Newbie 1747 (Game Over)

[Hermie]

Really the only thing that could have happened is if algebra wasn't jailed by aelin. If that would be the case that could really screw us up.

[Hermie]

One other thing that really made my scum reader trip was his reaction to the false hammer.. the meh I'm town thing just screamed scum to me for some reason.

[mhsmith0]

Shooting inside the mechanical POE is very very very very bad. So either it was lol scum or there was some gain important enough to counteract narrowing down the POE like that. I'm in no rush to vote at the day before LYLO, want to see where everyone's headspace is.

[mhsmith0]

Blawb is scum.

I tend to agree with that if you're town.

Edit to earlier take: Thor wasn't tr'ing blawb.

@hermie and @algebra: how well do you two understand basic night kill mechanics? Like, do both of you out thought and care into your night kills as scum and do you realize why Thor was such a mechanically bad shot? And have you ever taken wacky night shots just for the WIFOM?

[mhsmith0]

Vote Count 1.4

Aelin

(3):

MisaTange

,

Creeps20

,

Thor665

Hermie (2):

algebra,

PenguinPower

Thor665

(1):

persephone325

Creeps20

(1):

Hermie

No Vote (3):

Aelin

, mhsmith0

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch!

Deadline is Tuesday, October 25, at 4:00 PM CST, which is in (expired on 2016-10-25 16:00:00).

algebra replaces rb.
mhsmith0 replaces sinkongoreng.

PenguinPower - V/LA until 10/17

Vote Count 1.5

Creeps20

(4):

Hermie, mhsmith0, algebra,

Aelin

PenguinPower

(2):

MisaTange

,

Thor665

Aelin

(1):

Creeps20

Hermie (1):

PenguinPower

Thor665

(1):

persephone325

No Vote (0)

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch!

Deadline is Tuesday, October 25, at 4:00 PM CST, which is in (expired on 2016-10-25 16:00:00).

Prodding persephone325.

Now THIS is an interesting pair of vote counts. It's really notable that creeps gets wagoned, there's a counter-wagon on town comprised of town, and yet it never gets above two votes. Mechanically, if that's hermie or me bussing, then that's a super dedicated bus. And algebra (who MAYBE hopped onto the developing wagon as a bus, at least on a theory basis) is the mech clear unless aelin basically game threw.

[mhsmith0]

Mulling it over more, if it's not blawb, then Thor was a framing kill on blawb (I.e. Lol at the newbie and the like)... but why even bother in that case? Blawb was a super likely d3 lynch regardless based on penguins day end read and thors stated read; I don't see why anyone else would want to confirm Thor as town, narrowing down the lynch pool, just for the sake of REALLY ensuring a d3 mislynch.

Algebra or Hermie: why would either of them take away the potential chance of getting Thor mislynched d4 for general paranoia and having voted in the wrong place d1? Thor being dead instead of alive pretty drastically restricts mislynch possibilities and makes the game way harder to win, only in exchange for a slightly easier d3. That's basically terrible play, and I don't think either would make such a strange and careless kill.

Anyway, strong FOS on blawb, but I want to see what everyone is thinking before voting. It's the last day we can afford a mislynch, and if anyone has anything useful to say, I'd rather hear it now.

[Hermie]

Blawb is scum.

I tend to agree with that if you're town.

Edit to earlier take: Thor wasn't tr'ing blawb.

@hermie and @algebra: how well do you two understand basic night kill mechanics? Like, do both of you out thought and care into your night kills as scum and do you realize why Thor was such a mechanically bad shot? And have you ever taken wacky night shots just for the WIFOM?

I understand the concept of shooting conf players and leaving the possible mislynches, but my mafia play is so bad I rarely live past D1 or D2 as maf so I can't use them.

[Hermie]

And so I don't have any experience with lol nking

[mhsmith0]

I don't ever think I've taken a shot as mechanically bad as that one as scum. Like, the obvious shot there is algebra, actively eliminating a mech clear. Easy peasy.

[Blawb]

Alright, seriously, I'm kinda shocked that Thor died. I was actually gonna try and pitch the case of Thor being "big-brother" mafia to you guys so that we could lynch him today, but I guess that's not gonna happen. The obvious lynch today is me, right? I'm fine with that, but I need to get a good read on either Hermie or Smith before I die, because one of them is scum and I'll be pretty much the only sound opinion in the thread tomorrow, even when I'm dead.

I need to start with the one question that I just can't figure out. Why was Thor killed last night? I mean, Hermie and algebra are wide-open targets considering that we have a BP. And it was assumed that Hermie was cleared before, but I now realize he's just as likely to be scum as Smith. Was the kill calculated or a *really* poor choice? I mean, we probably would've lynched Thor today anyways. I guess my final opinion is gonna come down to whether I think the kill was calculated or a fuck up. If it was calculated to cause chaos, it's probably Smith. If it was just a "see where the dart lands" kill, I'm gonna have to say it's Hermie.

Don't lynch me until I can get my final opinion in. Something tells me that algebra and Misa haven't been paying too much attention, and will blindly follow whatever advice I give (which isn't good, but realistic considering that they rarely post).

[Hermie]

I'm as confirmed as possible with out a mechanical or host conf. I pushed hard on the creeps lynch day 1. Mhsmith as well. Either of us would not have been very intelligent to have day 1 bussed our scum bud that hard. You are scum.

[mhsmith0]

btw, algebra and Misa are long since due a prod I think

[Hermie]

Miss fo sho

[MisaTange]

*from the dead voice* stop misspelling my name

I feel confident that the kill comes from newbscum though from nightkill analysis alone

Not too convinced that two of my foses are using the self meta 'I will never make that kill as scum!' thing.

[Hermie]

Here is the thing. I really think only algebra would make that kill. Unless it was gonna be sold as"I'm too smart to do that" kill. And in aelin did what she was supposed to algebra is conf town.

[MisaTange]

The only way algebra isn't confirmed town is via gamethrow (Aelin forgetting to put her actions in, etc.)

I feel strongly about scum! Blawb after his last post. If ya can't get a town ML, you can discredit a confirmed town's opinion, as good mafia players think confirmed! Town =/= their opinions prioritize over everything. Although it's true that I haven't been posting, I've been looking through this thread via mobile. His fos on Hermie feels like redirection rather than scumhunting.

[Blawb]

It's Hermie.

Hermie and Creeps were buddies, probably had a plan in case they were scum together. Neither of them wanted to reveal the other's scum meta, therefore keeping each other safe even after he Bus. The amount of times Hermie has called himself "confirmed" shows that his primary objective is to appear confirmed to the town. The NK last night made no sense; it's only purpose was to frame me. While it did frame me successfully, it was a dumb scum move overall. And to be perfectly blunt, Hermie would be the most susceptible to make a kill like that. Check out his first posts in the game. He recognizes game mechanics, but his play is extremely reactive and not very thought out. I mean, remember when he tried to hammer RB when he was already on the wagon and RB was at L-2? Hermie has been riding the town cred all game, yet not really caring who was lynched each day, hopping wagons at a moments notice. And he hasn't done any scumhunting either; he just goes with the flow, which is extremely pro-scum.

Now, I've considered the possibility that Smith is scum using the NK as WIFOM, but it doesn't really make sense unless he is actually framing Hermie. So I'll lynch myself today, but I'm really asking that you lynch Hermie tomorrow. If Smith or algebra is scum, I'm gonna blow up.

VOTE: Blawb

And I know that this is frowned upon, but I'm the most obvious candidate for a lynch today. I'm just hoping that me being confirmed as a townie makes you guys revisit my posts and lynch Hermie.

[Hermie]

Self vote = scum. Confirmed over and over.

[mhsmith0]

Self voting is bad play if town, but bad play happens. No need to rush a hammer.

@blawb: talk about what you mean by going w the flow? I could maybe see this from day 2 but don't especially remember seeing it day one. What am I missing there?

[Blawb]

Self vote = scum. Confirmed over and over.

I'm doing it to confirm myself as a townie, because I am quite literally the only one not "confirmed" at this point. Trust me, I'm not giving up, but rather trying to confirm myself because you guys won't believe anything I say otherwise. You are scum; I know it and believe it so much that I'm willing to die to prove it.

Self voting is bad play if town, but bad play happens. No need to rush a hammer.

@blawb: talk about what you mean by going w the flow? I could maybe see this from day 2 but don't especially remember seeing it day one. What am I missing there?

What other course of action would you have me take then? And Hermie didn't seem to care who was lynched, as long as someone was lynched. D1, he RV'd RB, and then quickly changed to Creeps a couple hours in. Then, he stuck on the Creeps wagon because he was so sure that Creeps was scum because his meta showed scum to Hermie (even though Hermie refused to explain what this unknown meta actually was). Hermie was then hopping BW's and not offering any help in the D2 lynches. His posts were like one sentence long and didn't help at all.

[Hermie]

As I was writing this post, I just wanted to reinforce the point that I could be wrong about PP being inno. I'm doing my job as a townie and sharing my POV's and thoughts, so I kinda expect the same from everyone else. If you strongly disagree with me, I need to hear it, and I need to hear why. Collaboration is gonna win us this game.

So, here's where I'm at guys. I think that the scum lies between Smith and Thor. I'm sure of it. However, I do think that Thor is more scummy than Smith, bec

If I'm your #2 to the #1 Thor then I'd think you can

1) substantiate what is clearing on PP (and hermie but as pp is L-1 that's the priority)
2) substantiate the case against me

Since you've indicated a seemingly strong preference on the matter I'll give you time to impress me

UNVOTE:

PP still my #1 but not liking that post. If PP is clear you should be able to usefully explain why.

I knew you'd jump on that instantly. This reply itself is part of the reason I called you #2. I'll elaborate on both of your points, even though I have a sneaking suspicion nothing I say will be good enough for you.

1.)

What is clearing on PP and Hermie?

- I'll start with Hermie, since I can do this easily off the top of my head. As soon as I joined the game, I took note of the relationship that Hermie and Creeps had established with each other. Both of them knew each other on some other forums, and had played TvM's there. Creeps kept saying that he knew how Hermie acted as mafia, saying that Hermie was not acting like his "mafia self," but to be warned that Hermie would possibly vote him to get Creeps (the only person who supposedly knew Hermie's maf tells) out of the way. I stated well before Creeps was lynched that if one of them flipped red, the other was most certainly green. This is because they tunneled on each other, doing this weird dance of both buddying and trying to convince the town that they knew each other so well. However, neither of them could actually explain what tells to look for, which leads me to believe that they actually had no clue, and were simply attached at the hip given their relationship. Mafia wouldn't be so blatant and interact with each other the way Creeps and Hermie did if they were both mafia.

This is all a recap, because it's been stated before multiple times, and I was the first one to create the theory

before Creeps was even lynched.

Meaning, you've probably already read it, and are asking me about this again for reasons unbeknownst to me...

- I'll admit, there's not much "clearing" PP as you are expecting me to reveal.

There's about as much evidence of him being a townie as there is of you, me, or Thor for that matter.

However, now that I've looked back at Thor's posts, I can see the case that Thor is scum being much stronger than the case for PP being scum. Sure, Creeps could have tried the reverse psych mafia death move and named PP as scum to try and clear him (along with Hermie who was practically cleared by that lynch), but,

like I've said before

(are you reading?!), Creeps wasn't acting like the sharpest tool in the toolbox, and he might've just named PO to throw us off. What really made me want to look into a different potential suspect though was PP's attitude toward being lynched today. His ISO Posts #73-75 really convinced me that he truly believed he was a townie himself. It sounded like he really knew that there would another day after he got lynched. To further say that his reads shouldn't be treated as 100% correct after he dies was super convincing. I might be wrong about PP, but I bought his townie act when he was close to death.

~~~

2.)

Substantiate the case against you.

First of all, I still think Thor is more scummy than you, so you're just my backup suspect at the moment if he isn't scum. Now, here are a couple reasons why I think you could possibly be scum.

Unfortunately over the last few days I came down with some nasty food poisoning D:. Slightly better now.
Before I say more; remember what I said a while back about how I will explain why you should not lynch me.
Wait how many days are left before EOD?

Yes we saw it. And now that you've chosen to re-highlight it, there's no way that scum team would have missed it. It's abundantly clear you're softing a town PR. So you basically have two choices:

1) start being useful and game-solving
2) claim your role

I'd prefer you choosing #1 myself. But if you're going to spend the game coasting on your PR soft, then you should claim. Either claiming jk/cop/tracker or claiming bp/doc (no need at all to get more specific than that).

- I haven't forgotten that you were the reason that Aelin claimed. This post, above all others, was the reason that our Jailor claimed and died for pretty much no reason at all. I mean, nobody was even voting Aelin! And while your response to this is that you said you preferred your Option #1 in your post above, that's arguably just surface for an ulterior motive if you're scum. Convincing Aelin to claim did nothing good for the town, and was

extremely

pro-scum.

- You've done a weird amount of attempting to confirm yourself as a townie. As I said in my first post of this game, townies know that they are town. They don't feel the need to reinforce this at every opportunity they get. Scum, on the other hand, feel like they have to convince everyone that they are a townie, even when they aren't the ones immediately under the microscope. Surely everyone can agree with me on this concept, it's just basic mafia theory. So when I simply point out that you are tunneling on PP (you have been all game), I get a bit suspicious when I receive a reply like this, attempting to "confirm" yourself as a townie:

Mhsmith seems to be tunneling on PP. I'm pulling the newbie card; I'm not sure if this is a townie move or a scum move. I could see the aggressive townie stance, but I could also see the scum trying to pull out their pitchforks to blend in with the mob. @Thor - This is a game theory question for you, I guess.

Game theory wise it could be either. If I'm the last scum and need to achieve three mislynches, PP is absolutely one of the players I'd need to mislynch. Mechanically, misa is clear, algebra is like 99% clear, basically he's clear barring aerin game throwing), which means the remainder is Hermie, PP, Thor, and you. All things considered, Hermie would be a difficult mislynch given his activity levels, and I don't recall his interactions with creeps looking like bussing at all, so if I'm the last scum, I probably want nothing to do with pressuring him. Of course, if I'm town then it's just an actual town read on his slot.

I'd actually say that what is most clearing for me is'nt what I'm doing D2, but what I did D1. Do you think that I bussed the roleblocker, especially given that said theoretical bus started BEFORE I'd found out whether Aelin was cop or jailkeeper? Just mechanically speaking, a bus of a roleblocker against cop/doctor (especially an outed cop) is HORRIBLE play, since the cop can be protected by the doctor and then you're basically in a lock loss situation unless you happen to hit the doctor N1 AND the cop doesn't peek you that night. And even in JK/BP, it's a difficult situation, since whoever is jailed is mechanically cleared, and the BP is another mechanical clear, which means that there are five non clear VT claims on the board, and you have to mislynch three of them. That's really difficult to pull off, all the more so since you no longer have the same kind of freedom to pick the players at night who you want gone.

Now, I'm not going to say that it's totally impossible for me to have bussed there, but I will say that it goes pretty decently against my meta (I very rarely bus - http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/thr ... e-Will-LOL is one of the very rare examples of me actively bussing a buddy from the start [as opposed to hopping on at the end or just distancing when I'm in a situation where I know I'm going down] ). For me to be the last goon, I'd have had to have chosen to bus the roleblocker when doing so would create an extra an unneccesary mechanical clear (algebra) AND a mislynch (PP in this case) was pretty reasonably on the board. If you go back to day one when Thor was pushing me to switch to PP, if I'm a goon that's an incredibly tempting moment to hop off onto PP and see what happens, potentially dumping the blame for the mislynch onto Thor if/as needed later on.

Bussing meta, fwiw, is actually why I'm somewhat suspicious of Thor. I know that he's talked before about basically never bussing, and that when he's mafia he finds cases of townies looking sketchy to push on instead of his buddy or buddies. So within that framework, it does seem like this game is decently within what Thor as mafia would be trying to do. Which is part of why I want PP sorted; if PP is mafia, then Thor pushing him over Creeps doesn't really matter. If PP is town, though, it looks worse.

As if that weren't enough, you continue on in your next post, creating a list of people to go through for an "easy win" for the town. Conveniently, you aren't on this list of three. And coincidentally, if all three in that list are townie, and we lynch Thor, PP, and myself, you would win if you were scum.

Off the top of my head, I'd say that among the non-cleared VT claims, Hermie looks very good given his D1 push on creeps, and it's very likely between PP, Thor, and Blawb. For each of those slots there's a thereotical framework for why they might "fit" as the last mafia:

PP - creeps didn't want to get on PP's counter-wagon (and shaded late in his ISO but didn't vote), PP shaded but didn't vote creeps

Thor - pushing a townie who looks bad instead of the roleblocker (and the RB is especially a slot that you don't want to bus on D1)
Re-skimming ISO's, I will say that Creeps spent a substantial amount of time D1 talking to Thor, which is something I don't normally expect from teammates,

Blawb - the Creeps wagon never quite got the kind of really aggressive resistance and counter-wagon that you might expect from a RB wagon, it's plausible that the reason for this was that his buddy was a total inactive

To me PP seems the likeliest. I'm curious what everyone else actually has to say, though. We're in a situation where we're doing really well, but it is NOT a locked game, and every lynch matters, so if there's a good case for PP as town, or an especially good case on someone else, I'd really like to hear it.

So, without going into further detail, I'll just end this by saying that you are #2 on my potential scum list because the tone and mentality of a classical townie are missing from your posts. Feeling the need to validate yourself is scummy, for reasons already stated.

And I didn't do this to "impress you," thank you very much. The whole purpose of this post is to draw you out on stage for a continued discussion tomorrow if Thor or PP (whoever we end up lynching) flip townie. I'm just making sure that all bases are covered.

Hmmm

[Hermie]

What happened to lynching Smith? He looks like too hard of a mislynch?

[MisaTange]

...Why does Blawb's vote feel more like "I want to redirect the town's fos to Hermie" rather than the intended "I'm VT ("The obvious lynch today is me, right? I'm fine with that..."), I'm town but if it'll focus your attention on scum then I'm okay with being lynched"? And I know his reasoning for voting himself, but I still feel a little ehh at him selfvoting rather than voting his strongest scumread. I know I'm townreading Hermie because he instigated his partner's lynch, but I'll still prefer lynching smith over Hermie if Blawb is town. I get the first part that he's reactive, but wasn't Hermie the one who provided a straight-up link to the game he played with Creeps?

Should I request a post-by-post analysis? I'm looking at Hermie's iso and I really don't see what Blawb is seeing.

P-Edit:

I am quite literally the only one not "confirmed" at this point.

Not... really? Algebra is only confirmed assuming that Aelin did as she was told, I am the uncc'd BP, Smith has been only pro-town imo, and Hermie has been cleared due to instigation of the Creeps lynch. If you can convince town to lynch actual scum, convince town to lynch actual scum.

[MisaTange]

I just realized persephone, on day 1, had her vote on Thor (now confirmed dead town) for the longest time.

Makes me wonder if newbscum (note that Hermie has expressed multiple times that he has played Forum Mafia before, so he is an exception) has a tendency to bus/vote anywhere but their scumpartner.

[Hermie]

Perse was a total null to me. Especially with the dice roll tag on his vote.