Mini Normal 1843 - Endgame

[BlackVoid]

Might as well point out the Black and Void are both scary, just like Mafia...

vote BlackVoid

But I am innocent.

[BlackVoid]

Lylo. If you are the deciding vote in LYLO, chances are scum brought you there because they believe you'll vote wrong. Maybe dice tags will give you a better shot.

[BlackVoid]

I firmly believe that voting someone over a (very) weak scumtell is better then voting someone completely randomly.

By your theory, not voting at all is just as bad. Any reason you didn't comment on my and TwoFace's lack of vote?

[BlackVoid]

@Rask, what's there to like about GM's comments on BBT? If you are talking about post #8, there's nothing in there that's an alignment marker. Just looks like an early vote on someone they played with before and hoping that he is town which is something I could see from either alignment.

VOTE: Raskolnikov

This entire post gives me bad vibes:

I actually like what GM said about BBT

unless it's a super catered pocketing attempt.

Also him saying the game was annoying I think mirrors how I felt about people arguing over the dice,

although that's an assumption.

I'm wondering what the likelihood is micheal would issue that PSA #1 as scum, I think very low.

The only issue is the chance he thought of it from pre-game and planned to say it regardless of role pm, instead of just now (makes sense given the circumstances).

No scumleads yet though.

Too many qualifiers. You undermine pretty much all the points you are making.

[BlackVoid]

@Rask, where has Hoopla used associative tells?

@Hoopla, talk to me about Rask's case on you. Do you think he was accurate in accusing you of using associations?

[BlackVoid]

Why MariaR? If you think that scum aided the Rask wagon, why vote a player that didn't vote him?

[BlackVoid]

Are you still suspicious of Rask?

Slightly. The way the wagon formed in a flash and dismantled just as fast piques me and I haven't figured out what it means yet.

I'm skeptical of the townreads on him. Rask's response to the wagon was a bit too textbook-ey for my taste. The *

okay, a wagon formed on me, now to dissect all the votes on it

* reaction looked like it was deliberate and prepared. If he thought you were scummy, he could have just pushed you without analyzing each vote on there including the neutral reads on Sotty7 and TwoFace. It came across like he was trying too hard to present himself as a good townie doing the right thing by "analyzing the wagon."

His actual case on you doesn't make sense to me. He says that you voted him based off of associatives with goodmorning. I re-read your posts and still can't find where you tried to tie Rask to GM so I don't know where that's coming from.

Rask, BBT, and Jaack are all working under the assumption that there is scum on the wagon that needs to be narrowed down. I actually agree with your previous post that there is just as much chance of there being scum off the wagon than on it so I don't get the pseudo-process-of-elimination. I'd prefer actual POE on the whole playerlist when the time comes.

BBT is another player I suspect. He is way too confident in Rask-town while barely even reading his posts. For example, BBT asked Rask who is scum on his wagon

after

Rask had already taken stances on every player on the wagon and singled out you (Hoopla) as the scummiest. The rest of Rask's posts have been a back-and-forth push on you. So, if BBT isn't even reading closely enough to know who Rask's suspicion's are, where's this super-confident townread coming from?

I don't have a read on MariaR yet. She along with Jaack, and Michel seem to be reading Rask's reaction to the wagon as town. On a cursory level I understand why but it's going to take more for me to nail down a read there one way or another.

[BlackVoid]

Okay but just saying that it's his "town-meta" doesn't help me gauge his alignment or yours. Can you explain in a few sentences what his town-meta is like?

[BlackVoid]

VOTE: BlueBloodedToffee

Feel better with my vote here. I think he's more likely to be scum than Rask for the reasons I gave earlier.

It's not so much process-of-elimination. Just an observation from my experience that early large wagons often tend to be town.

I get the logic there but I think it depends on the context. I can see scum jumping on an early partner-wagon to let it fall apart through paranoia. I can also see scum resisting early an town wagon for the opposite reason.

What do you think about the fact that the Rask-wagon dismantled so easily? Also, do you have a read on BBT?

[BlackVoid]

BV you are trying too hard i think;

Hey now, I gotta show off or else I'll have a hard time pocketing all the townies!

[BlackVoid]

What I mean is, does it look like you're trying hard because you're a tryhard or because you're scum who's having a slightly more difficult time of it than they expected? (Obviously this is a rhetorical question.)

Neither. I feel it's productive to talk about what I'm thinking and push the game forward. Are you against analyzing wagons in general, or do you just feel mine wasn't useful?

I'm going to stick with BBT. Why Victor over him?

[BlackVoid]

Desperation is a turn-off for the ladies. You gotta fine-tune your game, man.

Pedit: that was @cloudkicker

[BlackVoid]

@Sotty7, looking back, there are a few things I had trouble following from your wallpost. Clarify them for me when you get a chance:

I don't want to step on Hoopla's toes because gambits are the name of her game. I find her generally hard to get a read on in the early game so I tend to sort her town and let her out herself as scum as the game draws on. It helps that I value her as an extremely strong town player and would really like to tag team on this game if she is indeed town. Because of this I found Rask's initial case and vote on Hoopla weak, but most of it could be down to a lack of experience with her which could be understandable. However, Rask's vote remains despite Hoopla's reasonable responses to his points.

This reads to like you are saying that Rask's case on Hoopla is weak because Hoopla is an extremely strong town player. Unless you meant to write something and forgot, that doesn't really make sense. Can you rephrase?

I like BBT more for scum at this point. He came in with a vote on Rask to start a wagon, there were already two other players with two votes at the time Blackvoid and gm. It seems to be an attempt to sort Rask which comes quick and with no further elaboration. I would have expected more considering the history they both speak to. Feels like he started the wagon then panicked a little when it took off. I also remember BBTScum being very no nonsense cutting to the heart of the matter, were as townBBT being more open.

Unvote, Vote: BBT

In this scenario, are you arguing that Rask is BBT's partner or town that a scum-BBT hopped on to?

[BlackVoid]

I've got a fair few townreads cracked. Victor, GM, Rask, TwoFace, and Cloud.

Mostly waiting for content from the lurkpool. In the meantime, if anyone wants to discuss any of those reads with me, I can probably go into that.

[BlackVoid]

It's more that he sincerely believes he's in the right. I don't see what he has to gain as scum by manufacturing an accusation on you out of thin air, and then insisting that he's absolutely right to the point where he thinks two-face is scum for misrepresenting him. The BBT vote at the time was a plus too.

[BlackVoid]

He didn't explicitly say that. I'm talking about how he was insisting that your 201 doesn't make sense and how he was incredulous that your interpretation was different than his.

Scum have to act like they believe what they are saying. My point is that it doesn't look like an act to me.

[BlackVoid]

The exchange between Hoopla and Victor has me leaning town on Hoopla. I don't see the point in continuing to argue with TwoFace about Victor since it doesn't look like either of us are convincing the other. I'll come back to this if it becomes relevant after the game day advances and we have more information to go off of. For now, I'm going to focus elsewhere.

@Sotty7, I agree with you that Rask is town now and BBT might be scum. But I'm more interested in what you were thinking at that time so I can gauge

your

alignment. You said BBT pushed an early wagon and panicked. I want to know what your gut reaction was then. Whether you thought he was calling off a bus or got worried about being implicated in a quick mislynch. Perhaps it's playstyle but I find it hard to have scumreads be completely independent of anything else especially when they are based off of how two people interacted with each other.

Rask's first and third questions in the above post are good, I want to see them elaborated on as well.

I also want to discuss your read on TwoFace. He seems very town to me. Being so sure in his scumread of Victor that it blows his mind that I disagree with him is indicative of someone who truly believes their read. I don't think the lack of voting is indicative of much if his coin-flip gimmick is something he does across games. You were leading the BBT-wagon. Why switch over from BBT before he has a chance to react?

[BlackVoid]

@BlackVoid: if you could expand a bit on the townreads you listed in post #278, that would be great. Most of them are on players I currently have trouble reading, so knowing your thoughts there would be helpful to me.

I'm going to post this in pieces so it is not an insanely long wall.

I talked about Victor last night. TwoFace is town for similar reasons as Victor i.e believing in his push. Since then, his later posting cemented that read. I have a hard time seeing scum reacting to my Victor townread by essentially going "how can you

possibly

townread him? Mind blown!" I think that's the best I can explain it.

[BlackVoid]

There are about three reasons I'm reading GM as town.

Firstly, the way she's pushing BBT based on past games (along the lines of "I know you and you are better than this") came across as town. Scum tend to townread their "friends" because they'd be expected to know how to read them and it's easier to just correctly call them town.

Secondly, I like her point regarding Jaack. Jaack started off with "

if

there's scum on the Rask wagon" and then just assumed it to be true. I felt the POE from Jaack was premature.

Thirdly, from the back-and-forth with Victor, I agree with and understand GM's argument and I think her passion on pushing Victor is genuine. From more recent posts, the angry outbursts and swearing would be way over the top and unnecessary as scum. I think that's town that's genuinely mad that Victor isn't explaining himself.

[BlackVoid]

I was thinking Rask could be scum until he posted 209. Initially I agreed with Sotty7's BBT vote but not her reasons. The way Rask broke it down makes a ton of sense and is exactly the scenario I'm concerned about. I feel that BBT townread Rask simply because he thought he was expected to read him as town based on past experience. My BBT scumread is sort of like the inverse of my GoodMorning townread (he's townreading his friend Rask way too quickly). Rask's post also made me go back and re-read Sotty7's posting more closely. I tend to find that people who give compelling enough reasons to make me rethink reads are usually town.

[BlackVoid]

My reasoning for Cloud is a bit counter-intuitive. It is based on him insisting that his "townslip" made him not scum with IAI. When scum fake a townslip, they plan it out and the action is deliberate. I think someone who would go around planting fake townslips would also be suave enough to let the town

find

these townslips on their own for maximum cred. On the other hand, I can easily see town thinking they townslipped and having a "hey guys, look I townslipped, haha" reaction.

[BlackVoid]

@Michel, did you want me to explain my Hoopla-read as well or just those five?

Now my turn. Talk to me about your read on Sotty7 and MariaR, especially the former. Those are the two active players I don't have a townread on.

[BlackVoid]

Did you scumread BBT first or did he scumread you first and then you pushed back?

[BlackVoid]

Yeah, it's important. It's definitely possible for scum to push people they've played with before if the circumstances warrant it or if they are just omgus'ing.

But a push right at the beginning when there were so many other options wouldn't be a good idea - unless you are an extraordinarily ballsy scum player. That's what I was trying to figure out.

[BlackVoid]

What's your take on Sotty's and BBT's pushed on each other?

[BlackVoid]

I meant BlueBloodedToffee. I was asking what you thought of Sotty7 and him pushing each other (what it says about either of their alignments). I'm still trying to figure it out.

[BlackVoid]

Greatest Player of all time thread. Yeah, I saw that too. I almost think if Sotty7 were goat-level scum, I'd be reading her as town.

@Sotty7, what would you say is your biggest strength and weakness as scum?

[BlackVoid]

@BBT, was your early Rask townread a genuine one or were you testing for reactions? Upon re-reading, you criticize at least two of his posts and question MariaR's read there. Where did

your

townread on Rask come from?

You accuse MariaR of buddying Sotty7 as well as fence-sitting on her, both of which imply that Sotty7 is town. How are you okay with either one for a lynch? I know you are voting MariaR but you did say you'd be happy to lynch either.

As an aside, I completely agree with MariaR that while the first part of Sotty7's 119 looked like BS, I also thought Sotty7's vote on you in that same post was good. I don't find it scummy.

Read through the latest posts (I agree with Rask). BBT's and Sotty's interactions don't make much sense especially how BBT is accusing one of his scumreads of buddying the other which lets him push MariaR while having Sotty7 as a secondary suspect. But if he's SO confident on MariaR as he's claiming to be, he shouldn't be having Sotty7 as a scumread at all.

[BlackVoid]

Again, aware this is a wild really out-there theory but thinking of such things is just far more exciting than taking it slow.

I have an out-there theory to top your out-there theory. BBT, Sotty7, and MariaR are all scum. BBT pushing MariaR so he can clear both himself and Sotty7 upon her lynch (she was "buddying" Sotty7) and coast the rest of the game, while also sewing in distancing interactions with Sotty7 in case she gets lynched first. It's out-there but I have a fairly narrow pool of suspects given my six townreads and all three of them are in it.

I do think Jaack has a decent chance of being scum though. He's flown below the radar a lot.

[BlackVoid]

@BV Lol, I actually thought about that but it was starting to go too far for even me. I kind of wish you didn't mention that actually.

Yeah, I think I should have waited for them to dig into their stances a bit more but what's done is done.

Sotty7 wagon seems a lot more viable than BBT at this point.

VOTE: Sotty7

To be clear, I actually think it's likely BBT and Sotty7 are partners. The MariaR theory was me just brainstorming although I wouldn't necessarily rule it out.

@MariaR, your vote on BBT ("I'll unvote after you do this specific thing") was very odd. Is this explicit stating that the vote is for pressure normal for you?

[BlackVoid]

@BV The thing is, looking at just the facts, BBT's push on maria is still reasonable. Maria's response isn't usual if you compare to most players but not really out of line with her usual omgusy/reactive style.
It's at this point still possible one of my townreads will do something to make me reconsider them, cloud I'm fading a bit on and furthermore IAI isn't even ingame.

I'm still not entirely sure BBT is scum even if sotty is. Problem is that individually, if you throw out associations he's more null than a scumread to me.

I do think that BBT's argument that MariaR showed up to complain about the Rask wagon while not commenting on anything else was a valid one. But I didn't like his accusation that MariaR was fencesitting on Sotty7 because I had the exact same reaction as MariaR did to Sotty7's post.

Besides that, he made two separate accusations: He accused MariaR of fencesitting on Sotty7 in the event a wagon takes off. This implies that Sotty7 is town and MariaR is looking to opportunistically join that wagon. He also accused MariaR of trying to "sync" her reads with Sotty7 which is a buddying accusation which also only makes sense with Sotty7-town.

While I can buy that some people have reads independent of everything else, the bulk of BBT's MariaR suspicion seems to be based on how she played around Sotty7. So, it's unbelievable for me that he's happy to lynch either one. Do you think BBT's reads seem consistent?

Oh, and I also thought one stray comment from MariaR about Rask-wagon isn't something that would make BBT so confident that she's scum that he's deadset on her lynch.

[BlackVoid]

How is my wagon more viable? I still can't believe we're trying to call partners day one with no flips. I don't get it. Is bussing still that rampant on the site?

You have more votes on you so more viable. If BBT is more viable, I'll move there. You two are tied as my top two scumreads.

I haven't been on the site very long so I can't speak to how rampant it was before. But I recently completed a large theme game (Dragon Age Mafia) where I replaced in as confirmed town in 3-player lylo. The entire scumteam bussed the hell out of each other. I correctly called them out on hard-bussing and voted the last scum, Vedith.

I have a hard time getting into the mindset of people who develop reads in a vacuum. I'll have to check if this is normal for you. Reads are dependent on one another. This is proven when you say MariaR is town

purely

because BBT is pushing her. So, you ARE using your existing reads to develop associations. I don't know why you have an issue with me doing that.

[BlackVoid]

Black, you're misunderstanding the bulk of my Maria scum read.

Okay then, help me out here. What's the bulk of your MariaR read based on?

[BlackVoid]

[quote="In post 479, Sotty7"][/quote]
A quick list of reads before you go wouldn't hurt.

[BlackVoid]

@Sotty7, the only thing you said about Michel was that's he's town for the PSA-style declaration in his opening post. Do you have an opinion on his later posting?

[BlackVoid]

I am too although competing scum wagons are actually a pretty bad idea since they tend to divide the town. If one of them is town, then that's good.

Is BBT/Sotty7 a pairing that you are ruling out?

[BlackVoid]

Hoopla, when you get a chance, explain why Michel is such a strong townread for you. I've also seen his posting be a voice of reason but as far as alignment is concerned, he's null to me. The only thing you mentioned was the PSA-style declaration which you said you've only seen in his towngames. Do you have an opinion of his later posting?

[BlackVoid]

@Jaack, how was I "parroting" what someone else said in my 323? I don't recall anyone making those points about GM. If they have, go ahead and quote them for me.

I agree that 456 was me agreeing with Rask about Sotty and BBT being scum, potentially together. But if agreeing with someone else is scummy to you, how didn't it affect your read on Hoopla when she said she noticed the same thing I did? Also, I had suspicions of both BBT and Sotty7 much before Rask brought up his theory so I'm not understanding how you interpreted that as parroting Rask.

Why is BBT town?

[BlackVoid]

Okay. Another thing I wondered about your list: you mention me as being competent enough to fake things convincingly. What are you basing this off of?

In the game you linked of Michel's, he won a four-player endgame with players that were actually competently analyzing the game and was a fairly universal townread. That shows he's competent at playing scum. If you have "tinges of paranoia" about me, what makes you confident enough about Michel where you think he can't fake his level of play?

[BlackVoid]

@Sotty7, while you are here, can you talk about your read on Hoopla? When there was a wagon developing on you, you said that she was starting to fall back into null/scum. That came out of the blue. What prompted that? You also didn't seem to show any interest in trying to read her earlier. When she voted you, it was just sadness. Can you go over your entire progression of your read there, where it started, how it changed and what your read is now, and talk about what specific posts caused these changes?

[BlackVoid]

@GM, why do you prefer Sotty7 to BBT?

[BlackVoid]

My progression was what has hoopla done lately. I said in my post 471 that I felt like she was treading water. She did her gambit, she got her reactions but nothing really came of it. She went back and forth with victor that didn't yeild much then switched to me. I think it was rask who asked her if she was going to pressure me but nothing really came from it execpt when she said she wasn't joking with her vote. She was engaging with me but on a very light scale. That's why I poked and downgraded my read

Okay. Can you also go over your reads on GM and Jaack? I have a few thoughts on them but want to see what you thought before saying. Specifically, regarding GM's interaction with BBT, and Jaack's initial vote on you.

[BlackVoid]

@GM, upon re-read, there are a ton of things about you that caught my attention which I missed the first time around that I want to discuss. Your read on BBT is a little weird in retrospect. You say you expect better from him as early as page five. Then, you say that BBT was at least better than Victor for spending time on his Rask read. But all BBT had done up till that point was pressure Rask, back off and call him town for no reason. I can't see how he was better than Victor here especially since you seem to expect more from him.

Then there's your take on the competing wagons of BBT and Sotty7. You spent the early game throwing suspicion at BBT but he always takes a backseat for you, first behind Victor, now behind Sotty7. I dislike everything about your 528. You quote posts of BBT where he says he needs time to invest in the game and call it an okay answer. If someone is inactive, it already means that they don't have time for the game. BBT showing up and saying that is a very mundane answer and I don't understand what you found okay about it. You even go so far as to tell Victor to "leave off Toffee" which makes zero sense given Toffee is a scumread for you.

Why do you even suspect Sotty7 anyways? I don't think you've given any reason for it. Given BBT is explicitly a scumread for you, I find your preference of the Sotty7 wagon highly suspect.

I also have a hard time understanding your townread on me. You call me town early but then cast suspicion on me for "trying too hard." You make a few vague accusations that you don't fully explain. Can you tell me what you meant in 161 and 224? After that, I call you town and then there's no mention at all about my previous "tryharding," you just townread me back. It looks like you think you can pocket me because I was townreading you and there's no progression there that makes sense from a town POV. I found it odd that you refute my townread on you despite reading me as town. Your other reads (like on TwoFace for not getting a joke) also feel really weak.

At this point, I don't feel comfortable at all with the Sotty7 wagon although I want Sotty7's answers to my questions anyways. I think it was useful for providing information and stances. I'm going to hop off and

VOTE: goodmorning

[BlackVoid]

Regarding Jaack, yeah I felt he was a bit too comfortable with voteparking your wagon based off of the "IF there's one scum on the Rask wagon, it's Sotty7" theory which isn't even necessarily true and he hasn't re-assessed or commented on your posts since then.

Regarding GM, sure give me more details when you get a chance. I don't disagree that her posts had substance but her stances with regard to you/BBT and Victor/BBT seem scummy to me.

Who do you think are BBT's most likely partners?

[BlackVoid]

My current guess for the scumteam is goodmorning, BBT, and Jaack.

I saw Michel's reasoning earlier that BBT and Jaack wouldn't launch a co-ordinated attack on Sotty7 so early on. But BBT followed Jaack onto Sotty7 which is important. If he is a ballsy scum player like Rask mentioned, I can totally see him agreeing with his partner and following him just for the wifom value.

[BlackVoid]

@GM, I still find your read on Sotty7 weak. Lynching active players for the associatives is cop-out reasoning. Active players are more useful later on. I also initially disliked Sotty7's reaction to TwoFace but her thoughtfulness in trying to see if she was tunneling rang town. Besides, I took at a glance at Team Mafia scumgame she referred to and her activity level here is around triple that. Furthermore, if you know BBT has slow starts, why would you scumread him so early in the game? Given you dislike both my and Sotty7's pushes on BBT, what was

your

reasoning for scumreading him?

With that said, it looks like BBT is play for today. Hopefully we can L-1 a wagon and get a claim to assess before getting too close to the deadline. Victor, MariaR, you should join me.

VOTE: BlueBloodedToffee

[BlackVoid]

Yeah, I think vigging IAI is a pretty horrible idea. If he's been busy irl and hasn't posted till now, it makes sense that once he posts more, we should be able to get a read on him. So far, his two scumreads match nicely with mine which is enough to give a slight townlean. If anyone should be vigged for low contribution, it should be Jaack.

Not impressed with GreyICE's posting at all. Don't like the Victor scumread or the call to vig IAI. Both seem like easy targets given Victor got pressure early on and IAI never posted. I have a stronger scumread on GreyICE than Jaack, and he's also a bigger wagon so I don't see any reason to dismantle it to go after Jaack. I'm keeping my vote here.

[BlackVoid]

I don't mind getting him to post more content. But asking for content is a whole lot different than suggesting that he be vigged. I think he is spot on with his suspicion of GreyICE and possibly Jaack. He said he's been legitimately busy irl which is different from calculated lurking. Now that he's here and posts, both his scumreads align with mine. Why exactly should we vig him when there's an expectation that he'll contribute more?

[BlackVoid]

@Hoopla, I don't see GreyICE or Jaack as "easy targets." I'm reading them as scum. From a recent game that just completed (Biker Wars), I think GreyICE is loud, vocal, and capable. I don't think scum would want to bus him because he'd be the one in it for the long haul.

GreyICE's posting hasn't given me townvibes. He townreads every strong player in the game and then talks about how he's missing things. In Biker Wars, he mentioned that he liked pushing strong players who are flaky because he knows he's slated for death early on. In the Team Mafia game I had glanced through earlier, GreyICE caught Sotty7 very early in the game and strongarmed a push on her. Here, he attacks Victor who is town, suggests a vig (or lynch) on IAI, muses about how he's probably townreading a strong player (Michel) and does nothing about it. Michel has been pretty inactive. If GreyICE truly suspected that something was up, he'd be pushing him for reactions trying to get a read and see what shakes out. I don't see any of it.

When IAI has the same scumreads as me, I'm more inclined to believe IAI is town and "gets it" than that he's scum, and my entire view of the game is flawed. That I should chuck it out and start anew because a guy who was too busy to post during the first week of the game has now caught up and agreed with me.

[BlackVoid]

They would only be "easy targets" if they are

town

. But I'm not reading either as town.

I think IAI has caught up given he gave us his reads. I also think different people have different playstyles and not everyone is going to make a list of reads detailing their thoughts. Of the reads he did give us, I agree with them. I'm fine with waiting a while to let him engage in the game real time, take stances, interact with people and contribute. That's different from throwing him around as a vig target.

[BlackVoid]

Interesting that you read Biker Wars, and yet are willing to dismiss me so lightly.

I haven't dismissed you. I think if you are town, it's good for town. If you are scum, it's good for scum. I'm reading your slot as scum.

I'm happy to discuss your reads although it's going to take a lot to change my mind here. Your read on goodmorning is the one I'm most curious about. I have her as likely scum with your slot based on interactions with BBT.

[BlackVoid]

Grey, you should start scumreading yourself and Jack. I think it might change BlackVoid's mind.

He's already scumreading Jaack which just leaves himself. Maybe add in a dash of goodmorning, a sprinkle of MariaR, and a slice of Rask and we're good to go!

[BlackVoid]

@Grey, I think GM's point on Jaack was a good one but that was an exception. It was one of the reasons I was townreading her for earlier. But her reads on BBT and Sotty7 are shifty regardless of your alignment. She started out scumreading BBT, then was okay with a completely boring answer from BBT and then said she prefers the Sotty7 wagon. Detailed version is in 565. By the way, have you caught up? I thought if you were caught up enough to have reads on the entire playerlist, you'd notice my wall on GM.

Victor is explained in 281 and 284. Your case assumes that every town that gets townread uses that to "smash home wagons on scum" which is playstyle-dependent, not alignment. I fully agree with him that IAI shouldn't be vigged. IAI literally mentioned that he had business in NYC, etc during the first week of the game. Interpreting that to mean "lurker" is uncharitable unless you think he's lying about it. Now that he's here and caught up, I assume he'll get engaged and people can get an actual read on him. That's very different from the idea of shooting "useless lurkers."

[BlackVoid]

So, the more I think about this, GM is probably town. I do like her points on Jaack and I think the emotional push on Victor looked townish which means my scumteam theory is probably wrong. There was also something about the way Jaack was grilling MariaR that gave me townvibes.

Making a note to myself to look at Grey/Rask/Hoopla interactions. All of them are weird and there might be something there. The Rask/Hoopla early game cases on each other + Rask voting Sotty7 after he called her scum with BBT and then defending GreyICE + Hoopla's unvote of an L-1 wagon with intent to hammer. There's something there and I need to figure out if that's the team. That's my new working theory.

[BlackVoid]

@Hoopla, I've been thinking about this game during the downtime and am going back and forth on you. I'd love it if you can help me understand your recent play.

As far as I can tell, you are townreading Michel, and Sotty7, maybe me and Victor. You are scumreading GM, TwoFace, and Jaack. Sotty7 has been consistently pushed as a counterwagon to the BBT-slot by your scumreads. So, how are you saying that the BBT/GreyICE wagon is going through without resistance when all your scumreads are either on the Sotty7 counterwagon or said that they would join it?

You also said having time to assess a claim is good. But to get claims, you need to put someone at L-1 with intent to hammer. If you unvote because you are afraid of a hammer, you won't get claims so I found that counterproductive because you'd be delaying a claim from someone that the majority including you agreed was a good wagon.

[BlackVoid]

I'm coming around to a townread on Jaack after a close re-read of his ISO so I'll try and explain where I'm coming from. I can only remember two main reasons he's being suspected. For playing under the radar, and for not engaging Sotty7 while he has a vote on her.

I took a glance through the four completed town games on his wiki. When he's town, he posts at roughly 20-25 posts a week. His posting rate here isn't unusual for him and fits right in with the level of activity we can expect from him. So, that's null.

Now, for his Sotty7 vote. I found that Jaack in general doesn't actively spend a lot of time and effort pushing his scumreads. He's content leaving his vote in what he thinks is a good place and just responding to questions if they ask him any. So, that's null too.

Others are welcome to glance through his nicely updated wiki to prove me wrong.

As for why I'm townreading him, he gives me the impression that he's putting scumhunting over his own survival and isn't afraid to draw attention to himself.

It seems strange to me that there has been as much discussion about BBT with his lack of content, particularly when he is not alone in said lack of content. (particularly I Am Innocent, but also sort of myself and Michel)

I don't see the point of reminding us all that's he's been flying under the radar and putting himself in the spotlight.

I think cloud is going a bit under the radar as of late. A lot of people seem to be willing to write off his actions as playstyle, but reading through this iso, it seems like he's been trying way to hard to assert himself as an important part of the town while simultaneously acting trolly. I'm not really sure here, but I'm feeling he's scummier than people have been treating him as of late.

I think scum would be a lot more cautious about saying that Cloud was flying under the radar. Because it sounds hypocritical and is likely to get a "so are you" response. But I think he is genuinely worried that town are letting Cloud slip by and he's not going to let that slide.

Now regarding myself, I think it's notable that there has been a lot of interest in me as a scum candidate in the past couple of pages, but no one is willing to cast the first vote. Of course now that I say that someone will probably cheekily quote this section and vote me.

I think a post like this just invites votes. When I saw him post this, I thought

someone

would quote this post and vote him. And MariaR did. He then proceeds to engage MariaR and question her. I think a vote here would have risked a likely wagon that would have been hard to shake off. He's making risky plays so he could scumhunt at a time when he's on the verge of being flashwagoned to a lynch.

As for the shade on me, I get it. I screwed up by being lazy and not participating for a good section of this game. If I get lynched for it that's on me.

Given people's reasoning for lynching him is partly because we don't lose much if we're wrong, this just makes it more likely that he gets lynched because he's absolving us from blame. It felt sincere to me.

All these quotes show me that he doesn't mind drawing attention to himself and risking being voted. Not only that, he's been steadfastly townreading his other counterwagon GreyICE even after a Sotty7 lynch became more and more unlikely.

Finally, I'm not comfortable with the inevitability of a Jaack lynch. Regardless of alignment, Sotty7 and GreyICE have people strongly townreading them or refusing to lynch them. Jaack doesn't have that. He's been fairly low-key, and no one has been willing to bat for him particularly hard. So when deadline comes, people from both camps will likely "compromise" on him when they can't get their first choice lynch. I think he's town and I want to open up that discussion before it's too late.

[BlackVoid]

What do you think about his back and forth with Maria when she has her vote on him asking her why she didn't "engage him"?

I'm not sure what are asking. Can you rephrase this?

In other news, I was hoping to get your take on Rask since we see eye to eye on GreyICE/BBT. I think he's the most likely partner. Can you also explain your townread on MariaR?

I'm also curious whether you think I'm missing something so commenting on my reads as a whole would be nice, especially the null reads. I think the third partner to GreyICE and Rask is in there. I just can't figure out who yet.

Reads

Town: Victor, IAI, Sotty7, TwoFace, goodmorning, Jaack, Cloud
Null: Hoopla, MariaR, Michel's slot
Scum: GreyICE, Rask

[BlackVoid]

The way Rask and Hoopla are interacting with GreyICE makes me think I'm wrong about him. I'm going to do a thought experiment and look at it from a GreyICE-town standpoint. I still like my theory that Hoopla/Rask interactions with each other look very fake.

UNVOTE:

[BlackVoid]

@GreyICE, okay let's talk. I'm assuming you are town. From my previous list, I'm still townreading Victor, IAI, TwoFace, goodmorning, Jaack, and Cloud. I need to think on Sotty7 a little but probably town. I think MariaR is unlikely to be partnered with Hoopla so conditionally town.

That leaves Hoopla, Rask, and MichelSableheart's slot who I think is the scumteam if you are town. Is there a reason you have Rask as such strong town? Quite frankly, I don't think a passing comment from Rask about him changing his playstyle is a towntell. All he said was "

Disclaimer, I'm on a loss streak and I'm going to be changing my style here a bit.

" That's nowhere near as big as you are saying it is and is probably something he planned to do no matter what alignment he drew.

As for why I suspect him (this also answers MariaR's question): I think a lot of his early play feels contrived. After the wagon formed on him, he went through each vote dissecting them when it was basically a semi-RVS wagon. So early in the game, it didn't make sense to go through each vote as opposed to just pushing whoever he thought was scum. It looked like he was trying to do the towny thing and "analyze" the votes on him.

I know you start skimming once you townread someone but I really think Rask's early posts are worth a close read. Look at his Hoopla push in 70. It's entirely nonsensical. Hoopla never justified a vote on him based on associatives. I think he's overselling his Hoopla scumread. 92 is a bit of a stretch. "Am I in the twilight zone" looked fake in context. His complaints about Hoopla's playstyle also seem overdone.

I think Sotty7 is right that once Rask got townread, he faded out, not to mention he seemed to completely forget his scumread on Hoopla which suddenly resurfaced.

What does he do now? He white-knighted you over the past couple of days. But when your wagon stalled at a critical point and it didn't look like it would go through without his support, he floats paranoia about how good you are and how he could be wrong. He is setting up to vote you closer to deadline while giving lip-service to Hoopla to appease you. But his vote ultimately falls on Victor who I'm reading as town. So, what am I missing? By the way, I think you are tunneling a bit on Victor and IAI. If they are town, who's scum?

[BlackVoid]

@BV: I'm still completely baffled by your IAI tr.

IAI has pinned all his credibility on GreyICE flipping scum. He's putting all his eggs in one basket and going for broke. The only reason scum would do such a thing either late-game for a crucial mislynch, or if they are backed into a corner in a 1v1. Neither is the case here. If he were scum, there are other options like Victor, Sotty7, and Jaack. They can't all be scum with him. When he started posting, he had a clean slate and could push pretty much anywhere he wanted. He could have built up a reputation to look pro-town. But as early as D1, he went all in, and bet his heart and soul and everything else on this GreyICE scumflip. He thinks he's going to be vindicated and all the antagonism that he's gathered this day phase will be set right.

That's

something I can't see scum faking and I don't think that in this context, and at this time, it makes sense for scum to do that.

[BlackVoid]

I find it hard to believe that every single one of your suspects are people that are voting you. It reads as if you are trying not to antagonize anyone that's townreading you. I don't think Rask looks town. I don't think MariaR looks town. She's making similar arguments to Hoopla which basically comes down to "any wagon with support is a town wagon because if it was a scum wagon, it wouldn't have support." That's a bit of a circular argument. She wasn't even townreading you so the opposition to the wagon is weird. Same with Rask. He had you as null and then started casting around for wagons elsewhere. Why are you townreading them?

[BlackVoid]

@Sotty7, since you seem so sure GreyICE is scum, you are not concerned about any of the players trying to derail his wagon? As for my reads, I'll break this down by player.

Jaack: He was hypocritical but I don't think hypocrisy is scummy. What do you think about the points I made in 817?

Rask: See 883. He started this conspiracy theory about you and BBT being partners, then voted you over BBT. When the BBT/GreyICE wagon picked up, his response is to do anything he can to derail it. Undecided on whether he's doing it for towncred or saving his partner because he has the influence to do it. 209, 437, and 467 look like a BBT-partner.

MariaR: Really dislike the constant refrain of "if GreyICE is town, doesn't it bother anyone that there isn't a counterwagon." It seems like a twisted argument because she's

using

that to

create

a counterwagon. We could flip the question and ask why there's so much resistance to the GreyICE wagon that we've got first you, then Jaack, then Victor as counterwagons. Looks like a pathos-driven argument that's coming from someone who wants to push an agenda.

TwoFace: The way he's pushing his reads, first Victor, now you. TwoFace being so sure that you are scum that he's close to the point of giving up looks sincere to me and his worldview of a Sotty7-based scumteam and frustration with the counterwagons makes sense.

[BlackVoid]

So, I have townreads on Victor, IAI, TwoFace, goodmorning, Cloud, and Jaack. Possibly Sotty7. My scumpool is among Hoopla, MariaR, MichelSableheart, GreyICE, and Rask. GreyICE is the only one who seems viable and if it's a choice between Victor and him, I want to flip GreyICE.

VOTE: GreyICE

Back here. That's L-1.

[BlackVoid]

I don't agree that no counterwagon has come up. GreyICE/BBT have been major suspects for much of the game but there have always been alternatives. It's always been hard to get a wagon on him and keep it there. First Sotty7 cropped up as a counterwagon to BBT. When it seemed like it wouldn't go through, the Jaack flashwagon idea was thrown around and received quite a bit of support until I made a town-case on him. Now there's a rallying cry to lynch anyone other than GreyICE, and Victor looked like the newest target. The thing is, it's been ridiculously hard to push this wagon because of how much resistance there is to it. You, TwoFace, Jaack, Rask, GM, and to some extent Hoopla have all tried to derail in a number of ways on a number of other people. You weren't even townreading GreyICE when you made the argument so I'm confused why you are so against it.

[BlackVoid]

Hey, every wagon that crops up in response to our preferred wagon is a scum-driven counterwagon, right? To be fair, we all think like that.

But MariaR wasn't even townreading BBT/GreyICE or pushing another wagon. She's opposing the wagon for the heck of it.

[BlackVoid]

You're dying.

Thanks for the heads up. I'll be sure to post final thoughts before you use your factional nightkill on me

[BlackVoid]

I'm not entirely optimistic about a GreyICE scumflip although I'm still going to vote him over Victor or IAI. I think we should discuss where we all are at, and who we'd be willing to lynch. Even if we decide not to shuffle the wagons, it'll be good info to look back on for later days.

Hoopla's latest posts give me townvibes despite her insistence that they are null. In fact, I don't like any of the options GreyICE is pushing as they're all more towny than him which makes me feel like I'm backed into a corner. IAI and Victor seem pretty set on GreyICE too so I don't know if I'll get their support elsewhere.

I'm feeling ambivalent about Sotty7. The TwoFace and Jaack reads feel reactionary and don't resonate with me at all. I suppose it could be town locked in a tunnel but the way she was trying to get out of the tunnel looked town. By the way TwoFace, I don't think Hoopla is partnered with Sotty7. She switched from Sotty7 to BBT and then talked about how she was fascinated at how these competing wagons will develop. She's basically setting herself up to look bad from VCA in later days. @Sotty7, I explained Cloud read in 325. Since then, his playing up his scumgame looked town too.

I'd happily lynch MariaR, my top choice. Could go for Rask or Michel's slot too.

[BlackVoid]

GreyICE is probably my third choice after MariaR and Rask. One thing from Michel that I townread was his saying he was going to look through the game keeping my reads in mind. That could be buddying but asking for help is something I see town do more often. It's weak though and it wouldn't shock me if he was scum. GreyICE flip would help me read Sotty7 better I think.

@Mod,

Cloud unvoted in 815 by the way.

[BlackVoid]

By the time they solidified for me as stronger scumreads than GreyICE, it was too late for pressure votes and I didn't think I could get enough people on there.

You were scumreading MariaR earlier. Are you still? If five people commit to switching I'll vote her. I'm sure someone will hammer.

[BlackVoid]

@TwoFace, how do you feel about MariaR right now?

[BlackVoid]

So, I'm finding it hard to pin down confident scumreads even though I have good, solid townreads that I believe in. I'll try and work out where I am currently.

I have six townreads that I haven't really doubted for a while: Victor, IAI, TwoFace, goodmorning, Cloud, and Jaack. That leaves six others. Here's a table of interactive tells:

Player	GreyICE	Rask	MariaR	Sotty7	Creature	Hoopla
GreyICE	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Rask	Probable	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
MariaR	Probable	Unlikely	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Sotty7	Eliminate	Probable	Probable	N/A	N/A	N/A
Creature	Probable	Probable	Likely	Probable	N/A	N/A
Hoops	Eliminate	Probable	Eliminate	Unlikely	Unlikely	N/A

Hoopla is not a read I have no doubts about because I do. However:

• I eliminate Hoopla/GreyICE because their antagonism in their little back-and-forth was understated which points against scum theater.
  
• I eliminate Hoopla/MariaR for being too in-sync about their "worry" that there was no counter to the Grey wagon.
  
• I think Hoopla/Sotty7 is unlikely because Hoopla switched to BBT to make it a competing wagon and then blatantly said that the competing wagons will give us good info for later. I think this will be a sticking point because TwoFace is arguing that they are partners. But Hoopla might as well be setting up her own lynch down the line with her play here.
  
• I think Hoopla/Creature is unlikely because Creature replaced in, found Hoopla's readslist and used that as a basis for his reads.

Unless Hoopla is deviously good at laying false interactions, she can't be scum with any of my not-townreads. Besides that I think she hit a few town notes in her back-and-forths with Victor and GreyICE that supplement this read.

I think Rask/MariaR is unlikely because of passing comments that Rask is making such as telling her Jaack is town if he dies and commenting on how her read on me is bad. I put MariaR as a likely partner to Creature because Michel threw out some random associatives tying her to BBT and voted BBT.

If GreyICE is town, the scumteam pretty much

has

to be Sotty7, Creature, and one of MariaR or Rask. My bets are on MariaR.

MariaR, Sotty7, Creature.

I think the sticking point is that a whole lot of people are just not buying why Victor and IAI are town so I'll get to work on that soon.

[BlackVoid]

By the by, Blackvoid, what do you think of this?

I don't think it's scummy of him to change his reads. I'm somewhat annoyed because your last few posts have looked town but I still think Victor has been more town throughout the game and I also have a townread on IAI. If it's you vs Victor or any of my townreads, then I'd rather flip you. But I still hope you come around to helping me lynch someone in my scumpool.

I don't understand why you townread MariaR or Sotty7.

[BlackVoid]

By the way, if GreyICE does flip scum (which is possible but I wouldn't put particularly high odds on), then MariaR and Creature are still his most likely partners with Rask as a distant outside shot. Basically, I'm saying MariaR and Creature are scum either way. I'd go 50/50 on GreyICE/Sotty7.

[BlackVoid]

Okay, Creature is scum. He tried to quickhammer GreyICE (though his predecessor had his vote there already so he blew it). I don't get how he goes from {Victor, Jaack, IAI, Sotty, goodmorning} to "Okay, I don't oppose GI wagon." after GreyICE's towniest posts nor do I think he would "hammer" before getting any reads with more than 24 hours on the clock.

Can we lynch Creature? I think he panicked when I said he was scum with Sotty7 and MariaR.

[BlackVoid]

I already knew my predecessor had his vote on GreyICE.

Then why would cast a redundant vote?

[BlackVoid]

Okay, it might be nothing. It's 4:30 AM for me and I don't know why I suddenly woke up in the middle of the night and checked this game. But what made you suddenly change your read on GreyICE?

[BlackVoid]

Reading over I don't see how Creature's posts make any sense.

He started off with townreading GreyICE, then said that he doesn't oppose the wagon which looked like he read through and changed his mind. Than said he'd probably get better reads the following day and "hammered." After I pointed it out, he said he was townreading GreyICE all along and the hammer was to look for "reactions."

I don't know if I buy that it was a reaction fake-hammer though. It looked like he saw that Cloud was not going to hammer anytime soon, decided that he wanted a GreyICE lynch, faked a change of heart, and tried to hammer and end the day. Then backtracked when it failed.

Am I getting worked up over nothing?

[BlackVoid]

The last VC in 997 still shows "MichelSableheart" voting GreyICE, not Creature. He could have made a mistake and thought his slot wasn't on the wagon.

[BlackVoid]

VOTE: Sotty7

I think Sotty7 and MariaR make the most sense as scum. I'd like to see Creature, goodmorning, and Cloud participate more today.

[BlackVoid]

Okay. Here's my problem. You had three major scumreads on D1:

#1 GreyICE/BBT who you voted on page five. As it turns out, a viable wagon developed on that slot, you kept your vote there and pushed until he got lynched. I never got the impression that you were actually trying to read him or wonder if you may be wrong. If you were so sure, it's doubly concerning that you never once suspect anyone that was trying to derail the wagon (Rask and MariaR come to mind).

#2 TwoFace who was obvtown but suspected you so you reacted by suspecting him back.

#3 Jaack - same deal although he wasn't as obvtown.

Your suspicions are based simply around whoever pushes you. Two of them flipped town and my bets are on Jaack being town as well. Your reads have fluctuated a small amount but for the most part have been fairly static. So far, I haven't found any of your reads to be compelling or insightful.

[BlackVoid]

The above post was at Sotty7.

[BlackVoid]

@Sotty7, I'm not saying you didn't attract widespread suspicion. But TwoFace and Jaack were the ones who were pushing you the hardest, and also the ones who were simply not considering any other option or second-guessing themselves. Those are the kinds of players I

love

to push as scum. Because the others, they might change their reads, and be manipulable.

You did take a brief detour onto TwoFace before coming back to BBT, that's true. That doesn't take away from my point that most of your D1 play was you pushing BBT/GreyICE. GreyICE was towntelling hard at the end of the day. How didn't you notice that? There were times where I almost wanted to unvote.

I don't understand why you are giving MariaR a pass, at all. Is she a townread and why?

[BlackVoid]

Alright, let's talk about MariaR. Give me more than "tone and interactions with Jaack." You said the same thing in 902 ("interactions with Jaack and general tone"). What does that really mean? You are going to have to dumb this down for me a bit because it's apparently going over my head.

I think she's scum because of how she reacted to the GreyICE wagon. She never stated a townread on GreyICE. She never stated a strong scumread elsewhere. Just kept going "why isn't anyone bothered by the lack of counterwagon?" Then a Victor wagon comes up and she joins it. It looked like she knew GreyICE was town and was looking to cast doubt on the wagoners by creating artificial "resistance" to the wagon so that the ones of the wagon will push it harder. I touched on this earlier and you agreed with me in 916. Did anything change since then? I think she wanted to set up two town counterwagons so that she has a target for D2 as well.

I don't disagree with anything you said about Rask actually. I want to see where that goes. There were a couple of small things I thought looked town like him telling MariaR that Jaack is town if he dies but nothing that rules him out as scum for me.

[BlackVoid]

@GM, why MariaR town? What happened to your Sotty7 scumread from D1?

[BlackVoid]

And you have less posts than everyone besides Jaack.

[BlackVoid]

Hate to interrupt but I haven't posted for more than a day so here are my token busywork questions to make it look like I'm doing something:

@GM, how do you feel about the idea of lynching Sotty7?

Besides IAI, who do you suspect and who are your townreads?

[BlackVoid]

interestingly, you will find the answers to these questions in my iso

Actually I read your ISO before I asked. I have a vague idea of some of your reads. I'm asking because I want you to commit to clear positions and so I can get an idea of which read is stronger than the other.

You said D1 that you were scumreading BBT but didn't want to forget Victor, but then decided that you liked the Sotty7 wagon more than BBT and said you'll move there. Then you stayed on Victor and never brought up Sotty7 again. It's all a bit confusing and I'd like some clarity going forward.

[BlackVoid]

hat looks to me like you read the first ~10-15 and skimmed the rest. I'll go through when I get home and do some nice quoting for you though.

I don't care for quotes. I want to see where you are at now. Just telling me what your reads are would be nice.

It's not that you haven't posted your reads. It's that I don't know which reads are stronger than others. I want to see

relative

reads, not absolute ones.

[BlackVoid]

Alright, I'm bored, I'll take pity:
Strong Town: Raskolnikov, BlackVoid, MariaR
Weak Town: Jaack, CloudKicker
Scum: Hoopla, VictorDeAngelo, I Am Innocent, Sotty7

idek: Creature

Scum are in No Particular Order but note where my vote currently is. That Hoopla post was the single scummiest thing to come from anyone this entire game.

Yeah, I wasn't a fan of that Hoopla post either although I felt Sotty7's D1 play had almost no town motivation. I'm considering whether TwoFace was killed because he had Sotty7/Hoopla pegged as a team as opposed to me who argued that they weren't partnered.

I've actually come around to a townread on Creature. Jaack is still town for me. Even more so if Sotty7 is scum. I don't agree with you on Victor and IAI.

Thanks for this post. It reasssured me that my earlier townread on you was right. I was starting to get concerned.

The only people I don't have townreads on are Sotty7, MariaR, Hoopla, and Rask.

[BlackVoid]

Wait, I seem to have glossed over this but the last thing you said about me was that I could be scum and then you have me in your top town list?

I'm assuming you think Rask's case is town and misguided? Still wondering what your response would be. He's not wrong that you didn't do much around deadline to push Victor over GreyICE.

Need to think this over. This game is hard.

[BlackVoid]

I'm not particularly suspicious of Sotty anymore. I found the meta analysis of her being more active as town and quiet as scum convincing.

She was inactive in her latest game as scum, yeah. But I looked at her wiki to see what else she's capable of and she's got a lot of scum wins under her belt. In some of them, her team was pretty close to losing and she turned it around really well.

I think you are being openly dishonest by suggesting that the difference in her town and scum play was so simple as activity level.

[BlackVoid]

Okay, so update on 1021. I had a group of six not-townreads. We lynched one and Creature has since been very town which leaves just four. The town are Victor, IAI, goodmorning, Cloud, Jaack, and Creature.

This leaves Sotty7, MariaR, Hoopla, and Rask. If the townie among the four of you could please raise your hand, do a backflip, and say "I'm a townie," that would be much appreciated. I'm chucking out the connective tells by the way. Some are tenuous. Just straight up POE would help.

Stuff I need to do when I get back to this game later:
1. Explain the goodmorning townread for Victor who is clearly town and on that wagon.
2. Dig into the ISOs of the foursome to see who's town. I'd prefer the backflip though so if you can, you should do it.

[BlackVoid]

MichelSableheart's reaction to the conflict between Victor and you/goodmorning/TwoFace. There are several angles he could have exploited there. Instead he called me town and basically said "I don't know how to make sense of this, help me and I'll re-read with your reads in mind." I found it town because it lacked subtlety. If he was scum and wanted to buddy me or any of the four of you, I think he'd be more smooth about it.

With players like Creature who don't explain reads, I have to read them by their positions. Reads list in 1186 is a close match to mine. He's also been townreading a few players that he doesn't really have any reason to townread as scum. Like Jaack and Cloud. I think they'd be easy to push due to low contribution and not really being caught up with the game.

[BlackVoid]

I'm town and I doubt the scumteam is sotty/maria/hoopla through hoopla-maria interaction (read hoop iso), so you're wrong.
More accurately one of your clears is wrong. Why goodmorning town? Also wonder how you clear cloud. It's not that you say you have weak or "probably" townreads either, but how are you so confident as to rule out any possibility especially with the glaring holes in gm's game here? If you found something that convincing I'd really want to know, though more likely something is just wrong since your conclusion isn't realistic.

It's certainly possible I made a mistake. I'll explain my townreads on Cloud and goodmorning later this evening. You're welcome to point out where you think I'm wrong then.

[BlackVoid]

I should start pushing a wagon on my townreads so that somebody (MariaR) can complain about how bad it is. I'll get to work on that.

[BlackVoid]

@GM, could you explain your townread on Rask and why you don't like Sotty7's wagon?

Right now, the way I'm seeing it is that scum get pressured and her partners (two out of Hoopla, Rask, MariaR) start up a counterwagon because they don't want to bus which makes me more confident she's scum. So, if you could explain what you think is going on, that would be nice.

[BlackVoid]

Also, nothing about Sotty7's response to the wagon was town. Someone should give intent so we get a claim to assess.

[BlackVoid]

Hey Cloud, why did you say earlier that you were going to sheep GreyICEs' townread on Sotty7? As far as I can see from your completed games, you never played with GreyICE and if you are just going off of him being confirmed town, then TwoFace is confirmed town as well and he was scumreading Sotty7. Why look at GreyICE's read specifically?

I'll respond to Sotty7's posts and the GM read I'm supposed to explain later.

[BlackVoid]

You should probably vote her so Jaack can state intent. I really want to get the claim out so we can move to the next step of figuring out whether we buy it.

[BlackVoid]

What's your opinion on Hoopla?

Mine? Somewhat divided on it. I have townreads on everyone other than Sotty7, Hoopla, MariaR, and Rask. This was before D2.

Then I started pushing Sotty7 on D2 and the other three resisted the wagon. Rask later joined it after the GM push failed but his initial instinct was to push a Sotty7 counterwagon.

This makes me more confident that the scum is in this pool of four players. I'm just not sure which of them are town resisting this push. Or if Sotty7 is town and all the scum are pushing against this so they look better tomorrow and screw with VCA. I have a really hard time seeing any of them as town and no one has obliged me by doing backflips. So, I don't know.

[BlackVoid]

On Sotty7's claim - I don't buy her night actions. It seems too much of a co-incidence to me that one of Sotty7's biggest antagonist was nightkilled and the other was tracked by her.

It seems more likely she's scum, figured out that TwoFace and Jaack were her biggest threats during the night, killed one, and rolecopped/tracked the other.

[BlackVoid]

I see the unvote but whatever.

I'm a tracker, I tracked Jaack he didn't go anywhere. It was a toss up between him and twoface. I realized twoface more of a me read and a couple of people told me that I was tunneling so I ended up going with Jaack as he was my next best read.

This makes absolutely no sense by the way.

If you've got a read that nobody is believing you on, then you use your night actions on that person to catch them and hopefully prove that they are scum. You don't switch around to a more popular scumread.

[BlackVoid]

I still think Masons and an additional investigative role is a bit much. I'd expect something non-investigative like 1-shot BP, bodyguard, vanilla cop or some sort of weak role to counter.

With that said, I seem to be alone in this battle and there are other scum left so for now

VOTE: Hoopla (Lynch - 1)

I'd also lynch Rask and MariaR but for some reason both seemed to be getting townread a whole lot.

[BlackVoid]

BV is really phoning it in at this point. See Rask at the end of day one.

Damn you Sotty7, I thought I worked my way into everyone's townreads and could relax but you have to call me out now. Here, let me write a wall so that silly townies will think "effort = town" and leave me alone.

[BlackVoid]

TOWNLORDS WHO I TRUST TO WIN THIS GAME

Victor:

I buy Victor's Mason claim as he claimed it when he didn't have to and I was townreading him before anyways, claim or not.

IAI:

I still think IAI is town for the way he put his neck on the line to lynch GreyICE despite the arguments to the contrary. They don't address the fact that it was D1 and IAI had several other options if he was scum and wanted to look pro-town.

Jaack:

The Jaack wagon is horrible. What the heck are you guys doing? My townread on Jaack from D1 still holds and nothing he's done today has reduced that. He went after Sotty7 which seems consistent with the rest of his play. I think he's tunneling a bit given there are scum outside of Sotty7 but I understand why he wants his biggest scumread dead. I don't get how Rask started thinking "he feels fake to me now" when nothing of Jaack's demeanor, pushes, or activity level has changed.

goodmorning:

Despite not understanding GM's play at times, I think she's town. One of the biggest tells I've noticed was when she told Sotty7 that she doesn't want to argue with good players when she suspects them. It seemed like such a bizarre thing for scum to say. If GM was scum and scared of Sotty7 beating her in an argument, couldn't she simply attack weaker players? Stuff I wrote in 323 about her early play still apply.

Creature:

I'm pretty confident he's town now because he's seeing the game in a very similar way to me. I expand on 1314 on him and his predecessor.

TOWNIE BUT A TINGE OF PARAN

OIA:

Cloud:

I'm a little more murky on Cloud but I still think what I said in 325 applies. I like his reaction to that which was to tell me he was doing pro-town things and not to townread him for a slip. He also talks about how great he is as scum which tends to just put people on their guards so I think he probably wouldn't do it as scum. But I think of all townreads, this one is the shakiest.

FUTURE SCUM BLOC MEMBERS WHO WILL SERVE AS THE BACKBONE (ALONG WITH ME) IN DEMOLISHING THE TOWN:

Sotty7:

Sotty7 is a given. The recent attack on Creature is simply attacking who she perceives as the weakest vote on her wagon. Creature's stances and positions are amazingly consistent and she just ignored that because he jumped onto two wagons. Guess what, both wagons that Creature jumped on (Sotty7 and Hoopla) were on people he was scumreading. It's not like he's randomly jumping on wagons.

Hoopla:

All of Hoopla's pushes today are bad. GM is town as is Jaack. Hoopla's reason for voting GM is literally "she and TwoFace defended me against Victor and there's gotta be one scum there. TwoFace was town so GM is scum." That's so lame and if she actually believed what she was saying to Victor, she shouldn't find it surprising that people agreed with her. Then there's the Jaack push. No reasoning but I'll assume from D1 that she just thought Jaack was flying under the radar. I pointed out that this is Jaack's normal play and she hopped off because me and TwoFace were defending him. But now TwoFace is dead leaving her clear to push Jaack.

Rask:

Rask's case on GM harped on way too much about "anti-town" stuff like GM not responding and posting reads. But then if he was so sure that he went to absurd lengths to write a wall of text about her, how did he so easily switch to Sotty7 instead of arguing that Sotty7 was a counterwagon to GM? I don't think he actually believes his GM-case and there were some points where I felt he was parroting Victor (for example, saying that GM is refusing to read Victor's posts which I know is a sore point for Victor).

MariaR:

MariaR's scumreads are me and Jaack which is just wtf. She's just doing everything that is the opposite of what I'm doing. There's also the fact that the Victor wagon formed from people disgruntled with the GreyICE lynch and were part of the Sotty7 wagon. Who hated the GreyICE lynch, was never on the Sotty7 wagon but on the Victor wagon? MariaR.

[BlackVoid]

Jaack is town. Why not hop over to the Hoopla wagon?

[BlackVoid]

goodmorning:

Despite not understanding GM's play at times, I think she's town. One of the biggest tells I've noticed was when she told Sotty7 that she doesn't want to argue with good players when she suspects them. It seemed like such a bizarre thing for scum to say. If GM was scum and scared of Sotty7 beating her in an argument, couldn't she simply attack weaker players? Stuff I wrote in 323 about her early play still apply.

No, because if I attacked "weaker" players I'd be accused of picking (on) low-hanging fruit.

Okay then, you are scum. My mistake.

[BlackVoid]

Glad we got that straightened out!

Who are your partners?

[BlackVoid]

But more to the point GM, why on earth are you wasting your time telling me that you could be scum? I'd expect more time devoted to stuff like dismantling Rask's case on you and stuff that actually matters.

It almost feels like you feel very guilty that I'm townreading you and you can't help yourself from refuting each and every single point I've made pointing out why you are town. Maybe I've been wrong this whole time.

[BlackVoid]

Not in defense. His case on you was actually really scummy and I was hoping you'd be able to point it out.

[BlackVoid]

@GM, how can we work together to lynch scum? It seems like you are hopping off of every good wagon because of paranoia. Sotty7 is scum and a great wagon. Hoopla is also scum. You sort of talked yourself out of both wagons and finally winded up on obvtown Creature. We can't lynch scum without wagons being formed. What are you expecting exactly? That every person who votes Hoopla write a thesis about why she's scum? Creature doesn't seem like a player who gives lots of reasoning for his reads. You claim you are townreading me so my presence on the wagon shouldn't deter you. IAI has always suspected Hoopla so there's no surprises there? Can we get back to lynching Hoopla? Would you be willing to lynch Rask instead?

[BlackVoid]

It's not so much consistency as in Creature has said at the beginning that his suspects both you (Sotty7) and Hoopla. When wagons sprung up on both of you, Creature was on them. To twist as scummy is something I found troubling. In fact, if wagons formed on his scumreads and he

didn't

join them,

that

would have been scummy. It's not like he's joining any wagon, just the ones on his scumreads. For example, he didn't bite at the GM or Jaack wagons.

However, Creature I do have a question for you. I'm not really sure how you went from {Victor, Jaack, IAI, Sotty, goodmorning} as your initial scumlist to your final reads of {Rask, Sotty7, Hoopla, MariaR} which is basically a carbon-copy of my own reads. There's an intermediate step in 1186 but I don't know how you got there either. How did Rask and IAI jump into your scumpile 1421 and disappear again in 1581? I think I cut you a bit too much slack for having the same reads as me and I want to see why you have those reads so go ahead and explain your top four scumreads.

[BlackVoid]

It's not as clear as I would like so maybe go over it again briefly?

What about your scumreads though (Rask, Hoopla, Sotty7, MariaR)? I'm more interested in hearing your reasons for those.

[BlackVoid]

You had him as town before (you made a strike against his name). What did he do to change that?

[BlackVoid]

What does that mean?

[BlackVoid]

iai it is eminently possible that maria joins the creature wagon

don't be so hasty to consolidate

Take a stance please even if you are not ready to switch. I don't want to keep going towards deadline with you keeping your options open. IF you had to choose, who would you vote?

[BlackVoid]

Not too late to hop over to Hoopla, Rask.

[BlackVoid]

What did you want to talk about?

[BlackVoid]

Yeah, pretty much.

[BlackVoid]

If it is indeed Sotty7 and Hoopla, I'd disagree with GM being the third partner. She said she preferred the Sotty7 wagon over BBT when she could have easily voted BBT. I don't think she's partnered with Hoopla because to bus her and jump off as the wagon developed would look terrible. I doubt it is Jaack too. I suppose I could see Cloud as a partner to either. I'm not sure where he came up with the Sotty7 suspicion. It seemed to suddenly form when she was at L-1 and he quickly made a statement that he won't vote the tracker claim. Frankly I've skimmed some of his posts because the formatting is so hard to follow.

[BlackVoid]

That sounded sincere.

@Hoopla, I'm not going to vote Jaack over you. He's been a townread from D1. Will you help me lynch any of my scumreads?

[BlackVoid]

MariaR would be my top choice to lynch if we can all agree on her.

Other than that, I really want to lynch Sotty7. Everyone's just letting the claim sway them but I buy Victor's claim a whole lot more and Masons + Tracker seems too much investigative power. Adding onto that, everyone just seems to ignore that if Sotty7 were scum, killing TwoFace and tracking Jaack is exactly what she would do. And no, she wouldn't be trying to find Victor's mason partner because Masons are not a threat to scum at night. It's more important to find any other PRs and to check whether Jaack is mislynchable.

If we could all get back onto Sotty7, that would be pretty great. Nothing of her play or claim has really convinced me that she's town. Or we could do MariaR. That would be nice too.

[BlackVoid]

What are the odds that the night one kill is one of the two biggest threat to Sotty7?

What are the odds that the night one kill is one of the two biggest threats to Sotty7 that isn't investigated by Sotty7? Her claim and night action is too convenient for me to believe. Her reasoning for investigating Jaack over TwoFace is really weak and sounds made up.

If Jaack, Hoopla, and I all vote Sotty7, that leaves three other votes. What do you say IAI, Victor, Creature?

[BlackVoid]

I also think Jack is a decent chance of being scum

Why do you think this?

[BlackVoid]

Address my point on the two people scumreading Sotty7 the most D1 being nightkilled and tracked?

[BlackVoid]

voting with people I think are town has been a key factor in my votes.

Who are your strongest townreads that you are trying to vote with and who are weaker townreads?

[BlackVoid]

Everyone who keeps saying vote scoty will be met with the end of my fist

^ To lynch after a Sotty7 scumflip.

[BlackVoid]

I also think Jack is a decent chance of being scum

Why do you think this?

Pseudo-PoE I guess, as I just haven't seen much from him that makes me go, "oh ok, probs town", whereas I have with a handful of others. I know it's too late in the game to not really have any concrete scumreads, but realistically, I feel like many of my scumreads aren't particularly accurate, so voting with people I think are town has been a key factor in my votes.

What in your opinion are the major flaws of my 817?

[BlackVoid]

In an ideal world I'd actually lynch either GM or cloud and let sotty and jaack sort itself out in massclaim, but neither seems viable.

I don't want to lynch outside on my four scumreads, at least not today. If I'm wrong on any of them, then yeah I'll go over my townreads again.

[BlackVoid]

What are the odds that the night one kill is one of the two biggest threats to Sotty7 that isn't investigated by Sotty7? Her claim and night action is too convenient for me to believe. Her reasoning for investigating Jaack over TwoFace is really weak and sounds made up.

How in the hell is it convenient? The reality is I have no actual information on Jaack. If I was scum faking a no result, why wouldn't I just claim it on Twoface? The result is essentially the same. You are completely tunneled on me for no good reason. Every time I challenge you on it, I get ignored. Why is it weak? Why does it sound made up?

Wait, "no result?" I was under the impression that you were saying Jaack went nowhere. There's a difference. Please clarify this.

I don't think you are fake-claiming. I think you are a mafia tracker who tracked Jaack last night.

Your reasoning for picking Jaack basically was that you were the only one scumreading TwoFace. I think if you were town, you'd go for TwoFace over Jaack as you seemed more certain on TwoFace. He was also more widely townread which means he's more likely to perform the kill. Being widely townread also means he's unlikely to get lynched unless he's caught through a night action which is more reason to pick him.

I also think you're acting a little intentionally ignorant. You can clearly see why the nightkill alone as well as the combination of the nightkill and track choice heavily points to you as scum. Instead of admitting that and arguing that you are still town, you are pretending like I'm being completely off my rocker.

[BlackVoid]

I don't think you are fake-claiming. I think you are a mafia tracker who tracked Jaack last night.

why would mafia tracker exist vs masons

I don't know. Mafia roles don't necessarily need to counter townroles. I can post quotes of mhsmith arguing this point elsewhere.

[BlackVoid]

@Hoopla:

Eh, I'm not super sold on the Sotty claim (I'd probably believe a VT claim from her 100% of the time here, and would expect her to claim something like this as scum), but the good thing about having two PR's claimed, is scum can't really afford to not NK them if they're town, which will aid us in PoE calculations as we may not have to test either of those claims.

Usually I agree with this line of approach with regards to sorting claims out, but there is a risk of a Sotty-scum situation where a Mason is NK'ed tonight, then Sotty fakeclaims a guilty tomorrow. If you follow it and are wrong it leads the game to a 2:3 lylo with no info D3 and D4 as people were automatically following a claim/counterclaim scenario. That endgame would be highly favourable for scum imo, particularly when the town's reads have been quite polarised.

What changed between these two posts? It seemed like you wanted to leave Sotty7 for later but now you are more in the camp of lynching her today being a good idea.

[BlackVoid]

By the way, I am heavily against an IAI lynch. Don't expect my support there.

[BlackVoid]

Lol BV she was put to l-1 that changed.

That implies you are scumreading her. Honestly I don't get the real reason why you voted or unvoted Hoopla. It seems like you are just going with the flow.

[BlackVoid]

@Rask, yeah, well your play around Sotty7 and Hoopla pretty heavily points to being partnered with them.

You make this extensive case on goodmorning but switch over to Sotty7 when it seems like her lynch was inevitable. If you really believed in your GM case that much, you would have pushed her harder and looked at the people pushing Sotty7 as a GM counterwagon. But it seems like you really wanted your vote on the Sotty7 wagon for optics.

Then there's the Hoopla wagon. You voted her out of nowhere, then switched to Jaack, then voted her back today after a lynch seems likely. Then suddenly after I said Hoopla's post looked sincere, you were all for finding alternative wagons (but not Sotty7, somewhere else).

[BlackVoid]

I think I'm going to stick with Hoopla at least until IAI, Victor, and Creature all say they are down with a Sotty7 lynch. Out of the viable lynches, Hoopla is still my second choice.

[BlackVoid]

"Not wanting to lynch tracker claim" is just an easy standard out for Sotty7's buddies to not vote her. But the more pressing point if your play around Hoopla.

[BlackVoid]

Yep. Hoping you'd self-vote since no one seems to want to lynch you.

On your PR point, here's what mhsmith has to say about PRs: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p8433083

The summary is that he thinks scum having a counter to town roles is dumb so I can see why he'd put in scum tracker and town masons even if tracker doesn't directly counter the masons.

Or were you talking about the theory that someone would have soft-cc'd Sotty7? I don't care about that.

[BlackVoid]

@Sotty7, what do you feel about Hoopla's push on you and change of stance from "let Sotty7's claim sort her out" to "lynching her today is actually a decent/good idea?"

[BlackVoid]

Cloud are you voting Rask because she voted you and that's it?

What do

you

think of Rask? You started off D2 by voting him. Did you change your mind on him?

[BlackVoid]

Okay, so it's been a ridiculously hard decision between Sotty7 and Hoopla. Ultimately, Hoopla's been sort of an enigma while Sotty7 has been more traditionally scummy as well as had the nightkill point towards her. Her lack of noticing Hoopla pushing her is another reason. Finally, I think Hoopla's early scumread on Sotty7 seems more likely to come from a town to a scum than the other way around. Between the two, I'm going for Sotty7.

For Creature, I'll briefly address the claim point - I do think leaving PRs alive is a good idea in general but since we have a Mason claim already, Sotty7 could make it through at least a couple of days before she's expected to answer questions about being nightkilled so best to just go with our reads now. If I'm wrong and just lynched a tracker, I'll feel like a dumbass sure but for now, I'm going to take the risk.

VOTE: Sotty7

[BlackVoid]

So what changed between these posts?

UNVOTE:

I didn't even notice this. This is awfully convenient just when she got under pressure.

[BlackVoid]

We already talked about this?

I thought so too but that was different. I asked Hoopla why she changed from not believing Sotty7's claim but wanting to wait to wanting her dead today. IAI pointed out Hoopla straight up townreading Sotty7 to pushing her wagon. If it's all because of the claim and a crazy theory that Sotty7 would fake a guilty tomorrow...

[BlackVoid]

VOTE: Sotty7

Too much evidence here. TwoFace nightkill directly points to her. Her D1 play has been to push a mislynch and I never got the impression she was reading BBT or GreyICE. Way too tunnely. I think I'm ready to roll the dice here. If I'm wrong, there's lots of re-assessment needed.

[BlackVoid]

No they don't. What about it?

[BlackVoid]

TwoFace nightkill directly points to her.

HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

BZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

[BlackVoid]

@bv insteand of overjustifying your vote on a pr claim, as if you knew she would flip track, why dont you just try to find the 2 other mafia if youre right on sotty? This pr lynch is complete garbage suboptimal trash play

If I could lynch Rask or MariaR, I'd do it but nobody wants to go there. Hoopla is another option so that's where I pushed until I didn't feel confident in her flipping scum.

You are voting Rask and Sotty7 is either right or committed to bussing. That's still just three votes. Maybe Creature is four. There's heavy opposition from GM, Hoopla, Jaack. Victor and IAI don't seem enthused about it as well.

As for MariaR, no one's really paying attention to anything I say about her. So I figured, screw the PR claim and let me just vote whoever I think is most

likely

to flip red. I guess Hoopla is still a possibility. It wasn't an easy choice between her and Sotty7. I haven't ruled out getting back on her. I really want to hear from Victor's replacement as that slot is a pretty strong townread. I might switch over to work with them.

[BlackVoid]

I wouldn't say my vote is lazy. I was the hardest pusher of the Sotty7 wagon while we ran her up to a claim. She's not getting nightkilled over a claimed Mason so that's at least two more nights Sotty7 has an excuse to live. She could be alive D4 and it still doesn't condemn her. If we don't lynch scum by then, we'll be at lynch or lose. So, no the claim doesn't sway me and it's not a reason to leave her alone.

[BlackVoid]

I'm not going to stand by hard and fast rules like "don't lynch the PR." I'd much rather lynch Sotty7 and look for her buddies from among the people who keep peddling that line.

[BlackVoid]

@Sotty7, I've been scumreading MariaR and Rask all of today and no one has even expressed interest in joining me. You made a slight push on Rask and then spent most of the time attacking Creature and Jaack. There's no way I'm voting Creature. His reads are on oasis of sanity among a crowd of people townreading my scumreads and attacking lynchbait. I'm not voting Jaack. I said why I think he's town D1.

@Cloud, what MariaR is doing pretty obviously qualifies as "resistance." So there you have a Sotty7 buddy.

[BlackVoid]

"Hey bv, remember 1843 when i appealed to you as town before you ego lazy ego lynch the sole investigative claim in the game? That was totally dope lol"

I think what you are missing that Masons are a pretty powerful role that serve a similar purpose (to confirm people as town). It's unlikely that there are both Masons and a tracker, even more unlikely that the one person we pressured managed to be one of the only other PRs in the game, even more unlikely that N1, Sotty7 checked Jaack and her other nemesis TwoFace was killed. If we are to believe Sotty7, we have to believe a whole host of unlikely events all snowballed up here. Then we have Sotty7's play itself which I've had no reason to townread all game.

[BlackVoid]

What about grey hard tr on sotty? What about her just making a stupid track? You are ready to be the 5-6th vote on a pr claim d2 and you dont take into consideration at the bery least 2 towns reads plus maria is town if sotty is town imo, so at best 3 towns? Maybe we could just test the shit out of her, no one even proposed it

Grey spent most of his time in the game scumreading a claimed Mason and a strong townread of mine (IAI). It's safe to say his reads might have been influenced by that. I'm also not sure why I'm supposed to care that he was townreading Sotty7. TwoFace is confirmed town as well and he was scumreading Sotty7 really hard. So, if you are weighing the opinions of confirmed town, they both cancel out. Why do you keep bringing up GreyICE's read and ignoring TwoFace's read?

What is there to test? Like I said, the most likely kills are Victor and his Mason buddy whoever that is. Which means Sotty7 can still be alive D4 without any need to explain why she's still alive. There's nothing to "test." I also believe she's a tracker. I think she's probably a mafia tracker.

[BlackVoid]

By the way. here's why it doesn't make sense for a scumteam not containing Sotty7 to kill TwoFace: TwoFace despite being obvtown barely did anything but tunnel on Sotty7. If Sotty7 was town, TwoFace has been very useful to the scumteam. Killing him over a claimed Mason would have been dumb.

[BlackVoid]

If mafia wanted Sotty7 lynched, letting TwoFace push that lynch is much simpler than trying to "frame" her. TwoFace's major scumreads have been Sotty7, Hoopla, and MariaR. You are arguing that they both are town. So, it seems like you are saying that every one of his reads were wrong and you are all being framed which is nuts.

[BlackVoid]

@Rask, if you really think GM is a Sotty7 buddy, lynch Sotty7 first and get her tomorrow. No point bailing on a scumlynch for that. If you really, really want to die, you could always get lynched tomorrow too! Why the rush?

With that said, my townread on GM is nowhere near as strong as before. She's more nullish to me now.

By the way, I have not looked at any of GreyICE's reads and I don't know where you got the impression that I did.

[BlackVoid]

Why, what happened for this shift?

She told me she wasn't town and that my reasons for townreading her are rubbish.

[BlackVoid]

But I scumread GM more, sotty is a tracker claim, and also GM finally flipping should vindicate me and get people to stop annoying me, whereas even if sotty flips scum your top theory is literally that I'm scum bussing her.

Okay, the first two reasons I can buy. The third one doesn't make sense. If Sotty7 is scum, then we've got a scum flip, we are one step closer to a win and you can push GM then. If she's town, then my bussing theory would no longer apply.

By the way, it wasn't my intention to demotivate you. I tend to make prolonged pushes and not let go when I lock onto someone. If you want to talk about why your GM-case hit alarm bells for me and why I was scumreading you for it rather than GM, I can explain my internal thinking more. I touched on it a bit in my reads list though.

Right now, GM has been sliding down my town-scale a lot so I'm considering that you might have a point there. I still think a Sotty7 flip is pivotal to solidifying my reads. There were three wagons D1. We know GreyICE was town and Victor very likely is too. Sotty7 is the unknown. We know she pushed very hard for the BBT/GreyICE lynch. We know BBT hard-scumread her before replacing out. We know TwoFace wanted her flip really, really badly and winded up dead N1. We know that she investigated her other threat. Hoopla's right that in her place, scum would almost certainly claim PR. All of this tells me Sotty7's flip is integral to figuring out the game and is a very, very likely scumflip. That's where I'm at and that's why I'd really rather not let go of Sotty7.

[BlackVoid]

I'm going to chime in in a bit but in the meantime, does anyone want to comment on why I'm still alive? In fact, I'd like everyone's comments on that. I was obviously right about Sotty7 which means I'm very likely wrong about someone else. I want to hear thoughts on who that could be.

[BlackVoid]

Okay, so I looked over Sotty7's ISO to see how she interacted with people. Arona and Jaack are obviously town so I'm going to focus on the other six people for now.

goodmorning

- Saying she wants to join the Sotty7 wagon over BBT's seemed unnecessary because she had been laying down the groundwork to push BBT anyways. Then there's the way Sotty7 reacted to her scumread by trying to placate her and make her see reason that I don't see as scumbuddy interaction. GM pushing in 588, Sotty7's response in 590, GM's 694, Sotty7's 795, GM's 811, Sotty7's 827 and GM's 884 are the back-and-forths I'm referring to. GM's basically going "you are scum but I'm not going get into why" and the gist of Sotty7's response is "please do tell me."

inb4 GM goes "but I totally would have pushed Sotty7 D1 if I was her partner and your reasons are rubbish." I'm just going to point out that I'm not going to call GM town because she seems allergic to that - let's just call her a cat in wolf's clothing.

@Rask, if you are still scumreading GM, give those a quick look and let me know what you think because this is one of my stronger reads.

[BlackVoid]

Hoopla

- I thought Sotty7 was buddying her rather hard. When Hoopla told her at the beginning that she was suspicious, Sotty7 responds with "I'm sad" and then there was her talk about tag-teaming with Hoopla if they were indeed both town. She puts Hoopla down to null/scum for a little while but once Hoopla townreads her again, all suspicion is forgotten. There's a lot of agreement with Hoopla and piggybacking off of her. Finally on D2, there's a ton of whiteknighting Hoopla when it looked like the latter was going to be lynched. Sotty7 was jumping through Hoops* to keep her appeased.

*No pun intended.

[BlackVoid]

I'm thinking we should massclaim. At this point, I think it can only help.

[BlackVoid]

Maybe not. But we're at the point where we can sit and analyze interactions and we have a lot of analytical players. Knowing the layout of the game will help a bunch. I'm pretty sure scum have a rolecop-type role which can check more claims the more nights we wait. They have Hoopla's VT claim and probably know Jaack's role. I think it's time we put everything on the table so we have all the info too

We could do it through consensus. Have the more widely scumread people like Creature and Cloud go first.

[BlackVoid]

I feel rather strongly about doing it today but yeah, let's make Cloud claim first. I think the night kill is pretty much set in stone since we have a confirmed Mason so I don't think delaying it a day gives us much more info.

[BlackVoid]

VOTE: Cloudkicker

If he really wants to force us to go through the process of bringing him to L-1 with intent before he claims, that's fine.

How does everyone feel about an order like this?

Cloud
Creature
MafiaR
Rask
GM
Jaack
BV

We can keep tweaking it until people are okay with the concensus. Obviously I exclude Hoopla (VT) and Arona (Mason) from the list.

[BlackVoid]

@Hoopla, as far as MariaR is concerned, here's what we do know for sure:

On D1, Sotty7 and BBT/GreyICE were competing wagons for a pretty long time. MariaR never took a stand on them. ISO the mod from around here and keep scrolling down until 825. The Sotty7 wagon was always present, never with less than three votes. Then keep reading MariaR's posts from 825 (pages 34 and 35). MariaR says she'd lynch Victor, Jaack, or me. Then she throws a lot of black smoke around the Grey wagon (see 850). TwoFace tells her that Sotty7 was the counterwagon and that it stalled. She ignores him completely. Then says that the Jaack wagon is not going anywhere and jumps onto Victor. She hated the GreyICE wagon but was ignoring Sotty7 for whatever reason.

As far as hard-defending a partner is concerned, when someone is calling the team, the instinctive response is to attack that person because bussing won't get you any cred. So, when I started D2 saying that Sotty7 and MariaR were scum together, she reacted by pushing me.

[BlackVoid]

@Cloud, you recognize that you are a universal scumread so if you want to be helpful, go ahead and claim. We can certainly get more votes on you if needed but if you are town here, it'll be much more expedient to just speed up the process.

[BlackVoid]

You are not getting incorrectly POE'd. You said you'd sheep GreyICE's read on Sotty7. Why would you do that? Just because GreyICE put in work? Well then GreyICE was hard-townreading Rask as well. That didn't seem to deter you from pushing him. So, GreyICE's read only applies to Sotty7? Given she was scum and he wrongly read her as town, that's incredibly convenient.

Then there's your argument that GreyICE was confirmed town and since a confirmed town was telling us Sotty7 was town, we should listen. Well BBT and TwoFace are confirmed town as well and they were both saying Sotty7 was scum. TwoFace was in fact very, very certain about it. Why ignore them and selectively choose to sheep GreyICE's read? You've never played with him before. Is it solely because he described himself as an excellent player? Guess what, so did you and more confident players sheep less. You claimed your reads are top notch. You didn't deliver.

[BlackVoid]

What about grey hard tr on sotty? What about her just making a stupid track? You are ready to be the 5-6th vote on a pr claim d2 and you dont take into consideration at the bery least 2 towns reads plus maria is town if sotty is town imo, so at best 3 towns? Maybe we could just test the shit out of her, no one even proposed it

You said right here that GreyICE being town and reading Sotty7 as town should be taken into consideration. No mention of TwoFace at all.

[BlackVoid]

Okay then, let's massclaim tomorrow. I guess we'll just have to do it the hard way today with no help from the setup.

I really do want Cloudkicker's claim though.

Is anyone else bothered by how MariaR simply opposes the lynch of every popular candidate? First it was GreyICE, then it was Sotty7, now it's Cloudkicker. I don't get the feeling she actually has the reads she does and is instead trying to put on a "batshit-crazy-townie" persona hoping that pushing me will get her townread because "what scum would do that?"

[BlackVoid]

I think this game is best solved through POE just because I have strong townreads but not very strong scumreads. I'm not doubting Arona and Jaack. I went over Sotty7's ISO again to look at how she treated GM and Hoopla. I just have a couple of questions before I can set them aside as town and continue POE'ing further.

@GM, why did you vote for Rask when you did? You were reading him as town and Sotty7 as scum. That vote makes no sense to me and the reasoning was that you quoted Rask saying that he would lynch MariaR.

@Hoopla, how good would you generally say you are at orchestrating interactions with your scumbuddies? Looking at your previous games, you've seen and been scum with Sotty7 before. Any firsthand insights on how she plays scum and treats her partners?

Sotty7's interactions look so much like she's buddying a townie who's mildly suspicious of her on and off. There's just a nagging voice at the back of my head wondering if Hoopla and Sotty7 are actually good enough to pull off something like this. But I still think if this was orchestrated, it would go both ways with Sotty7 trying to look good from a Hoopla scumflip, but it's been a very one-way affair which is why I think Hoopla is town.

[BlackVoid]

This post gave me the heebie-jeebies though, and makes Cloud my top suspect atm:

And you sotty, i dont want to be a dick to you but you should really fucking step up your game if ur real, like now

"goddamn it Sotty, we really can't afford you to get lynched right now, step up your game so I don't have to suspect your claim more any more"

Since mafia can talk during the day, why wouldn't he just say this in his private chat? This is only a tell if communication between the mafia is restricted.

[BlackVoid]

Sorry man, not good enough. I want to see a specific claim. You were quite intent on making anyone who reached L-1 claim. We can't just give you special treatment here and let you off with a vague "PR claim."

[BlackVoid]

I didn't know scum had daytalk until reading the rules literally right now, sooooo I guess take that point back.

I thought you already read the rules to check if you could use dice tags.

[BlackVoid]

The sentence ppl scumread me on was my thinking that sotty was getting lynched as pr for bad play, i was appealing to pr!sotty

Except as a PR, with a claimed Mason, you should be

less

likely to buy Sotty7's PR claim, not more.

[BlackVoid]

UNVOTE:

BV where do you stand right now?

I've been ISO'ing people. I haven't finished but here's where I'm at so far. You are actually my strongest townread outside of Jaack and Arona and the one I have the most trouble explaining.

Cloud's ISO is actually not too horrible. I specifically looked to see all the times he mentioned Sotty7 and nothing came off like he already knew her alignment. I really wanted his claim though since just letting him demand claims from whoever he wants while not claiming when he's at L-1 was bad and it feels like we're letting him get away with a lot.

I think I might be cutting GM too much slack. She claims she's known for not bussing. But despite attacking Sotty7, she never once voted her. She voted Victor who is town on D1. On D2, she kept her vote on IAI who's also town. For a brief moment, she switched to Hoopla, then Rask, then back to IAI. D3 she's voting you who I think is town. So, I don't know, that's one too many bad votes, and she never votes Sotty7.

Still need to ISO Rask and search for mentions of Sotty7. I'll get back to you on that. You seem to know him well, what do you think?

MariaR is the one I have no reason to believe is town so that's who I'd be most comfortable lynching. Saying you, me, and Jaack are scum is a pretty big stretch and I'm closer to thinking she's doing it to get towncred than because she actually buys what she's selling. There's also that D1 behavior where she complained about the GreyICE wagon (why is there no counterwagon? Is no one bothered???) Then TwoFace point-blank told her that Sotty7 was the counterwagon that was stalling. She didn't react to him and then moved onto Victor. But I haven't finished ISO'ing her either so more on this soon.

[BlackVoid]

How well does goodmorning/MariaR fit in as a team?

[BlackVoid]

Was Hoopla's play today better?

Hoopla's been a tough one to read right from the beginning. Sotty7

was

buddying her quite a bit though. I got excited for a moment where I thought she was making a fake-townslip about daytalk despite reading the rules but I don't know if that means anything. Like goodmorning, she got onto some bad wagons like the Jaack wagon yesterday but overall, I think she's town. Why? Do you have any reservations about her?

[BlackVoid]

Coming to a compromise is one thing, but you being a lynch option doesn't mean you can't have an opinion.

I like getting opinions rather than making.

I'm very interested in your opinion on Rask though.

[BlackVoid]

VOTE: MariaR

Can we get a wagon going here? I want to see where it goes. She's never had any pressure since the beginning of the game. We've at least locked Cloud into a PR claim and we can always come back if that's what we decide.

@Jaack, so what is it about GM that's unlikely to come from scum? There were a couple of things I noticed but I'm not sure if you are referring to the same points.

[BlackVoid]

Sotty7 spent a lot of time pushing IAI though. It's possible they didn't have it figured out but just killed him because he was a threat. If they wanted to kill a Mason, Arona seemed like the obvious bet.

[BlackVoid]

Okay, I'll double check my role PM if you flip town. I promise.

[BlackVoid]

That's not what happened. TwoFace wasn't the only one voting Sotty7. She was the second largest wagon. Beginning of page 34, here's the votecount.

Votecount 1.12

GreyICE (5)

Sotty7 , MichelSableheart , BlackVoid , VictorDeAngelo , I Am Innocent , L-2

Jaack (2)

Hoopla , MariaR ,

MichelSableheart (1)

CloudKicker ,

VictorDeAngelo (2)

goodmorning , GreyICE ,

Sotty7 (3)

Jaack , Raskolnikov , TwoFace ,

Day one deadline is Thursday November 3, 8 AM PST. (expired on 2016-11-03 08:00:00)

With 13 alive, it's 7 to lynch!

[/size]

Then Hoopla switched from Jaack to GreyICE. Then you made the following posts:

I don't get talking to someone like this and then voting them to l-1 a bit later

It's called trying to further the game through compromise. Perhaps you and your crew sitting on the stale Sotty wagon should try it some time.

I don't see any wagon really going off besides Grey like I don't see anything starting at all

Does that not worry you even a little?

I mean sure there's been a bit of pull from this wagon but NOTHING else is starting and that seems really odd for scum.

The only other wagon that had potential was sotty which stalled many times. Hoopla even helped stall it.

Grey is town

TwoFace replies and you ignore him. All this while Sotty7 was the most viable counterwagon to GreyICE. You can't have missed it because TwoFace specifically pointed it out to you.

Then you voted Victor and made him a viable wagon.

I don't see any wagon really going off besides Grey like I don't see anything starting at all

Does that not worry you even a little?

It does a little bit. If Grey is town, then I'd expect scum to be in the lurkers/people sitting on stale wagons content with the game state and not willing to put their neck on the line to further the game and put themselves in the limelight. Raskol, goodmorning, TwoFace spring to mind.

What other options do we have at this stage, though?

It's not like we have less than 24 hours or something we have 3 days that's plenty of time to come up with a lynch I think the problem is everyones reads are very spread out
I don't think the jaack wagon is going anywhere today so I['ll go on this one
VOTE: Victor

You don't think Jaack is going anywhere so you joined Victor. But the elephant in the room you never talked about was Sotty7. You could have voted there to make her wagon viable.

VOTE: Victor

I'm not sure why Rask voted here instead of trying to convince MariaR to join the Sotty7 wagon though. Based on his reads, he had Sotty7 as stronger scum than Victor.

[BlackVoid]

GM was on Victor for a very long time too. GreyICE was the only new vote on Victor. Besides, you joining Sotty7 would have actually brought it back to the forefront as a competing wagon to the one you hate.

[BlackVoid]

You voted Victor

first

.

Then

Rask voted. It feels like you are just making stuff up now.

[BlackVoid]

How could it be you not remembering?

Well Rask voted Victor so in my mind I was like "oh hey a wagon I don't dislike this wagon" so I voted with it.

This thought process that you expected me to believe is entirely made up. You can't possibly have ever thought this because it never happened.

[BlackVoid]

Well let's see. you, me, I think

maria

and twoface

are town too and know me, could probably vote with as well

, that's like 4 votes

It did seem like you thought MariaR was someone you could work with so I don't know how that suddenly changed to "convince MariaR? Lol."

[BlackVoid]

Cloud wasn't claiming. There wasn't anything to do there other than just lynch him and end the day. I am not confident enough in a Cloud scumread to do that or ask people to vote him back and hammer him. I want to explore other options and then decide.

Sotty7 was a different case. I did switch to Hoopla after she claimed. I did explore options for most of the day. At the end of the day, decided that Sotty7 was the most likely scum after all and pushed for her lynch.

[BlackVoid]

Someone who's played with GM before - can you comment on the general accuracy of her reads? If she's normally accurate as town and doesn't bus as scum, having bad reads counts against her. If she's normally inaccurate as town, it isn't as telling. Accuracy is subjective but I'm just looking for opinions.

[BlackVoid]

Calling the council of not dumb players to analyse 2236.

Doesn't take into account that I moved off of Sotty7 after the claim, explored other options and finally decided that it was the most achievable lynch that I felt would flip scum. Similarly with Cloud, he's not going to claim so I'm pushing elsewhere. I'll decide what to do once I've considered other options. 2236 is silly. It's even sillier that some people called it a good point.

[BlackVoid]

It's kind of hard to game-solve without looking like I'm game-solving. I should learn how to do it though.

[BlackVoid]

The thing is if BV wasn't okay with a tracker claim why is he okay with an empty pr claim

I just told you why...

[BlackVoid]

If I'm going to be lynched because of poe I can be okay with that
I can't be okay with going down for being scummy because to me I wasn't I was wrong everyone is at points

Okay then, let's lynch you because of POE. Glad you are okay with that.

[BlackVoid]

FMpov if maria is scum it's probably with GM anyways. I know you guys don't have the same pov but I really would prefer goodmorning please.
The thing is this behaviour isn't particularly anything new for maria town so it feels more like a crapshoot.

If I could be sure it's MariaR and GoodMorning, I'd go with that. But I think there's an outside chance of you being scum which makes me hesitate and want to go for the read I'm more sure of. I guess I'll have to finish my ISO of you so I can sort you for good.

What are your other reads currently? Who are your surest townreads and what's your POE looking like?

[BlackVoid]

I guess I'll ISO myself to see if I did anything scummy.

[BlackVoid]

mmm, still not really feeling the maria lynch based on the hard-defenses and frankly, her strange catalogue of reads throughout the game. I just don't think it's as likely she presents such bizarre reads and chooses that line of interaction with Sotty -- you do this if you're super intune with the metagame and know how people are going to perceive you for doing it, and no offense to Maria, but I just don't see her as that type of player.

My problem is if not MariaR, then who?

[BlackVoid]

I don't know what to think of MariaR's VT claim but for now I'm fine with getting back on Cloud for a hard-claim and going from there.

VOTE: Cloud

This is L-2 so Hoopla, you should probably vote him if you want the claim.

[BlackVoid]

Creature, obviously. I still don't know why people other than Rask are clearing him (and still am not sold on why Rask is).

Then one of goodmorning/Raskol.

Do you have any reason for scumreading Creature besides him not commenting after we both voted Sotty7? I think he's town but it's really hard to explain given his posting style.

[BlackVoid]

If he doesn't claim at L-1 with intent, what makes you think he'll claim at L-2?

[BlackVoid]

Never mind, did not see Rask's vote. He's at L-1.

[BlackVoid]

And I find it strange people are so willing to dismiss him, when at this stage there are often decent reasons to dismiss a lot of players. For example, I feel like Maria's hard defenses are a better reason to dismiss someone than Creature's posting style.

I'm not townreading him for his posting style. I'm saying it's hard to explain my read on him because of how he posts but I'll give it a go.

First, there's my point on MichelSableheart - the way he asked me for opinions on you/Victor/GM/TwoFace and then went back to read with those in mind was probably town. Counter-intuitively, I think town are actually more receptive to listening to others and working with people. I don't think he'd be so blatant about buddying me as scum and he could have approached your conflict in other ways, ones that could be advantageous to him but his approach felt sincere.

Next, there's Creature replacing in and sort of doing the same thing D1. He said he'll help me push any other wagon as long as it's not on him. I think that's something scum would be too self-conscious to say. But if he's town and had me as a strong townread, I think he'd say that.

Then, there are his actual reads which aligned with mine pretty closely. I'm a little bothered that his four scumreads were the exact same ones I had but I don't think they were unreasonable. He scumread Sotty7, and had no hesitation in voting her. He did say PR-claim means we should wait but by itself, that's not telling. It seems to be common wisdom to leave PR claims alone for a day. The way Cloud did it struck me as scummy because he seemed so invested in Sotty7's survival. Creature didn't seem that way.

Finally, there's Sotty7's push on him. I think his vote on the wagon came across as easily attackable because he didn't give any reasons. It seemed more like that she was taking advantage of a townie who put down a weak vote on her as opposed to cross-bussing.

Can we discuss your read on Rask? More details on why you are scumreading him and whether it's a strong enough read that you are considering him as a lynch for today.