Newbie 1747 (Game Over)

[mhsmith0]

He seemed townie, but I've yet to play against his scum game and am not really sure what he's capable of as scum. Some of it is simply pushing and defending the wrong people in a high leverage situation (IF pp is town).

[Blawb]

1) algebra - Confirmed townie.
2) Blawb - Townie (FMPOV)
3) Hermie - Leaning town due to Creeps flipping scum.
4) mhsmith0 - My gut says townie but seems to be pushing hard for town cred via game theory, which is useless after the fact imo.
5) MisaTange - Confirmed townie.
6) PenguinPower - Leaning scum. I was leaning scum on him since D1 (check my posts if you don't believe me). Although, his fishing might be so scummy that it's townie (if that makes any sense).
7) Thor665 - Slight scumlean on Thor. I know most of you guys are saying townie, but I just don't see it. Gut feelings are probably frowned upon, but my gut says scum. I can try to dig some stuff up on him later if need be.

Hermie is also pretty obv!town. Starting to form a block here. Get hermie/algebra/BP together and we win.

I can agree with this, even though I was the first one to suggest this notion (my first post on this thread). Creeps and Hermie had a weird relationship going on; I'm inclined to believe that Hermie is a townie because I don't believe that Creeps would be...um...decisive enough to have the ability to follow through with a bus as elaborate as that.

I'm going to revisit the people that Creeps named right before he died. Usually, scum spew out a whole list of names accusing others of being scum. Most times, they are dumb enough to think that reverse psychology actually works and they list a scum buddy in there as well.

Regarding the whole BP claim situation, I'll just remind everyone that the smartest possible move would have been for a VT to claim as BP and the BP doesn't CC it, thinking that the claim is actually to protect them. Given the immediacy and (sorry) weakness of the claim itself, we still can't be sure that the real BP claimed. If this is the case, that was a brilliant claim.

So, if the real BP hasn't claimed yet, just consider the above as a possibility.

Mhsmith seems to be tunneling on PP. I'm pulling the newbie card; I'm not sure if this is a townie move or a scum move. I could see the aggressive townie stance, but I could also see the scum trying to pull out their pitchforks to blend in with the mob.

@Thor - This is a game theory question for you, I guess.

So...now we have two conf!town. One can go down with one NK. The other takes two NKs. That's pretty damn good for town.

Algebra is most likely gonna die tonight; scum was predictable with last night's kill. Scum simply won't go for the un-CC'd BP now. Whereas, if they kept their mouth shut (assuming they are real BP - see above), scum would've gotten a solid chance at wasting a night by hitting the BP. That's not pretty damn good for town. And now that I'm thinking about it, couldn't you have just asked the whole town, "Should BP claim now?" That would've been so much better than the demand for a claim.

[Blawb]

Following up on the post above, Creeps mentioned that two people are mafia when he flips green. Hermie and PP. I think we all know why he said Hermie. PP, on the other hand, could either be the second mafia member or a reverse attempt at reverse psychology. It all depends on how deep Creeps goes. I guess it's all WIFOM, since it's either reverse psychology, a dumb scum play, or like, reverse reverse psychology.

Okay my final wish.
When I flip green penguin and hermie are maf.

Considering that Creeps just did not seem calculated at all, I'm willing to bet that he was actually hoping we'd lynch one of them as a final bluff. He had that state of mind where he would do anything to screw with us; he said he was a townie during Twilight period. If I was PP as scum, I'd probably be infuriated with Creeps at the dead giveaway. I'm interested in seeing what PP has to say about this.

All of that being said, I'm still undecided between PP and Thor for my vote today. A lot of you read Thor as a townie, but I want to look into him more myself before making a decision.

[mhsmith0]

Mhsmith seems to be tunneling on PP. I'm pulling the newbie card; I'm not sure if this is a townie move or a scum move. I could see the aggressive townie stance, but I could also see the scum trying to pull out their pitchforks to blend in with the mob. @Thor - This is a game theory question for you, I guess.

Game theory wise it could be either. If I'm the last scum and need to achieve three mislynches, PP is absolutely one of the players I'd need to mislynch. Mechanically, misa is clear, algebra is like 99% clear, basically he's clear barring aerin game throwing), which means the remainder is Hermie, PP, Thor, and you. All things considered, Hermie would be a difficult mislynch given his activity levels, and I don't recall his interactions with creeps looking like bussing at all, so if I'm the last scum, I probably want nothing to do with pressuring him. Of course, if I'm town then it's just an actual town read on his slot.

I'd actually say that what is most clearing for me is'nt what I'm doing D2, but what I did D1. Do you think that I bussed the roleblocker, especially given that said theoretical bus started BEFORE I'd found out whether Aelin was cop or jailkeeper? Just mechanically speaking, a bus of a roleblocker against cop/doctor (especially an outed cop) is HORRIBLE play, since the cop can be protected by the doctor and then you're basically in a lock loss situation unless you happen to hit the doctor N1 AND the cop doesn't peek you that night. And even in JK/BP, it's a difficult situation, since whoever is jailed is mechanically cleared, and the BP is another mechanical clear, which means that there are five non clear VT claims on the board, and you have to mislynch three of them. That's really difficult to pull off, all the more so since you no longer have the same kind of freedom to pick the players at night who you want gone.

Now, I'm not going to say that it's totally impossible for me to have bussed there, but I will say that it goes pretty decently against my meta (I very rarely bus - http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/thr ... e-Will-LOL is one of the very rare examples of me actively bussing a buddy from the start [as opposed to hopping on at the end or just distancing when I'm in a situation where I know I'm going down] ). For me to be the last goon, I'd have had to have chosen to bus the roleblocker when doing so would create an extra an unneccesary mechanical clear (algebra) AND a mislynch (PP in this case) was pretty reasonably on the board. If you go back to day one when Thor was pushing me to switch to PP, if I'm a goon that's an incredibly tempting moment to hop off onto PP and see what happens, potentially dumping the blame for the mislynch onto Thor if/as needed later on.

Bussing meta, fwiw, is actually why I'm somewhat suspicious of Thor. I know that he's talked before about basically never bussing, and that when he's mafia he finds cases of townies looking sketchy to push on instead of his buddy or buddies. So within that framework, it does seem like this game is decently within what Thor as mafia would be trying to do. Which is part of why I want PP sorted; if PP is mafia, then Thor pushing him over Creeps doesn't really matter. If PP is town, though, it looks worse.

[mhsmith0]

Off the top of my head, I'd say that among the non-cleared VT claims, Hermie looks very good given his D1 push on creeps, and it's very likely between PP, Thor, and Blawb. For each of those slots there's a thereotical framework for why they might "fit" as the last mafia:

PP - creeps didn't want to get on PP's counter-wagon (and shaded late in his ISO but didn't vote), PP shaded but didn't vote creeps

Thor - pushing a townie who looks bad instead of the roleblocker (and the RB is especially a slot that you don't want to bus on D1)
Re-skimming ISO's, I will say that Creeps spent a substantial amount of time D1 talking to Thor, which is something I don't normally expect from teammates,

Blawb - the Creeps wagon never quite got the kind of really aggressive resistance and counter-wagon that you might expect from a RB wagon, it's plausible that the reason for this was that his buddy was a total inactive

To me PP seems the likeliest. I'm curious what everyone else actually has to say, though. We're in a situation where we're doing really well, but it is NOT a locked game, and every lynch matters, so if there's a good case for PP as town, or an especially good case on someone else, I'd really like to hear it.

[Zaicon]

Vote Count 2.1

PenguinPower (2):

mhsmith0, Hermie

No Vote (5):

algebra, Blawb, MisaTange, PenguinPower, Thor665

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch!

Deadline is Sunday, November 6, 2016 at 4:00 PM CST, which is in (expired on 2016-11-06 16:00:00).

[Thor665]

Mhsmith seems to be tunneling on PP. I'm pulling the newbie card; I'm not sure if this is a townie move or a scum move. I could see the aggressive townie stance, but I could also see the scum trying to pull out their pitchforks to blend in with the mob.

@Thor - This is a game theory question for you, I guess.

Both of those things can and do happen - quite frankly, if you can find me an absolute scumtell that doesn't involve power roles or setup analysis, I will send you a giant bag of cash.

Vote: PenguinPower

Still on this.

@Penguin - I can (vaguely) see your argument for why BP was a good claim to force as town. But allow me to offer up a single scenario to prove that it is a bad play.
What if algebra was the BP?
Done.

[Hermie]

Penguin power is at l-1. Personally I'm comfortable with that Lynch but we should possibly wait a bit longer?

I haven't gone back and reread but from what I know of creeps he would be the type to stick a scum buddy in his twilight post...

Then again it is a wifom as to if he did or not. I guess I should reread Thor but he definitely helped push the creeps lynch. And day 1 bussing is nearly always a bad idea as far as I have read.

[Thor665]

I didn't push Creeps much.
I see no reason to extend the day. What do you think we gain by a longer day?

[Blawb]

I'm currently busy, so I only have time to post this quick message and skim the thread. I'm requesting that nobody hammer yet; I still want to look at a few things closer am she have a good post later today.

[mhsmith0]

I didn't push Creeps much.
I see no reason to extend the day. What do you think we gain by a longer day?

If penguin is in fact town, we get the chance for him to leave a legacy of reads and thoughts (instead of attempted self defense), and it's at least possible that in doing so he actually demonstrates that he's actually town. What do you think we gain from a day lasting well under 48 hours (other than the possibility of a quick win)?

[Hermie]

Thank-you mhsmith.. and I isoed Thor. He never did vote on creeps. I believe the reason I thought he was town was that he agreed with me on the RB slot. Which has been proved town. So add Thor to the lynch pool I guess..

[Thor665]

If penguin is in fact town, we get the chance for him to leave a legacy of reads and thoughts (instead of attempted self defense), and it's at least possible that in doing so he actually demonstrates that he's actually town. What do you think we gain from a day lasting well under 48 hours (other than the possibility of a quick win)?

If he's town we're going to ignore his reads - because he hasn't shown any particular insight.
If he's scum the reads will be distraction gak.
I don't think he'll do anyhting to demonstrate he's town, but I'm willing to sit around for a few days for you to all recognize that as true if you'd like.
I think what we gain from a short day is, if we don't win, keeping the town players excited and focused on the hunt as opposed to swimming in layers of paranoia - there's a reason why I always advocate long days when scum. The game is a grind, scum only need one player not to succumb to grind to increase their win chances, whereas town need 1+x where x equals the number of kills scum will be able to get off prior to lylo.

Thank-you mhsmith.. and I isoed Thor. He never did vote on creeps. I believe the reason I thought he was town was that he agreed with me on the RB slot. Which has been proved town. So add Thor to the lynch pool I guess..

Good iso work - probably the post where I said 'I didn't attack Creeps' might have sped things up

[PenguinPower]

I'm going to actually agree with Thor here. Seems like town is pretty set on my lynch today (which I'm fine with if it will get you all focused on Blawb or Thor afterward). I don't have any special insight, and my reads are going to be as good/poor as anyone else's. Just because I flip town doesn't make them suddenly awesome. Sucks to be down one town, but we hit the scum PR Day 1.

Someone may as well place an intent and we can go through the motions.

[Hermie]

Those are good reasons as well.. I guess I'd say if the bulletproof isn't gonna get countered I am fine with a hammer or actually maybe we should wait for 24 hrs just to let people check in... I don't care so long as pp gets lynched

[MisaTange]

The reason why I claimed is to create a townblock and finding scum via PoE. I get Smith's concerns, but I agree with PP in this case.

At any rate:

*expresses intent to hammer*

(even though I believe Creeps's twilight posts clears PP, but hey)

[MisaTange]

Should I hammer anyways?

Is there anything you guys need to discuss?

[Thor665]

There's not going to be a claim unless you're lying about your claim.
You also shouldn't vote people you think are town.4
PP's logic was poor in my opinion, and I second my thoughts on it to you if you thought it was good.

[mhsmith0]

@Misa: if you think that the twilight posts were clearing you should talk about why you think they were clearing and who is likeliest to be mafia instead. In the event that PP is actually town, dueling wagons that force the last mafia to take and justify a stand is not a bad thing.

[PenguinPower]

The reason why I claimed is to create a townblock and finding scum via PoE. I get Smith's concerns, but I agree with PP in this case.

At any rate:

*expresses intent to hammer*

(even though I believe Creeps's twilight posts clears PP, but hey)

You think I'm town, but you're going to hammer me anyway?

Bleh. VT, obviously.

[Hermie]

Miss seems to take things in the best possible light. Might not be all bad but personally I think sticking a scum bud in a twilight post is right up creeps line. He might know I would think that and thus insert some wifom. Pp is my top scum read tho, even without creeps mention of him. Miss who is your top scum read?

[PenguinPower]

Why am I your top scum read, Hermie? I didn't see your reasoning when you switched me from null to scum.

[Blawb]

Miss seems to take things in the best possible light. Might not be all bad but personally I think sticking a scum bud in a twilight post is right up creeps line. He might know I would think that and thus insert some wifom. Pp is my top scum read tho, even without creeps mention of him. Miss who is your top scum read?

Except that Creeps did mention him. As I stated in my post earlier.

So, here's where I'm at guys. I think that the scum lies between Smith and Thor. I'm sure of it. However, I do think that Thor is more scummy than Smith, because he's been virtually no help to the town as an IC, and tried leading the town off of Creeps' trail on D1. I wrote earlier about how his role as an IC might give him more "authority" over the town; it's my belief that he tried to use it to dissuade us. I've had a bad feeling about Thor from the get-go. While I wasn't able to iterate what about him was concerning to me then, I think I have enough evidence to be able to do so now.

Take a look at all of his posts in isolation. Throughout D1, most of his posts consisted of direct questions to multiple players. In my opinion, most of these questions led nowhere and were extremely unproductive. His interactions with Creeps were completely neutral; he didn't take a stand for or against Creeps at all. Instead, he pushed on RB and Hermie, two townies that were just as suspicious as the rest, but are now practically confirmed. While he's doing this, he emphasizes that a mislynch is ok:

So you're just saying things you don't understand/believe for the sake of conversation?

Yup. I do that a lot

Why do you think it helps town to occlude your honest opinions?

Most of the time they are wrong. There has been cases where I have lynched power roles due to my opinion being valued too strongly. I actually have a game on a different forum starting soon. I will be able to have much more useful opinions soon.

If you think your play will do nothing but lead to lynching PRs - what are you doing to improve your play?
Because lying about your opinions is (crazy hint) probably not good play.

Well can't afford a mislynch. If we must mislynch do it today. But we need full on scum hunting in order to preform such a task. No instant "oh you are scum" play yet.

We can afford multiple mislynches.
Statistically a mislynch Day 1 leads to more town wins than a no lynch.
So...

You are contributing absolutely nothing of value. If you are town, stop it.

I would suggest the same could be said of you.
Like I noted when asked about my issues with you (issues you didn't seem to care about - for now the second time demanding a case on you and then ignoring it) you're doing nothing but defending - even while claiming your defense is ignoring.
I'm also kind of miffed you ducked my questions to you.

VOTE: Hermie

This is pretty good for right now.

I find that a particularly bad vote right now.
Care to justify it so I can understand why it's good?
Hermie is probably my strongest town read at this moment. He's really the only person expressing a clear opinion on much of anything.

VOTE: Thor665

What sort of advantage do you expect to get by utterly random voting me?
Also, why did you not answer my other questions to you?

If this isn't enough, another thing that particularly bothered me was Post #205 (ISO #21) about the definition of critical thinking, in which he spent 4 paragraphs in rhetoric to attempt to escalate a meaningless conversation.

Did I mention that he tried to defend Creeps?

VOTE: Thor665

What sort of advantage do you expect to get by utterly random voting me?
Also, why did you not answer my other questions to you?[/quote]

Why the vote Thor?

Because I find him scummy, and don't find Creeps scummy.

Thor, could you explain why you're seemingly town reading him? I really don't get it.

He seems to be offering opinions and pressing reads. I haven't seen a scum case on him that makes sense.
Ergo - don't really see the scum Creep narrative.

What are you citing as the evidence that suggests he's scum exactly?

Maybe PP really is scum. Maybe Creeps did do the stupid thing and actually try the textbook dying mafia reverse psych trick. But I'm more convinced that Thor would be a better lynch today.

VOTE: Thor

If he flips townie, we can decide between myself, Smith, and PP tomorrow. But my gut says he's scum, and I can't vote PP against my better judgement in good conscience.

[Hermie]

Pp mostly because the general consensus was that you were scum... And I tend to roll with the crowd.. I will try to do better.

Other then that you seem to have nearly all very short posts. Some are intelligent and informed but you NEVER give a player list scum tell. You have some posts lately about who you think is town/maf but it seems like you aren't really saying who is what too much... Now I don't know if that is necessarily a scum tell. I guess I will

UNVOTE: PP and wait a bit and see what happens.

[Hermie]

I read fluff as scum and you have not posted much content this game imo