"I've got you. You've got this. We've all got each other!"
Steven,Gem Drill
Due to the Stress being at -4, it only takes 6 to Lynch town.
Due to the Stress being at -4, the scum factional kill will always succeed.
Deadline
"I've got you. You've got this. We've all got each other!"
Steven,Gem Drill
In post 10240, Creature wrote:1-2 scum in Shiro/Fuzzy/me/Shadow
0-1 scum in RR/Almost/farside/kraska/grapes
what is there to explain? i think ure the only strong town player here who has a healthy perspective of the game(readjusting reads whenever new information comes up and so on) and other than u thinking im scum, i agree with ur reads for the most part. i know u wouldnt push for lynches on fuzzy or creature(who are being set-up as future mislynches right now)...atleast not while shiro's still aroundIn post 10553, grapes wrote:Yo kraska please answer my question; why were you considering using your ability thing on me specifically?
no the alliance with farside was a special case. it seems there were effects at play from other events that allowed this to happen. i really did forget that my alliances are conditional, sorryIn post 10557, TheFuzzylogic99 wrote:@Kras
yes you claim that you can not make an alliance with someone if we are at a negative stress rate, That doesn't seem true as you made an alliance before under those circumstances. Even if this was true it would fall under being blocked by an ability,\ in my mind. So yes I have read your posts..... I am just not sure what to believe,
Night 1: rb Shiro, no point given that day.Farside – please summarize all your checks in one post (including Night you activated it and full results you got).
Flattery will get you everywhereIn post 10556, kraska77 wrote:what is there to explain? i think ure the only strong town player here who has a healthy perspective of the game(readjusting reads whenever new information comes up and so on) and other than u thinking im scum, i agree with ur reads for the most part. i know u wouldnt push for lynches on fuzzy or creature(who are being set-up as future mislynches right now)...atleast not while shiro's still around
at that time barely anyone had claimed. only mastin and titus did i think. i had no clue about anyone elseIn post 10564, grapes wrote:Also when you have a role that alters other people's roles why does what their reads are and competency factor in and not what they've claimed already? Like why not hook up someone like shadow who you already know doesn't have an event? Or someone who's already used theirs?
The simplest answer would be to control-f my three-page iso (well pages 2 and 3 at least) for kraska mentions. But I have the time, and I don't feel like being a snide jerk right now, so I'll go do that for ya. About half of it won't be of much use, but you asked for me to give you what I had, and this is what that is.In post 10549, MagnaofIllusion wrote:I'm leaning kraska over Creature now. Have anything I'm missing from prior days to help solidify that read for me?
In post 6151, mastin2 wrote:Yes.In post 5865, kraskaesque wrote:Wtf? You "empathize" with why he voted after 5477? You "get it"? You "really do"?
I understandexactlywhy he voted you. I understand why he saw it as scummy. I understand why he thinks you're scum. I understand that, and I can't say I really disagree. The best I can give you is that I might not agree. Because you've lost your towncred. You had it early-on. And then you coasted.
A lot.
A lot, a lot.
So you're sitting on the south side of null.
Want towncred back?
Then do something town.
This aint it.
If you don't town it up, I will support lynching you tomorrow.
In post 7731, mastin2 wrote:Going into the night, I had a POE pool which looked something like this: kraskaesque//DrippingGoofball/Shadow_step, in approximately that order but with lots of guesswork involved. kraskaesque is my top scumread. As in, they're strongly, STRONGLY read as scum. kraskaesque. By both my analysis, and by an overlook of their play. (Iso them, you'll see some of what I'm getting at.)
In post 7732, mastin2 wrote:It's a combination of things. Their contributions to this game (rather, lack thereof), some hypocrisy on their part, flat pushes with no conviction (empty tone, essentially), plus some really bad, damning positioning in VCA.
Go iso them yourself and see if you can figure out what I mean by this. And also, iso the mod and see where kraskaesque falls on key wagons. (Keep also in mind: SirCakez was bussed. Proof?Where's his counterwagon?If scum made an effort to save SirCakez, why is there no actual counterwagon? They gave up on him at some point, which means at some point...they started bussing.)
In post 7768, mastin2 wrote:That would be your "case" against Shadow. I use air quotes for good reason.In post 7745, kraskaesque wrote:explain the "some hypocrisy on their part" part
In post 7819, mastin2 wrote:You're quite correct on kraska.In post 7773, Reasonably Rational wrote:Yeah, that's the main problem I have with your case kraska. I asked you to make a case on shadow using JUST his iso, not foxbirds, and I don't believe you ever did so.
(This in reference to 7787.)In post 7826, mastin2 wrote:If you actually tried reading kraskaesque's wall of text? Then yes.In post 7788, McMenno wrote:my eyes are bleeding is that normal
I mean, I suppose youcouldread it, if you needed any further evidence for why kraska's scum, but otherwise...
In post 7828, mastin2 wrote:Okay. Serious question. If this isn't a lurky game with very little reason for scumreads.In post 7804, farside22 wrote:kraska scum game is more lurky with very little reason for scum reads.
What the fucking hellis?!?
Because, um. Yeah.
That's basically the HEART of my case on kraskaesque: their absolute lurkfest of an iso with very little reasoning for their scumreads, spanning across the whole game.
In post 7837, mastin2 wrote:Not quite accurate, but deleted = no chance of being scum, strikethrough = strong (maybe mechanical) reason to believe not scum, underline = strong read as not scum, italics = weaker (less-substantiated, speculative) reason to not be scum.In post 3223, Varsoon wrote:SirCakez (LYNCH):grapes,Shiro,Kraskaeaque,Reasonably Rational
Farside22 (3):Almost50
Shiro (2):Farside22, Skybird
McMenno (2):Thefuzzylogic99
Obi-Wan Kenobi (1):SirCakez
Not Voting (5):Foxbird, TheWayItEnds, DrippingGoofball,Creature
SirCakez had no effective counterwagon. You can see spots where scum could, feasibly, be, but otherwise, the entirety of the possible locations for scum are: on the SirCakez wagon, and in the Not Voting pile.
And if you look at kraskaesque, they do literally joinrightat the prime bussing spot, at a time where his lynch was inevitable.
The number of people Not Voting there is suspicious, no?
It's almost as if scum knew SirCakez was flipping scum, knew that lynch couldn't be stopped, and were trying to avoid being caught on it.
Also, run a cross-reference of the names on Not Voting/SirCakez with the names of those who claimed to have not voted/voted not in the top in the Beach event. RR, kraskaesque, and grapes are literally the only four excluded. ALL of Shiro/Shadow_step/TWIE/DGB fall in the grouping of worthless/no votes. I also have reason to believe Shiro is town.
Giving a more limited pool of Shadow_step//TWIE/DGB.
In post 7851, mastin2 wrote:My case against kraskaesque relies mainly on two factors: their lackluster play, and their bad voting pattern in established VCA.
In post 7856, mastin2 wrote:First off: speculation. If the scumteam has a rational thinker...I think it could be at least one head of kraskaesque. I don't have any rational explanation to justify this. This is my first game with either of the heads as far as I know, so it's not like I have intimate knowledge of them. I don't even have a solid psychological profile. But my gut is telling me, for some reason, that at least one head of kraskaesque is deceptively smart, able to make calculated plays and run the risks and roll the die with smart action choices.In post 7853, Reasonably Rational wrote:if you prefer Kraskaesque can you explain it? Your approach and ours are really different, as you know. Explain it to me like I'm five.
I really wish I had more experience with them to confirm, either alignment would really work because mechanical knowledge as scum tends to not mystically disappear when the slot is town. (Quite the contrary, actually! It's more well-hidden as scum.) So, an inexplicablefeelingthat they are the missing piece in the puzzle, for why the scumteam has made the choices they have.
Second, they fit the same profile for scum play. They have been avoiding the major wagons. The only exception? SirCakez...at the time his lynch became inevitable.
Third, they have made zero pushes that had substance to them.
Fourth, they've been lurking a lot, and this is especially egregious because they are a hydra and neither head has had a marked V/LA that I can recall, at least to my knowledge.
Fifth, hypocrisy: a huge part of their case against Shadow_step is off of Foxbird's (and later, the hydra with Foxbird) inactivity, when Foxbird was V/LA for most of the game. Another huge part of their case against Shadow_step? Aside from inactivity, a lack of content...but a look at their iso will reveal the majority of it to be fluff, and the few times they make a push, it is empty and reasonless, without much substance.
Sixth, their lack of broad reads. You know they have a scumread on Shadow_step. Okay. What about other reads?
They've been narrowly on one subject, and one subject only, for pretty much the whole game.
In post 8136, mastin2 wrote:Okay, so this is pretty much textbook scum middlemanning. Peacekeeping.In post 7976, kraskaesque wrote:The people who allied with yume seem to have polar opinions on farside. This is pretty weird and I'm trying to figure out what's going on here, stop calling this fishing
This is a scum peacekeeper.
Remember how I said Titus was a town peacekeeper? I described it way back near the very beginning of D2.
In that wall, 3381, I describe what a scum peacekeeper is.
And this?
THIS is the scum counterpart.
In post 8138, mastin2 wrote:Like. Town peacekeeping: recognizing the issue, trying to resolve it, and give direction to it. Scum peacekeeping: pointing the issue out and doing fuckall to solve it.In post 7988, kraskaesque wrote:Mastin and moi having polar opinions on farside should have made people inclined to ask wtf is going on
Tell me which of the above this peacekeeping post is?
In post 8141, mastin2 wrote:(This post, by the way? Town peacekeeper. He tries to dissolve the conflict and give input. Contrast kraskaesque.)In post 8009, Almost50 wrote:It's really getting to me that each of you has her own "couple of players" she insists on being Town for no apparent reason.
In post 8158, mastin2 wrote:Except, that's fucking literally all kraskaesque was doing.In post 8140, Titus wrote:In post 8138, mastin2 wrote:Like. Town peacekeeping: recognizing the issue, trying to resolve it, and give direction to it. Scum peacekeeping: pointing the issue out and doing fuckall to solve it.In post 7988, kraskaesque wrote:Mastin and moi having polar opinions on farside should have made people inclined to ask wtf is going on
Tell me which of the above this peacekeeping post is?A scum peacekeeper just tells everyone to play nice and see it the other way.Kraska wants to get to the bottom of this here and know why.
Your definition for a scum peacekeeper is correct! Telling people to play nice and see the other way. But that's exactly what the post is.
Compare it to your peacekeeping. Compare it to Almost50's. Compare it to mine when I do it.
It's night and fucking day.
In post 8143, mastin2 wrote:Justsayin'.In post 8089, Varsoon wrote:Farside22 (LYNCH?):TheWayItEnds,DrippingGoofball,Skybird,Kraskaeaque,Almost50
DrippingGoofball (3):Shiro, Thefuzzylogic99,Creature
SnarkySnowman (3):grapes,Farside22
Kraskaesque (1):Shadow_Step
Shadow_Step (1):
Not Voting (2):Reasonably Rational
In post 8162, mastin2 wrote:You sure you're reading players right?In post 8150, Titus wrote:All Shadow did was point at people and say look at them.
'Cause that's what kraskaesque was doing.
In post 8937, mastin2 wrote:Not in the least, no. Smart scumplay is strategically dispersing and claiming of their votes. Scum voting me, and having one scum back them, is reasonable.Scum voting you, and having one scum back them, is also reasonable. Especially in conjunction with the above.In post 8783, Titus wrote:Scum picked you. Ever wonder why Mastina?
Scum voting Not Chara, and having the full fucking team back that except two randomly on me, is not so reasonable.
The goal for scum in voting during the Beachapalooza event is tonot stick out. Taking actions which stick out,especiallyif a scum member dies, is counterproductive.
Thus, one reason I continue to have that kraskaesque suspicion.
If TWIE/S_S/SS is the scumteam, all the remaining scum were in the not voters, but the more I think about it, the more I think it likely there's a second scum in the top voters...but not on MY wagon, and not on Not Chara's wagon.
If scum had a perfect distribution (and ignoring DGB), we'd have one scum on me (Skybird), one scum on you, one scum in the none, and one scum in those claiming to have voted someone.
In post 8973, mastin2 wrote:By the way, Titus: rule of three, you're fond of it, right? Which of these three do you think is most likely to be scum?In post 599, SirCakez wrote:Scum pool = Mcmenno, kraskaesque, obi
In post 9639, mastin2 wrote:Pretty much yeah.In post 9348, Almost50 wrote:Scum are in TWIE/Step_Shadow/kraskaesque. kraska's 9297 is a change of tone in preparation to finally let a mislynch occur on farside. (whose play -AGAIN- is EXTREMELY anti-town and has indeed managed to push me over the limites).
In post 9653, mastin2 wrote:I still maintain farside as town. I also maintain the gems as town. Thus, my theoretical lynch pool does consist of Shadow_Step/Shiro/kraskaesque/TFL/Creature/TWIE. I maintain a townread on TFL.
So that leaves S_S/Shiro/kraska/Creature/TWIE.
In post 9863, mastin2 wrote:kraska's play this game has been basically pure scumposting the entire time. The only thing keeping kraska from being pure scum is a combination of unfamiliarity with kraska's playstyle and mechanics reducing the probability of kraska being scum. So, about 75%.
In post 9973, mastin2 wrote:You might note that my top two scumreads solve this problem nicely: say farside is town. What would the scum event triggering then mean to you?In post 9868, Reasonably Rational wrote:then a scum event was triggered in which only people who were allied could vote.
To me, it points to kraska and Shiro more than any others.You might note I don't exactly believe in luck.It's sheer luck that someone could expend their role utility to both move stress and blow up the scum event.
In post 10101, mastin2 wrote:All valid.In post 10072, grapes wrote:Yea, the kraska hydra has made some pretty walls here and there. That doesn't make them town.
In post 10103, mastin2 wrote:Also, basically, at this stage...who can the scum actuallybe? Serious question, when you think about things.
The possible scum groups are:
Almost50/farside22/Reasonably Rational/kraskaeaque (0-1 scum in here, no more)
...And:
Shadow_Step/Shiro/TheFuzzylogic99/Creature/TheWayItEnds (2-3 scum in here)
I also am basically at the point where if Almost50 is scum I've conceded defeat and as far as I know every other player is at that point as well since he is a universal townread on the same tier as grapes. We also have some decent interactions. Certain teams are less likely than others.
What does Creature flipping town/scum mean to you?
Creature flipping town means there's still 2-3 scum in the second group and nothing more to me. Creature flipping scum means there's 1-2 scum in the second group still and there's maybe a chance useful info can be gleaned from the extra scum body interactions-wise but nothing concrete as far as I can tell.
What does TWIE flipping scum mean?
TWIE flipping scum means there's still 1-2 scum in the second group and we can look at all this pressure on Creature to determine if Creature is a scumbuddy or if scum were trying to save TWIE by going for Creature instead.
In post 10107, mastin2 wrote:TWIE as scum has scumbuddies as kraskaesque > Shiro > Fuzzy/Shadow/Creature.
kraskaesque as scum has scumbuddies as Shiro > TWIE > Fuzzy/Creature > Shadow.
Creature as scum has scumbuddies as kraskaesque > Shiro > Fuzzy/Shadow > RR > farside.
In post 10118, mastin2 wrote:Do you believe the wagon on SirCakez was all town?In post 3223, Varsoon wrote:SirCakez(LYNCH):Not Chara, mastin2, Obi-Wan Kenobi/Titus, McMenno, grapes,,ShiroXkfyu, SnarkySnowman, Yume,,kraskaeaqueKlingoncelt,Reasonably Rational
farside22(3):killthestory/MagnaofIllusion, Firebringer,Almost50
Shiro(2):farside22,Skybird
McMenno(2):CooLDoG/Loopdan/Mathblade,Thefuzzylogic99
Obi-Wan Kenobi/Titus(1):SirCakez
Not Voting (5):Foxbird/Twin Wings/Shadow_step,randomidget,TheWayItEnds,DrippingGoofball,Creature
If not, here's an important question:who is the scum on it?
Essentially, what I'm saying here is: If this is an all-town lynch, it makes no sense. Scum are not applying any resistance to the wagon whatsoever. Skybird wasn't voting at full strength, and the VAST majority of our uncleared players were in the Not Voting category.
If this is not an all-town lynch, there are only three slots which have not been explicitly cleared: Shiro, kraskaesque, and Reasonably Rational.
In post 10119, mastin2 wrote:Key Votecounts:SirCakez was all-town except for Shiro/kraska/RR; Shadow/TWIE/Creature all on Not Voting. Fuzzy on McMenno.
farside was voted by TWIE, DGB, and Skybird; DGB was voted by Shiro, Fuzzy, Creature, and farside. kraska was voting Shadow.
farside was later voted by TWIE/DGB/Skybird/kraska; DGB was voted by Shiro/Fuzzy/Creature. Shadow was voting kraska.
SnarkySnowman was voted by guaranteed-all-town save farside/TWIE; DGB was voted by Fuzzy/Creature.
DGB was voted by Fuzzy/Creature/Shiro/farside. TWIE voted Snarky; kraska voted Shadow.
(The analysis in question can be found in 10162.)In post 10163, mastin2 wrote:Shiro/Fuzzy/Creature still has scum...but it's one, rather than two.
That leaves kraska/RR/Shadow as the other pool, with exactly one scum in there, no more and no less. Unfortunately, unlike a TWIE townflip, there's not much to be gleaned further from the key votecounts. But since the rest of my analysis remains the same, we're left with the possible combinations:
Shiro/kraska
Shiro/Shadow
Fuzzy/kraska
Fuzzy/RR
Fuzzy/Shadow
Creature-kraska
The italicized teams are the ones which have one of Shiro/kraska on them.
The rest are from posts on this day phase, basically refining the above. Basically to sum up my work thusfar on this day phase, all the math, all my algorithms, point to kraska-Creature as a scumteam.In post 10185, mastin2 wrote:If TWIE is scum, these are what's left removing those unlikely:
RR-Fuzzy-TWIE
kraska-Shiro-TWIE
kraska-Fuzzy-TWIE
kraska-Creature-TWIE
Shadow-Shiro-TWIE
Shadow-Fuzzy-TWIE
Shadow-Creature-TWIE
Shiro-Fuzzy-TWIE
Shiro-Creature-TWIE
Fuzzy-Creature-TWIE.
Would like to point this chart out for reference. We know the scum had five votes at their disposal: Skybird, a scumbuddy, TWIE, DGB, and another scumbuddy.In post 7276, Not Chara wrote:Rational: mastin (+1)
Skybird: mastin (+1)
Almost: mastin (+1)
total: 7
Farside: Chara (+2)
total: 5
Kraska: Titus (+1)
Grapes: Titus (+1)
total: 6
Shiro: none
DGB: none
Fuzzy: none (didn't answer?)
TWIE: none
Creature: shadow step
Shadow step: Almost
Your going have to explain this better.In post 10559, kraska77 wrote:no the alliance with farside was a special case. it seems there were effects at play from other events that allowed this to happen. i really did forget that my alliances are conditional, sorryIn post 10557, TheFuzzylogic99 wrote:@Kras
yes you claim that you can not make an alliance with someone if we are at a negative stress rate, That doesn't seem true as you made an alliance before under those circumstances. Even if this was true it would fall under being blocked by an ability,\ in my mind. So yes I have read your posts..... I am just not sure what to believe,
Explain this. I don't remember seeing a very strong town read stance from you on either myself OR farside22, so this comes as a bit of a surprise.In post 10552, Creature wrote:kraska is the only I am not confident is town from the topvoters.
This is a lie, mod had confirmed I was a VT on season finale.In post 10566, kraska77 wrote:at that time barely anyone had claimed. only mastin and titus did i think. i had no clue about anyone else
i can only use this during season finales
Where did that happen?In post 10573, Shadow_step wrote:This is a lie, mod had confirmed I was a VT on season finale.In post 10566, kraska77 wrote:at that time barely anyone had claimed. only mastin and titus did i think. i had no clue about anyone else
i can only use this during season finales