STEVEN UNIVERSE 2 - GAME OVER

TheWayItEnds · Post Post #10175 (ISO) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 11:25 am

like i get that vca works by starting with the conclusion and working backwards but fuck me at least pretend it doesnt.

mastin2 · Post Post #10176 (ISO) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 11:26 am

(Like, there's a difference between probable and plausible. I did not say probable. I said the much weaker, plausible: a bit stronger than possible, but ultimately not something which is even close to assured. And that, for the above reason, is true. TWIE as scum makes it

plausible

for no other scum to be on it, for fear of SnarkySnowman being seen as a scum counterwagon to DGB, among other possibilities. But the analysis I did was, by and large, reliant on a TWIE

townflip

, not scumflip, and if you're town like you say you are, TWIE, then my analysis holds true because it was seven all town votes on SnarkySnowman, even if one of them was controlled by scum.)

mastin2 · Post Post #10177 (ISO) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 11:46 am

Let me put it to you another way, too.
Being extra generous, our lynchpool would be:
farside22
Reasonably Rational
kraska

Shadow_Step
Shiro
TheFuzzylogic99
Creature
TheWayItEnds

Divided into those two groupings.
So, what pairs are possible?
farside-TWIE-Shadow
farside-TWIE-Shiro
farside-TWIE-Fuzzy
farside-TWIE-Creature
(Farside has TWIE as scum a prerequisite.)
I find farside as unlikely scum for many many MANY reasons, but these are the only possible farside scumteams. For those who still cling to farside suspicion...which of these is what you say?

RR-Shadow-Shiro (unlikely thanks to RR-Shiro-Titus alliance)
RR-Shadow-Fuzzy
RR-Shadow-Creature (I've discussed why RR's play today makes this unlikely)
RR-Shadow-TWIE
RR-Shiro-Fuzzy (unlikely thanks to RR-Shiro)
RR-Shiro-Creature (double-unlikely)
RR-Shiro-TWIE (unlikely thanks to RR-Shiro)
RR-Fuzzy-Creature (unlikely thanks to Creature)
RR-Fuzzy-TWIE
RR-Creature-TWIE (Unlikely thanks to Creature)

Note that there are a grand total of three possible scumteams for RR, if you're being extra-generous. TWIE, Shadow, and Fuzzy are each scum in two of them. This is why RR is unlikely as scum to me.

kraska-Shadow-Shiro (unlikely thanks to Shadow)
kraska-Shadow-Fuzzy (unlikely thanks to Shadow)
kraska-Shadow-Creature (unlikely thanks to Shadow)
kraska-Shadow-TWIE (unlikely thanks to Shadow)
kraska-Shiro-Fuzzy
kraska-Shiro-Creature
kraska-Shiro-TWIE
kraska-Fuzzy-Creature
kraska-Creature-TWIE

Shadow-Shiro-Fuzzy
Shadow-Shiro-Creature
Shadow-Shiro-TWIE
Shadow-Fuzzy-Creature
Shadow-Fuzzy-TWIE
Shadow-Creature-TWIE

Shiro-Fuzzy-Creature (unlikely thanks to DGB wagon)
Shiro-Fuzzy-TWIE

Fuzzy-Creature-TWIE.

Pretty sure that's all of them.

So tell me.
Which of these look likely? Which look unlikely? Which are plausible, implausible, probable, improbable? I did my homework on all of them and gave my feedback on each of these.

Creature · Post Post #10178 (ISO) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 11:48 am

If TWIE is town idk who's scum.

Creature · Post Post #10179 (ISO) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 11:48 am

Hopefully this game isn't investigative-empty.

TheFuzzylogic99 · Post Post #10180 (ISO) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 11:49 am

man I wanted not to vote for you....but you were being unhelpful. I cc bc I thought it would help the town, I was not asking you to make a full claim but to give info so I could evaluate things. You was pretty much you are stupid and I don't want to help.
Your lurking has not been helpful either. Given my role I think its less likely you are town than you are scum or maybe a third party. Right now I am leaning scum. You are complaining about getting lynched but you have done little to mae us think you are town or to prevent yourself from being lynched,

BTW if TWIE flips town than I should be high on the suspect list,

mastin2 · Post Post #10181 (ISO) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 11:58 am

Oops. Missed Shiro-Creature-TWIE.
farside-TWIE-Shadow
farside-TWIE-Shiro
farside-TWIE-Fuzzy
farside-TWIE-Creature
(Farside has TWIE as scum a prerequisite.)

RR-Shadow-Shiro (unlikely thanks to RR-Shiro-Titus alliance)
RR-Shadow-Fuzzy
RR-Shadow-Creature (I've discussed why RR's play today makes this unlikely)
RR-Shadow-TWIE
RR-Shiro-Fuzzy (unlikely thanks to RR-Shiro)
RR-Shiro-Creature (double-unlikely)
RR-Shiro-TWIE (unlikely thanks to RR-Shiro)
RR-Fuzzy-Creature (unlikely thanks to Creature)
RR-Fuzzy-TWIE
RR-Creature-TWIE (Unlikely thanks to Creature)

kraska-Shadow-Shiro (unlikely thanks to Shadow)
kraska-Shadow-Fuzzy (unlikely thanks to Shadow)
kraska-Shadow-Creature (unlikely thanks to Shadow)
kraska-Shadow-TWIE (unlikely thanks to Shadow)
kraska-Shiro-Fuzzy
kraska-Shiro-Creature
kraska-Shiro-TWIE
kraska-Fuzzy-Creature
kraska-Creature-TWIE

Shadow-Shiro-Fuzzy
Shadow-Shiro-Creature
Shadow-Shiro-TWIE
Shadow-Fuzzy-Creature
Shadow-Fuzzy-TWIE
Shadow-Creature-TWIE

Shiro-Fuzzy-Creature (unlikely thanks to DGB wagon)
Shiro-Fuzzy-TWIE
Shiro-Creature-TWIE

Fuzzy-Creature-TWIE.

For the math-inclined: there are four scenarios where farside can be scum.
There are three scenarios where RR can be scum.
There are five scenarios where kraska can be scum.
There are nine scenarios where Shadow can be scum.
There are ten scenarios where Shiro can be scum.
There are eleven scenarios where Fuzzy can be scum.
There are nine scenarios where Creature can be scum.
There are fourteen scenarios where TWIE can be scum.

Mind you, I don't particularly think this math means much. If it did, then the lynch order would be TWIE > Fuzzy > Shiro > Creature/Shadow > kraska > farside > RR.
But I thought it was a fun factoid all the same.

TheFuzzylogic99 · Post Post #10182 (ISO) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 12:07 pm

I have TWIE at l-1
Creature at L-2

No one should hammer until a) TWIE claims and b) we make sure we are good on the alliances,,,,,,,,,

mastin2 · Post Post #10183 (ISO) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 12:12 pm

Hmm, looks like in the above, I forgot kraska-Fuzzy-TWIE. So, add one to each of their points above. (Six/Twelve/Fifteen.)

Spoiler: Just for fun:

farside22 · Post Post #10184 (ISO) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 1:44 pm

My head hurts read mastins thoughts

mastin2 · Post Post #10185 (ISO) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 10:47 pm

It's really simple.
farside-TWIE-Shadow
farside-TWIE-Shiro
farside-TWIE-Fuzzy
farside-TWIE-Creature
(Farside has TWIE as scum a prerequisite.)

RR-Shadow-Shiro (unlikely thanks to RR-Shiro-Titus alliance)
RR-Shadow-Fuzzy
RR-Shadow-Creature (I've discussed why RR's play today makes this unlikely)
RR-Shadow-TWIE
RR-Shiro-Fuzzy (unlikely thanks to RR-Shiro)
RR-Shiro-Creature (double-unlikely)
RR-Shiro-TWIE (unlikely thanks to RR-Shiro)
RR-Fuzzy-Creature (unlikely thanks to Creature)
RR-Fuzzy-TWIE
RR-Creature-TWIE (Unlikely thanks to Creature)

kraska-Shadow-Shiro (unlikely thanks to Shadow)
kraska-Shadow-Fuzzy (unlikely thanks to Shadow)
kraska-Shadow-Creature (unlikely thanks to Shadow)
kraska-Shadow-TWIE (unlikely thanks to Shadow)
kraska-Shiro-Fuzzy
kraska-Shiro-Creature
kraska-Shiro-TWIE
kraska-Fuzzy-Creature
kraska-Fuzzy-TWIE
kraska-Creature-TWIE

Shadow-Shiro-Fuzzy
Shadow-Shiro-Creature
Shadow-Shiro-TWIE
Shadow-Fuzzy-Creature
Shadow-Fuzzy-TWIE
Shadow-Creature-TWIE

Shiro-Fuzzy-Creature (unlikely thanks to DGB wagon)
Shiro-Fuzzy-TWIE
Shiro-Creature-TWIE

Fuzzy-Creature-TWIE.

These are every possible scumteam. Literally, every single scumteam possible. If it's not listed here, it's not possible. (Unless I accidentally missed a name or two, which has been known to happen. Twice so far.)

Spoiler: If TWIE is town, these are what's left:

Removing the ones unlikely, we get:
RR-Shadow-Fuzzy

kraska-Shiro-Fuzzy
kraska-Shiro-Creature

kraska-Fuzzy-Creature
Shadow-Shiro-Fuzzy
Shadow-Shiro-Creature

Shadow-Fuzzy-Creature

Those are literally the ONLY combinations viable upon a TWIE townflip.

Spoiler:

And removing those unlikely, you get:
farside-TWIE-Shadow
farside-TWIE-Shiro
farside-TWIE-Fuzzy
farside-TWIE-Creature
RR-Shadow-TWIE
RR-Fuzzy-TWIE
kraska-Shiro-TWIE
kraska-Fuzzy-TWIE
kraska-Creature-TWIE
Shadow-Shiro-TWIE
Shadow-Fuzzy-TWIE
Shadow-Creature-TWIE
Shiro-Fuzzy-TWIE
Shiro-Creature-TWIE
Fuzzy-Creature-TWIE.

So, I'm asking people to compare the TWIE town combos, to the TWIE scum combos, and to tell me which ones THEY see as likely/unlikely. I've stated why I've got four candidates in mind for a TWIE townflip. (The four which do not involve Shadow-Creature, yet have at least one of kraska/Shiro as scum.)
The weakness in my strategy is that I haven't quite elaborated on the fifteen scenarios upon a TWIE scumflip, but what I

have

done, is said I think you're town even in it, and I also have good reason to doubt RR-Shadow-TWIE (if that was the scumteam, again, they gave no resistance to either scum wagon and gained little credit for SirCakez and absolutely none for DGB), so those are basically out.

Which gives us...ten pairings if TWIE flips scum, a little over double what we get if TWIE flips town.
So feedback on both would be appreciated, but the TWIE flipping scum is the one I need more refined, because basically, if TWIE flips town the game should be solved; lynch kraska, then lynch Shiro, and if the game's not over, lynch one/both of Fuzzy/Creature.
If TWIE flips scum, I don't quite have the same synergy, though I do have a fair number of ideas.

Creature · Post Post #10186 (ISO) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 10:51 pm

Do you think TWIE thought he was hammered?

Creature · Post Post #10187 (ISO) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 11:12 pm

In post 9108, Varsoon wrote:Deadline[/b]: (expired on 2016-11-04 10:00:00)

farside22 · Post Post #10188 (ISO) » Wed Nov 02, 2016 1:10 am

I'll hammer in time. Just making sure alliances are in order.

Shadow_step · Post Post #10189 (ISO) » Wed Nov 02, 2016 2:23 am

Don't have enough time to read through, who is allying with me?

Shadow_step · Post Post #10190 (ISO) » Wed Nov 02, 2016 2:25 am

In post 10188, farside22 wrote:I'll hammer in time. Just making sure alliances are in order.

Who are you hammering?

*too lazy to check VC*

Randomnamechange · Post Post #10191 (ISO) » Wed Nov 02, 2016 3:16 am

In post 10189, Shadow_step wrote:Don't have enough time to read through, who is allying with me?

Mastin I think, although im not sure they have confirmed.
i think that we should wait until tomorrow for analysis. TWIE flip is pretty important. Still think Creature is scum however, but for the purpose of analysis I think we should flip twie today.

Shadow_step · Post Post #10192 (ISO) » Wed Nov 02, 2016 3:23 am

In post 10137, TheFuzzylogic99 wrote:Fine.... I tried to give you a chance

vote TWIE

I am the vig.... I shot Fire. I thought Yume was hinting that he was part of the dimond authority. This was before I realized we were dealing with Rubies. I can shoot at any time but I have a sure kill at + ?. I dont want to give it away. I have to be an alliance to use my ability. I thought about shooting Far but was concern that her blocking ability would block it despite being a sure kill. Also I wanted to shoot someone who was likely scum. I get a refund at the season finale

I willing any question I can.

Waiiiiiiiiit a sec, I don't get your explanation for killing FB.

Also, if we want to flip TWIE just for info. Why are you voting TWIE, you can vig him tonight?

MagnaofIllusion · Post Post #10193 (ISO) » Wed Nov 02, 2016 3:37 am

In post 10176, mastin2 wrote:But the analysis I did was, by and large, reliant on a TWIE townflip, not scumflip, and if you're town like you say you are, TWIE, then my analysis holds true because it was seven all town votes on SnarkySnowman, even if one of them was controlled by scum.)

You do get that this makes no sense, correct? I mean you are talking from a standpoint of wagon analysis then if you see a TWIE Town flip then by rote it means that one of the votes on the wagon was put there by scum (DGB) and the fact that it is a “all Town wagon” isn’t a valid analysis point in the least. Scum chose to obfuscate their involvement in the wagon but still were the driving force in placing one of the votes there.

So any further logic that use “It was an all Town wagon” as a reason to make any analysis is useless.

Randomnamechange · Post Post #10194 (ISO) » Wed Nov 02, 2016 3:45 am

In post 10192, Shadow_step wrote:
In post 10137, TheFuzzylogic99 wrote:Fine.... I tried to give you a chance

vote TWIE

I am the vig.... I shot Fire. I thought Yume was hinting that he was part of the dimond authority. This was before I realized we were dealing with Rubies. I can shoot at any time but I have a sure kill at + ?. I dont want to give it away. I have to be an alliance to use my ability. I thought about shooting Far but was concern that her blocking ability would block it despite being a sure kill. Also I wanted to shoot someone who was likely scum. I get a refund at the season finale

I willing any question I can.
Waiiiiiiiiit a sec, I don't get your explanation for killing FB.

Also, if we want to flip TWIE just for info. Why are you voting TWIE, you can vig him tonight?

It's not for info. He is very likely scum, as is Creature, but he is a more useful lynch on top of that.

farside22 · Post Post #10195 (ISO) » Wed Nov 02, 2016 5:25 am

In post 10190, Shadow_step wrote:
In post 10188, farside22 wrote:I'll hammer in time. Just making sure alliances are in order.
Who are you hammering?

*too lazy to check VC*

Hammering twie.
Counter claim vig trumps all else.

TheWayItEnds · Post Post #10196 (ISO) » Wed Nov 02, 2016 5:35 am

TheWayItEnds · Post Post #10197 (ISO) » Wed Nov 02, 2016 5:42 am

literally nothing he claimed countered my claim in anyway.

but you're right.

2 vig shots every 4 days is completely unreasonable.

TheFuzzylogic99 · Post Post #10198 (ISO) » Wed Nov 02, 2016 5:55 am

So you get two vig shots....you can use them on -4 or on Season finale
Do you have to ally to use them????

Varsoon · Post Post #10199 (ISO) » Wed Nov 02, 2016 5:58 am