I didn't see how many votes were already on her.

I scared the fuck out of myself. I thought this was a micro game, because Radja does a lot of micro games.

If it was, I would have just killed Frozen Angel.

So wrt kuroi, IMO this incident either basically derp-clears him or is completely fake. Like, does kuroi make these kinds of posts as a wolf? Anyone here familiar w his meta and range when he's a wolf?

PS Notably, wisdom quick-voted kuroi right after this, which implies that wisdom thought it was fake. Wisdom, why did you think this was fake by kuroi?

[Gorkington]

vote: kuroi

sure.

[mhsmith0]

@gork: thoughts on kuroi's 76/82? You familiar w/ his wolf meta? Does he do this sort of fake dumb tell as wolf?

[Gorkington]

i dont doubt its beyond his capability as scum.
im not particularly familiar with his evil-side.

[mhsmith0]

wait, so you're saying you think he's not capable of it? Or am I misreading you?

[Gorkington]

durr.
words are hard.
i meant that its something that he/most people are probably capable of faking as scum.

[Heartless]

The fact that he didn't re-vote Frozen Angel once he realized the "mistake" but kept up the attack makes me think "completely fake."

I also feel like in the post where he originally voted FA, he's trying to say be cautious and say "town" things:

VOTE: frozen angel
Serious vote

serious shit

whats your case

You're flipping your shit over a RVS wagon three pages into the game.

Yeah. You know what? SirCakez was pretty much articulating what I didn't like. VOTE: Frozen Angel Demanding a case like we're sitting on piles of evidence in a game on its third game sounds preposterous.

I'm fine with voting her until someone scummier comes along.

"I'm fine with voting her until someone scummier comes along." should sort of go without saying and feels like it's tossed in there to say "look at how reasonable I am, that's town!"

I disliked how he started off taking such issue with Wisdom calling him scum (Post 119), OMGUSing him (Post 225), and then completely letting the whole thing go once Wis let it go.

I also think it's off that he saw fit to chime in on the Cakez wagon and the "Square Wagon" (that never was) but has yet to say anything about the shadow wagon.

[mhsmith0]

You ever see a wolf successfully pull off a "oh crap I forgot how many players were in the game" play?

I guess the flip side is if kuroi realized that his # players estimate was off, he should have just revoted FA based on his thought progression. /ninjad: yep, that's the counter point

But it still seems reasonably likely to be a town-indicative moment, unless there's any evidence that this sort of fake play is within kuroi's wolf range.

[Gorkington]

his unvote is a showy post.
which isnt a big deal.
but how showy it is gives it potential to be fake.

[mhsmith0]

Hmm... Well, I guess I'll think on it. I agree that 75 looks off, and I'll look at the other points. OTOH, I just finished a game where kuroi's slot was the D1 lynch, so I'm a bit nervous about him just being lynchbaity. I'll try to compare this one to that one and see if there are any good parallels or not.

[Heartless]

You ever see a wolf successfully pull off a "oh crap I forgot how many players were in the game" play?

I guess the flip side is if kuroi realized that his # players estimate was off, he should have just revoted FA based on his thought progression. /ninjad: yep, that's the counter point

But it still seems reasonably likely to be a town-indicative moment, unless there's any evidence that this sort of fake play is within kuroi's wolf range.

What is "town-indicative" about it?

Just on the most basic level? I also think it's entirely plausible that he really

did

think he accidentally hammered FA and then made that post to save face.

[Heartless]

OTOH, I just finished a game where kuroi's slot was the D1 lynch, so I'm a bit nervous about him just being lynchbaity.

I really don't want to hear this anymore. From anyone.

I'm not unreasonable. If in the course of a wagon, Kuroi changes my mind and I start townreading him (entirely possible, it happens all the time), then that's what will happen.

If you have reasons that you can articulate for him being town, that's one thing. But saying "he's lynchbait so I'm

not

touching him" just cuts me off at the knees by not letting me apply any pressure and lets Kuroi coast for pretty much no reason.

[mhsmith0]

But in a 13p setup, the mafia would basically KNOW that there were >9 people, just by way of their role PM. The only way they wouldn't is if it was something like 10/2/1 (with an SK... and the SK would know that it's >9 people since when do you see an SK with 9 or less) or 9/2/2 mulitball where the role PM's didn't bother to make the multiball aspect clear.

So either kuroi is just INCREDIBLY sloppy mafia (who posted while forgetting that he had multiple teammates, presuming a relatively standard 10/3 setup), or there's info withheld or made unclear in his role PM... or it was a legitimately indicative moment, either because he was intentionally faking the derp, or because it actually was a true town derp moment.

And if Kuroi is a player who has never before tried this kind of fake derp moment as mafia, then it just seems likelier that he's just a townie who's being really sloppy in his postings, both in terms of remembering the setup and in terms of everything else (including the stuff about his read progressions). Like, I wouldn't want to bet the game on this, but I'm not especially inclined to want him dead anytime soon either.

[mhsmith0]

OTOH, I just finished a game where kuroi's slot was the D1 lynch, so I'm a bit nervous about him just being lynchbaity.

I really don't want to hear this anymore. From anyone.

I'm not unreasonable. If in the course of a wagon, Kuroi changes my mind and I start townreading him (entirely possible, it happens all the time), then that's what will happen.

If you have reasons that you can articulate for him being town, that's one thing. But saying "he's lynchbait so I'm

not

touching him" just cuts me off at the knees by not letting me apply any pressure and lets Kuroi coast for pretty much no reason.

That's an over-statement. "He's lynchbaity so I'm nervous about wagoning him" is a lot different than "he's lynchbaity so he has a golden ticket".

[Gorkington]

in application its kind of similar though.

i should stop being lazy and actually compile thoughts on him.

[Heartless]

WHY?

don't give me the "hez lynchbait"

the fact that an ic-blessed wagon failed to take off PROVES that's bullshit

whos scum if he flips town

whos town if he flips scum?

o/
I have a couple ideas.

[mhsmith0]

in application its kind of similar though.

i should stop being lazy and actually compile thoughts on him.

Well, no. A player who's lynchbaity has a higher threshold of what it takes to get lynched, but that doesn't mean that it's infinitely high. A player who's lynchbaity AND who has a plausibly town-indicative derp moment, though, has a (IMO) pretty high threshold. Like I said, I'll skim the game I had w kuroi to see what the comparison looks like. If I see substantial differences, I'll be more inclined to consider a vote. If it looks like just the same pattern, then it's a harder sell.

[Heartless]

But in a 13p setup, the mafia would basically KNOW that there were >9 people, just by way of their role PM. The only way they wouldn't is if it was something like 10/2/1 (with an SK... and the SK would know that it's >9 people since when do you see an SK with 9 or less) or 9/2/2 mulitball where the role PM's didn't bother to make the multiball aspect clear.

So either kuroi is just INCREDIBLY sloppy mafia (who posted while forgetting that he had multiple teammates, presuming a relatively standard 10/3 setup), or there's info withheld or made unclear in his role PM... or it was a legitimately indicative moment, either because he was intentionally faking the derp, or because it actually was a true town derp moment.

And if Kuroi is a player who has never before tried this kind of fake derp moment as mafia, then it just seems likelier that he's just a townie who's being really sloppy in his postings, both in terms of remembering the setup and in terms of everything else (including the stuff about his read progressions). Like, I wouldn't want to bet the game on this, but I'm not especially inclined to want him dead anytime soon either.

^I can now put a post to "why I'm townreading mhsmith"

[Heartless]

See what happens when you

engage

the read instead of just calling me bad?

Very good things!

[KuroiXHF]

Busy day today. I did a quick skim and know that I have a lot to respond to, and I'll do a full one tomorrow.

The one thing I'll respond to right now is that I didn't revote Frozen Angel because I know that even though my vote wouldn't lynch her, it would bring it dangerously close. I want pressure on her, but I'm not going to have her killed just yet.