STEVEN UNIVERSE 2 - GAME OVER

[McMenno]

this game is now longer than any non-archived large theme

and we're on day 2

we can do it guys and gals, let's keep titus and farside alive

[Creature]

VOTECOUNT 1.08

Reasonably Rational (5):

McMenno, DrippingGoofball, mastin2, Creature, Firebringer

McMenno (4):

CooLDoG, SirCakez, Seraphim, Almost50

Not Chara (4):

grapes, Skybird, Yume, Obi-Wan Kenobi

SirCakez (1):

Not Chara

Creature (1):

Xkfyu

Farside22 (1):

SnarkySnowman

Not Voting (9):

Klingoncelt, Foxbird, Shiro, Reasonably Rational, Kraskaeaque, killthestory, randomidget, TheWayItEnds, Farside22

[Creature]

Might there be scum there?

[Creature]

Maybe DrippingGoofball + CooLDoG/Seraphim

[Reasonably Rational]

Okay,

So we got together and went over the info we have. Some of it is in this thread and easy to find (Look at Klingon's ISO, for example; town need only look at our win con). We also have some additional info which we're only sharing with people we trust (Thank you Yume for evaluating thoughts and saying something).

Most of the nearly 50 pages of catching up I've done has been a lot of endless fighting over stuff, and I think most of it was useless. I mean really and truly useless. The reason is really simple:

There is almost certainly a separate Crystal Gems faction and they are almost certainly third party. We're pretty sure (for a couple reasons, but primarily because of how our win condition is phrased) that they are compatible with town and we can win with them (but we can't be sure until one of them flips), but they are almost certainly NOT town.

Spoiler: Why we believe this

First is the evidence in our win condition. The first part is mostly standard: all threats to Earth must be removed from the game. (removed is obviously interesting in light of game events, and we think is weak evidence that the Crystal Gems faction is town compatible). The second is only necessary if there is either some way that we could remove all scum and also somehow all be dead (makes very little sense) or if there's a third party (in this case a faction of third parties) who can hit the win condition. It makes very little to no sense for Varsoon to put that detail in there that at least one of us has to be alive to win, unless there's a reason. It's absurdly improbable for some situation to arise where all the remaining slots alive have the ability to kill and all kill one another. It's far more likely that if all members of the town die, there exists another faction which can remove the remaining scum and still satisfy the first part of the win condition.

Second, there's Klingoncelt. She has claimed to be a miller. And a Crystal Gem. Firebringer corroborated her crystal gem status by his supposition that he was bubbled by the gems (removed from the game!), and she was able to talk in his bubbled PT. We also have Mastin who has claimed to be a miller. A decent amount of the noise in the game has been over the multiple miller claims (among other things).

What makes the most sense here, rather than two town millers? They aren't. One is a 3p who investigates as scum, and the other is town who investigates as scum. Mastin is cleared by Yume. KC seems to be cleared by Firebringer.

Third. Well, third is some other things that we're only sharing with those we're certain we can trust, which will be shared when appropriate, but suffice it to say that there's quite a lot of evidence, and there's almost no chance that we're wrong about this.

Everyone needs to stop all this bickering and shitposting and reassess the game and interactions with this knowledge.

Spoiler: Implications

A lot of the shitposting and fighting that clutters the past 50 pages is probably just making the scum team laugh their asses off at us. Most of it is about stuff that is explained by this. Conflicting role claims are not a cause to make any kind of binary assumption or immediate scum read. The extra faction in play drastically changes things.

Buddying/displays of "too much" knowledge are also not a cause for immediate assumption someone is scum. These things mean you should watch the slot in question obviously, but it's

entirely

possible that these interactions are driven by a decent sized third party faction, which probably has a PT together.

Wagons which have formed and dissipated on people because of "Chainsawing" or people white knighting and such may easily be explained by the extra faction.

TL;DR: There is 99.99% for sure a Crystal Gem faction which we believe likely can win with town (or by themselves, going by our win condition), and this faction probably has their own PT (which could be giving some people similar false scum positives as if they were dealing with ... say ... unclaimed masons). Because of this, pretty much any and all pre-flip associations need to be examined in detail and more carefully than usual, because thins which we normally would view as scum could instead in this case be the work of what is in effect (but not precisely, due to the unknown wincon which we believe is town compatible) a large masonry.


Love with fresh chocolate chip cookies,
Drixx

P.S. - Much credit to Cerberus for catching on to this and convincing me to go digging. In my opinion, most of what I had to read catching up is now completely useless (instead of just mostly useless) because a lot of it was based upon false premise.

[Reasonably Rational]

this game is now longer than any non-archived large theme

and we're on day 2

we can do it guys and gals, let's keep titus and farside alive

This made me laugh a lot. Thank you McMenno. Those pages were tough to read through.

You should know, though, that SMITE had like 6k posts in just day one, if I am remembering correctly. I replaced in on day 2 I think and it took me FOREVER to catch up. At the rate we're going though...

~Drixx

[Reasonably Rational]

this game is now longer than any non-archived large theme

and we're on day 2

we can do it guys and gals, let's keep titus and farside alive

This made me laugh a lot. Thank you McMenno. Those pages were tough to read through.

You should know, though, that SMITE had like 6k posts in just day one, if I am remembering correctly. I replaced in on day 2 I think and it took me FOREVER to catch up. At the rate we're going though...

~Drixx

SF had the longest D1.

Almost longest game period, but not quite.

-Cerb

[Titus]

@RR, I'm pretty sure I know who did the gem on Firebringer. I'm pretty sure that's NOT a third party action.

What makes the most sense is that Klingoncelt is just scum, claiming miller.

I'm like 99.9% sure you're wrong and this is a distraction, but that you mean well.

[Yume]

But his reasoning is plausible.

[Reasonably Rational]

There's too much that we aren't saying that points to it being the case Titus. We're nearly certain and have looked through it and talked with each other and we agree. There's a really obvious and really good reason why we cannot point out all the things that would almost certainly convince you. If we live and we can fit you into finale alliance, we can elaborate there. We won't do so in the main thread. If the implications of what we're withholding are correct, we must absolutely never share it with anyone we cannot 100% trust.

~Drixx

P-Edit: Thank you Yume. Our reasoning is all Valid. We have multiple pieces of strong evidence to support or premises, so it is probable that our reasoning is also SOUND, which is why we spoke up. We don't dump this info lightly.

[Almost50]

@RR:

Ally with me, PLEASE!

[Almost50]

^^ I'll give you evidence I'm town.

[Yume]

Ruby
ybuR
yubR
ubyR
Rybu

[Titus]

There's too much that we aren't saying that points to it being the case Titus. We're nearly certain and have looked through it and talked with each other and we agree. There's a really obvious and really good reason why we cannot point out all the things that would almost certainly convince you. If we live and we can fit you into finale alliance, we can elaborate there. We won't do so in the main thread. If the implications of what we're withholding are correct, we must absolutely never share it with anyone we cannot 100% trust.

~Drixx

P-Edit: Thank you Yume. Our reasoning is all Valid. We have multiple pieces of strong evidence to support or premises, so it is probable that our reasoning is also SOUND, which is why we spoke up. We don't dump this info lightly.

You're asking me to judge evidence not provided to reach your conclusion. I do not use inadmissible evidence, nor do I expect you to RR.

Your admissible evidence is based on what I feel is a faulty interpretation of the win condition. Even if there's a possibility that such a third party exists, it shouldn't change much if anything in the way of scumhunting as we're looking for either a) people who have buddies or b) people overly invested in their own survival.

So, I don't think you're correct but my analysis wouldn't change if you were. So what's the point?

[Almost50]

@Titus:

Sometimes your stubbornness is extra awful. Why can't you just concede RR might be spot on. Like 50-50, perhaps?

[Reasonably Rational]

You've spent a great deal of time fighting with someone who I think is probably town, and I think you are probably town, and I'd prefer that we could work together and stop with that.

Also; my evidence isn't inadmissible so much as I'm not willing to give it to scum. The next time we can ally (finale?) I'll be happy to give you all of it and I'm pretty sure you'll be convinced. You should be able to trust that Cerb and I together can reason well enough that if we feel the evidence is strong enough to share what we have, then you should know, based upon our standards and your experience with us, that we have a lot we're basing that on.

I agree with you that people who are overly invested in survival should be suspect; however, there are certain people who could give a false positive on that. Look at our role from the first Steven Universe game. Now imagine if someone can do that (or something equally as role powerful) but without the ability to IC. They would definitely want to survive and also not want to out their ability. So just keep that in mind.

I disagree about people having buddies, because I'm pretty certain that there is an actual 3rd faction in play who are town friendly (with strong reasons for these beliefs) and there will certainly be false positives with associatives in that case.

I guess we'll know for sure when one of them flips? (Note my certainty)

Love,
Drixx

P.S. - Advice on who we should ally with would be appreciated. We're suddenly flooded with offers. Also ... do you feel like we can make finale work if we're both alive?

[Titus]

@Almost, I've conceded there's a possibility he might be right on third parties, but I don't agree with him. I'm never going to agree with anyone who cannot justify their opinion based on things I can analyze or deduce, nor would I expect any less from him. I'm not doubting his belief in it either. I just don't see the point in the discussion. I'm trying to agree to disagree.

I think you should stay with Shiro.

@RR, Agreed on false positives sometimes happening. That happens, but if you deduce who

doesn't

have buddies, then you can PoE who does. Your reasoning has

never

been the weak point. It's been the lack or mistaken information that's been your downfall. You're as good as the data you're given and the assumptions you make. That's why you're rather weak Day 1. You have made some dreadful assumptions in the past and scum used that information to fool you or the mod did. You assumptions don't factor in illogical player manuevers as much.

Mastina, whom I respect equally, says 100% no third parties. Third parties doesn't make sense with being aligned with earth. Crystal gems are here helping to protect earth.I have to agree with one of you, and I'm agreeing with the person I know to be town and whose analysis matches my own, without evidence to the contrary.

This doesn't mean you're wrong. This doesn't mean that your information is worthless, but rather I do not act on information that I cannot see if I can avoid it. I believe you believe that.

Why not just stay with Random? This sudden rash to ally with you is interesting, but I am not recommending russian roulette.

[Yume]

@Titus So all you said earlier was a lie. You don't really respect me at all. Good to know. :/

[Titus]

@Titus So all you said earlier was a lie. You don't really respect me at all. Good to know. :/

Wtf? I

do

respect you.

[Titus]

This isn't a popularity contest. I think that you believe RR and I respect the fact you disagree with me Yume.

I just see that I'm looking at the evidence in front of me and Mastina agrees. That's all I see. You can present what RR told you to me in our alliance.

I just wonder

why

RR never said this to me day 1.

[Yume]

You just said that you disagree with them because she says it cannot be and that you respect them. Therefore, the fact that I vouch for them means nothing despite you claiming you townread them.

[Yume]

Sorry.....

[Titus]

You just said that you disagree with them because she says it cannot be and that you respect them. Therefore, the fact that I vouch for them means nothing despite you claiming you townread them.

I understand I spoke inartfully. You agree with RR. I'm thinking RR is town based on your vouch for them, but logic isn't something one sheeps. It's something where we use others to verify if our process is faulty. You already have access to RR's information, that I don't. Therefore, you cannot be a check on my critical reasoning skills there. You can't simultaneously know and not know something. I can disagree with you and respect you, just like I am doing with RR.

[Titus]

Sorry.....

It's ok. I offend people without meaning too.

Would you like a doll?

[Yume]

I don't want a doll. I want Jasper to be redeemed. I want Jaspis.