Newbie 1726 (Game Over)

[innocentvillager]

We should NL instead of make a hasty decision. Clearly we haven't come to a consensus yet.

[innocentvillager]

VOTE: no lynch

[Zorblag]

And the no lynch here makes a perfect day for scum. They get to see what everyone had to say before making the right choice for a night kill, right on down to the claimed power role (for which they probably know if it's still an issue.) That's exactly what we don't want for a no lynch. We also don't want to rush a decision. So I'm going to call for actual participation for the next two days and then, if needed a no lynch at deadline. Let's find scum and actually lynch them today rather than ceding initiative.

@innocentvillager, why is Foxbird scum? Have you looked at RachMarie's play today?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[RachMarie]

VOTE: Inno

[Zorblag]

@RachMarie, why? Give some reasons here.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[RachMarie]

Inno was unnecessary stalling with his reasoning on why he is so sure Foe is town, which turned out to be just a bad reasoning, and I don't see how misguiding like that helps town. It was obviosuly not stopping Foe from getting lynched, which he implied it would. Therefore, there was literally no need for him to be waiting to out that reasoning if he's town.
He is obviously not getting lynched today. A no lynch is probably not in our best interests. From Rach and foe, Rach seems scummier. If Rach gets lynched today and she flips scum they yeah, Inno-Rach team is probably not happening. More I'm reading Rach's posts though, more scummy they seem. She seems to be avoiding a hell of a lot stuff, and acknowledging all those that I probably wouldn't mind much not being acknowledged.

And actually, probably will get into this a little more:

I hate this post. In this post you lay out a very clear case for IV being scum and you show pretty decent conviction in believing that he is scum. You then immediately lay that conviction aside (which I feel is unnatural) to say that he is never getting lynched today; do you say that simply because you made a case once and then you didn't post again to push it? Why haven't you even tried to address or figure out why people are reading him as town? You then move from IV as your top suspect in this post to Rach as your top suspect and pretty freely acknowledge that they probably aren't scum together; what on earth is this about? If you were town, I don't think you'd be so happy to drop your IV read and move to Rach; it looks like you're taking advantage of the Rach wagon because it's there and will resume pushing your IV case once Rach flips town.

It also really bothers me that you didn't even acknowledge my Foe case; you asked for it, I know you saw it since this forum doesn't let you post without looking at the posts above you, but you didn't even see it worthy of a "hey Nacho I see your case I'll respond to it later"?

I actually agree with this like word for word

VOTE: ecane

Serious fos this time.

Rach is town, I'll sheep Nacho. Nacho underscored my one doubt about Rach too that she was town, and I like his case for town!Rach.

Votes ecane

@IV - Who was your prefered lynch option at the end of D2. You've walked back your ecane suspicion, you townread Rach at the end of the day, and you were obviously against the foe lynch. Zorblag? Me? Foxbird?

This is a good question, and tbh, I didn't know. I liked Nacho's case for town-Rach, so me being all for a Rach lynch was suddenly dissolved.

I never suspected ecane, ever. Lol.

I would've been fine with any of you/Zorb/Foxbird, but I didn't know who or why so I didn't push. Also, an NL was not a bad option at that point, since we would just get the ML later, so I didn't really see any priority in pushing a lynch. Ecane was almost certainly going to die anyway.

I could've tried to stop the foe lynch, but honestly there was not much else I could've said. I said my reasoning why, most of you thought it was a "poor angleshooty reason", so there's not much else I can do to stall such a lynch.

Says he never suspected ecane?

Then goes on to say well you all were gonna lynch foe anyway? Feels like hes trying to have it both ways.

[Zorblag]

@RachMarie, The ecane vote is all gambit and consistent with town play (unless you're worried about things I've already talked about.) He's trying to make the ecane lynch less likely despite the fact that she's essentially claimed PR in case scum haven't seen it.

What do you think he should have done there?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@RachMarie, why do you think Jaack is more likely town than Foxbird?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[RachMarie]

it feels like a pattern not just ecane but foe

basically oh yeah they are town I always was reading them as town

feels scummy

[RachMarie]

in looking at the interactions between inno and fox it I saw some by play and voting patterns that looked like they could be scummy,

Early on fox votes for inno's pred, then when inno comes on and posts, then she backs away from the read,

Now we have inno voting for her and suddenly when reminded how short our deadline is, he flips back to NL. Even though he knows Nacho, and you both indicated you would not be happy with a NL, and I have stated I would support Nacho if he wants to lynch.

That feels like light bus then hop off.

[Zorblag]

@RachMarie, if innocentvillager is town then his stance towards ecane is entirely consistent and reasonable all game long (misdirecting scum.) What is the pattern regarding foedufafa? He was right that they were town and stuck with it. Explain please!

Why are you reading Jaack as town?

And what do you mean by feels scummy?

Is there a reason to think that Foxbird wouldn't have found innocentvillager's posts town? Do you think scum are likely to back off a replacement for a partner?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Why isn't innocnetvillager's return to the no lynch preference consistent with his play earlier where he was pushing it. Is he wrong in his reasoning for any reason?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@RachMarie, seriously though, talk to me about Jaack and why you have a town read.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[RachMarie]

yeah because one of the common reasons scum buds bus is because one is not active, and it looks like a good way to get town credit,

But then inno replaced into the inactive slot and that changes the ball game so it gives less incentive to bus the buddy.

[RachMarie]

I have not yet gone through his iso and compared it, but atm I really am worn out its after 3 AM here

will be here tomorrow.

[Zorblag]

@RachMarie, innocentvillager day one was inactive and managed one post and then didn't find time to reply to my almost instant questions. He wasn't an active replacement.

But let me flip this, would town have reason to change their read given the replacement? Sure scum could, but would town?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@RachMarie, please do. It really feels like you're avoiding this and I think that the reasons that I care about it should be clear at this point. If you're town then you need to work with me here.

For now have a good sleep and I'll talk to you tomorrow.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@Nachomamma8, would RachMarie as scum interact this way with Jaack as a scum partner? Ignoring how she's interacting with you and the rest of the game, is at least that much consistent? Tell me I'm wrong and should look somewhere else. Also, be here at in general.

@Foxbird, that be here bit goes double for you. Who is scum at this point?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Foxbird]

Sorry. I will be giving this game my full attention now, for what it's worth. I just finished my first game as scum onsite, so if anyone wants that link for meta reasons, I can post the link. I don't think that game is very telling, though, since I wasn't that active due to thread toxicity between other players. The scum PT is released, too, though, so maybe someone wants to take a look at that.

@Foxbird, that be here bit goes double for you. Who is scum at this point?

Based on my townreads, the pool comes down to inno, Jaack, and Rach. If I trust Nacho in his assessment of Rach (for now, at least, gotta look at associations after we get one scum flip), that leaves inno and Jaack. Of those two, I like Inno less. He has been saying I'm scum all day, yet hasn't really made a case - it comes down to PoE. And that would be fine, but he keeps saying that Nacho is scum, too, and he has given quite a few actual reasons for not trusting him. So why vote me instead of a player he has a more detailed read on? His no lynch vote also seems strange - we are close to deadline, but there's still time to come to a consensus for the lynch, and the rest of the town has clearly expressed that they want to lynch. The only player who also wanted a no lynch is Jaack, curiously enough.

Regarding 681, Zorblag, why would he make the ecane lynch "less likely"? There never was a wagon on her.

[Jaack]

@Jaack, you seem fairly sure that Nachomamma8 is town at this point, can you say why that is? It shouldn't be his claim as he's got nothing to lose as scum making that claim based on the knowledge scum have of the setup. It's actually a better claim for scum to make than VT because it gives more wiggle room for no kills if they want to make them. innocentvillager pointed this out earlier, but I don't recall whether that was before or after you made your post about Nachomamma8's likelihood of being scum. Is there something else or is that it?

Well, nacho was my number one town read going into today even without the claim, and it's a read I continue to hold, but the claim is a decent size part of why I'm not interested in lynching him, at least today.

I don't think it's unlikely that scum would make that claim, but I would think it would have been something scum planned overnight. As such, I'm not sure why it would be nacho to make the claim. There has been exceedingly little interest in lynching nacho this entire game, and, for better or for worse, town is likely to be more hesitant in lynching a claimed BP than a claimed VT.

There was a decent amount of interest among living players in lynching you (zorblag), IV, and Rach on D2. I would expect if one of you were partners with nacho, that player would have claimed BP instead. And foxbird, while there wasn't much interest in her at all yesterday, was not exactly squeaky clean coming out of D2, and certainly a more likely lynch than nacho. (Furthermore, as I've come to the conclusion that one of {zorblag, IV} must be scum, a foxbird/nacho team with nacho claiming BP is really unlikely)

If you have a case on nacho, I'll consider it, but I'm not particularly interest in lynching outside you or IV right now.

[RachMarie]

@ Troll I think you are misunderstanding my read on Jaack

I am not saying he is solidly town I am saying that my strongest scum read is on inno, followed by one on fox. Jaack is in third place, I feel that both scum are in those 3 players.

I feel that Nacho and you are town, and I know that I am town,

so in order

Myself since I know I am town
Nacho Really strong town read with a LOT of experience and meta behind it
Troll feels like his town play and a fairly strong town read


Jaack meh read feel like if fox is not inno's partner then this guy is
Fox stronger scum read see interactions tween her and inno
Inno strongest scum read and this is where my vote is


I hope that clarifies a bit more my reads for you Troll.

[Jaack]

Okay time to finish pairing analysis

Zorblag-Rach
Sooo much interaction here, to the point that I doubt scum would talk to and about each other as much as they have in thread, particularly in a game as relatively lurky as this.

That being said, despite zorblag's scumread on rach for much of D2, they did sort of cooperate on pushing IV. There's something. Furthermore, Zorblag has pushed me and Rach as a likely scumteam. That would put him in a position to lynch me and win or lynch Rach and have the spotlight on me D4.

VERDICT: Ehh, Occam's Razor leads me to assume that two scum wouldn't occupy the thread as much as this pair has. I don't think this is the scumteam.

Zorblag-Foxbird
I might be a bit biased because I kind of want this to be the scum team because these were my first two scumreads of the game, but there's something there. Specifically D1 stuff.

In general, a lot of the interactions between these two slots seemed fishy D1, both when caston was here and once zorblag replaced in. D2, zorblag puts foxbird into his vaguely townpile and doesn't concern himself too much, although this could be because foxbird wasn't really doing much D2.

Foxbird has seemingly settled on townreading zorblag due to effort. That's not exactly something worth commenting on other than to note it exists.

VERDICT: Yeah, its doable, but most of a case on this pair relies on D1 stuff.

IV-Rach
On the one hand this seems unlikely, mainly due to Rach's play today. I doubt rach would have been so willing to bus IV in mylo. (Both early, before anyone had expressed any inkling of direction; and now, when there doesn't seem to be an inevitable lynch.

Looking back at previous days, Rach made a pretty sudden flip in the midst of Day 2 from IV-town to IV-scum. Well its not that sudden as she expressed a desire to review her town read there earlier in the day, but it was reasonably sudden.

IV voted Rach right from his replacement in, and in general has been pretty focused on rach as a lynch choice until being seemingly convinced of her townieness at the end of D2 by nacho. It's noteworthy, because this flip essentially ensured the foe lynch. With rach being a less viable option and the people who were hestitating on the foe wagon (IV, zorblag) not offering other options, foe's lynch became inevitable.

VERDICT: I kind of want to write off this possibilty due to Rach's behavoir today, but there's enough stickiness in days 1 and 2 to make this feasable.

IV-Foxbird
Foxbird was concerned with IV's predecessor D1, but unvotes IV as soon as he enters. Most of Foxbird's commentary on IV on D2 was hesitant (416 iss a good example, with foxbird kind of talking her way into a town read) Same thing with 509, calling something inno did as weird without further commentary.

IV hasn't shown much interest in foxbird until today, kind of writing her off as townish. Now, as the two of them have been generally elevated to the two most likely lynch options, they've turned on each other.

VERDICT: This works pretty good. Maybe the best

FINAL VERDICT: I'm pretty sure it's IV/foxbird. IV/Rach and Fox/Zorblag are doable, but make less sense and are more based on possibilities than actual evidence.

IV's last gasp push for a no lynch is the final nail in the coffin for me.

VOTE: innocentvillager

[Nachomamma8]

I'm here. I see the Rach/Jaack votes on IV, am not horribly concerned because there should definitely be scum in that pair but would be reassured if one unvoted anyways. Zorblag, I do think Jaack could very well be scum (best guess for today) but I'd like to read through him and see what I can turn up.

[RachMarie]

For you Nacho

UNVOTE:

The fact that a second vote instead of a FoS was placed on inno by Jaack pushes him higher above Fox

so now reads are

Me
Nacho
Troll

Fox (may be town after all)
Jaack
Inno

[Jaack]

The fact that a second vote instead of a FoS was placed on inno by Jaack pushes him higher above Fox

Why would I simply fos in this situation. We're less than 2 days from deadline and activity for most of this game has been lacking.