STEVEN UNIVERSE 2 - GAME OVER

[Almost50]

Also, my action succeeding when Snarky was supposed to roleblock me should also tell something, I don't think the mod would hide the fact I'm roleblock immune.

And it took you all this time to figure this out?? Mate, you're either scum to the bone or just bad to the core of your soul.

[Reasonably Rational]

Varsoon, VC please? We stole your page top, but a vc would be nice...

-Cerb

[Almost50]

Ooops! Sorry, V.

I never pay attention to pagetops.

[mastin2]

One of the things Titus wanted most was for us to get you involved and to get you to shake up and re-evaluate.

The idea of re-evaluating is not something which Titus apparently knows about me.

If she did, she'd know there would never be a need to ask that of me. Ever. Because I do it more consistently than any other player. My brain is wired specifically in such a way that it's impossible for me to

not

consider the options. Considering you as scum. Considering farside as scum. Considering kraskaesque as town. The like. I do that without any hesitation, without any prompt, automatically.

I simply choose to share virtually none of it, because I go with my internal sense of probabilities versus possibilities. It was possible, for instance, McMenno was scum. My internal list of probabilities told me he was town. It is possible one of you/farside/Almost50 is scum. My internal list of probabilities paints a picture of town. It is possible kraskaesque is town and I definitely recognize this strongly especially given my lack of familiarity of kraskaesque. But I hold to the probability of kraskaesque being scum.

I don't share every thought I have. If I did, I would be rambling all day about every little thing and my input would be worthless, because my opinion would mean nothing. So I choose to share my stronger thoughts. And my stronger thoughts do change, in some areas. Plenty of my reads have shifted! It's just that it takes quite a lot to have the weaker thought shift to become the stronger thought.

As for getting me involved: I

have

been. But I've never been getting my way. Not since day two, and even then I'm not absolutely sure. (I'd have to go check my posts to see if Mathblade was my preferred option, or just the option I defaulted to. They were far from my only lynch candidate, though. That much I'm sure of.) DGB was a lynch I supported because she was probably a traitor (and she was!), but I didn't want to lynch her because I knew she wasn't likely groupscum. And SnarkySnowman? A scumread, sure, but a compromise lynch; he was my secondary option. I've encountered great deals of resistance, insistence on lynching players that I don't think would be the best to lynch, so you really get what you'd expect from that: a high degree of bitterness whenever I feel like I've been ignored and/or been out of the loop, which...I basically have been the entire game.

What good are you as conftown if you won't lead?

I have led. Just not in the directions you or Titus would prefer me to have. The results of that divided leadership are evident enough. I'm pretty sure this is one of the largest games in mafiascum history, if not THE largest. (We're coming up on 400 pages.) What do you think a lot of that has been? Aside from Titus-farside fighting, it's mostly Titus-mastina fighting.

You asked earlier what my order would be.
It would be, at this point: TWIE (for the info) > kraskaesque (for the read) > evaluate the first two from there to figure out who next.
I don't yet have figured out the full list: Where to go next if TWIE=town; kraska=scum, if TWIE=scum; kraska=town, if both=town, or if both=scum. I probably should, but I don't. It's a lot of work, and I'm not exactly sure how I'd go about tackling the info. I could tell you a few things, but in spite of interactions being something I'm reasonably good at, I can't tell you with enough precision everything.

If kraska = scum and/or TWIE = town, then you can effectively clear farside. You might argue TWIE-town doesn't mean farside is town, but that requires an incredible violation of occam's razor to work: DGB HYPOTHETICALLY aligning with a player who happens to be scum, and HYPOTHETICALLY they have some way of knowing the finer details of the Beachapalooza event where they HYPOTHETICALLY have the foresight to plan out what they are going to do a full fucking day phase ahead and then HYPOTHETICALLY they happen to have perfectly coordinated without even taking into account the new info Titus's confirmation provided, because DGB needs a HYPOTHETICAL way to communicate with her scumbuddies when BY HER ROLE PM--and also BY SIRCAKEZ'S ROLE PM--she and the scumteam could not communicate.

If your theory is something like farside didn't start as scum but became scum later: again, this is a stretch, because it requires that HYPOTHETICALLY farside was 3p with no town side whatsoever, and HYPOTHETICALLY joined at

this specific time

. Assumption after assumption after assumption is needed to justify this belief.

Ergo, if either TWIE flips town or kraska flips scum, farside is as far as I'm concerned 100% clear and I'd rather lynch

you

than her at that point. (Well, kraska flipping scum would clear you, so not then, butstill.)

And let's say neither happens. Let's say TWIE flips scum. Well, then! That means...we lynched a fucking scumbag. That's why TWIE is my preferred lynch today. If he's town, we 100% clear both farside and grapes. If he's scum, we don't, but hey we lynched scum so win anyway.

I'm honestly not sure what the scumteam's composition is. I have individual scumreads. I don't have anything tied together. Just a POE pool.

if we were to ally, you can't talk to us but we could talk to you?

Nope, there's no communication whatsoever. If there was any pro-town benefit to my alliance power, I would be using it more openly.

[Varsoon]

Varsoon, VC please? We stole your page top, but a vc would be nice...

-Cerb

I'll get you hooked up with one shortly.

[mastin2]

What rational reason is there to arrive at the conclusion that Farside is town?

Aside from the Beachapalooza event? Which, by the way, should be evidence enough.

I have already explained this.

I see no scum motivation in farside's actions whatsoever.

I see motivation from farside's actions which make a ton of sense coming from the viewpoint of a player with her role and with her personality.
If farside is scum, that would require an

epic

level of manipulation on her part to maintain. Any crack where scum motive could show would instantly end her, yet I've seen none. Believe me! I've looked. But I don't see her doing what she has done as scum. All I see is circumstantial evidence which is more hearsay than actual proof of anything. "She did this, then scum did this, that can't be coincidence". That about sums up the case against farside.

But I'm sorry.
That's not something which will convince me.

A lot of the reasons for lynching farside are fearmongering. "What if". A lot of the reasons for lynching farside feel like policy. "She's proven a bad track record with these actions, who's to say she'll get any better?" A lot of the reasons for lynching farside feel like they are lynching a player for objectively bad play, ignoring subjectively whether that play makes more sense coming from town or from scum and the answer for me overwhelmingly is more sense from town.

And with all-due respect.
You basically just told me to reconsider my stance on the gems being town.
That's not exactly something which endears me to the idea of the farside lynch being benign.

[Creature]

Also, my action succeeding when Snarky was supposed to roleblock me should also tell something, I don't think the mod would hide the fact I'm roleblock immune.

And it took you all this time to figure this out?? Mate, you're either scum to the bone or just bad to the core of your soul.

I already figured this out long ago, just reminding I am not lying.

[mastin2]

Why does that make you feel better about them?

Simple.
Skybird was scum.
She apparently did not know who the crystal gems were.
If she did not in fact know who the crystal gems were...
...Then the crystal gems could, by definition, not contain a scumbuddy.

[mastin2]

So basically town with an extra win condition?

I mean.

I had basically the exact same thing in my game, pragmatically speaking.
Sure, theoretically, the New Humanity Treaty wincon

could

produce a scumteam in the form of both the URS and the individual nosferatu, but in practice, their wincon was "eliminate the scum, with one of your own still alive". Virtually identical.

And the players who are crystal gems weren't in Gistou, to my knowledge. Unless they randomly thought to read that game and fake my game's wincon, they wouldn't have knowledge of it. Also, in spite of me having been inspired by Varsoon's moderation and being rather open about this fact, I don't think Varsoon himself read Gistou and even if he did this game was probably in development long before the conclusion (or maybe even conception) of Gistou so it's not like he could have copied me as a suggested fakeclaim for them. (I actually find it a bit humorous, in fact. By complete coincidence, he and I had basically the same idea.)

[Creature]

Okay then.

[Creature]

Who's most likely scum there?

[Creature]

besides TWIE

[mastin2]

Anyone else notice how the entire wagon on twie is people who would otherwise be lynched today (with the exception of mastin)?

I am aware.

I also don't care, in part because is that not valuable information in of itself to have if TWIE flips town? It confirms farside as town and tells rather a lot about both kraska and Creature, I feel.

[mastin2]

To be honest I am conflicted between my days old strong townread and what happened last day far.
Why you do this to me far

Really want Shiro dead, btw.

TWIE's play this game has been fairly atrocious, so there's a 50/50 chance on his alignment between town/scum. He's my first pick for a lynch.
kraska's play this game has been basically pure scumposting the entire time. The only thing keeping kraska from being pure scum is a combination of unfamiliarity with kraska's playstyle and mechanics reducing the probability of kraska being scum. So, about 75%.
Behind them, we get an order that is, approximately:
Shiro > Creature > Shadow_step > Thefuzzylogic.

The reason for this is simple: I haven't vocalized this until now, but the thought IMMEDIATELY crossed my mind that scum might have had an inside man in the Titus/Shiro/RR alliance, with me personally feeling RR is less likely. (Impossible, if kraska flips scum.) Then there's Shiro's absolute lack of contribution to the game. Shiro is, and has been, essentially prod-dodging ever since being "cleared". Maybe there's some behind-the-scenes work...but if so, then that in of itself is suspect, because again: it's something only select players can see. It's something that is easily manipulated. It's something that targets a specific player to make them think better of you. See also, SirCakez D1, or what I did this game. (There's a damn good reason I said me working in just the PT should've been a scumclaim!)

Creature has been a townread. I liked the usage of the Keep Beach City Weird power. I also have, at times, echoed Creature's thoughts pretty well, and yet, they were different enough that Creature was definitely not sheeping me. What I don't like is Creature's play this game phase, among other things, his way of insisting he's confirmed town. I'm not quite sure if he's scum or not, but I certainly wouldn't miss him at this point if he flipped town.

Shadow_step is similar: he basically claims his power confirms him as town. He has also been a townread, particularly with things such as his fight with players like kraskaesque. But with a change of tone in his posts, he's someone I can't confidently write off as town. He is, however, not a priority.

Thefuzzylogic is last on the list, because of a combination of play and mechanics. While I don't like the way he used his power, similar to farside, I do not think that the way he used it is indicative of scum. (This, by the way, is something I'd like to ask RR about: why do you think TFL's usage of his power is indicative of town, whereas farside's usage of her power isn't? Neither used it optimally. Both were objectively antitown plays to make. My stance is that they are both motivated by town mindsets and they simply thought they knew better, essentially. Yours is...somehow one town one scum.)

Furthermore, of them, TFL has been the slot most consistently actually contributing content. His content is

bad

, mind you--very easy to be faked by scum. VERY easy. There's a damn good reason he's in the POE lynch pool, after all. But it's still CONTENT. And furthermore, he's very upfront and honest about everything, not bothering to hide, not bothering to hold back. I can't say the same of any of the above. Additionally, I liked Seraphim's posts. That may have been way back on D1, but it holds true even now.

But this is individual player analysis. It does not take into account interactions, and would not take into account flips. Any combination of townflips to scumflips would change nothing about this order right now. Or in other words, my reads wouldn't change if proven wrong.

[Reasonably Rational]

TFL triggering his power the way he did was antitown, yes...but him choosing to not execute a town slot when there would have been no repercussions towards him for doing so is a strong argument against him as scum.

No such mitigating circumstances exist for Farside. She took the kill on town, rather than passing by on it (and unlike D3, she didn't have a shot of lynchproof to give her reason to not take the shot).

-Cerb

[mastin2]

So ask yourself – does Town who has an investigative role decide to not investigate a claimed scum read (Like, for instance, RR or Almost since Skybird was about to be killed by Xk) over someone they’d never mentioned at all?

Um, MoI.

That's exactly what I did.

I chose specifically to investigate TWIE, someone I was specifically avoiding mentioning, as to not give away my investigation choice.

[mastin2]

At this point, by the way, I feel I can give an actual readslist.
grapes
farside22
Almost50
MagnaofIllusion
randomidget
Reasonably Rational
TheFuzzylogic99
Shadow_Step
TheWayItEnds
Creature
Shiro
Kraskaeaque

More or less.
TWIE is a lesser scumread than Shiro, though he and Creature may or may not be in the right order. (They're pretty equal.) He's my top lynch candidate, but he's not my top scumread. See also: we get good info if he's town (clearing two players) and lynch scum if he's scum.

[Reasonably Rational]

At this point, by the way, I feel I can give an actual readslist.
grapes
farside22
Almost50
MagnaofIllusion
randomidget
Reasonably Rational
TheFuzzylogic99
Shadow_Step
TheWayItEnds
Creature
Shiro
Kraskaeaque

More or less.
TWIE is a lesser scumread than Shiro, though he and Creature may or may not be in the right order. (They're pretty equal.) He's my top lynch candidate, but he's not my top scumread. See also: we get good info if he's town (clearing two players) and lynch scum if he's scum.

Can you explain grapes, without assuming TWIE is town and thus the claim that skybirds action claim is guaranteed to be true is correct?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

What rational reason is there to arrive at the conclusion that Farside is town?

Aside from the Beachapalooza event? Which, by the way, should be evidence enough.

I have already explained this.

I see no scum motivation in farside's actions whatsoever.

I see motivation from farside's actions which make a ton of sense coming from the viewpoint of a player with her role and with her personality.
If farside is scum, that would require an

epic

level of manipulation on her part to maintain. Any crack where scum motive could show would instantly end her, yet I've seen none. Believe me! I've looked. But I don't see her doing what she has done as scum. All I see is circumstantial evidence which is more hearsay than actual proof of anything. "She did this, then scum did this, that can't be coincidence". That about sums up the case against farside.

But I'm sorry.
That's not something which will convince me.

A lot of the reasons for lynching farside are fearmongering. "What if". A lot of the reasons for lynching farside feel like policy. "She's proven a bad track record with these actions, who's to say she'll get any better?" A lot of the reasons for lynching farside feel like they are lynching a player for objectively bad play, ignoring subjectively whether that play makes more sense coming from town or from scum and the answer for me overwhelmingly is more sense from town.

And with all-due respect.
You basically just told me to reconsider my stance on the gems being town.
That's not exactly something which endears me to the idea of the farside lynch being benign.

Two things. Firstly ... it's shitty that there's no communication by allying with you. We could infodump an absurd amount of info to you that you probably don't have and would help when you eventually step forward and take charge. We'll get the hell out of the way and just give our opinion if it means you'll actively play the game. An engaged and pushing Mastin is way better than what we're getting right now. Remember ... we've seen you at your best, and from your thread input, this isn't it. (No offense intended here; I'm trying to motivate).

As for Farside: the biggest thing I can't get around is how she handled ending the day yesterday. We

KNOW

Varsoon has been busy because he has said so, is not snagging page tops or giving vote counts nearly as often as normal, etc... which means the simplest explanation (invoking OR since you did first) is that Farside ensured he was around before she made her move and ended the day. There is no way to argue what she did was anything but scummy. Her action resulted in:

1.) Stress remaining at -4 when I believe both the gems and Kraska had set up triggers to increase stress at a certain vote threshold (correct me if I'm wrong; that's my understanding of where the gamestate was). That meant the scum could take out any target they wanted and nothing could prevent it.

2.) Exactly ONE alliance happening today, which just happened to be Farside. The problem with that is that Farside had firmly agreed to ally with Titus and they were supposedly going to sort their differences. She never took back her agreement to ally. So she effectively

lied to confirmed town

about it. Furthermore, Titus had claimed that her BP was contingent upon being allied, so Farside lied to Conftown in such a way that said Conftown would be vulnerable due to having no alliance the next night.

3.) I know you consider this circumstantial, but in light of the above two points: then a scum event was triggered in which only people who were allied could vote. It's sheer luck that someone could expend their role utility to both move stress and blow up the scum event. The fact that Farside

intentionally

initiated a situation where there would be very few alliances, lied to conftown (which would give the ability to kill Titus if something during the night had been able to take away the scum unblockable kill, btw) and also gave no warning and ensured the mod was around to end the day and lock as soon as she did it, and then the event came along that just happened to perfectly synergize with her actions?

If you want to argue that 3 is just co-incidence ... I'm not going to fight you over it. There's enough that's objectively scummy and unexplainable about her behavior if I assume town!farside that I don't have to fight over stuff that cannot be explicitly tied to her actions.

---

As for the gems, please consider the following: If the crystal gems (who are a third faction with a hidden win condition) really is simply a town faction with a different flavor but is for all intents and purposes town, then the following is true:

1.) At game start there were SEVEN slots who would never, under any circumstance, be possible to mislynch.
1a.) You (mod confirmed town to Yume to the thread), Titus (IC), the five gems (all are outed and most were obvious very early and in fact they leaked enough that we realized there was a separate faction super early)
1b.) The five gems are a very large masonry who started with night chat (standard for masons) but now apparently have day and night chat.

Use your setup mindset for a moment and tell me how you balance a game when nearly 1/3 of the slots can never be mislynched

AND

those slots are super powerful and have very strong protection.

HINT: Stress mechanic isn't the answer. Stress change isn't immediate so the stress shouldn't ever actually hit -4 ever in practice. It only did because of Farside's move. Take today, for example: Assuming we lynch scum, the flip will be delayed so the night begins with the scum not having unblockable kill. Scum presumably will kill someone so when the flip does happen, the gems simply flip one of the scum kills and ensure stress never hits -4.

Now ... with all of that said: my best guess is that the gems can win either with town or they can win by themselves. It's

possible

that they could win with scum, but that seems really unlikely to me for numerous reasons. Being in the possibility space makes it something to note just in case, but it isn't a top priority.

The point is: gems aren't town and we don't apparently get to know whether or not they need any town to win. We do know; however, that WE need an Earth aligned player alive to win. That means that we absolutely cannot win if all of us who are Earth aligned are dead.

The gems have claimed they also need an Earth aligned player left alive to win. That means that since the gems are outed, the scum team only has to kill off the others in order to win, if the gems are telling the truth. The problem with that is that we've SEEN the scum win condition. So if the gems cannot win once the last Earth aligned player is dead, the best they can do is play for a draw at that point because the scum win condition is: "In order to win the game, your faction must equal or exceed the number of other surviving players left alive." according to the flips.

So logically speaking, it seems most likely that the crystal gems can win alone

or

share a win with town. It does not make sense for the win condition they claimed to be true, because it basically takes a whole chunk of people and makes them unlynchable and it also greatly reduces the mislynches scum need to get into a position where the worst they get is a draw. It therefore seems far more likely to me that the gems can either win alone or have a shared win with town. I don't believe it logically holds to assume they must have an earth aligned player alive in order to win. That would result in "everyone loses" a lot of the time, and I can tell you from bitter experience that investing for hundreds of pages for a "You all lose! Nobody wins!" is really fucking infuriating and I simply don't think Varsoon would do that.

Cue MoI to come call me scum for using sound logic to point out why the win condition his faction has claimed doesn't make any sense and is therefore probably a lie.

~Drixx

P-edit: So the difference between Fuzzy and Farside, in my view, is very clear. I outlined the specific reasons why Farside's actions are crazy scummy. I also would appreciate it if nobody loses their shit because I just took the time to point out why it's almost certain the crystal gems have lied about their win condition. Given the site's intolerance of third parties, it's an understandable lie. I personally would have just been honest, but I'm not a crystal gem and therefore had no chance to argue that they should follow the old "honesty is the best policy" route.

In other words ... there should be burning at the stake of the Crystal Gems. I can think of only one plausible win condition where the Crystal Gems and scum would win together and it wouldn't really be a "win" for the CG's in terms of flavor. It would basically mean that the threats to earth (homeworld gems, from what we've seen) succeed and somehow that results in the CG's joining them. And that's only just barely plausible, considering the flavor.

I can also think of one specific win condition which, if it happens to be the actual win condition the gems have, not only excuses the lie but makes it necessary. If that happens to be the actual win condition, the CG's have my apology now and after the game. I'm posting that win condition on our hydra PT so you guys can check after the game.

[Reasonably Rational]

Sorry for the wall post. There's a lot in there. The part under the line is a logical reasoning for why we have suspected the Crystal Gems are not being honest with us. I'm tired of it because every time I point it out, MoI suddenly scum reads us and I'm hoping that this can just put an end to it.

~Drixx

[farside22]

shiro I'm an emotional person that takes things personallynch. I'm working on trying to curb that.

This seems a little too arrogant

yet your voting me. Fasinating

And I see rr ranting more while ignoring many gaps in logic.

Joy.

[Creature]

I think I am just scumread because of my results.

[Creature]

I don't want to defend that I can still be town out of my results as it can still be used against me no matter how towny I am.

[Creature]

I think this game should be locked if farside22 can't win with scum.

[Reasonably Rational]

And I see rr ranting more while ignoring many gaps in logic.

Joy.

The only gap in my logic about the gems is the stress mechanic. Due to the delayed flips mechanic, we should never go into a night phase with stress at -4. It's not actually logically true that we should never hit -4 ... it's just that the delayed flips mechanic means that (barring people suddenly and unilaterally ending the day) there should never be a case where the day ends with stress at -4, and Varsoon made it very clear that stress changes during the night phase don't impact actions, etc...

Apart from that mistake I made in phrasing, the logic is sound. We tripled checked.

Now ... if you are talking about me pointing out that you ended yesterday in the scummiest possible fashion ... that's opinion.

~Drixx