Open 651: Stack the Deck (Game Over)

[lilith2013]

Votecount 1.009

My first pagetop of the game! Sorry again for the delay in updating these VCs.

kyndy101 [1]

HighHopes

Vedith [2]

light_ganski, SoraAdvent

Hebee Inc [1]

Raskolnikov

light_ganski [1]

Lycanfire

SoraAdvent [3]

NJAC, Vedith, Sir Bastion

Lycanfire [1]

Hebee Inc

NJAC [1]

superbowl9

Not Voting [2]

shaddowez, kyndy101

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Deadline: (expired on 2016-08-22 01:30:00)

pagetop count: Vedith 3 | NJAC 2 | light_ganski 2 | Lilith 1 | HighHopes 1 | shaddowez 1 | kyndy101 1

[NJAC]

Damn man! If you're truly the goon cop why do you think it's good play to claim this early? WTF?

Because it's a weak role.
It also lets people actually scum hunt and stop trying to mis lynch Kyndy or myself.

I'm also confident in my scum reads to give out the information!

It might be a weak role, but in no way, shape or form should you underestimate the effectiveness of a PR.
*Waggles finger*

[NJAC]

I mean, you could have at least waited for D1 to go further and your wagon to gain even more traction. In fact you shouldn't claim without being at L-1 but w/e.

I wanted to see superbowl's response to my 218, for example, and see more reactions from the other players WRT your wagon, but your early claim denied us to see how it developed.

[NJAC]

Plus, your presence in the later game could have been decisive, but you just decided to make things easier for scum. I really don't get it but w/e.

[NJAC]

@superbowl:

In case you didn't note it, 218 and 221 were addressed at you. Please answer those questions.

[NJAC]

Can we please stop doing this "x is town" "This post is scum" etc. as just naked statements
It really doesn't help the game or anyone in it if you're not gonna actually give the reasoning behind a certain conclusion.
It doesn't have to be long sora style shit but just a few words would be helpful.

This post is scum.

Agreed, though I sense a bit of newbness. For some reason SB thinks every single read has to be accompanied with a detailed explanation, when it's obvious that this early in the game reads are based on little evidence.

Also, giving out constant and completely explained and detailed reads can even help scum to decide who to kill and how to adapt their own faked reads.

[NJAC]

I really agree with Bastion's 262. Pretty good post which actually reflect my thoughts on the players mentioned and the way they're playing.

[shaddowez]

Sorry for disappearing, work kicked my butt the last couple days. Promising a catch up shortly!

[NJAC]

Votecount 1.007

I'm in Disney for a few days so apologies for the delays in VCs.

kyndy101 [2]

Sir Bastion, HighHopes

Vedith [4]

kyndy101, light_ganski, SoraAdvent

Hebee Inc [1]

Raskolnikov

light_ganski [1]

Lycanfire

SoraAdvent [2]

NJAC, Vedith

Lycanfire [1]

Hebee Inc

NJAC [1]

superbowl9

Not Voting [1]

shaddowez

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Deadline: (expired on 2016-08-22 01:30:00)

pagetop count: Vedith 2 | light_ganski 2 | HighHopes 1 | NJAC 1 | shaddowez 1 | kyndy101 1

Votecount 1.008

Sending a light poke (unofficial prod) to Raskolnikov, who is VLA.

kyndy101 [2]

Sir Bastion, HighHopes

Vedith [4]

kyndy101, light_ganski, SoraAdvent

Hebee Inc [1]

Raskolnikov

light_ganski [1]

Lycanfire

SoraAdvent [2]

NJAC, Vedith

Lycanfire [1]

Hebee Inc

NJAC [1]

superbowl9

Not Voting [1]

shaddowez

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Deadline: (expired on 2016-08-22 01:30:00)

pagetop count: Vedith 3 | light_ganski 2 | HighHopes 1 | NJAC 1 | shaddowez 1 | kyndy101 1

Can we please stop doing this "x is town" "This post is scum" etc. as just naked statements
It really doesn't help the game or anyone in it if you're not gonna actually give the reasoning behind a certain conclusion.
It doesn't have to be long sora style shit but just a few words would be helpful.

This post is scum.

lycan is leaning town, btw.

[superbowl9]

What's up with those quotes?

[NJAC]

Those quotes weren't supposed to be there. Sorry.

@Mod

: Those votecounts show 4 votes on Vedith, but they're actually 3.

[NJAC]

@superbowl: stop ignoring my questions.

[superbowl9]

im writing a post rn just saw this in the other window and had to comment

[kyndy101]

Those quotes weren't supposed to be there. Sorry.

@Mod

: Those votecounts show 4 votes on Vedith, but they're actually 3.

Actually, there are 2 on Vedith now

[SoraAdvent]

UNVOTE: Vedith. I'm going to have to swallow my pride and admit that I was completely and totally off on everything in this game so far. My focus over the next couple of days is to just go back and reread the game and focus on the Vedith/NJAC interaction in some detail. At this point I'm not even sure of any of my reads anymore. Before this, I'd like to address a few of the points made against me.

~~~~

Re: Vedith

I want to know your meta before this.

As for why I said it was Vedith being Vedith, I think 95's a perfect example of the type of posts you make.

Scum found.
You want to know my meta, but you imply that you know it already from the type of posts I make.
This could be Vedith not being Vedith, but you have already decided that this is Vedith being Vedith while asking for meta on me.
And you can't say that this is wrong, because you are responding to a comment about me with saying that it's my usual play, just to ignore it (TYhis is what I get from, Vedith being Vedith).

Your reads are basically mirror with High Hopes (Who I haven't decided yet if I think scum or not)

Why did I keep my vote on Kyndy? I wanted to see what scum would use this to their advantage. In 156 he defends me voting Kyndy, in 220 he uses it for an excuse to push me as scum, but in a subtle way.

1) Regarding the first point: I think you're completely misunderstanding what I'm saying at all. Why would I bother asking about meta not once, but so many times, if I already knew how you played? It'd be a useless waste of time.

2) My statement on the types of post you make are based on your past behaviour. I posted this in 156 as well, which I think sums up my thoughts about how you've posted, and is what I'm referring to when I refer to your posts as such.

To sum, his posts are non-comittal and reactionary, which to me are quite clear scumtells.

3) I presume that for your third and fourth point you're asking me about me about this post I made here.

4) For your next point, I posted my reads before High Hopes did and have modified them only very slightly.

5) How do I defend your vote on Kyndy in any way? I said that you're arguing against me on kyndy back in 156, and that's good.

After he goes off on how I'm wrong on kyndy (which is fair enough, argument is always good),

Back here, my vote was on kyndy and yours was on her as well. I don't defend you voting kyndy at all, and even say this in the same post.

His vote on you is not due to legit suspicion, he really hasn't formed a case on anyone yet

. But you're already getting defensive based on an

RVS vote.

I get that you may not have noticed it was an RVS vote, but it really is a little bit too defensive for my liking.

I guess you could interpret this as being supportive of your vote, but my intent was to say your vote was an RVS one and not based in fact, and Kyndy's overreaction to that RVS vote is a little worrying. I don't think I flip on it at all in my later post (220): I mention your vote is an RVS vote twice, and in both cases say that your vote is weak.

~~~~

Re: Sir Bastion

1) Yeah, apologies for my formatting issues. I can't find any way to make it easier to read, apologies. As for posting my train of thought, I have a serious problem with not being able to control what I actually say and get across.

2) I don't think I'm sitting on the kyndy wagon at all. I've been pushing for Vedith over the last couple of posts I've made, with NJAC as a close second. I'm keeping an eye on kyndy without being too commital as I'm watching for how her actions develop over the course of the next few posts. I'm unsure on her recent posts, and I don't want to force a read that I'm not sure on, and even more so now considering what happened when I believed Vedith was right.

3) I think reads are useful as a starting point and can be very helpful in kickstarting the game past RVS mode. I felt the game was already moving past RVS, but needed a little bit of a push to move things along. Knowing what reads people have is actually immensely helpful to see who they're potentially buddying with (in terms of who they're being soft on), but the act of providing reads in themselves can be analysed. From things like what tells they pick up on, to their structure you can really tell a lot about who a person is based on reads. Also they provide a really good discussion over whether a person deserves a town/scum read, and probably most importantly they force you to take a look at the game overall.

~~~~

As of right now doing some initial reading I'd say my initial read on NJAC was definitely wrong, but as I mentioned I'll get back to that later.

[NJAC]

Ok. I'll be V/LA for the next three days. Would like to see more input from the players who have barely posted.

[superbowl9]

How does the wagons heating up and that post correlate?

I looked at the VC at the time of that post, saw you and vedith with equal wagons, and thought to myself, "well both of these wagons look like they're going somewhere, and I want to lynch vedith more than I want to lynch kyndy. Meanwhile the NJAC wagon doesn't look like its going anywhere so time to vote vedith".

superbowl/177 post analysis is good but the problem is that he's only doing it because his reads are wrong, not sure how much i like it.

What? Looking at 177 I only reinforce my previous reads.

@superbowl:

In case you didn't note it, 218 and 221 were addressed at you. Please answer those questions.

Sry must have forgot about em

Considering that the wagons are heating up and this post
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Vedith

But that post is townie. What exactly is wrong with that post?

Has a very defensive tone. Just added onto the whole Vedith being defensive/not willing to contribute that much feel.

I'll join Vedith's wagon if it comes to that point where I'm obviously not going to get one on you/

the vedith wagon seems like its going to be the actual D1 lynch

Y'know, I was wondering, why are you limiting our lynch options this early? You seem to be fine with lynching Vedith, but I still don't see why we should lynch him. I also think we're still in the early D1 and some players have not engaged in the game yet, so why do you think no other wagon will gain traction?

I can't really provide you with any solid evidence on this one, it's more of just that's how I felt the game was going at that moment. There were a lot of people scumreading either vedith or kyndy, and 3 votes on each wagon, at that time, imo, felt like that would mean each wagon was going somewhere. That doesn't mean I didn't or don't think new wagons could form (im hoping one forms on u rn) or things could change, just how I felt at that moment.

Can we please stop doing this "x is town" "This post is scum" etc. as just naked statements
It really doesn't help the game or anyone in it if you're not gonna actually give the reasoning behind a certain conclusion.
It doesn't have to be long sora style shit but just a few words would be helpful.

This post is scum.

Agreed, though I sense a bit of newbness. For some reason SB thinks every single read has to be accompanied with a detailed explanation, when it's obvious that this early in the game reads are based on little evidence.

Also, giving out constant and completely explained and detailed reads can even help scum to decide who to kill and how to adapt their own faked reads.

Call me a newb if you like (this is my 6th game) but no I do not think that every read needs a detailed explanation. Did you read the third line of my post? If you don't have evidence for a read, well then say that. Gut reads are absolutely fine. What I don't find fine is just making an unjustified statements. Sure if you have some huge rope a dope conspiracy and you need to naked vote or whatever to complete your master plan, that's fine. It's just that it's not exactly the best habit to get into if you want people to actually agree with you or respect your statements at all. Did anyone base their play or reads off Vedith's "wxyz are town" lists? What I'm saying is stuff like that is a lot less helpful than putting down your reasoning, because seeing your reasoning can change minds, whereas naked statements can't.

superbowl/239 i liked how he trying to lead town up until he flipped his vote for no damn reason. if your top scumread claims goon cop, you grill your top scumread until you're sure they're goon cop. either superbowl is scared scum or this is S+Traitor interaction.

I can see why Vedith would claim after thinking about it from his perspective for a little. Doesn't really matter if I believe him tho, lynching a claimed
un-cc'd pr doesn't make sense.

That was my reasoning at the time.

However after re-reading vedith's post/looking into the setup more (not to play the noob card but haven't played this setup before/haven't really played too many setups) the true semi-useless of the gooncop has really hit me. Really claiming goon cop is not all that different from claiming doc in a lot of other setups in that it's a very dubious claim that the mafia could easily use (except this one's actually worse because there's no incentive for a scum nk unless they have goons left). So basically, where I went wrong in my post was that whether or not I believe him

does

make a difference.

So, do I believe him?
Find out on the next episode of dual-post z

[superbowl9]

How does the wagons heating up and that post correlate?

I looked at the VC at the time of that post, saw you and vedith with equal wagons, and thought to myself, "well both of these wagons look like they're going somewhere, and I want to lynch vedith more than I want to lynch kyndy. Meanwhile the NJAC wagon doesn't look like its going anywhere so time to vote vedith".

superbowl/177 post analysis is good but the problem is that he's only doing it because his reads are wrong, not sure how much i like it.

What? Looking at 177 I only reinforce my previous reads.

@superbowl:

In case you didn't note it, 218 and 221 were addressed at you. Please answer those questions.

Sry must have forgot about em

Considering that the wagons are heating up and this post
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Vedith

But that post is townie. What exactly is wrong with that post?

Has a very defensive tone. Just added onto the whole Vedith being defensive/not willing to contribute that much feel.

I'll join Vedith's wagon if it comes to that point where I'm obviously not going to get one on you/

the vedith wagon seems like its going to be the actual D1 lynch

Y'know, I was wondering, why are you limiting our lynch options this early? You seem to be fine with lynching Vedith, but I still don't see why we should lynch him. I also think we're still in the early D1 and some players have not engaged in the game yet, so why do you think no other wagon will gain traction?

I can't really provide you with any solid evidence on this one, it's more of just that's how I felt the game was going at that moment. There were a lot of people scumreading either vedith or kyndy, and 3 votes on each wagon, at that time, imo, felt like that would mean each wagon was going somewhere. That doesn't mean I didn't or don't think new wagons could form (im hoping one forms on u rn) or things could change, just how I felt at that moment.

Can we please stop doing this "x is town" "This post is scum" etc. as just naked statements
It really doesn't help the game or anyone in it if you're not gonna actually give the reasoning behind a certain conclusion.
It doesn't have to be long sora style shit but just a few words would be helpful.

This post is scum.

Agreed, though I sense a bit of newbness. For some reason SB thinks every single read has to be accompanied with a detailed explanation, when it's obvious that this early in the game reads are based on little evidence.

Also, giving out constant and completely explained and detailed reads can even help scum to decide who to kill and how to adapt their own faked reads.

Call me a newb if you like (this is my 6th game) but no I do not think that every read needs a detailed explanation. Did you read the third line of my post? If you don't have evidence for a read, well then say that. Gut reads are absolutely fine. What I don't find fine is just making an unjustified statements. Sure if you have some huge rope a dope conspiracy and you need to naked vote or whatever to complete your master plan, that's fine. It's just that it's not exactly the best habit to get into if you want people to actually agree with you or respect your statements at all. Did anyone base their play or reads off Vedith's "wxyz are town" lists? What I'm saying is stuff like that is a lot less helpful than putting down your reasoning, because seeing your reasoning can change minds, whereas naked statements can't.

superbowl/239 i liked how he trying to lead town up until he flipped his vote for no damn reason. if your top scumread claims goon cop, you grill your top scumread until you're sure they're goon cop. either superbowl is scared scum or this is S+Traitor interaction.

I can see why Vedith would claim after thinking about it from his perspective for a little. Doesn't really matter if I believe him tho, lynching a claimed
un-cc'd pr doesn't make sense.

That was my reasoning at the time.

However after re-reading vedith's post/looking into the setup more (not to play the noob card but haven't played this setup before/haven't really played too many setups) the true semi-useless of the gooncop has really hit me. Really claiming goon cop is not all that different from claiming doc in a lot of other setups in that it's a very dubious claim that the mafia could easily use (except this one's actually worse because there's no incentive for a scum nk unless they have goons left). So basically, where I went wrong in my post was that whether or not I believe him

does

make a difference.

So, do I believe him?
Find out on the next episode of dual-post z

[superbowl9]

There's three parts of me that are conflicted over this claim.

1. My read

My read from everything other than the claim post says scum. As I mentioned in this post in response to NJAC the posts leading up to the claim post (209, 212, 216) all give me a "nervous scum who feels he's about to be lynched" type of feel. Add my scumread from earlier, and my read says it's a fakeclaim from scum, and pretty surely as well.

2. My gut/222

This can basically be summed up as empathy. I literally asked myself the question, "if were Vedith, would I have claimed here?" (assuming Vedith is goon cop). Everything about 222 hits me with a gut town feeling when I look at it from this perspective.

From the more relaxed tone
(claiming would relieve lots of pressure if he's town but would still be stressful if he's scum)
to the placement of the claim
(if i were scum vedith i'd put this claim front and center at the very start of my post, also why would I respond to people if I'm claiming? "yeah you suspect me but I just claimed this role so you have to unvote me" type of thing).
To even explaining the setup
(and how doing that makes his claim less likely to be believed by people who weren't thinking about the setup stuff like me).
Everything about this claim and post gives me the gut reaction of believing Vedith.

3. The theory

The final thing I've done is remove the names from this situation and look at it purely from a theory point of view. Would this claim be beneficial from a scum standpoint? (Vedith's already done this a little)

From the scum side, there's a couple scenarios. If the scum picked nothing, then, as Vedith said in 234, he could be betting that the other role is not a goon cop (20% chance there is a goon cop) and using this as a gambit. This gambit is even riskier though, because if a goon flips at any point we will instantly question why Vedith was not nk'd, putting him back in the hotseat.
I don't think this is likely though, because wayyy back in the start of the game (24), Vedith expressed his opinion that scum choosing nothing was unheard of to him.

That leads me to the next option, which is scum picking buffs. Firstly, if they don't recruit and buff themselves (keep in mind 24), then there's no risk of a goon flip, so the "why didn't they nk you" argument leaves. Every other scenario is pretty much the same as if they picked no buffs but with increased chances for goon cops to cc.

One last thing to note is the scum prs. Obviously scum want to keep the prs, so they may be less likely to gambit and take a risk that early.
~~
So the theory says that it is certainly possible Vedith could have done this as scum, but it would be a gambit.
My gut says believe the claim.
My read says scum.

I'm honestly way too conflicted to call it one way or another. I need more info, whether that be flips or more of Vedith posting.
Lycan's post, although it did change my thought process, didn't change my vote. I still think we should lynch NJAC more than Vedith, and with the amount of people who are scumreading him/don't like his play in this game I find it strange that I'm the only one who's voted him.
This post was really really long so im gonna split it in two for (hopefully) easier reading .

[superbowl9]

Well that didn't turn out so well. Ignore 291 ig

[Vedith]

And the award for most pointless analysis of, "he could be or could not be scum" goes to...
Superbowl!!!

Step on up buddy!

[superbowl9]

Thank you, thank you!
I'd like to thank the academy and lycan, my biggest influence!

[NJAC]

[shaddowez]

Alright everyone, somewhat of a catchup, but lame for what it is:

Heebee

- There's nothing here. 191 is an empty reads list, which has {unreadable} and {null} as separate groups. 193 uses basically the same defense of "It feels towny/scummy to me". There's also a strange disconnect of 190 being hebi and saying he'll read up, and then all the other posts being bee...and then nothing. Nullscum based on the little content there is so far.

HighHopes

- I like the progressing reads list that I can only guess are as they're reading? An "Up to Page" or something similar, with some more info, would be great. The fact there's no content makes it tough to get a read, but I do like 254 and 255. Want to see more from them, but nulltown here.

kyndy

- I was reading her as pretty strong scum early in the game. The unvote on SuperBowl in RVS (26) feels unnatural, and the conversation regarding NJAC voting me/not seeing me as IC just doesn't sit right. Her "big case" on Vedith is weak as anything, and was largely based on posts made after she said she had a case. Her catchup in 263 is scattered and still seems to be a lot of empty questions. Wall posts that make it look like she's trying to do something, without actually providing much in the way of solid reasoning or scumhunting. Still one of my strongest scumreads.

light_ganski

- Another scumread. Most of his posts seem opportunistic, with little reasoning provided. The only post that appears to have any effort is 202, and while I realize effort =/= alignment, I still don't like it. Most of his reads seem to be fencesitting at best - lycan

could be

scum; NJAC is scum because he likes superbowl's case; Vedith is partly scum because he likes kyndy's posts (and kyndy is town because her reads match his on Vedith). 232 also lines up Vedith for a mislynch if Vedith is indeed town.

lycanfire

- More nullscum (I have way too many scumleans this game). His early posts are all fluff, and 266 is a useless wall. 269 rubs me the wrong way, even if it was a "joke" post.

NJAC

- I actually like his questions. He seems to be looking for motivations, which is a townie thing to do. He also seems to have thoughts behind most of what he's saying, which is often difficult for scum to produce.

Raskolnikov

- Nothing to say, included for completeness sake. Have fun coming back from V/LA to this...

Bastion

- Bastion is null. I like the posts he does have, but he's only interacting with a couple of people. His case against Sora is decent, but it almost reads like a playstyle read than anything they've actually done. I don't think Bastion is groupscum, but could possibly see him as traitor.

Sora

- Townlean. Their posts don't seem to come from an informed POV. I also like the progression of their reads.

superbowl

- My strongest town read. Engaging, answering questions, trying to find motivations. Pretty much everything town should be doing. If anyone that's scum reading superbowl could explain why, I'd appreciate it.

Vedith

- Ah, Vedith. Not quite sure where to start. His joking nature definitely came off as scummish early on, but I'm fairly certain that he's been mislynched in several games I've been in with him because of it. I'm not quite sure I understand the claim, but it's a pretty risky gambit this early on if he's scum. Townread for now, partly on PoE, and partly on the claim.

I think for now this is where I want my vote, though.
VOTE: light_ganski

[shaddowez]

@shadow: Why did you make a question about RVS specifically to Sora instead of asking to others? Why did you say you wanted to vote him? Also, what stopped you from voting him, given that a single vote was harmless at that point?

Not sure I ever answered this, so I will here - Sora was the second person to post after I did my self-vote in RVS. It was unusual for not just one but two people to completely ignore a self-vote, especially with me having been mod-confirmed town. It's possible that they both missed the IC post as well, but then it makes even less sense for them to not comment on the self-vote. While my vote didn't matter, since it's know that I'm town what does it matter that I did or didn't vote?