STEVEN UNIVERSE 2 - GAME OVER


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Post Post #10550 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2016 10:24 am

Post by Varsoon »

"I've got you. You've got this. We've all got each other!"
Steven,
Gem Drill
VOTECOUNT 6.02


Creature (2):
randomidget, mastin2
Kraska77 (2):
Shadow_Step, Farside22
Shiro (1):
Creature

Not Voting (7):
Almost50, Shiro, Reasonably Rational, grapes, Kraska77, MagnaofIllusion, Thefuzzylogic99

With 12 Alive, it takes 7 to Lynch.
Due to the Stress being at -4, it only takes 6 to Lynch town.
Due to the Stress being at -4, the scum factional kill will always succeed.
Deadline
: (expired on 2016-11-23 10:00:00)

The Current Stress is -4, SLICE OF LIFE:

Image
Last edited by Varsoon on Fri Nov 11, 2016 3:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #10551 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2016 11:21 am

Post by Creature »

In post 10240, Creature wrote:1-2 scum in Shiro/Fuzzy/me/Shadow

0-1 scum in RR/Almost/farside/kraska/grapes
Sigh
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Post Post #10552 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2016 11:21 am

Post by Creature »

kraska is the only I am not confident is town from the topvoters.
Sigh
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Post Post #10553 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2016 11:26 am

Post by grapes »

Yo kraska please answer my question; why were you considering using your ability thing on me specifically?
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Post Post #10554 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2016 11:51 am

Post by TheFuzzylogic99 »

@MOI
So your answer to me is pretty much screw you I don't have to answer for something that might be consider scummy bc I wont be lynched. Heck I'm was not even scum reading you. Yes I was suspicious but I was not scum reading you. Now you made me a bit more suspicious. I don't think the question I asked were unreasonable..

@ Almost
Can you confirm about what I said in the post I directed toward you. Thanks
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Post Post #10555 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2016 11:53 am

Post by kraska77 »

god damn it fuzzy atleast read my posts
i already explained why our allience didnt work
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Post Post #10556 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2016 11:58 am

Post by kraska77 »

In post 10553, grapes wrote:Yo kraska please answer my question; why were you considering using your ability thing on me specifically?
what is there to explain? i think ure the only strong town player here who has a healthy perspective of the game(readjusting reads whenever new information comes up and so on) and other than u thinking im scum, i agree with ur reads for the most part. i know u wouldnt push for lynches on fuzzy or creature(who are being set-up as future mislynches right now)...atleast not while shiro's still around
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Post Post #10557 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2016 12:00 pm

Post by TheFuzzylogic99 »

@Kras
yes you claim that you can not make an alliance with someone if we are at a negative stress rate, That doesn't seem true as you made an alliance before under those circumstances. Even if this was true it would fall under being blocked by an ability,\ in my mind. So yes I have read your posts..... I am just not sure what to believe,
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Post Post #10558 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2016 12:01 pm

Post by TheFuzzylogic99 »

I think you said it was -2 or lower if my memory serves me right,
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Post Post #10559 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2016 12:04 pm

Post by kraska77 »

In post 10557, TheFuzzylogic99 wrote:@Kras
yes you claim that you can not make an alliance with someone if we are at a negative stress rate, That doesn't seem true as you made an alliance before under those circumstances. Even if this was true it would fall under being blocked by an ability,\ in my mind. So yes I have read your posts..... I am just not sure what to believe,
no the alliance with farside was a special case. it seems there were effects at play from other events that allowed this to happen. i really did forget that my alliances are conditional, sorry
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Post Post #10560 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2016 12:06 pm

Post by farside22 »

Farside – please summarize all your checks in one post (including Night you activated it and full results you got).
Night 1: rb Shiro, no point given that day.
Night 2: rb grapes, no point given
Night 3: No action
Night 4: checked to see if any alliance bonus given to rr.
Was told he gets none. This also checked Shiro and Titus.
Shiro has none and Titus gains the ability to stop any nk from a player that she is aligned with can not kill her.
Night 5: rb Shiro, no point given that day.
Sarcasm is just a way of saying how stupid you think someone is but in a more polite way.
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Post Post #10561 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2016 12:09 pm

Post by farside22 »

Sorry I received a point the day beach event was on and I received a point the day we lynched twie.
Those points came from being targeted by others.
Sarcasm is just a way of saying how stupid you think someone is but in a more polite way.
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Post Post #10562 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2016 12:12 pm

Post by TheFuzzylogic99 »

Kras
Mo problem...... it happens. Anyways I would not vigged anyone anyways today. Not sure if you are town or scum. Nor what to make of your Lylo claim
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Post Post #10563 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2016 12:15 pm

Post by Almost50 »

@Fuzzy:

Sorry! I thought you had already figured out I was talking about top voters in beach-a-balooza for certain, not that you were asking for confirmation. YES, I am analyzing the beach-a-balooza votes, not the lynch votes.

Modded 2 Opens & 2 Large Themed games successfully.
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Post Post #10564 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2016 12:25 pm

Post by grapes »

In post 10556, kraska77 wrote:what is there to explain? i think ure the only strong town player here who has a healthy perspective of the game(readjusting reads whenever new information comes up and so on) and other than u thinking im scum, i agree with ur reads for the most part. i know u wouldnt push for lynches on fuzzy or creature(who are being set-up as future mislynches right now)...atleast not while shiro's still around
Flattery will get you everywhere ;)

Also when you have a role that alters other people's roles why does what their reads are and competency factor in and not what they've claimed already? Like why not hook up someone like shadow who you already know doesn't have an event? Or someone who's already used theirs?

I'm also weird on the "you've got good reads but they're also malleable to new information"
Seems disingenuous because you literally emo posted after I voted you yesterday and I've been coming around on voting creature.

When exactly were you contemplating using this? Let's iron out the timelines.

Why do you think creature's town?
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Post Post #10565 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2016 12:26 pm

Post by TheFuzzylogic99 »

@Almost
atleast we are on the same train now......
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Post Post #10566 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2016 12:30 pm

Post by kraska77 »

In post 10564, grapes wrote:Also when you have a role that alters other people's roles why does what their reads are and competency factor in and not what they've claimed already? Like why not hook up someone like shadow who you already know doesn't have an event? Or someone who's already used theirs?
at that time barely anyone had claimed. only mastin and titus did i think. i had no clue about anyone else
i can only use this during season finales
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Post Post #10567 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2016 2:27 pm

Post by mastin2 »

In post 10549, MagnaofIllusion wrote:I'm leaning kraska over Creature now. Have anything I'm missing from prior days to help solidify that read for me?
The simplest answer would be to control-f my three-page iso (well pages 2 and 3 at least) for kraska mentions. But I have the time, and I don't feel like being a snide jerk right now, so I'll go do that for ya. About half of it won't be of much use, but you asked for me to give you what I had, and this is what that is.
In post 5627, mastin2 wrote:
In post 5478, grapes wrote:VOTE: Kraskaesque
Understandable. I really empathize with why you voted after .
In post 6151, mastin2 wrote:
In post 5865, kraskaesque wrote:Wtf? You "empathize" with why he voted after 5477? You "get it"? You "really do"?
Yes.
I understand
exactly
why he voted you. I understand why he saw it as scummy. I understand why he thinks you're scum. I understand that, and I can't say I really disagree. The best I can give you is that I might not agree. Because you've lost your towncred. You had it early-on. And then you coasted.
A lot.

A lot, a lot.

So you're sitting on the south side of null.

Want towncred back?

Then do something town.
This aint it.
If you don't town it up, I will support lynching you tomorrow.
In post 7731, mastin2 wrote:Going into the night, I had a POE pool which looked something like this: kraskaesque//DrippingGoofball/Shadow_step, in approximately that order but with lots of guesswork involved. kraskaesque is my top scumread. As in, they're strongly, STRONGLY read as scum. kraskaesque. By both my analysis, and by an overlook of their play. (Iso them, you'll see some of what I'm getting at.)
In post 7732, mastin2 wrote:It's a combination of things. Their contributions to this game (rather, lack thereof), some hypocrisy on their part, flat pushes with no conviction (empty tone, essentially), plus some really bad, damning positioning in VCA.

Go iso them yourself and see if you can figure out what I mean by this. And also, iso the mod and see where kraskaesque falls on key wagons. (Keep also in mind: SirCakez was bussed. Proof?
Where's his counterwagon?
If scum made an effort to save SirCakez, why is there no actual counterwagon? They gave up on him at some point, which means at some point...they started bussing.)
In post 7768, mastin2 wrote:
In post 7745, kraskaesque wrote:explain the "some hypocrisy on their part" part
That would be your "case" against Shadow. I use air quotes for good reason.
In post 7819, mastin2 wrote:
In post 7773, Reasonably Rational wrote:Yeah, that's the main problem I have with your case kraska. I asked you to make a case on shadow using JUST his iso, not foxbirds, and I don't believe you ever did so.
You're quite correct on kraska.
In post 7826, mastin2 wrote:
In post 7788, McMenno wrote:my eyes are bleeding is that normal
If you actually tried reading kraskaesque's wall of text? Then yes.
I mean, I suppose you
could
read it, if you needed any further evidence for why kraska's scum, but otherwise...
(This in reference to .)
In post 7828, mastin2 wrote:
In post 7804, farside22 wrote:kraska scum game is more lurky with very little reason for scum reads.
Okay. Serious question. If this isn't a lurky game with very little reason for scumreads.
What the fucking hell
is
?!?

Because, um. Yeah.
That's basically the HEART of my case on kraskaesque: their absolute lurkfest of an iso with very little reasoning for their scumreads, spanning across the whole game.
In post 7837, mastin2 wrote:
In post 3223, Varsoon wrote:
SirCakez (LYNCH):
grapes
,
Shiro
,
Kraskaeaque
,
Reasonably Rational

Farside22 (3):
Almost50

Shiro (2):
Farside22, Skybird

McMenno (2):
Thefuzzylogic99
Obi-Wan Kenobi (1):
SirCakez
Not Voting (5):
Foxbird, TheWayItEnds, DrippingGoofball,
Creature
Not quite accurate, but deleted = no chance of being scum, strikethrough = strong (maybe mechanical) reason to believe not scum, underline = strong read as not scum, italics = weaker (less-substantiated, speculative) reason to not be scum.
SirCakez had no effective counterwagon. You can see spots where scum could, feasibly, be, but otherwise, the entirety of the possible locations for scum are: on the SirCakez wagon, and in the Not Voting pile.
And if you look at kraskaesque, they do literally join
right
at the prime bussing spot, at a time where his lynch was inevitable.
The number of people Not Voting there is suspicious, no?
It's almost as if scum knew SirCakez was flipping scum, knew that lynch couldn't be stopped, and were trying to avoid being caught on it.

Also, run a cross-reference of the names on Not Voting/SirCakez with the names of those who claimed to have not voted/voted not in the top in the Beach event. RR, kraskaesque, and grapes are literally the only four excluded. ALL of Shiro/Shadow_step/TWIE/DGB fall in the grouping of worthless/no votes. I also have reason to believe Shiro is town.
Giving a more limited pool of Shadow_step//TWIE/DGB.
In post 7851, mastin2 wrote:My case against kraskaesque relies mainly on two factors: their lackluster play, and their bad voting pattern in established VCA.
In post 7856, mastin2 wrote:
In post 7853, Reasonably Rational wrote:if you prefer Kraskaesque can you explain it? Your approach and ours are really different, as you know. Explain it to me like I'm five.
First off: speculation. If the scumteam has a rational thinker...I think it could be at least one head of kraskaesque. I don't have any rational explanation to justify this. This is my first game with either of the heads as far as I know, so it's not like I have intimate knowledge of them. I don't even have a solid psychological profile. But my gut is telling me, for some reason, that at least one head of kraskaesque is deceptively smart, able to make calculated plays and run the risks and roll the die with smart action choices.

I really wish I had more experience with them to confirm, either alignment would really work because mechanical knowledge as scum tends to not mystically disappear when the slot is town. (Quite the contrary, actually! It's more well-hidden as scum.) So, an inexplicable
feeling
that they are the missing piece in the puzzle, for why the scumteam has made the choices they have.

Second, they fit the same profile for scum play. They have been avoiding the major wagons. The only exception? SirCakez...at the time his lynch became inevitable.

Third, they have made zero pushes that had substance to them.

Fourth, they've been lurking a lot, and this is especially egregious because they are a hydra and neither head has had a marked V/LA that I can recall, at least to my knowledge.

Fifth, hypocrisy: a huge part of their case against Shadow_step is off of Foxbird's (and later, the hydra with Foxbird) inactivity, when Foxbird was V/LA for most of the game. Another huge part of their case against Shadow_step? Aside from inactivity, a lack of content...but a look at their iso will reveal the majority of it to be fluff, and the few times they make a push, it is empty and reasonless, without much substance.

Sixth, their lack of broad reads. You know they have a scumread on Shadow_step. Okay. What about other reads?

They've been narrowly on one subject, and one subject only, for pretty much the whole game.
In post 8136, mastin2 wrote:
In post 7976, kraskaesque wrote:The people who allied with yume seem to have polar opinions on farside. This is pretty weird and I'm trying to figure out what's going on here, stop calling this fishing
Okay, so this is pretty much textbook scum middlemanning. Peacekeeping.
This is a scum peacekeeper.

Remember how I said Titus was a town peacekeeper? I described it way back near the very beginning of D2.
In that wall, , I describe what a scum peacekeeper is.

And this?

THIS is the scum counterpart.
In post 8138, mastin2 wrote:
In post 7988, kraskaesque wrote:Mastin and moi having polar opinions on farside should have made people inclined to ask wtf is going on
Like. Town peacekeeping: recognizing the issue, trying to resolve it, and give direction to it. Scum peacekeeping: pointing the issue out and doing fuckall to solve it.
Tell me which of the above this peacekeeping post is?
In post 8141, mastin2 wrote:
In post 8009, Almost50 wrote:It's really getting to me that each of you has her own "couple of players" she insists on being Town for no apparent reason.
(This post, by the way? Town peacekeeper. He tries to dissolve the conflict and give input. Contrast kraskaesque.)
In post 8158, mastin2 wrote:
In post 8140, Titus wrote:
In post 8138, mastin2 wrote:
In post 7988, kraskaesque wrote:Mastin and moi having polar opinions on farside should have made people inclined to ask wtf is going on
Like. Town peacekeeping: recognizing the issue, trying to resolve it, and give direction to it. Scum peacekeeping: pointing the issue out and doing fuckall to solve it.
Tell me which of the above this peacekeeping post is?
A scum peacekeeper just tells everyone to play nice and see it the other way.
Kraska wants to get to the bottom of this here and know why.
Except, that's fucking literally all kraskaesque was doing.
Your definition for a scum peacekeeper is correct! Telling people to play nice and see the other way. But that's exactly what the post is.
Compare it to your peacekeeping. Compare it to Almost50's. Compare it to mine when I do it.
It's night and fucking day.
In post 8143, mastin2 wrote:
In post 8089, Varsoon wrote:
Farside22 (LYNCH?):
TheWayItEnds,
DrippingGoofball
,
Skybird
,
Kraskaeaque
,
Almost50

DrippingGoofball (3):
Shiro
, Thefuzzylogic99,
Creature

SnarkySnowman (3):
grapes
,
Farside22

Kraskaesque (1):
Shadow_Step

Shadow_Step (1):

Not Voting (2):
Reasonably Rational
Justsayin'.
In post 8162, mastin2 wrote:
In post 8150, Titus wrote:All Shadow did was point at people and say look at them.
You sure you're reading players right?
'Cause that's what kraskaesque was doing.
In post 8937, mastin2 wrote:
In post 8783, Titus wrote:Scum picked you. Ever wonder why Mastina?
Not in the least, no. Smart scumplay is strategically dispersing and claiming of their votes. Scum voting me, and having one scum back them, is reasonable.Scum voting you, and having one scum back them, is also reasonable. Especially in conjunction with the above.
Scum voting Not Chara, and having the full fucking team back that except two randomly on me, is not so reasonable.
The goal for scum in voting during the Beachapalooza event is to
not stick out
. Taking actions which stick out,
especially
if a scum member dies, is counterproductive.
Thus, one reason I continue to have that kraskaesque suspicion.
If TWIE/S_S/SS is the scumteam, all the remaining scum were in the not voters, but the more I think about it, the more I think it likely there's a second scum in the top voters...but not on MY wagon, and not on Not Chara's wagon.
If scum had a perfect distribution (and ignoring DGB), we'd have one scum on me (Skybird), one scum on you, one scum in the none, and one scum in those claiming to have voted someone.
In post 8973, mastin2 wrote:
In post 599, SirCakez wrote:Scum pool = Mcmenno, kraskaesque, obi
By the way, Titus: rule of three, you're fond of it, right? Which of these three do you think is most likely to be scum?
In post 9639, mastin2 wrote:
In post 9348, Almost50 wrote:Scum are in TWIE/Step_Shadow/kraskaesque. kraska's is a change of tone in preparation to finally let a mislynch occur on farside. (whose play -AGAIN- is EXTREMELY anti-town and has indeed managed to push me over the limites).
Pretty much yeah.
In post 9653, mastin2 wrote:I still maintain farside as town. I also maintain the gems as town. Thus, my theoretical lynch pool does consist of Shadow_Step/Shiro/kraskaesque/TFL/Creature/TWIE. I maintain a townread on TFL.
So that leaves S_S/Shiro/kraska/Creature/TWIE.
In post 9863, mastin2 wrote:kraska's play this game has been basically pure scumposting the entire time. The only thing keeping kraska from being pure scum is a combination of unfamiliarity with kraska's playstyle and mechanics reducing the probability of kraska being scum. So, about 75%.
In post 9973, mastin2 wrote:
In post 9868, Reasonably Rational wrote:then a scum event was triggered in which only people who were allied could vote.
You might note that my top two scumreads solve this problem nicely: say farside is town. What would the scum event triggering then mean to you?
To me, it points to kraska and Shiro more than any others.
It's sheer luck that someone could expend their role utility to both move stress and blow up the scum event.
You might note I don't exactly believe in luck.
In post 10101, mastin2 wrote:
In post 10072, grapes wrote:Yea, the kraska hydra has made some pretty walls here and there. That doesn't make them town.
All valid.
In post 10103, mastin2 wrote:Also, basically, at this stage...who can the scum actually
be
? Serious question, when you think about things.
The possible scum groups are:
Almost50/farside22/Reasonably Rational/kraskaeaque (0-1 scum in here, no more)
...And:
Shadow_Step/Shiro/TheFuzzylogic99/Creature/TheWayItEnds (2-3 scum in here)

I also am basically at the point where if Almost50 is scum I've conceded defeat and as far as I know every other player is at that point as well since he is a universal townread on the same tier as grapes. We also have some decent interactions. Certain teams are less likely than others.

What does Creature flipping town/scum mean to you?
Creature flipping town means there's still 2-3 scum in the second group and nothing more to me. Creature flipping scum means there's 1-2 scum in the second group still and there's maybe a chance useful info can be gleaned from the extra scum body interactions-wise but nothing concrete as far as I can tell.
What does TWIE flipping scum mean?
TWIE flipping scum means there's still 1-2 scum in the second group and we can look at all this pressure on Creature to determine if Creature is a scumbuddy or if scum were trying to save TWIE by going for Creature instead.
In post 10107, mastin2 wrote:TWIE as scum has scumbuddies as kraskaesque > Shiro > Fuzzy/Shadow/Creature.
kraskaesque as scum has scumbuddies as Shiro > TWIE > Fuzzy/Creature > Shadow.
Creature as scum has scumbuddies as kraskaesque > Shiro > Fuzzy/Shadow > RR > farside.
In post 10118, mastin2 wrote:
In post 3223, Varsoon wrote:
SirCakez
(LYNCH):
Not Chara, mastin2, Obi-Wan Kenobi/Titus, McMenno, grapes
,
Shiro
,
Xkfyu, SnarkySnowman, Yume
,
kraskaeaque
,
Klingoncelt
,
Reasonably Rational

farside22
(3):
killthestory/MagnaofIllusion, Firebringer
,
Almost50

Shiro
(2):
farside22
,
Skybird

McMenno
(2):
CooLDoG/Loopdan/Mathblade
,
Thefuzzylogic99

Obi-Wan Kenobi/Titus
(1):
SirCakez

Not Voting (5):
Foxbird/Twin Wings/Shadow_step
,
randomidget
,
TheWayItEnds
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Creature
Do you believe the wagon on SirCakez was all town?
If not, here's an important question:
who is the scum on it?


Essentially, what I'm saying here is: If this is an all-town lynch, it makes no sense. Scum are not applying any resistance to the wagon whatsoever. Skybird wasn't voting at full strength, and the VAST majority of our uncleared players were in the Not Voting category.
If this is not an all-town lynch, there are only three slots which have not been explicitly cleared: Shiro, kraskaesque, and Reasonably Rational.
In post 10119, mastin2 wrote:
Key Votecounts:
SirCakez was all-town except for Shiro/kraska/RR; Shadow/TWIE/Creature all on Not Voting. Fuzzy on McMenno.
farside was voted by TWIE, DGB, and Skybird; DGB was voted by Shiro, Fuzzy, Creature, and farside. kraska was voting Shadow.
farside was later voted by TWIE/DGB/Skybird/kraska; DGB was voted by Shiro/Fuzzy/Creature. Shadow was voting kraska.
SnarkySnowman was voted by guaranteed-all-town save farside/TWIE; DGB was voted by Fuzzy/Creature.
DGB was voted by Fuzzy/Creature/Shiro/farside. TWIE voted Snarky; kraska voted Shadow.
In post 10163, mastin2 wrote:Shiro/Fuzzy/Creature still has scum...but it's one, rather than two.
That leaves kraska/RR/Shadow as the other pool, with exactly one scum in there, no more and no less. Unfortunately, unlike a TWIE townflip, there's not much to be gleaned further from the key votecounts. But since the rest of my analysis remains the same, we're left with the possible combinations:
Shiro/kraska

Shiro/Shadow
Fuzzy/kraska

Fuzzy/RR
Fuzzy/Shadow
Creature-kraska

The italicized teams are the ones which have one of Shiro/kraska on them.
(The analysis in question can be found in .)
In post 10185, mastin2 wrote:If TWIE is scum, these are what's left removing those unlikely:
RR-Fuzzy-TWIE
kraska-Shiro-TWIE
kraska-Fuzzy-TWIE
kraska-Creature-TWIE
Shadow-Shiro-TWIE
Shadow-Fuzzy-TWIE
Shadow-Creature-TWIE
Shiro-Fuzzy-TWIE
Shiro-Creature-TWIE
Fuzzy-Creature-TWIE.
The rest are from posts on this day phase, basically refining the above. Basically to sum up my work thusfar on this day phase, all the math, all my algorithms, point to kraska-Creature as a scumteam.

I'm hoping--even praying--that's the case, because quite bluntly, I don't know what to do if I'm wrong. I've been trying to figure that out. People are actually
agreeing
with me in my scumhunting, and if I'm fully honest, that's actually freaking me out quite a lot. I'm not used to people thinking I'm right. In short, kraska-Creature is my assumed scumteam, but right now, I have no fallback plan. No worst-case scenario where one or both of them flip town. I'd prefer having that, but I don't, and everyone seemingly being more or less in agreement with my reads (save the lynchees, kraska and Creature)? Not exactly helping. :P
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Post Post #10568 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2016 2:57 pm

Post by mastin2 »

In post 7276, Not Chara wrote:Rational: mastin (+1)
Skybird: mastin (+1)
Almost: mastin (+1)
total: 7

Farside: Chara (+2)
total: 5

Kraska: Titus (+1)
Grapes: Titus (+1)
total: 6

Shiro: none
DGB: none
Fuzzy: none (didn't answer?)
TWIE: none

Creature: shadow step
Shadow step: Almost
Would like to point this chart out for reference. We know the scum had five votes at their disposal: Skybird, a scumbuddy, TWIE, DGB, and another scumbuddy.
For RR/A50 to be scum, the scumteam would have had to have poured four of their members into me, giving me two points, and claimed half of them. DGB/TWIE/third scumbuddy would be left in the remainder. DGB and TWIE both claimed none. If RR/A50 were scum with Fuzzy or Shiro, then that would mean all the scum outside the topvoters decided to place themselves in the "none" category, a move which makes no sense.
If RR/A50 were scum with Creature/Shadow, then they distributed things a little more evenly.

For farside to be scum, the scumteam would have had to have poured two of their members into me (Skybird + one), and then their entire remaining strength (farside + two) into Not Chara. This is a move which seems about as doubtful as them piling four of their five votes into me: it is putting the entire scumteam's strength into one spot.
If farside is scum with Fuzzy or Shiro, then that means the scum outside the topvoters decided to place themselves all in the none category.
If farside is scum with Creature/Shadow, then things make more sense.

For there to be no topvoter scum left alive, the scum would have to have placed two votes into me (Skybird/scumbuddy), and then let their other three votes be wasted elsewhere, potentially at the risk of confirming town. That doesn't make much sense to me. Furthermore, this would make two of Fuzzy/Shiro|Creature/Shadow scum. If Fuzzy/Shiro were the scumteam, literally all the scum claimed to have not voted. I think you can see the improbability of that. Fuzzy/Creature, Fuzzy/Shadow, Shiro/Shadow, and Creature/Shadow become the possibilities then.

For kraska to be scum, the scumteam would have poured two of their members into one conftown (Skybird + one), and then two members into a second conftown (kraska + one), leaving one vote free to be used...or more likely, not cast at all. (Using a vote would risk the .5 showing if it's a solo-vote.) This is appealing to me, because it keeps the scumteam reasonably even in distribution across the board. They'd have no way of anticipating farside + Not Chara (which is one reason Not Chara may have died), but they'd be in the top spots they
could
influence.
If kraska is scum with Fuzzy or Shiro, then the scum outside the topvoters again placed themselves all in the none category, with perhaps one of them telling the truth. The "all" part is again where the doubt comes in; it's a strategic nightmare for them to place themselves all inside the same category which the town is specifically working on analyzing and running POE on.

If kraska is scum with Creature (no Shadow chance, because yeah), then the scumteam had a near-perfect distribution (without having anticipated Not Chara, which they could not have done): Skybird on me. kraska on Titus. TWIE in the none. Creature in the worthless-vote. DGB would be a duplicate no-vote, buuuuuuuut, she's also a traitor, so her no vote would be more likely to be seen by town analysts as being unconnected to the scumteam. This is very appealing to my senses of scum mindset, of scum thinking.

The only fault in this analysis though is that it's assuming optimum scum play was in...well, play, and that is something I hold no guarantee of.
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Post Post #10569 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2016 3:11 pm

Post by TheFuzzylogic99 »

@ Mastin
any combo with me as scum is wrong........

Purple Unknown Town Green earth lt Blue Gems red Scum
VOTECOUNT 1.16 : LYNCH!
SirCakez
(LYNCH):
Not Chara
,
mastin2
,
Titus , McMenno
, grapes, Shiro,
Xkfyu
,
SnarkySnowman
,
Yume
, Kraskaeaque,
Klingoncelt
, Reasonably Rational
Farside22 (3): MOI,
Firebringer
, Almost50
Shiro (2): Farside22,
Skybird

McMenno
(2):
Blades
,
Thefuzzylogic99

Titus
(1):
SirCakez

Not Voting (5): Shadow , randomidget,
TheWayItEnds, DrippingGoofball
, Creature

Vote 2
Mathblade
(LYNCH):
mastin2
, Almost50,
Xkfyu
,
McMenno
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Yume
,
Titus
, Creature, Farside22,
Not Chara
, grapes,
Mathblade
,
Firebringer
DrippingGoofball
(3):
Klingoncelt, SnarkySnowman
, Shiro
Shadow_Step (1): Kraskaeaque
Farside22 (1): randomidget
grapes (1): MOI
Xkfyu
(1):
Skybird

TheFuzzyLogic99
(1): Shadow_Step
Not Voting (3): Reasonably Rational,
TheWayItEnds
,
TheFuzzylogic99



Vote 3
Farside22 (LYNCH?):
Titus, SnarkySnowman
, MagnaofIllusion,
TheWayItEnds, DrippingGoofball, Skybird
,
Yume, Xkfyu
,
Not Chara
,
McMenno
, Kraskaeaque, Almost50
DrippingGoofball
(3): Shiro,
Thefuzzylogic99
, Creature
SnarkySnowman
(3):
mastin2
, grapes, Farside22
Kraskaesque (1): Shadow_Step
Shadow_Step (1):
Firebringer

Not Voting (2): Reasonably Rational, randomidget

DrippingGoofball
(LYNCH):
Thefuzzylogic99, SnarkySnowman
, MagnaofIllusion, Creature,
Titus
, Shiro,
Firebringer,
grapes,
McMenno
, Farside22,
Not Chara

SnarkySnowman
(2):
mastin2
,
TheWayItEnds
Farside22 (1): Almost50
Shadow_Step (1): Kraskaeaque
Not Voting (5): Shadow_Step,
Xkfyu,
DrippingGoofball
, Reasonably Rational, randomidget

SnarkySnowman (LYNCH):
mastin2,
Creature,
McMenno
, Farside22

TheWayItEnds
(2):
SnarkySnowman, Titus
Shadow_Step (1): Almost50
Thefuzzylogic99
(1): Shadow_Step

Not Voting (9):
Xkfyu
, Shiro, Reasonably Rational, grapes, Kraskaeaque, MagnaofIllusion,
Thefuzzylogic99
, randomidget,
TheWayItEnds



TheWayItEnds (LYNCH): Kraska77,
mastin2
, ReasonablyRational, Creature,
Thefuzzylogic99
, Almost50, Farside22

Creature (2): MagnaofIllusion, Shadow_Step
Kraska77 (1): grapes

Not Voting (3): Shiro, randomidget,
TheWayItEnds
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Post Post #10570 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2016 3:43 pm

Post by farside22 »

In post 10559, kraska77 wrote:
In post 10557, TheFuzzylogic99 wrote:@Kras
yes you claim that you can not make an alliance with someone if we are at a negative stress rate, That doesn't seem true as you made an alliance before under those circumstances. Even if this was true it would fall under being blocked by an ability,\ in my mind. So yes I have read your posts..... I am just not sure what to believe,
no the alliance with farside was a special case. it seems there were effects at play from other events that allowed this to happen. i really did forget that my alliances are conditional, sorry
Your going have to explain this better.
Also if you were worried about grapes, why not mastin, or me or someone you were town reading otherwise.
These are why I think your bsing about your claim.
Sarcasm is just a way of saying how stupid you think someone is but in a more polite way.
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Post Post #10571 (ISO) » Sat Nov 12, 2016 2:25 am

Post by Reasonably Rational »

In post 10552, Creature wrote:kraska is the only I am not confident is town from the topvoters.
Explain this. I don't remember seeing a very strong town read stance from you on either myself OR farside22, so this comes as a bit of a surprise.

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Post Post #10572 (ISO) » Sat Nov 12, 2016 2:33 am

Post by Creature »

farside22 I was already confident she wasn't scum, but I thought she could be third party. Though, now I find it less likely.

You because of the beach-a-palooza event.
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Post Post #10573 (ISO) » Sat Nov 12, 2016 3:23 am

Post by Shadow_step »

In post 10566, kraska77 wrote:at that time barely anyone had claimed. only mastin and titus did i think. i had no clue about anyone else
i can only use this during season finales
This is a lie, mod had confirmed I was a VT on season finale.
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Post Post #10574 (ISO) » Sat Nov 12, 2016 3:45 am

Post by farside22 »

In post 10573, Shadow_step wrote:
In post 10566, kraska77 wrote:at that time barely anyone had claimed. only mastin and titus did i think. i had no clue about anyone else
i can only use this during season finales
This is a lie, mod had confirmed I was a VT on season finale.
Where did that happen?
Sarcasm is just a way of saying how stupid you think someone is but in a more polite way.

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