Mini Normal 1839 - Dead/Spectator PT

[Foxbird]

If karnos is scum he is going to go a lot further, but right now i don't think he is.

Probably Lowell/Saru?
Doubtful its Nero Cain, Mathblade, or bji

Do you want spoilers?

It has also come to my attention that I forgot to give Thor the PT link until just now because I'm a derp.
Hi Thor!

[Thor665]

I think it's unethical for a more fundamental reason. Scum shot me, that was a choice. Or town lynched me, that's a choice. It's important not to undo that choice.

Amen to that.
Had it happen once in a game a few years ago and it was unamusing.

If karnos is scum he is going to go a lot further, but right now i don't think he is.

Probably Lowell/Saru?
Doubtful its Nero Cain, Mathblade, or bji

I will say, that thus far, barring PRs, my scum lynch has always resulted in an incorrect association based lynch afterwards.
I'm pretty good at leaving bad connection information for people because I talk so much and am very free with opinions as scum.

I do think town is trying hard to help out the scum team in this game at the moment.

[Fire Assassin]

Do you want spoilers?

how about one a day?

[Fire Assassin]

I estimate that Saru or Lowell gets lynched tomorrow but i believe it will be a mislynch of one of them but i think the other is scum.
Not sure.

Don't give me spoilers on that.

[Thor665]

I think Penguin and Nero probably have a bit of dancing to do to avoid a noose tomorrow also.
There are actually a lot of scumspects and not a lot of clarity of reads, so it makes it interesting as to who might topple into the gears, that's for sure.

[Fire Assassin]

I think Penguin and Nero probably have a bit of dancing to do to avoid a noose tomorrow also.
There are actually a lot of scumspects and not a lot of clarity of reads, so it makes it interesting as to who might topple into the gears, that's for sure.

Penguin will be fine.
Not sure on Nero.

[Thor665]

You say that, I'm less sure - might depend on the NKs, but Penguin straight up defended me and then reversed in a way that could make a case on him. He's also always struck me as pretty lynchable...albeit I generally lead that charge, so maybe he's not as lynchable without me? Guess we'll see.

Only thing I feel for my scumbuddies for is a bit too much of a drove of kills.
I generally agree with their choice today as long as they do a specific one tomorrow night though.

[Foxbird]

Welcome, aronagrundy!

[Foxbird]

Here's a little fun fact:

Both factions have one PR left, though I doubt either of them are going to change the game much at this point.

[Thor665]

Not a bad kill overall, as the claim would be out there for clearing after FA's death, and I don't think Aron had much suspicion on him.
Curious to see how this day plays out - if my team manages a mislynch today then I think town is probably doomed.

[Foxbird]

Hood info:

Only town in there still, aronagrundy added karnos before he died.

[aronagrundy]

Hey y'all, I shamelessly sheeped others for most of the game and it turned out alright I guess.

[aronagrundy]

Anyway I was probably wrong about saru but oh well

[aronagrundy]

Well, maybe. D2 saru played like Thor's buddy but d1 saru trying to push Thor toward the end made me doubt that. Tbh he seemed to believe he was getting lynched so he might have just been getting the heat off Thor.

Also the entire returning cast of 1800 needs a therapist because clearly they're all traumatized by what happened

[Thor665]

Yeah, something is wonky there.
Frankly, just reading the posts today makes me never want to play with Iron ever again - he is being directly offensive and rude with almost no basis.
Dude, I wasn't lynched because there wasn't a case on me, scum buddies avoided hard bussing, and I claimed in a way to make it hard to get a lynch. You're basically complaining that scum played well and that you didn't functionally communicate a case and blaming everyone else for...I'm not even sure what.
Weird and unpleasant.

Intereting to see some of town's theorizing here - lots of people are spouting off opinions without a lot of votes being placed - no one is as confident as they sound, including Iron who is doing the same.

I think everyone's fishing a bit trying to sound out feelings and maybe trigger a slip.

[Thor665]

Pretty much I feel like the first player in Lowell, Saru, Nero to say something really daft is probably going to get lynched.

[Fire Assassin]

I wouldn't be surprised if iron got force replaced, its heading that way at least.
Unfortunate.

[Foxbird]

There's actually two town PRs left! Whoops. Overlooked one because it doesn't have a night action and wasn't in my night action list thingie.

[Thor665]

Unfortunate for the scum team, who will benefit from abrasive players distracting and tearing up the game, sure.
Fortunate in a 'why are you doing this in a game?' way though
Frankly, if you're actually that angry in a game you should replace out.
And if you're faking being that angry as a strategy you should learn to play better.
My take.

[callforjudgement]

For what it's worth, if I were playing, I may well have deadline lynched you even if I thought you were town. Letting the day go to no lynch is typically really bad because you aren't any better off the next morning, but you're a mislynch down. (This is different if there's reason to think the game is or might go to evens.)

[Thor665]

Meh, I'd rather no lynch than lynch someone I think is town - when town starts voting for town reads, town is playing badly in my opinion. I get the theory 'but what if my reads are wrong' concept but, you need to have faith in your reads or else you should play with a RNG to dictate all your votes.

Feel bad for Math beating himself up for that stuff with Titus when Math was the only town player parsing that a Gunsmith guilty *isn't* the same as a scum investigation. Sweet mercy lad, you were the one playing it right even if Titus was correct and you were wrong in your scum reads - that part doesn't change that Titus was using moon logic. Broken clocks and all that.

[Thor665]

Fascinating that people keep listing Karnos and Bji as potential scumbuddies to me and no real issues with Penguin.
Evidence #215,827 that bussing is a gakky strategy nowadays with no point.
In case anyone still didn't buy into my theories on that.

Of course I do see some people not thinking it was bussing or distancing, so that's a potential off put.
We'll see - day is still in a lot of flux at the moment.

[callforjudgement]

If you analyse the theory behind bussing, you discover that it's

usually

the wrong option but it's correct to do it occasionally. (This shows in my play, too; I've bussed my entire scumteam on occasion but the majority of games where I'm scum, I hold a townread on my scumbuddies.)
However, many players seem to assume that it's going to happen every game (which should just make you more inclined to not bus until the meta is more normalized).

[Thor665]

I note that your last comment was remarkably in line with my advanced concept.
So, yes, i agree.

[callforjudgement]

Yes, I was agreeing with you and trying to add some more context.

I'd add the caveat that if there are theory reasons to expect at least one scum to be inevitably caught, it's normally correct to work out who's the most expendable and bus them. This is rare in Normals but can happen in role madness.