Micro 639: Noughts and Crosses Blitz [Game Over]

[Ümläüt]

Well, let me post based on the table as it stands and then I'll update when you do.

Guidelines:

• I want to maximize the subset of {me, Lion, Lane, Wing} that stays alive.
  
• It's actually slightly better if I die than one of the others since it seems they're more townread than I am.
  
• I am definitely not interested in a plan where both Alpaca and Joe stay alive, but if I have to pick one I'd rather keep Joe alive since he's at least posting more, meaning he'll be easier to read over time.

Looking at the options Wingback presented in 178, this means my preferred choice is Dunnstral-1 leaving Lane, Lion, Luna, and myself. I can live with Dunnstral-3 as well. If we do lynch Luna I'm planning to advocate for Luna-2.

I'm in an awkward position advocating these plans since all of them leave me alive. I looked through to come up with a plan to advocate for if you really do want to kill me, but I can't find one that kills at least one of Alpaca or Joe as well.

VOTE: Dunnstral

I know it's a bit late to change wagons. I will definitely be around within an hour of deadline if I need to change back for the sake of a lynch.

[lane0168]

You thought I sheeped your lynch the middle joke and made up a bunch of reasons because I wanted to go with the flow? Your joke post wasn't A "flow" to lynching towards the middle. If there was flow towards lynching the middle, I dug the ditch for the flow. Then i deemed it unnecessary when I figured out you can get essentially the same people dead without lynching the middle, even with scum having more options if we lynch corner. What would be the middle ground you'd have liked to see? Suggesting lynch the sides?

Pedit. It's more important to not have 2 scum in the final 4 because if that happens we've already lost. I originally worked it out to figure out final 3, but you did the more important to find the final 4

[lane0168]

VOTE: dunn

[Wingback]

Correcting what was wrong with the previous tables:

D1 Lynch	D2-N2-D3 deaths	N3 kill	Alive
Dunnstral	Wingback AlpacaAlpaca Javajoe	Lane/ GuiltyLion/ Umlaut/ Luna Fox	(Scum's choice)
Dunnstral	Luna Fox Umlaut GuiltyLion	Lane/ Alapaca/ Javajoe/ Wingback	(Scum's choice)
Dunnstral	AlpacaAlpaca Wingback Luna Fox	Umlaut	Lane GuiltyLion Javajoe
Dunnstral	Umlaut Luna Fox Wingback	Alpaca	Lane GuiltyLion Javajoe

D1 Lynch	D2-N2-D3 deaths	N3 Kill	Alive
Luna Fox	Dunnstral Umlaut Guilty Lion	Wingback/ Alpaca/ Javajoe/ Lane	(Scum's choice)
Luna Fox	Lane Javajoe Alpaca	Wingback/ GuiltyLion/ Umlaut/ Dunnstral	(Scum's choice)
Luna Fox	Umlaut Dunnstral Lane	Javajoe	Wingback GuiltyLion Alpaca
Luna Fox	Javajoe Lane Dunnstral	Umlaut	Wingback GuiltyLion Alpaca

Alright, figured it out. We force the N3 scum kill if we lynch an edge on D2 rather than a corner. So, in half the scenarios, they kill who they want. In the other half, it's forced.

I don't know which is better. The info from nightkills or just having a concensus townread alive.

Going to catch up on the last few pages before voting.

[Wingback]

Javajoe24

sat on the fence in the center-corner wars, inexplicably unvoted because "RVS is over," pushed a policy lynch on replacement-bait,

Didn't you do the same thing by putting your vote on my predecessor because he was far away from you?

[lane0168]

If Javajoe and alpaca are scum, they're not forced to kill themselves. They kill town and win. Same with umlaut and alpaca, Java and alpaca

[Wingback]

Oh yeah, that's right. Forgot about that. Ignore the "correction." The original table is accurate.

[Wingback]

Okay, so from the original (accurate) table in Post 178, I think options one and three for Dunnstral are our best bet. I explained why on option one. For option 3, that self-vote by Luna makes me question what she's smoking and leaving her alive in LYLO is a risk. I want to flip Dunnstral and then work out associatives from there to see which way to go. Think he's going to flip scum based on how survivalistic his reads are and how he's changing them around to make sure he doesn't have to advocate for his lynch.

VOTE: Dunnstral

Luna Fox (L-3) Dunnstral, Luna Fox
Dunnstral (L-1) Ümläüt, McMenno, lane0168, Wingback
Not Voting (4): GuiltyLion, AlpacaAlpaca, Javajoe24,

[Ümläüt]

Javajoe24

sat on the fence in the center-corner wars, inexplicably unvoted because "RVS is over," pushed a policy lynch on replacement-bait,

Didn't you do the same thing by putting your vote on my predecessor because he was far away from you?

Wait, which of those things did I do?

• Did I sit on the fence in the center-corner wars?
  
• Did I unvote because RVS was over?
  
• Did I push a policy lynch on replacement-bait?

Maybe you mean the last one, but I didn't vote him for being lurky, I vote him because he was far from me and I didn't have any reads strong enough to outweigh "I know I'm town" as a reason yet.

[Wingback]

Okay. That rubbed me the wrong way but I suppose I could see that.

On another note, if one corner is lynched, the other corner gets to LYLO. If somebody else was opposite Luna Fox, I'd suspect that the self-vote was a way to get her partner into LYLO, even better if they're widely townread. But I'm actually town which makes me think I'm being cunningly set up. Another reason I'm quite happy with neither me or Luna making it to LYLO.

[Ümläüt]

For purposes of this post let's assume at least one scum dies before N3, since otherwise we've lost anyway.

I'm ambivalent between Dunnstral-1 and Dunnstral-3.

The latter leaves Lane, Lion, and Joe in lylo, so unless something dramatic changes this means Joe gets lynched and the town wins iff he's scum. I think he is so I'm pretty comfortable with this, but the lack of choice involved means we pretty much have to decide on D2 once and for all.

The former probably leaves me, Luna, and either Lane or Lion. I don't really like letting scum make that decision, and I don't think the slight bit of NKA possibility we get from letting scum choose the kill will be all that helpful. But of course maybe we've already won since my top scumreads are dead.

Either way Dunn is a good lynch today though, so I'm going to stick with that.

[Ümläüt]

Wait, Dunnstral-4 has the same final 3 as Dunnstral-3.

Okay, yeah, that makes my preferred strategy obvious. Lynch Dunn first, then anyone but Luna.

Or, if we lynch Luna today, then tomorrow lynch me or Joe.

[Luna Fox]

The main reason is because if im going to be lynched down the line anyway, i rather be lynched now so i dont have to bother following this game anymore as i dont have time for it.

She said early on that she's going to focus on Mafia over TTT, but hasn't actually done a lot in terms of Mafia either.

That i did, but i dont scumhunt like normal people do.

[GuiltyLion]

okay, intent to hammer on Dunnstral since his lynch leads to Alpaca death quicker

will do this after I grab lunch

[Luna Fox]

I thought you didnt want me in the final group of 4?

[lane0168]

You won't be

[lane0168]

Well, maybe you will be. I guess we'll see

[lane0168]

Shouldn't be. Alpaca day 2 lynch, you're day 3. I believe is the way we'll go

[Luna Fox]

Ah if im not lynched i guess i'll just rep out, i literally have no time right now i just wanted to speed things up ^^;;

[lane0168]

Ok. Can we get a hammer. 5 hours and no reason to take anymore time.

[Javajoe24]

I am ok with this.

VOTE: Dunn

[lane0168]

Nice scum claim with the quick hammer being "ok with this"

[McMenno]

rest in pieces

[Javajoe24]

Really? With less than 5 hours remaining and a intent already given? Whatever man.

[Ümläüt]

I'm scumreading Joe as much as anyone, Lane, but you literally just said "Someone hammer this" and then called him out for doing it.