Mini 1815: Game of Thrones S1E1 GAME OVER

[mhsmith0]

i mean.
i more get the sensation of feeling like im not interacting enough with scummates when i ignore them for too long.
i would think soft shitty interactions with scum are more likely to come from scum than complete outright avoidance.

p-edit: kuroi >.>
sometimes you push this ignorance thing like a step too far and i just feel bewildered by it.
anti is half of heartless..

Sure, that can be there too. But both you and wisdom interacted with those two a LOT. Like, wisdoms i could theoretically see as an sk... But their teammate? I just really struggle to see it. Too many interactions, and I don't think they seem fake. Ditto you with bbt/random. I'll re-read to make sure, but I'd just really be surprised to see either of you on the same team as bbt/random.

Which leaves Kuroi and dwlee, both of whom have much softer reasons to think theyre town. I'll probably re read Kurois "derp clear" bit; that's the main reason I'd been comfortable w him tbh. Dwlees hammer reaction seemed good as well, though if he was the last man standing, it's not crazy to think he'd just go for it and push hard to look town there.

[KuroiXHF]

Ugh, I completely forgot about Heartless. No, I knew about that. I just forgot. Sorry, I'm overworked and under- well, I won't go there.

[KuroiXHF]

And the only derp I've actually ever done this game was forgetting that Antihero was part of Heartless. Point to me something else I've done. I'm sick of being brushed off to the side. You and Wisdom have done this, and belittling me is really getting annoying.

[Gorkington]

one of the first things you did this game was forget that it was a mini theme and everyone said you were town for it?

[mhsmith0]

UNVOTE:

Wait. I didn't see how many votes were already on her.

I scared the fuck out of myself. I thought this was a micro game, because Radja does a lot of micro games.

If it was, I would have just killed Frozen Angel.

This was the derp clear moment discussed earlier in the game, I.e. Forgetting that it had >9 players. Which is super hard to actually forget as a wolf (barring multi ball I guess).

[mhsmith0]

You ever see a wolf successfully pull off a "oh crap I forgot how many players were in the game" play?

I guess the flip side is if kuroi realized that his # players estimate was off, he should have just revoted FA based on his thought progression. /ninjad: yep, that's the counter point

But it still seems reasonably likely to be a town-indicative moment, unless there's any evidence that this sort of fake play is within kuroi's wolf range.

Hmm... Well, I guess I'll think on it. I agree that 75 looks off, and I'll look at the other points. OTOH, I just finished a game where kuroi's slot was the D1 lynch, so I'm a bit nervous about him just being lynchbaity. I'll try to compare this one to that one and see if there are any good parallels or not.

But in a 13p setup, the mafia would basically KNOW that there were >9 people, just by way of their role PM. The only way they wouldn't is if it was something like 10/2/1 (with an SK... and the SK would know that it's >9 people since when do you see an SK with 9 or less) or 9/2/2 mulitball where the role PM's didn't bother to make the multiball aspect clear.

So either kuroi is just INCREDIBLY sloppy mafia (who posted while forgetting that he had multiple teammates, presuming a relatively standard 10/3 setup), or there's info withheld or made unclear in his role PM... or it was a legitimately indicative moment, either because he was intentionally faking the derp, or because it actually was a true town derp moment.

And if Kuroi is a player who has never before tried this kind of fake derp moment as mafia, then it just seems likelier that he's just a townie who's being really sloppy in his postings, both in terms of remembering the setup and in terms of everything else (including the stuff about his read progressions). Like, I wouldn't want to bet the game on this, but I'm not especially inclined to want him dead anytime soon either.

A bit more on that.

[Dwlee99]

if we think there is a serial killer in the game I want wisdom to have noose methinks

[mhsmith0]

VOTE: Kuroi

I kinda don't think bbt pushes a buddy to be competing w a square wagon there, not with a realistic chance that square claims a role and town pisses off onto Kuroi.

[mhsmith0]

Random pushes dwlee a bit too early on d3 for me to really think it's just a "I'm going down anyway" fake push on a buddy.

[mhsmith0]

Meanwhile...

Spoiler: day one gork

Basically just screwing around, nothing serious.

FA isn't scum, they couldn't handle the pressure on them atm

but this look really serious >.>

plus for just screwing around you defend others?

i want to eat cakez.
random can be townpile for now.

also i kind of doubt that ill be voting fa this cycle short of a PoE pile that pushes her into scum.
and given this playerlist i kind of find that unlikely.

...

Don't cannibalize me Glork, your tonal read is bad and you should feel bad
BBT's random vote is weaksauce

I meant your vote on Random BBT

I meant your vote on Random BBT

I know

I didn't like Random's Gork vote.

Why?

i personally think bbt's opening is pretty par for the course for him in terms of openings.

...

VOTE: bbt
I want this
read their iso, it is bad
They're scum

just seriously, lynch bbt please.

nope.

It's got about as much content as yours Dwlee

theirs is scum content tho

nah.

...

and what do you think about random?

and what do you think about random?

probably town

I find shadow post duplicates of what of already been discussed

That and he's asking obvious things that he doesn't need to ask. He's trying to look busy.

thats already more than from what I saw from his town game

as much as he is not lol hammering and lieing to get another town lynched he is good for now.

vote: shaddow

...

"hi my name is random and i, as scum, am gonna poke hiplop in the face on entry for reasoning that is kind of silly despite me having an okay set of reads anyway"

I think he'd do it

sure he could. i dont think its as likely though.
ive also liked other things hes done that im too lazy to pull up right now.

also I'm not sure I believe gorkypoo got a townread on rando that quick in that moment. I think upon reflection he;d come to that conclusion but not so fast.

I think he didn't expect my posts and was trying to slot a scumbuddy in that golden "3rd from town' null spot. Juicy juicy spot

pedit: OKAY FA is town

Scumteam = Gorky/Cakez/ rando

Probably not/probably/definitely not

thats just an embarassing set of conclusions. :/

p-edit: lol seriously hip. do you really want to dance with me this early?

in that golden "3rd from town' null spot. Juicy juicy spot

in that golden spot that comes underneath myself and the confirmed town.
yeah.
true.
:/

rando thoughts on Gorky's townread on you

Might be a little strong, I haven't played with him before so I can't judge too much. It doesn't seem scum driven.

rando thoughts on Gorky's townread on you

so youre just gonna stop engaging me to call me scum for a read that ive had for a long time? serious question hip, have you ever read me correctly even once earlygame?

...

why are you testing the waters? if you want to vote me, vote me. dont posture around and hide behind wisdom's approval.

i know who im voting when this shaddow wagon fizzles out.

i know who im voting when this shaddow wagon fizzles out.

Who?

probably should have waited to mention it. woops.

i dont think youll disapprove though.

this doesnt feel like a wagon that goes to lynch.

Then what are you doing on it?

meh.

vote: mhsmith

im probably not gonna be posting much during the day anymore.
got in trouble for being a bad employee

...

Dwlee's vote on Gork was opportunistic.

What does his vote being second have to do with it? Wisdom's push on Gork was bad, but looked town. Dwlee looks like he saw the opportunity to push a player who could be a threat and it's very easy to sit behind Wisdom whilst he does the pushing.

Dwlee showed no interest in voting Gork until Wisdom started pushing. It was an icky vote.

...

Not really. He did opportunistically push gork after he saw I may support it.

tone reads are bullshit unless you wanna argue you know his tone is not like that as scum

My tone reads tend to be pretty accurate. Most of the time it's because I pick up on slight things that make me think people are town without even realizing, which plays into my general opinion on them.

Anybody who knows you knows you tunnel. For scum, you're the easiest person to hide behind when you want to
force a mislynch. Dwlee jumped straight on that and I don't understand how Random isn't seeing it when he knows how you play.

It is possible that Dwlee genuinely developed a scumread at a similar time to Wisdom. That's all I'm saying.

I feel like you're defending him a little too much for my taste

VOTE: random

i kind of think wisdom might be scum :/

...

like, i seriously dont get the dwlee push on your end.
especially since the conclusion of our interaction really felt like you werent townreading me.
for you to go "dwlee is being opportunistic with how hes interacting with gork" just feels gross.
especially since that reasoning is really ham in the first place.
where bbt's reasoning felt like it was kind of grounded, it felt like you were just kind of trying to get off of pushing me because it was starting to look bad.

youre also acting like im the one whos building things up when youve repeatedly been establishing scummy things and then coming back to them later?
both your read on me and your read on random just really feel.. weirdly intentional.
"hey see this scummy thing you did that i pointed out before so i could bring it up now, yeah now ur toast bud".
it just feels like youre trying to expand your options.
i really really easily see this being your scumplay.
:/

...

Gork please talk about your town reads of bbt/random on day one and how you pretty consistently defended them or pushed alternatives when they were up for discussion. What convinced you they were town to the extent you'd go to bat for them so heavily?

[Dwlee99]

Bodyguard
Watcher
Innocentchild

2Shot Janitor
Tracker

Serial killer
?

[mhsmith0]

It still seems likelier that it's just 10/3. Sk would be a weird situation. 10/2/1 would mean a town limited use vig (given n2 no kill), and sk shooting beeboy instead of heartless I guess, and sk/Mafia double shooting the same spot n2. 9/3/1 would mean sk/Mafia double shot n3 as well, unless it's 9/3/1 with no vig, in which case this is the opposite of an easy game.

[Dwlee99]

9/2/1 no vig
There isnt a vigilante if there is an sk

[mhsmith0]

Like, it's obviously not a lock that we aren't in multi ball or playing against an sk, but the night actions are more consistent w 10/3 and a town vig, x-shot or odd night.

And if it's 10/3, my current best guess is gork. No single post smoking gun or the like, but a lot of day one actions where he was pushing away from wolves and into townies, and a bunch of different townies at that.

[mhsmith0]

9/2/1 no vig
There isnt a vigilante if there is an sk

ttwo people died last night tho, so two killers were out there.

[mhsmith0]

I also don't think the kills make very much sense w an sk. Why shoot the PoE?

[mhsmith0]

Also, night two, with the watcher very likely to be killed, why doesn't sk shoot just about anywhere else since goons are going there?

[Radja]

Day 4, VC 4

The White Walkers kill Ser Waymar Royce and Gared. Will manages to escape.

-

mhsmith0 (1)

-

Wisdom

Not Voting (4)

-

KuroiXHF, Gorkington, Dwlee99, mhsmith0

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch! Deadline is on August 22nd at 08:00 PM(GMT+1) or in (expired on 2016-08-22 20:00:00).

Mod Notes -
I edited the Dwlee's post so he doesn't self-hammer, because it was clearly unintentional.

[Gorkington]

Meanwhile...

Gork please talk about your town reads of bbt/random on day one and how you pretty consistently defended them or pushed alternatives when they were up for discussion. What convinced you they were town to the extent you'd go to bat for them so heavily?

there it is!

[honestly just quoting everything at me isnt productive because im not going to respond to all of it? if theres something specific in my play from d1 that you want me to address then, by all means point it out]
but essentially theres four things that i would say in response to this.
i) bbt's opening seemed close enough to what i'd seen from him before from him as town.
ie: he gets caught up on something that makes no sense to me and acts confident about it in spite of it not making sense to me.
his play was obviously sparse so there wasnt much to read, so i was comfortable thinking that he was on the level early on in the game.

when he started posting more, he was more productive than i'd seen him in the first paint mafia game. thats really mostly it as far as i can remember.

ii) you quoted part of the reason i liked random for town. he was poking at hiplop and i and i didnt think that scum-random does that.

iii) im an overly focused person. if i get caught up on something, i get caught up on something and tend not to focus elsewhere. there were louder and more distracting things on d1 and i overlooked random and bbt and underestimated them both as players.
i get that it sounds convenient, but you have to believe that the entirety of my play this game was dedicated to "i am literally going to nonstop defend my scummates and never call them scum until theyre literally guiltied"
and honestly, i can probably get thinking this is my scumgame.
however:

Like, it's obviously not a lock that we aren't in multi ball or playing against an sk, but the night actions are more consistent w 10/3 and a town vig, x-shot or odd night.

And if it's 10/3, my current best guess is gork. No single post smoking gun or the like, but a lot of day one actions where he was pushing away from wolves and into townies, and a bunch of different townies at that.

iv) i kind of hate the way you reached back to flip your reads here.
i could understand you engaging me on this, not believing what i say in response, but for you to start with "ay dwlee is scum!!!!!!!!!" and then get pushed into a corner about it, be told youre about to be lynched and then for you to come at me as the best option for scum?
i dont know man, thats pretty opportunistic.
:/

[Gorkington]

Spoiler:

UNVOTE:

Wait. I didn't see how many votes were already on her.

I scared the fuck out of myself. I thought this was a micro game, because Radja does a lot of micro games.

If it was, I would have just killed Frozen Angel.

This was the derp clear moment discussed earlier in the game, I.e. Forgetting that it had >9 players. Which is super hard to actually forget as a wolf (barring multi ball I guess).

You ever see a wolf successfully pull off a "oh crap I forgot how many players were in the game" play?

I guess the flip side is if kuroi realized that his # players estimate was off, he should have just revoted FA based on his thought progression. /ninjad: yep, that's the counter point

But it still seems reasonably likely to be a town-indicative moment, unless there's any evidence that this sort of fake play is within kuroi's wolf range.

Hmm... Well, I guess I'll think on it. I agree that 75 looks off, and I'll look at the other points. OTOH, I just finished a game where kuroi's slot was the D1 lynch, so I'm a bit nervous about him just being lynchbaity. I'll try to compare this one to that one and see if there are any good parallels or not.

But in a 13p setup, the mafia would basically KNOW that there were >9 people, just by way of their role PM. The only way they wouldn't is if it was something like 10/2/1 (with an SK... and the SK would know that it's >9 people since when do you see an SK with 9 or less) or 9/2/2 mulitball where the role PM's didn't bother to make the multiball aspect clear.

So either kuroi is just INCREDIBLY sloppy mafia (who posted while forgetting that he had multiple teammates, presuming a relatively standard 10/3 setup), or there's info withheld or made unclear in his role PM... or it was a legitimately indicative moment, either because he was intentionally faking the derp, or because it actually was a true town derp moment.

And if Kuroi is a player who has never before tried this kind of fake derp moment as mafia, then it just seems likelier that he's just a townie who's being really sloppy in his postings, both in terms of remembering the setup and in terms of everything else (including the stuff about his read progressions). Like, I wouldn't want to bet the game on this, but I'm not especially inclined to want him dead anytime soon either.

A bit more on that.

VOTE: Kuroi

I kinda don't think bbt pushes a buddy to be competing w a square wagon there, not with a realistic chance that square claims a role and town pisses off onto Kuroi.

Random pushes dwlee a bit too early on d3 for me to really think it's just a "I'm going down anyway" fake push on a buddy.

[i should really not let myself get worked up when i get pushed >.> there was development there so its at least not out of no where. i probably need some time to parse whether this was scummy or not because my kneejerk is clearly "RAHRAHRADIE" right now and i dont trust it q.q]

[Gorkington]

this is honestly so frustrating.
ive had one or two moments this whole game that ive felt good about a scumread.
one was wrong.
and now my gut is telling me that other was wrong too.

i dont even think my gut is a valid tool anymore.
:/

[Wisdom]

And the only derp I've actually ever done this game was forgetting that Antihero was part of Heartless. Point to me something else I've done. I'm sick of being brushed off to the side. You and Wisdom have done this, and belittling me is really getting annoying.

dude you derp all the time. Dont make me paranoid youre doing it on purpose now

[Wisdom]

UNVOTE:

goddamn now i think smith is town. All this effort cant be scum, can it?

[KuroiXHF]

And the only derp I've actually ever done this game was forgetting that Antihero was part of Heartless. Point to me something else I've done. I'm sick of being brushed off to the side. You and Wisdom have done this, and belittling me is really getting annoying.

dude you derp all the time. Dont make me paranoid youre doing it on purpose now

No, I don't. No, I'm not. Regardless, it's irrelevant when you brush my arguments aside because "Oh it's Kuroi." Treat me like any other player. I can take it.

And surely you guys know the flavor of this game. There's more likely to be a vig than a SK. I mean, I thought the scum in this game would be Cersei and Jaime, but if white walkers were scum, who would the SK be? You think it'd be Jaime?

[Dwlee99]

I know nothing about the flavor.