STEVEN UNIVERSE 2 - GAME OVER

[grapes]

fugit

VOTE: Snarky

[mastin2]

Mastin can we please just lynch kraska?

I mean, my read there is stronger.

But do you think we can get the support?

As far as I know, I won't get Titus's backing.
I may not get RR's backing, either.
That's about a third of the town's strength, minimum, not backing me (when you throw in who will sheep whom), and if the read's right, scum

certainly

won't.

I don't like compromising, especially when it comes to a lynch like, say, DGB. (That's my last-resort lynch right now.)
But, I honestly don't think I can convince the rest of the town that kraskaesque is scum.

Especially since one of the fears involved in the lynch that players would have is one I myself have.
Like, I'm pretty confident kraskaesque is scum. Yet there is that nagging doubt, "What if I'm wrong?"
If kraskaesque is scum and we lynch them, we clear all of the top-voters.
But if kraskaesque isn't scum and we lynch them, we accomplish nothing except weakening the town's cohesion even further.
And as much as I think kraskaesque is scum. I empathize with those who think/fear kraskaesque is town, because that thought

terrifies

me. I'm afraid of the consequences if I'm wrong.

I don't think I am.
But I don't think I have the guts to stick up, plant my foot down, and stay firm to that read enough to force it through. If I, the person who strongly feels that kraska is scum, am afraid of the what-if involved, how can I reasonably expect to persuade those who aren't as sold on kraska being scum?

Especially when it comes to the logic involved. My case against kraskaesque relies mainly on two factors: their lackluster play, and their bad voting pattern in established VCA.

My case against SnarkySnowman holds those same two values...but also adds in a bad positioning in the Beach event, something kraska unfortunately holds an advantage in. (Kraska was a top-voter, people hesitate to vote a top-voter.) What am I to do? Say to Titus that I think kraskaesque may fit the profile of the scum tactician? That'd be pure speculation on my part (albeit speculation that I kinda like the sound of), not an informed fact, and something that'd be hard to confirm one way or another.

In short: I know my strengths and weaknesses as a player, and I know what Titus best listens to and does/doesn't understand.
The objective points against SnarkySnowman are pretty dang strong.
The points against kraskaesque are good, but not quite as objective.

tl;dr:
I don't think I can spearhead a kraskaesque lynch, no matter my desire to.
I DO think I can spearhead a SnarkySnowman lynch.

[mastin2]

mastin updated thoughts on xk?

Similar to Shiro (and to some extent, Creature): I have speculation in mind, which would if true mean not scum.
I don't have confirmation.

Xkfyu's play is extremely lackluster.
But RR wasn't the only one who caught wind of a possibility. What RR saw might've been different from what I saw, but I did see something which makes me still want to put off any thought of lynching Xkfyu until later. Like, after season finale minimum, later.

[Reasonably Rational]

Patience Titus. You're missing something crucial, I think. Remember what you've been teaching me about how to go about things, especially in light of how many times we've gotten to the brink of victory and failed. You can't push us to change and then point to that change as bad.

You should not, by any means, consider us cleared; however, we know we are and you know what to expect from us. I don't plan to say anything more on the subject in the main thread. Scum can kill us or you can have an infodump in our alliance. It's binary at this point, and we'll be info dumping to A50 in case we don't make it until tomorrow. Like ... you leaked a little bit about our main ability, and I'm not sure we're going to be left alive if the pieces get put together. Please say nothing else about it for now. Just think.

One popular definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. We led hard and trampled over people in SU. We should have won but lost. We (rightfully, I think) questioned a slot which had claimed IC and then went out of their way to trigger it in SU2 (see: our sig) and got mislynched as a result. We clashed hard with you in Space Dandy because we saw things you didn't and we couldn't seem to get you to line up with us... and lost. Seeing the pattern?

~Drixx

@Mastin - You made a more compelling case against Snarky. Cerb's at work so we haven't talked much about it, but like ... if you prefer Kraskaesque can you explain it? Your approach and ours are really different, as you know. Explain it to me like I'm five.

P-Edit: Stop talking about that Mastin. I'm fairly sure we saw the same thing. We can't ally with you to compare notes since you can't talk, but we can get our thoughts relayed to you and see if we're on the same page.

[Titus]

I am even less inclined to lynch Snarky than I am Kraska. Kraska I thought had the possibility of having slipped before. Snarky has only gone after scum from what I see. So why should I have a problem there?

You want to talk about a garbage ISO, we got Shadow and Skybird.

[mastin2]

Also,

for Titus:

Spoiler: VCA

Not Chara (5):

mastin2, Yume, Obi-Wan Kenobi, Almost50, grapes

Reasonably Rational (3):

Firebringer, McMenno, DrippingGoofball

This is the first juicy votecount in the game. Now, we know Not Chara is town at this point...and yet, we also know that this is an entirely-town wagon on it. That may be a bit weird...but yet, we know it to be true, so I'm not really concerned.

However, keep in mind grapes switched from RR to Not Chara, meaning there could be a brief time where RR was at four votes. I cannot make the same all-town guarantee.

McMenno (5):

CooLDoG

, Firebringer, SirCakez, Seraphim, Almost50

Not Chara (4):

grapes, Skybird, Yume, Obi-Wan Kenobi

Reasonably Rational (3):

McMenno, DrippingGoofball, Creature

SirCakez (2):

Not Chara, mastin2

The next juicy wagon is this. We know McMenno has one scum on him. The only question is whether it's more than one, and I currently don't think so.
The Not Chara wagon collapsed and reformed with the same names on it, just with Skybird as an extra: again, I think it an abnormality that we have an all-town wagon on town, but since we know it's true, I don't think much of it. The RR wagon has Creature replace Firebringer, so now we know there's at least one player who isn't scum on it, if not two. (McMenno is a townread of mine.)

Reasonably Rational (5):

McMenno, DrippingGoofball, mastin2, Creature, Firebringer

McMenno (4):

CooLDoG, SirCakez, Seraphim, Almost50

Not Chara (4):

grapes, Skybird, Yume, Obi-Wan Kenobi

Then we get this. The RR wagon grows in size. The question is: is RR town? If so, then what's the wagon composition look like? Because again, DGB sticks out here. We know that McMenno has one scum on him, and I sincerely doubt he has two. We also know that Not Chara is all-town. So, the majority of the scum weren't voting the major wagons at the time--this might indicate that the scum lacked incentive to do so, as they were all on town.

Not Chara (6):

grapes, Skybird, Yume, Almost50, Kraskaeaque

Reasonably Rational (4):

McMenno, DrippingGoofball, mastin2, Farside22

McMenno (3):

CooLDoG, SirCakez, Seraphim

We've already covered why kraskaesques's presence here is suspicious. I honestly, legitimately, think we had three town wagons, each wagon with one scum (and exactly one scum, no more) on it at this point.

SirCakez (5):

Not Chara, Yume, mastin2, Obi-Wan Kenobi, McMenno

Not Chara (3):

grapes, Skybird, Kraskaeaque

Reasonably Rational (3):

DrippingGoofball, Farside22, Firebringer

McMenno (3):

CooLDoG, SirCakez, Seraphim

The Not Chara wagon is remnants. The RR wagon's only addition is Firebringer. The McMenno wagon is remnants. That means none of those wagons were counterwagons to this sudden SirCakez wagon. And, tell me...do any of those votes have a chance of being scum? We know for sure 4/5 aren't, and that looks pretty good for McMenno, especially if you iso him and see that he actually

was

driving for that lynch.

SirCakez (7):

Not Chara, mastin2, Obi-Wan Kenobi, McMenno, Yume, grapes, Shiro

Shiro (4):

Farside22, Skybird, Almost50

Added names: grapes and Shiro. Do you think grapes is scum? I don't. Do you think Shiro is scum? I believe there is reason not to. So the wagon is still clean.
And you see the closest thing to a counterwagon? The wagon on Shiro. Which has three names on it. Three names, all of them which have good reason to be town. It can therefore be safely assumed: scum were deliberately avoiding a counterwagon at this point, hoping to talk players down from voting SirCakez through other methods.

SirCakez (10):

Not Chara, mastin2, Obi-Wan Kenobi, McMenno, Yume, grapes, Shiro, Firebringer, Reasonably Rational, SnarkySnowman

Shiro (4):

Farside22, Skybird, Almost50

Firebringer (2):

Klingoncelt

McMenno (2):

CooLDoG, Seraphim

Skybird (1):

Creature

Not Chara (1):

Kraskaeaque

Creature (1):

Xkfyu

Obi-Wan Kenobi (1):

SirCakez

Farside22 (1):

killthestory

Not Voting (4):

Foxbird, randomidget, TheWayItEnds, DrippingGoofball

New additions: Firebringer, RR, and SnarkySnowman. Tell me, which of these players do you least trust? Which of these three players is not a townread? Which of these players has a different interaction with SirCakez from the others?

And look at those other wagons. There's still no counterwagon. And there won't be.

SirCakez (10):

Not Chara, mastin2, Obi-Wan Kenobi, McMenno, grapes, Shiro, Xkfyu, SnarkySnowman, Yume, Kraskaeaque

Farside22 (3):

killthestory, Firebringer, Almost50

Shiro (2):

Farside22, Skybird

Firebringer (2):

Klingoncelt

McMenno (2):

CooLDoG, Thefuzzylogic99

Not Voting (6):

Foxbird, randomidget, TheWayItEnds, DrippingGoofball, Creature, Reasonably Rational

This was post-claim. From the movement of votes: SnarkySnowman and Yume both hopped off the wagon, before rejoining it. Xkfyu joined the wagon, and kraskaesque also joined the wagon.

The closest thing to a counterwagon formed post-claim is the farside wagon, with her gaining votes from Firebringer and Almost50. Unless you think either of them are scum...that means. Again. No scum counterwagon to SirCakez. (Speaking of, SirCakez consistently voting McMenno for most of the day with McMenno being the closest thing to his counterwagon is, again, a reason why McMenno would be town.)

The only real spot for scum other than the wagon on SirCakez is in Shadow_step(Foxbird)/randomidget/TWIE/DGB.

Reasonably Rational (6):

grapes, DrippingGoofball, McMenno, Yume, Creature, mastin2

Foxbird (1):

Kraskaeaque

Ironically, kraskaesque going against the flow here sticks out like a sore thumb.
If there's scum on the RR wagon, the only possibility is DGB.

Loopdan (6):

mastin2, Titus, Almost50, Shiro, Xkfyu, Not Chara

Reasonably Rational (3):

grapes, DrippingGoofball, McMenno

I'd like to point out: where are the scum on these wagons? We know Mathblade was town, and the wagon looks pretty town. (Xkfyu and Shiro are the only possible scum names, but both have reasons to not be scum.) The answer: scum had no incentive to join the wagons because scum weren't being lynched.

Mathblade (9):

mastin2, Titus, Almost50, Shiro, Xkfyu, Not Chara, grapes, McMenno, SnarkySnowman

Again: Mathblade was town. I'm town, you're town, Not Chara is town. Almost50 and grapes are surefire town. Shiro and Xkfyu are both passable town. Do you think McMenno is scum? If not, then that's eight votes in a row that are town, and if you look at the reasoning behind them, this is understandable.

Now compare that with SnarkySnowman as the ninth. His vote sticks out like a sore thumb.

Mathblade (10):

mastin2, Almost50, Shiro, Xkfyu, grapes, McMenno, SnarkySnowman, DrippingGoofball, Yume, Titus

DrippingGoofball (4):

Klingoncelt, Farside22, Not Chara, Firebringer

Mathblade (8):

mastin2, Almost50, Shiro, Xkfyu, McMenno, DrippingGoofball, Yume, Titus

DrippingGoofball (4):

Klingoncelt, Not Chara, Firebringer, SnarkySnowman

First peak of the Mathblade wagon, DGB joins. And, looking at that DGB wagon, we know it's all town.

Then we get SnarkySnowman switching to DGB, but that wagon doesn't gain much traction. Shiro and Mathblade join it, but we know Mathblade was town and Shiro has reason to be town.

So let me ask you this:

Mathblade (

LYNCH

):

mastin2

,

Almost50

,

Xkfyu, McMenno

, DrippingGoofball,

Yume, Titus

,

Creature, Farside22

,

Not Chara

,

grapes

,

Mathblade

, Firebringer

DrippingGoofball (3):

Klingoncelt

, SnarkySnowman,

Shiro

Shadow_Step (1):

Kraskaeaque

Farside22 (1):

randomidget

grapes (1):

killthestory

Xkfyu (1):

Skybird

TheFuzzyLogic99 (1):

Shadow_Step

Not Voting (3):

Reasonably Rational

, TheWayItEnds, TheFuzzylogic99

Where are the scum on the mislynch? Literally the only possible names are DGB (off-voter) and Firebringer (off-voter). That means there MUST be at absolute MINIMUM two scum off the Mathblade mislynch, and that's if you assume both DGB and Firebringer are scum. If you assume one's town, then that's three scum off, and if you think both are town, that means all four are off.

What does the off give you?
kraskaesque (top-voter), SnarkySnowman (off-voter), randomidget (off-voter), Shadow_step (off-voter), TWIE (off-voter), and Thefuzzylogic (off-voter).

Six plausible names for at minimum two scum slots. A probability of three, meaning at least half of the above are scum. A possibility of four, making two-thirds scum.

In short: the Mathblade wagon was INCREDIBLY town-driven, in spite of being a mislynch. So you'll find most of the scum outside.
And by no coincidence, most of the players outside are players who were off-voters. (Of the 11 outside the wagon, only 3 were top-voters. The other 8 all were not.)

Worth noting: The "none" answers have ALL of DGB/randomidget/SnarkySnowman.
The worthless-equivalent-to-none answers have Shadow_step.

Guess which group looks worse to me?

[mastin2]

if you prefer Kraskaesque can you explain it? Your approach and ours are really different, as you know. Explain it to me like I'm five.

First off: speculation. If the scumteam has a rational thinker...I think it could be at least one head of kraskaesque. I don't have any rational explanation to justify this. This is my first game with either of the heads as far as I know, so it's not like I have intimate knowledge of them. I don't even have a solid psychological profile. But my gut is telling me, for some reason, that at least one head of kraskaesque is deceptively smart, able to make calculated plays and run the risks and roll the die with smart action choices.

I really wish I had more experience with them to confirm, either alignment would really work because mechanical knowledge as scum tends to not mystically disappear when the slot is town. (Quite the contrary, actually! It's more well-hidden as scum.) So, an inexplicable

feeling

that they are the missing piece in the puzzle, for why the scumteam has made the choices they have.

Second, they fit the same profile for scum play. They have been avoiding the major wagons. The only exception? SirCakez...at the time his lynch became inevitable.

Third, they have made zero pushes that had substance to them.

Fourth, they've been lurking a lot, and this is especially egregious because they are a hydra and neither head has had a marked V/LA that I can recall, at least to my knowledge.

Fifth, hypocrisy: a huge part of their case against Shadow_step is off of Foxbird's (and later, the hydra with Foxbird) inactivity, when Foxbird was V/LA for most of the game. Another huge part of their case against Shadow_step? Aside from inactivity, a lack of content...but a look at their iso will reveal the majority of it to be fluff, and the few times they make a push, it is empty and reasonless, without much substance.

Sixth, their lack of broad reads.
You know they have a scumread on Shadow_step.
Okay.
What about other reads?

They've been narrowly on one subject, and one subject only, for pretty much the whole game.

Seven, because I said so.

[farside22]

VOTE: snarky

[mastin2]

Snarky has only gone after scum from what I see.

Did you bother to check his reasons (rather, lack thereof) for going after SirCakez?
Did you see the timing of his votes? (A vote on SirCakez when nobody else was, which was removed the SECOND someone else did vote. Then, only voting him when the lynch was inevitable. Then, hopping off, onto a counterwagon--I think he voted farside?--and then, back on when SirCakez could not be saved.)

And then.
What other scum do you see? Farside?

You know my opinion there.

You want to talk about a garbage ISO, we got Shadow and Skybird.

Shadow_step is ten times more town than either SnarkySnowman or kraskaesque. He always was, but you apparently weren't paying attention to his posts on...312, was it?...because there is NO way you can read those posts and not think he looks much better. He explained his stances reasonably, and stuck to his guns. He raised good points, and perfectly countered what little offense had been mounted against him. He addressed your concerns, but you brushed him off.

And Skybird has done a hundred times more content-filled iso than kraskaesque or SnarkySnowman. She has given opinions on basically everyone and backed them up with reasons.

It's night and day.

[Not Chara]

mastin, you should be aware that lycan has disappeared since day 1, and kraska has been piloting the hydra by herself. just, to add to your analysis.

[McMenno]

If the scumteam has a rational thinker...

you could even say that they're...

reasonably rational.



anyway, grapes and chara, I think we can do some... hardcore strategising together. we can get a bite and discuss strategies

[McMenno]

also yes shadow is wholly capable of doing this as town

just be glad iraonapvp isn't in this game

[Titus]

Snarky has only gone after scum from what I see.

Did you bother to check his reasons (rather, lack thereof) for going after SirCakez?
Did you see the timing of his votes? (A vote on SirCakez when nobody else was, which was removed the SECOND someone else did vote. Then, only voting him when the lynch was inevitable. Then, hopping off, onto a counterwagon--I think he voted farside?--and then, back on when SirCakez could not be saved.)

And then.
What other scum do you see? Farside?

You know my opinion there.

You want to talk about a garbage ISO, we got Shadow and Skybird.

Shadow_step is ten times more town than either SnarkySnowman or kraskaesque. He always was, but you apparently weren't paying attention to his posts on...312, was it?...because there is NO way you can read those posts and not think he looks much better. He explained his stances reasonably, and stuck to his guns. He raised good points, and perfectly countered what little offense had been mounted against him. He addressed your concerns, but you brushed him off.

And Skybird has done a hundred times more content-filled iso than kraskaesque or SnarkySnowman. She has given opinions on basically everyone and backed them up with reasons.

It's night and day.

Yeah, and he reminds me of Machina Mafia. I have made the mistakes you have. Don't get me wrong. I understand why you scumread Snarky, and I think the entire wagon is town on him, I also think the wagon on Farside is totally town but you're defending Farside when the Only thing pointing as town is how much of an ass she is.

I think Kraska is the one providing content out of Kraska v shadow step. I don't get how you see shadow going why me and deflecting as townish.

[Not Chara]

McMenno: i really wouldn't mind allying with you and grapes, McMenno. but Firebringer asked me first and he's also obvious town to me. :<
Fire could go with farside and kraska? i'm not sure if he's townreading both, i can't remember that right now for the life of me.

and: did you mean shadow is capable of doing this as scum?
i still haven't made my mind up about Rational. i think if the scumteam were going to try and disguise one of their own using the beachapalooza votes, Rational would be a good candidate. but they simply don't feel like scum to me.

pedit: Titus, there are other things... but i've sort of given up on that front. the important thing is we're now lynching a player who actually has a good chance of flipping scum. i do agree with you that kraska looks better between herself and Shadow.

[grapes]

Chara I think we should roll with menno.

[Not Chara]

alright.

[Titus]

Snarky doesn't have a good chance of flipping scum. He's someone I think is town. Ffs.

[Titus]

Now, I am going to do my own vca. VCA should NOT be used to condemn a slot but to see who is town and clear though.

[Not Chara]

and farside is someone i think is town.
looking forward to your VCA. we have more flips to work with now.

[Varsoon]

@Varsoon: the rules say stress increases with any non-scum deatb, which implies third party flips would result in a stress increase.. Please confirm that the stress was not meant to change.

-Cerb

D'oh. Yeah. Stress should be increased due to the kill on a non-scum slot.
I'll go edit that in.

[Reasonably Rational]

Okay, so I just looked over the amethyst flip, and I'm pretty damn sure the redacted things are NOT all gem alliance abilities.

The last three, sure.

But the first two? No.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

If the scumteam has a rational thinker...

you could even say that they're...

reasonably rational.

Also, this is cute.

I approve of this quip.

-Cerb

[Titus]

Ok, so here we go.

The first VCA with relevant data is actually the first one. I was pushing Cakez/Creature/Not Chara, and Xkfyu was down for pressuring that for quite awhile. This strongly suggests that if Creature is scum Xkfyku is not scum. I don't see him lurk parking a buddy to get the game going.

We look at 1.02 which includes Farside's vote on me. It's almost as if scum had my meta of vote me early to throw me off my game. That's again pointing towards a meta player in the scums. That's also just circular as Farside is a meta player. The Not Chara wagon pops up again, it's all town. Snarky is voting not town.

1.03 all town wagon on RR emerges as well. NC is the leading wagon. So we know that at least one of these groups is wrong.

1.04 - Meanwhile Snarky and Creature are voting scum. The first two voters on a scum wagon when there

must

be a town wagon for them to choose.

This isn't likely scum here. Like I don't ever see myself voting for Snarky.

1.05 - Not Chara's wagon is full of town. Dgb is on RR. Snarky has moved back to Farside, who by her own confession is not town. Farside is distancing from Cakey here, since she never went back when he was under the threat of lynch.

1.07 - McMenno wagon from nowhere. Yippie. Given the push here has 1 scum, 1 terrible town (MathBlade/CoolDog), 2 non voters in the beach and Almost50, I feel relatively confident that this is a wagon on town.

SirCakez joining this wagon when he's under suspicion though is interesting. Does SirCakez not want to reveal which of RR or NC as scum? If he's just Sheeping popular wagons, he would have voted NC or RR long ago. Strongly suggests scum in NC and RR.

1.08 - RR wagon takes off again. Only one questionable name on RR (DGB) and only one on NC (Skybird).

1.09 - Kraska joins the NC wagon. He's in the bus zone right now. Creature left the RR wagon to vote A50. Creature is a non voter. Creature was also early on the Cakey wagon and left.

1.10 - Cakey wagon takes off. Most of the non voters are doing useless things.

1.11 - grapes and Shiro come off, killing most of the counter wagons.

1.12 - A Shiro wagon comes up to counter SirCakez. It heavily not town driven given Skybird used

both

her votes there.

1.13 to end Day 1 - RR puts the wagon over the edge. RR really wants us to know and have credit for this

on Day 2

. Snarky votes SirCakez back, but Creature never does. A Farside wagon emerges after the wagon on SirCakez is destined to be lynched.

In any universe, that puts Snowman as town more likely than not. If Farside was a scum driven wagon, it was meant to appeal to me and Snowman. If it was a town driven wagon, then everyone was so convinced Farside was scum, they'd risk bring labeled as scum themselves to wagon Farside.

Of note Almost50 doesn't look good here but I feel he is town though.

[Firebringer]

Do people actually think Yume is going to be target for night kills?

[SnarkySnowman]

This is pretty likely A50's town game imo.

Can we go back to how DGB is basically confscum now?