STEVEN UNIVERSE 2 - GAME OVER

mastin2 · Post Post #10100 (ISO) » Mon Oct 31, 2016 11:26 am

In post 10067, grapes wrote:I don't know I feel like I'd much rather lynch the ones who've ceased all gamesolving.
shiro/kraska/twie

That is more or less my lynch order.
TWIE > kraskaesque > Shiro is mine.
Further down the line, you get Creature > Shadow_step, for a combination of reasons.

I like kraska and Shiro for scum. Creature I don't feel as being scum, but that's a weak gut read and I recognize could be wrong.
Shadow_step is a POE scumread, in that there are plenty of good reasons for him to not be scum (especially if kraska is scum), but none of them are enough to remove him from the lynchpool altogether. Simply place him at the back of it, as unlikely yet not impossible scum.

mastin2 · Post Post #10101 (ISO) » Mon Oct 31, 2016 11:30 am

In post 10072, grapes wrote:What's his scum strategy going into this? Bus cakes and then turn around based on some arbitrary reads or w/e?
BTW creature's a good scumhunter I think what's more likely that happens is he nailed him on having a shifty read progression on him (makes sense from a town pov because I and a lot of other people track others reads on myself as a means of reading people) but then we town heard on cakes a bit and creatures paranoia as town thinking that there's too much hype surrounding cakes (especially on day 1) and seeing cakes town up a smidge (and yea, not gonna act like cakes didn't make a decent post or two) makes him turn around; and go right to pushing other things.
Yea, the kraska hydra has made some pretty walls here and there. That doesn't make them town.

All valid.

mastin2 · Post Post #10102 (ISO) » Mon Oct 31, 2016 11:35 am

In post 10082, Almost50 wrote:ISO Titus to get a neat table then myself for some minor remarks.

Said iso table is also inaccurate because one, I was never allied with Yume (that was an ability), and two, I was allied with McMenno every phase except the pregame-to-D1. (So, selected him N1 for all future times up to his death.)

The table was never properly fixed.

In post 10094, grapes wrote:I'd lynch em both if I could.

Unfortunately, a Shiro lynch is about realistic as a kraskaesque lynch.
Both have the highest chance of flipping scum of any players, sure, but neither are going to go through today.

The only viable lynch in Shiro/kraska/TWIE is TWIE.

mastin2 · Post Post #10103 (ISO) » Mon Oct 31, 2016 11:56 am

Also, basically, at this stage...who can the scum actually

be

?

Serious question, when you think about things.
farside being scum has a

prerequisite

of TWIE being scum, so we flip TWIE first and if he's town farside is too; if he's scum, we can revisit the idea of farside being scum though I have highlighted my reasons for why I doubt this to be true.
If we get a scum lynch in the top-voters (such as, say, kraskaesque), we inherently clear the others (Almost50, RR, and farside in this case).
The crystal gems are not groupscum, period.
grapes is cleared by TWIE's result and is basically a universal townread even without the result. (And I've voiced my opinion on why TWIE is unlikely to have lied about this even if he is scum.)

So the possible scum groups are:
Almost50/farside22/Reasonably Rational/kraskaeaque (0-1 scum in here, no more)
...And:
Shadow_Step/Shiro/TheFuzzylogic99/Creature/TheWayItEnds

We have a good POE pool there, especially in the latter group. It's just a matter of interactions.
TWIE flipping town clears farside. I also am basically at the point where if Almost50 is scum I've conceded defeat and as far as I know every other player is at that point as well since he is a universal townread on the same tier as grapes. Meaning that if TWIE flips town, the only possible scum up there are RR and kraskaesque. If TWIE flips scum, again, farside becomes possible, but hey, if that happens we lynched scum. (Again, why TWIE is the superior lynch for today.)
We also have some decent interactions. Certain teams are less likely than others.

None of this is new stuff. It's simple processing of basic facts.
We have either two, or three, scum in the second group.
We have either zero, or one, scum in the first group.

Lynching Creature narrows the second group, sure, but it tells us nothing about the first group.
Lynching TWIE narrows the second group, while also telling us facts about the first group.
Also, ask yourself:

What does Creature flipping town/scum mean to you?
Creature flipping town means there's still 2-3 scum in the second group and nothing more to me. Creature flipping scum means there's 1-2 scum in the second group still and there's maybe a chance useful info can be gleaned from the extra scum body interactions-wise but nothing concrete as far as I can tell.

What does TWIE flipping town/scum mean?
TWIE flipping town means there's still 2-3 scum in the second group and that farside from the first group is 100% town. TWIE flipping scum means there's still 1-2 scum in the second group and we can look at all this pressure on Creature to determine if Creature is a scumbuddy or if scum were trying to save TWIE by going for Creature instead.

Ergo, lynch TWIE.

mastin2 · Post Post #10104 (ISO) » Mon Oct 31, 2016 12:07 pm

As for me, personally.
I'll be honest.
If TWIE flips town, I don't actually have a clue who the scumteam will be right now. Creature is someone I'm increasingly feeling isn't scum. Shadow_step has some fairly decent reasons for not being scum. I've held Thefuzzylogic as being a townread. Yet of them, a TWIE townflip

necessitates

one being scum, because even

with

Shiro as scum, and one of the top-voters (RR/kraska) as scum, there's a missing slot. If TWIE flips town, we definitely lynch either RR or kraskaesque though, and if a townflip lynch the other, because to my memory, there's no 3-man combo of Shiro/Creature/Fuzzy/Shadow which is particularly viable.

If TWIE flips scum, I'll admit farside being scum is possible. But I don't particularly think it's probable. At this stage, I mostly think that TWIE flipping scum means kraska and Shiro are scum as well, with an outside shot at RR replacing TWIE. (RR has done an awful lot to specifically avoid joining a wagon which makes an awful lot of sense.) Though, if RR were scum, Shiro probably wouldn't be. (I do not believe scumbuddies would be vouching so hard for each other.)

So, TWIE flipping scum = kraska + Shiro, or RR + Creature/Fuzzy/Shadow in all likelihood.

I don't exactly have what would be called a solid plan.

But I feel like of all the players here, I'm the closest to having anything approaching a semblance of one.

mastin2 · Post Post #10105 (ISO) » Mon Oct 31, 2016 12:16 pm

This all being said.
MoI being right about both Creature and RR being scum would be tipping-my-hat-worthy, and it's not like it's entirely out of the question; there's a damn-good reason he has the title that he has. But personally, I don't think it's true.
If RR is scum, then the most likely buddies would be Fuzzy/Shadow.
RR being scum isn't impossible with TWIE as town, but is unlikely unless both TWIE and Creature are town, because RR's stance on the two wagons we have right now is weird, to say the least.

I'd put it this way. RR as scum has scumbuddies in about this order: TWIE > Fuzzy/Shadow > Creature > Shiro. (kraska and farside are impossible.)

RR as town is more likely than RR being scum, though, because there's only a few very select scumteams where it's viable for them to be scum.

TheWayItEnds · Post Post #10106 (ISO) » Mon Oct 31, 2016 12:19 pm

oh hey this is back.

mastin2 · Post Post #10107 (ISO) » Mon Oct 31, 2016 12:25 pm

So, basically:
TWIE as scum has scumbuddies as kraskaesque > Shiro > Fuzzy/Shadow/Creature OR RR > Fuzzy/Shadow > Creature > Shiro.
RR as scum has scumbuddies as TWIE > Fuzzy/Shadow > Creature > Shiro.
kraskaesque as scum has scumbuddies as Shiro > TWIE > Fuzzy/Shadow/Creature.
farside as scum has scumbuddies as TWIE (a necessity) > Fuzzy/Shadow/Creature.
Creature as scum has scumbuddies as kraskaesque > Shiro > Fuzzy/Shadow > RR > farside.
Shiro as scum has scumbuddies as kraskaesque > TWIE > Fuzzy/Shadow/Creature > RR > farside.

Ideally, all of those ties would be sorted, and that's one of the main efforts I'm trying to work on: getting the currently-tied people to...not be tied.

mastin2 · Post Post #10108 (ISO) » Mon Oct 31, 2016 12:28 pm

(If you're wondering what the "as town" lists would be: fuck that, that's too much work to figure out and is largely worthless and conjunction/speculation anyway. The as-scum lists have actual logic based on their in-thread behaviors combined with mechanics at hand. With some speculation, admittedly, but FAR less than an as-town one would have.)

Reasonably Rational · Post Post #10109 (ISO) » Mon Oct 31, 2016 1:04 pm

@Mastin: I've avoided joining any wagons other than farside's because I didn't want to enable her votes. NOW though, I think both other wagons are past the threshold, so a farside lynch is basically impossible without a bunch of unvoting, since she can just hammer either one.

With that said, your line of reasoning regarding TWIE makes a fuckton of sense, and Drixx did say that he wanted you playing the game and to get out of your way. I'll check in with him, but given his position that twie should be gamesolving by D6, and our proximity to said day,I'm pretty sure that Drixx will agree that TWIE is objectively the best lynch for today, EVEN in the face of the numerous reasons to suspect Creature.

VOTE: TWIE

-Cerb

Creature · Post Post #10110 (ISO) » Mon Oct 31, 2016 1:08 pm

VOTE: TWIE

TWIE: kraska, mastin2, RR, me

grapes unvoted

mastin2 · Post Post #10111 (ISO) » Mon Oct 31, 2016 1:17 pm

Yellow = bottom voter; cyan = top voter.
I want people to take a look at a few key VCs and see what they think about it. If you have knowledge of what dead players said about them, share any relevant parts they said, too.

In post 7576, Varsoon wrote:
farside22
(9):

Titus, SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion
,
TheWayItEnds
,
grapes
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Skybird
,
Yume, Xkfyu

DrippingGoofball
(6):

Shiro
, Thefuzzylogic99
,
Not Chara, McMenno
,
Creature
,
farside22

Shadow_Step
(2):

kraskaeaque
,
Firebringer

Creature
(1):

Almost50

Xkfyu
(1):

Shadow_Step

Not Voting (3):

Reasonably Rational
,
mastin2, randomidget

In post 8089, Varsoon wrote:
farside22
(LYNCH?):

Titus, SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion
,
TheWayItEnds
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Skybird
,
Yume, Xkfyu, Not Chara, McMenno
,
kraskaeaque
, Almost50

DrippingGoofball
(3):

Shiro
, Thefuzzylogic99, Creature

SnarkySnowman
(3):

mastin2, grapes
,
farside22

kraskaesque
(1):

Shadow_Step

Shadow_Step
(1):

Firebringer

Not Voting (2):

Reasonably Rational
,
randomidget

In post 8412, Varsoon wrote:
SnarkySnowman
(7):

McMenno
,
farside22
,
Titus, Not Chara, grapes, mastin2
,
TheWayItEnds

DrippingGoofball
(4):

Thefuzzylogic99
,
SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion
,
Creature

farside22
(1):

Almost50

Not Voting (9):

Shadow_Step
,
Xkfyu
,
Skybird
,
Shiro
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Reasonably Rational,
kraskaeaque
,
Firebringer, randomidget

In post 8587, Varsoon wrote:
DrippingGoofball
(LYNCH):

Thefuzzylogic99
,
SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion
,
Creature
,
Titus
,
Shiro
,
Firebringer, grapes, McMenno
,
farside22
,
Not Chara

SnarkySnowman
(2):

mastin2
,
TheWayItEnds

farside22
(1):

Almost50

Shadow_Step
(1):

kraskaeaque

Not Voting (5):

Shadow_Step
,
Xkfyu
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Reasonably Rational
,
randomidget

Creature · Post Post #10112 (ISO) » Mon Oct 31, 2016 1:21 pm

It's worth noting that it's likely the scum team didn't know DGB was the traitor.

mastin2 · Post Post #10113 (ISO) » Mon Oct 31, 2016 1:25 pm

I have some pretty important thoughts on the second and third in particular, for those who are wondering what I'm getting at. All four I feel were at a really critical stage of the game in telling us relevant information.

That's not to say other VCs can't give good analysis, either before or after. (Though most of the after-DGB ones are highly subjective--I already looked at them.)
But these four VCs show something really relevant to the current gamestate, and I'm wondering who else here can see what I'm seeing with them.

mastin2 · Post Post #10114 (ISO) » Mon Oct 31, 2016 1:27 pm

In post 10112, Creature wrote:It's worth noting that it's likely the scum team didn't know DGB was the traitor.

Humor me, then. What do you think the scumteam not knowing DGB = traitor does to the VCs?

And even if you don't think that's the case...what would your analysis be if you assume the scumteam was

assuming

DGB was the traitor? Does it change anything?

I want you to give both versions if they differ, even if you believe the former over the latter.

Creature · Post Post #10115 (ISO) » Mon Oct 31, 2016 1:28 pm

You mean scum distribution (scumputer)?

Creature · Post Post #10116 (ISO) » Mon Oct 31, 2016 1:34 pm

They weren't sure DGB was scum, so that could have been three town wagons and scum just need to take their pick. If they assumed DGB was the traitor, I don't know how they would act.

If you mean scum distribution, then no.

Creature · Post Post #10117 (ISO) » Mon Oct 31, 2016 1:35 pm

Nvm, I noticed DGB claimed traitor to Klingoncelt, so that was a huge hint she was a traitor.

mastin2 · Post Post #10118 (ISO) » Mon Oct 31, 2016 1:48 pm

Oh and by the way, just as a reminder (not related to the previous, but which I saw as part of my Varsoon iso):

In post 3223, Varsoon wrote:
SirCakez
(LYNCH):

Not Chara, mastin2, Obi-Wan Kenobi/Titus, McMenno, grapes
,
Shiro
,
Xkfyu, SnarkySnowman, Yume
,
kraskaeaque
,
Klingoncelt
,
Reasonably Rational

farside22
(3):

killthestory/MagnaofIllusion, Firebringer
,
Almost50

Shiro
(2):

farside22
,
Skybird

McMenno
(2):

CooLDoG/Loopdan/Mathblade
,
Thefuzzylogic99

Obi-Wan Kenobi/Titus
(1):

SirCakez

Not Voting (5):

Foxbird/Twin Wings/Shadow_step
,
randomidget
,
TheWayItEnds
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Creature

Do you believe the wagon on SirCakez was all town?

If so, where are the scum outside? You have Fuzzy/Shadow_step/TWIE/Creature, but aside from fuzzy, they're all Not Voting--so a follow-through to the question would be: WHY would there be an all-town wagon, with the majority of the scum Not Voting, giving absolutely no resistance? This is something VERY important I want an answer from RR in particular on: if the wagon on SirCakez was all town, why are there no signs of serious scum resistance? Skybird wasn't even applying her double-vote! (At least, if the VC is correct.)

If not, here's an important question to RR:

who is the scum on it?

You obviously know your own alignment, but what of Shiro and kraskaesque? They're literally the only possible names to be scum if you don't think the wagon is all-town.
Though I can ask that same question of everyone.

Essentially, what I'm saying here is:
If this is an all-town lynch, it makes no sense. Scum are not applying any resistance to the wagon whatsoever. Skybird wasn't voting at full strength, and the VAST majority of our uncleared players were in the Not Voting category.
If this is not an all-town lynch, there are only three slots which have not been explicitly cleared: Shiro, kraskaesque, and Reasonably Rational.

Is it any wonder I hold the Shiro/kraskaesque suspicion I do?

mastin2 · Post Post #10119 (ISO) » Mon Oct 31, 2016 2:18 pm

A tl;dr for now of this past page:

Play-based analysis:

TWIE: kraska>Shiro>Fuzzy/Shadow/Creature
OR
TWIE: RR>Fuzzy/Shadow>Creature>Shiro.
RR: TWIE>Fuzzy/Shadow>Creature>Shiro.
kraska: Shiro>TWIE>Fuzzy/Creature>Shadow. (I don't know why I didn't have Shadow at the back already, butyeah.)
farside: TWIE(necessity)>Fuzzy/Shadow/Creature.
Creature: kraska>Shiro>Fuzzy/Shadow>RR>farside.
Shiro: kraska>TWIE>Fuzzy/Shadow/Creature>RR>farside.

Key Votecounts:

SirCakez was all-town except for Shiro/kraska/RR;
Shadow/TWIE/Creature all on Not Voting.
Fuzzy on McMenno.

farside was voted by TWIE, DGB, and Skybird;
DGB was voted by Shiro, Fuzzy, Creature, and farside.
kraska was voting Shadow.

farside was later voted by TWIE/DGB/Skybird/kraska;
DGB was voted by Shiro/Fuzzy/Creature.
Shadow was voting kraska.

SnarkySnowman was voted by guaranteed-all-town save farside/TWIE;
DGB was voted by Fuzzy/Creature.

DGB was voted by Fuzzy/Creature/Shiro/farside.
TWIE voted Snarky;
kraska voted Shadow.

I'm trying to gather thoughts on these, and I do have some already, but I want to hear feedback on what these mean from others.

mastin2 · Post Post #10120 (ISO) » Mon Oct 31, 2016 3:02 pm

By the way: private gamesolving mode was engaged.
If TWIE flips town, I've narrowed the probabilities down to four possible scumteams. Two of them with both Shiro/kraska in them, two with only one of them. (There is actual analytical reasoning for at least one of them to be scum ASIDE FROM the SirCakez lynch--holding tight to my chest the exact reasoning right now. I guarantee you, absolutely guarantee you, that if TWIE flips town, a minimum of one of them

must

be scum.)

If TWIE flips scum, it gets a bit more difficult; I've got six possible scumteams: one is Shiro/kraska, and then Shiro appears individually in one scumteam and kraska individually in one other scumteam.

I'm not sure if I want to share my logic, but before day's end, I should definitely share which combos I have in mind.

mastin2 · Post Post #10121 (ISO) » Mon Oct 31, 2016 3:06 pm

Slight preview though:
TWIE flipping town gives me a lynch order of kraska > Shiro > Fuzzy > Creature;
TWIE flipping scum gives me a lynch order of kraska(town) > Shiro > Shadow/Fuzzy/Creature (god I wish I could narrow that list down further, but I can't)
OR:
kraska(scum) > Shiro > Fuzzy/Creature. (Depends on what kraska flips. I do not see kraska as scum with Shadow.)

mastin2 · Post Post #10122 (ISO) » Mon Oct 31, 2016 3:13 pm

*Forgot this in the kraska town:
Shiro > Shadow/Fuzzy/Creature > RR.

There's only

one

scum pair I can see as viable for RR, and a prerequisite for it is TWIE flipping scum, and one other player also flipping scum. So, they're not quite cleared as confirmed town from my analysis...but they're pretty damn close.

mastin2 · Post Post #10123 (ISO) » Mon Oct 31, 2016 3:38 pm

After eating (I did all that on an empty stomach!), I'd like to further say:
TWIE flipping town gives me a lynch order of kraska > Shiro > Fuzzy > Creature;
TWIE flipping scum gives me a lynch order of kraska(town) > Shiro > Fuzzy/Creature > RR > Shadow (though, he may be equal to RR, not sure)
OR
kraska(scum) > Shiro > Fuzzy/Creature.

The change is that upon reflection, I still find Shadow_step to be considerably less likely than the other players in contention for being scum.
So basically, remember what I said earlier about me not having a plan?

I've fixed that.
Now, REGARDLESS OF WHAT THEWAYITENDS FLIPS, I have a plan. The plan is...imperfect. Ideally, I would have the TWIE-scum scenario with no ties, and I have one maybe two ties in there.

I'm also not quite sure we have the mislynch currency in order to pull it off. I need to have two mislynches available: today, and tomorrow, in order to ensure a town win.
TWIE flipping scum could also potentially require three mislynches available rather than two (yes, ironically enough, a scum lynch on TWIE actually increases the number of mislynches we need because there's more potential scumteams if TWIE is scum compared to if TWIE is town). If we can afford that, then sure, yeah, we win regardless so long as nobody deviates from the order I dictate, buuuuuuuut...I'm not quite at the level where I can say we've got a 100% surefire win here.

mastin2 · Post Post #10124 (ISO) » Mon Oct 31, 2016 3:52 pm

I'm going to be blunt about what this all means:
Off of my calculations, there are NO scenarios where all of TWIE, kraskaesque, and Shiro are town.
Lynching through them, ideally in that order, may or may not get you all of the scum, but it will get at least one if not two. (With a chance of all three.)

I'm pretty sure my math holds. Simple deduction and analysis with basic conclusions.