There are three people whose alignments matter: Chaos, Arc, and TF. If any of these are town, scum will want to kill them.
Spoiler: brute force math
1)
Ct At Tt
Unlikely. Anyone could die in this case. Probably Chaos, though scum might kill TF to engineer a false 2) or 6).
2)
Cs At Tt
Chaos lives to day 2. If Arc is killed, Chaos is pretty much guaranteed dead. If TF is killed, we still have to debate between Chaos and Arc. Chaos has potential to live another day. TF dies.
3)
Cs As Tt
Not possible in any reasonable world.
4)
Cs At Ts
Arc dies.
5)
Cs As Ts
Also not possible.
6)
Ct As Tt
Arc lives to day 2. If Chaos is killed, Arc is probably dead. If TF is killed, we still have to debate between Chaos and Arc. Arc has potential to live another day. TF dies.
7)
Ct As Ts
Chaos dies.
8)
Ct At Ts
One of Chaos/Arc live to day 2. Probably Arc. The one who isn't dead is a good lynch candidate. This... would be very good for TF.
TF dies in 2) and 6). Chaos dies in 7). Arc dies in 4). 1) and 8) don't help us resolve anything but I think they are unlikely. 3) and 5) are nearly completely impossible.
So of 4 reasonable possibilities TF dies in 2. Which is why I said he's probably dead.
This math is also why I think it's correct to lynch one of Chaos or Arc today. Not doing so allows 1) 2) and 6) where TF is killed and we end up lynching Chaos or Arc tomorrow, allowing scum 2 PRs. If we lynch Chaos or Arc today we go into tomorrow up information compared to if we lynch someone else. This is only a bad strategy if 1) or 8) are the case.
If this is objectionable I think we really should lynch Drone.
This also assumes reds don't let TF remain due to his tunnel vision and kinda disruptive gameplay. and that they look like the type to hit more greens than reds.. due to their confirm bias.
Confirmation bias is being unable to see the possibility that this person is town because you are so certain of the scum case. Which normally wouldn't matter but you have a gun. You are not voting them, you are planning to shoot them.
In post 2179, MortFeld wrote:Confirmation bias is being unable to see the possibility that this person is town because you are so certain of the scum case. Which normally wouldn't matter but you have a gun. You are not voting them, you are planning to shoot them.
Pretty sure a while back I asked (at least I thought I did) somebody to explain town motivation for not 1 but 2 players (same slot) intentionally lying about me and I have yet to see anyone explain that. Can you?
Here's the chance, the only chance to get me to listen.
In post 2179, MortFeld wrote:Confirmation bias is being unable to see the possibility that this person is town because you are so certain of the scum case. Which normally wouldn't matter but you have a gun. You are not voting them, you are planning to shoot them.
Pretty sure a while back I asked (at least I thought I did) somebody to explain town motivation for not 1 but 2 players (same slot) intentionally lying about me and I have yet to see anyone explain that. Can you?
Here's the chance, the only chance to get me to listen.
lmao, no one is gonna bother explaining why X or Y said stuff if they aren't person X or Y
That's not what I'm asking for. People don't think the slot is scum. I want to know how a person who does these scummy things can be town when logic and common sense say that town shouldn't have to do these things.
town!Wobbu is new and not good at the game and either thought you were scum and tried to manufacture a case using his limited ability, was incapable of reading the game and so genuinely misread, or sheeped sentiments from others and morphed them into statements that are factually inaccurate but accordant with some people's general feelings.
I think the latter is most likely if Wobbu was town. It is completely reasonable that a new player confuse "many people think this person is toxic and should be removed from the game" with "this person is aligned with scum." Similarly, "this person has tunneled too far into a pointless topic" with "this person doesn't justify their reads" etc.
I'm not willing to discuss Copper here. You have a loose definition of 'lie' which encompasses things I do not think are scum tells.
Pedit: I'm going to try, rb, because I think his level of certainty is not reasonable and, were it held by a rational person, would be capable of being abated.
I thought Wobbu was scummy but I don't think rb has been terrible. I also think the scum case against Wobbu is equivalent in character to that against TB, so I don't see why you're not planning on shooting Arc.
In post 2178, TwoFace wrote:Y'all really need to understand the definition of confirmation bias. You can't discredit my scum hunting as confirmation bias.
Everyone started with a clean slate
I notice a player do scummy things
Player lies/misreps
Oh this player could be scum.
Vote this player
That's not confirmation bias.
im pretty certain your gonna shoot one of these 3 people
HS
Me
RB
All of which I believe are town... which is a thing and if I was red and the others are green like I expect I'd leave you up. as from a red perspective thats just 1 more NK for them.
I dunno.. Who ever the red team is there good.. I have 5 town reads other than myself so.. I think the red pool is one of these people. I think Some people are more likely than others (due to PR claims) but im pretty sure its within this pool.
oh and especially when the entirety of your scumread is based on some meaningless copper interaction and has nothing to do with me, and you're so convinced of your rightness that you'll shoot one of the best town players in the game
not to mention you're not even providing reads or trying to sort other slots. so bad
can someone go back and check a thing for me? was it HS who interpreted TF as being vig and announced it, or did TF himself drop a vig claim? this is important
In post 2190, rb wrote:not to mention you're not even providing reads or trying to sort other slots. so bad
can someone go back and check a thing for me? was it HS who interpreted TF as being vig and announced it, or did TF himself drop a vig claim? this is important
It's day 1 and I have my scum reads. I've also have alternative reads in case I'm wrong so that right there isn't true aka a lie/misrep
I dropped the "take one of them out" and based off that picked up I was vig.
In post 2190, rb wrote:
can someone go back and check a thing for me? was it HS who interpreted TF as being vig and announced it, or did TF himself drop a vig claim? this is important
This is the original post TF made.
In post 647, TwoFace wrote:yeah scum want me gone today so good idea to lynch me before I can take one of them out
Then HS asked if he was claiming vig like 3 times. TF responds with
In post 2190, rb wrote:not to mention you're not even providing reads or trying to sort other slots. so bad
can someone go back and check a thing for me? was it HS who interpreted TF as being vig and announced it, or did TF himself drop a vig claim? this is important
It's day 1 and I have my scum reads. I've also have alternative reads in case I'm wrong so that right there isn't true aka a lie/misrep
I dropped the "take one of them out" and based off that picked up I was vig.
you need to start understanding that if you have other reads that you're willing to push and you don't actually express them, it's not a misrep for someone to point that out. just because in some deep, dark corner of your mind you had a thought of lynching someone not named rb or HS, doesn't make it a misrep if you never actually express that
In post 2190, rb wrote:
can someone go back and check a thing for me? was it HS who interpreted TF as being vig and announced it, or did TF himself drop a vig claim? this is important
This is the original post TF made.
In post 647, TwoFace wrote:yeah scum want me gone today so good idea to lynch me before I can take one of them out
Then HS asked if he was claiming vig like 3 times. TF responds with
So in answer to your question, it's nebulous. I'd pretty much call what TF said in 647 a vig soft claim.
yeah i can't find anything either now that i'm on PC again, i'm actually really skeptical and don't like the way HS handled the soft-claim. i'm sure other players would outright ask if he's vig too, it's not scummy it's just a playstyle thing - some people just can't have grey areas and like to have people hardclaim and not have ambiguous areas and some people don't like to hardclaim at all. i honestly think that if he picked up on him maybe being vig and saw how he softclaimed, he should have just unvoted and filed it away as a mental note - but not everyone plays like me so whatever
the reason i ask is because i wonder if TF is just scum taking advantage of this situation where he dropped a softclaim and it was interpreted favourably. i can't be bothered lynching but i really think there's gonna be a scum roleblocker or something in this setup based on what ppl are claiming here (unless it's all fucking lies, lol) - but i guess they can't stop vig+cop+JK all at once, someone's gonna get an action off and they'll let TF get his action off if he's vig because there's basically zero chance of him hitting scum rn lol
im so paranoid about Mort scum rn and if he's scum i'm nominating for a scummy because he's literally done not a single scummy thing in this entire game, but i'm not willing to go down the 'too town to be town' route yet
mort can u like naked vote some obvtown slot and say some rly stupid anti-town shit so i can feel better about ur slot being human and not some supergod scum player? thanks
