Micro 661 | Scumteam UnPick - Pressure Done

[Jaack]

Final Chart (Removed the word pick to appease tenshii

	ZZZX	Dunhallym	ProHawk	Tenshii	Secret Agent Jin	Gamma Emerald	ArcAngel9	Jaack
ZZZX	X		Gamma/ArcAngel	Dunhallym	ProHawk	Tenshii
Dunhallym		X		Jaack				Tenshii
ProHawk	Gamma/ArcAngel		X			Jaack		Jin
Tenshii	Dunhallym	Jaack		X			ProHawk/ZZZX	Gamma
Secret Agent Jin	ProHawk				X	ArcAngel/Dunhallym
Gamma Emerald	Tenshii		Jaack		ArcAngel/Dunhallym	X	Jin	ZZZX
ArcAngel9				ProHawk/ZZZX		Jin	X
Jaack		Tenshii	Jin	Gamma		ZZZX		X

And for further reference, here's the total scumteams possible for each player:
ZZZX=3
Dunhallym=5
ProHawk=4
Tenshii=3
Secret Agent Jin=5
Gamma Emerald=2
ArcAngel9=5
Jaack=3

There are 15 total possible scumteams.

[Tenshii]

I'm not going to go into much more until tenshii reveals his picks, but I have a few ideas.

Hi.

Final Chart (Removed the word pick to appease tenshii

Ayy.

[Gamma Emerald]

Final Chart (Removed the word pick to appease tenshii

	ZZZX	Dunhallym	ProHawk	Tenshii	Secret Agent Jin	Gamma Emerald	ArcAngel9	Jaack
ZZZX	X		Gamma/ArcAngel	Dunhallym	ProHawk	Tenshii
Dunhallym		X		Jaack				Tenshii
ProHawk	Gamma/ArcAngel		X			Jaack		Jin
Tenshii	Dunhallym	Jaack		X			ProHawk/ZZZX	Gamma
Secret Agent Jin	ProHawk				X	ArcAngel/Dunhallym
Gamma Emerald	Tenshii		Jaack		ArcAngel/Dunhallym	X	Jin	ZZZX
ArcAngel9				ProHawk/ZZZX		Jin	X
Jaack		Tenshii	Jin	Gamma		ZZZX		X

And for further reference, here's the total scumteams possible for each player:
ZZZX=3
Dunhallym=5
ProHawk=4
Tenshii=3
Secret Agent Jin=5
Gamma Emerald=2
ArcAngel9=5
Jaack=3

There are 15 total possible scumteams.

I'm having trouble viewing the chart.
Can you make it take up less horizontal spaces?
Maybe make a line break where picks repeat.

[Jaack]

(Oh cool accident page top for good info)

As for analysis of our chart, I don't see any lynch that's just too valuable to pass up as nothing outright confirms town. It is cool that we only had three repeated picks, but the distribution is even enough that I don't see an easy path to a win, but just to check...

We need to catch at least one scum in the first three lynches.

If we were to use those three lynches on Dunhallym, Jin, and ArcAngel, that would cover all possible scumteams except Jaack/ZZZX, ProHawk/Tenshii, and Gamma/Tenshii. That's pretty good odds of getting, but just lynching one scum among them isn't going to win. If we were to rigidly lynch from those three ignoring flips altogether, town would win By D3 20% of the time, lose 20% of the time, and go to 3p lylo 60% of the time. Of course we probably wouldn't be rigid (if one of the first two we lynch flips scum our chances would be significantly better) but the odds aren't super in our favor.

I do think it's in our best interest to lynch the scummiest from {Dunhallym, Jin, ArcAngel} D1 and re-evaluate after a flip. I don't think we have enough info right now to force a win.

I don't really have a strong feeling on any of them yet so I don't have a preference at this time, but I will be focusing on those three players D1.

I'll try and clean up the chart to make it more small-screen friendly.

[Jaack]

Smaller Chart

	ZZZX	Dunhallym	ProHawk	Tenshii	Jin	Gamma	ArcAngel9	Jaack
ZZZX	X		O	O	O	O
Dunhallym		X		O				O
ProHawk	O		X			O		O
Tenshii	O	O		X			O	O
Jin	O				X	O
Gamma	O		O		O	X	O	O
ArcAngel9				O		O	X
Jaack		O	O	O		O		X

I left out the names of the pickers for now, but the O's mark impossible teams.

[Secret Agent Jin]

I need Jaack to be in all my games from now on. Anyways, say those three people (myself included) are lynched, that leaves three groups which have your name in one of them. IF you are scum then you are doing a good job of playing it out in public but i am convinced that you arent and that to me leaves only two groups. Also, from my PoV it is easy to check off my name across the board which A) Still leaves the same amount of possibilities but i dont die and B) Saves a day lynch which we can use on someone else. I understand that it isn't going to happen as it doesnt help anything if my alignment is assumed and not public knowledge but it stops a mislynch. As far as i know there could be a scum within the other two proposed lynches but if i am lynched first then we start off with a mislynch D1.

[ArcAngel9]

Final Chart (Removed the word pick to appease tenshii

	ZZZX	Dunhallym	ProHawk	Tenshii	Secret Agent Jin	Gamma Emerald	ArcAngel9	Jaack
ZZZX	X		Gamma/ArcAngel	Dunhallym	ProHawk	Tenshii
Dunhallym		X		Jaack				Tenshii
ProHawk	Gamma/ArcAngel		X			Jaack		Jin
Tenshii	Dunhallym	Jaack		X			ProHawk/ZZZX	Gamma
Secret Agent Jin	ProHawk				X	ArcAngel/Dunhallym
Gamma Emerald	Tenshii		Jaack		ArcAngel/Dunhallym	X	Jin	ZZZX
ArcAngel9				ProHawk/ZZZX		Jin	X
Jaack		Tenshii	Jin	Gamma		ZZZX		X

And for further reference, here's the total scumteams possible for each player:
ZZZX=3
Dunhallym=5
ProHawk=4
Tenshii=3
Secret Agent Jin=5
Gamma Emerald=2
ArcAngel9=5
Jaack=3

There are 15 total possible scumteams.

this is driving me crazy. Can anyone explain this in no-mans language?

[Jaack]

The chart in 79 cover's the same stuff but it's a little more concise so I'll reference that for explanation:

	ZZZX	Dunhallym	ProHawk	Tenshii	Jin	Gamma	ArcAngel9	Jaack
ZZZX	X		O	O	O	O
Dunhallym		X		O				O
ProHawk	O		X			O		O
Tenshii	O	O		X			O	O
Jin	O				X	O
Gamma	O		O		O	X	O	O
ArcAngel9				O		O	X
Jaack		O	O	O		O		X

The

O

's mark impossible teams. For example, I underlined one of them. Since it's in ProHawk's column and ZZZX's row, that means the scumteam of ProHawk+ZZZX is impossible.

The blank spots are possible scumteams. The spot beneath the underlined

O

is blank, meaning the scumteam of ProHawk+Dunhallym is possible based on our picks.

The X's simply mark where a single player makes up both the column and the row, so they can safely be ignored.

Note that everything is repeated once in the chart. All the information exists on either side of the diagonal of X's. I can try and clean it up for a second to get rid of that...

	ZZZX
Dunhallym		Dunhallym
ProHawk	O		ProHawk
Tenshii	O	O		Tenshii
Jin	O				Jin
Gamma	O		O		O	Gamma
ArcAngel9				O		O	ArcAngel
Jaack		O	O	O		O

It's not exceedinly pretty, but all vital information is there.

If you're still confused, here is the list of possible scumteams based on our unpicks:
ZZZX+Dunhallym
ZZZX+ArcAngel9
ZZZX+Jaack
Dunhallym+ProHawk
Dunhallym+Secret Agent Jin
Dunhallym+Gamma Emerald
Dunhallym+ArcAngel9
ProHawk+Tenshii
ProHawk+Secret Agent Jin
ProHawk+ArcAngel9
Tenshii+Secret Agent Jin
Tenshii+Gamma Emerald
Secret Agent Jin+ArcAngel9
Secret Agent Jin+Jaack
ArcAngel9+Jaack

[Dunhallym]

Didn't you choose Scumteam Unpick. You got into the game without understanding rules? Are you serious ?

[Dunhallym]

That was directed to Arc.
More seriously can you answer my questions.
I'll address the rest when I have time.

[Tenshii]

IF you are scum then you are doing a good job of playing it out in public but i am convinced that you arent and that to me leaves only two groups.

Why?

[Secret Agent Jin]

IF you are scum then you are doing a good job of playing it out in public but i am convinced that you arent and that to me leaves only two groups.

Why?

Why am i convinced he is town? I am basing that off of myself. If i was scum i wouldnt put myself out in public by making a chart and actively calculating the possible scumteams, i would let someone else make the chart and put themselves out there. If he is scum then he is doing an oscar worthy portrayal of a town member.

[Dunhallym]

@ProHawk

I forgot the question I had for you yesterday night.
You said you suspected me because I wanted to postpone the claims. Yet you didn't say anything about Tenshii who gave the same thought. Why?

[Dunhallym]

@Jin
Since you've played with Arc before what do you think of her confusion?

[Secret Agent Jin]

@Jin
Since you've played with Arc before what do you think of her confusion?

I think that it was genuine, i was also a bit confused on the subject too. I will say that i think it has been explained thoroughly and i think has enough information to clear the confusion. One think peaked my interest though. She said "why would you join a game you dont understand the rules of" which was to me about a different subject but it still applies to her situation.

[Dunhallym]

(Oh cool accident page top for good info)

As for analysis of our chart, I don't see any lynch that's just too valuable to pass up as nothing outright confirms town. It is cool that we only had three repeated picks, but the distribution is even enough that I don't see an easy path to a win, but just to check...

We need to catch at least one scum in the first three lynches.

If we were to use those three lynches on Dunhallym, Jin, and ArcAngel, that would cover all possible scumteams except Jaack/ZZZX, ProHawk/Tenshii, and Gamma/Tenshii. That's pretty good odds of getting, but just lynching one scum among them isn't going to win. If we were to rigidly lynch from those three ignoring flips altogether, town would win By D3 20% of the time, lose 20% of the time, and go to 3p lylo 60% of the time. Of course we probably wouldn't be rigid (if one of the first two we lynch flips scum our chances would be significantly better) but the odds aren't super in our favor.

I do think it's in our best interest to lynch the scummiest from {Dunhallym, Jin, ArcAngel} D1 and re-evaluate after a flip. I don't think we have enough info right now to force a win.

I don't really have a strong feeling on any of them yet so I don't have a preference at this time, but I will be focusing on those three players D1.

I'll try and clean up the chart to make it more small-screen friendly.

This is precisely the reason why I wanted discussion before naming the picks. Not because I'm in the most likely pool, as I had no way to know how it would go, but because I think that having a plan from the start of day 1 is bad for town, unless it's tightproof. As it is your analysis is correct but it also somewhat kills discussion. Discussion that is crucial to catch scum. And, assuming that one of Jin/Arc is scum (and they are not partners), I think it makes it easier for their partner to cover their tracks. Not to mention that from my POV, there is a 30% chance that neither is scum, and by following the plan (TM) we are giving them a free pass. Because one thing you forgot in your analysis is that each of us has additional information that allows to eliminate some scum teams.

My vision of the game is somewhat different from yours. I don't see it as playing by numbers, I see it as playing a regular mafia game where the additional information we have replaces PR we don't have and can help make choice, but doesn't drive the game.
So even if we end up following your plan in the end (and be assured I'll fight teeth and claws if you try to get me lynched) we need to play a game, which we have not yet started to do. Or at least which most players here have not started to do.

[ArcAngel9]

@Jin
Since you've played with Arc before what do you think of her confusion?

That was directed to Arc.
More seriously can you answer my questions.
I'll address the rest when I have time.

Are you serious? How am I suppose to know if Jin was being sarcastic or serious. I hope you know that when it comes to reading, people interpret differently? And I genuinely thought Jin didn't know about the rules.

And for this you think Jin & I are scum? this looks like you're building a case over nothing.

[Jaack]

You want discussion? Okay. Who or what do you want to talk about?

I think I'm going to start here:
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Secret Agent Jin

Both ArcAngel and Jin had less than stellar RVS votes, but I didn't really like how Jin walked his back after being called out on it.

@Dunhallym - I'm not really interested in getting into a more theory oriented discussion at this point (I agree that there are a lot of players not doing much) but I will respond to a few things.

First, I did not forget about how each of us knows we're clear. It's just not a fact that's particularly useful to discussion, particularly at this point, where no one's knowledge of their townness clears anyone else. Like I know personally that there is at least one scum among {Tenshii, Dunhallym, ArcAngel, Jin} but that's too vague to be useful even to me, let alone the other players.

And secondly, I am not fully committed to any plan beyond D1. There's no way to force a win with our allotted amount mislynches yet, but I do think that focusing our efforts on the most likely scum players is a productive use of time D1. D1 scum lynch rates are not significantly different from random selection and limiting the pool to those most likely to be scum based on game mechanics seems like a good idea to me.

[Secret Agent Jin]

Both ArcAngel and Jin had less than stellar RVS votes, but I didn't really like how Jin walked his back after being called out on it.

You are aware that A) My RVS vote was on myself and still is and B) I didnt walk anything back and i wasnt called out on anything. Jaacks whole post is weirdly defensive, or just plain weird.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Jaack

[Jaack]

Calling your self vote a joke in 12 looks like you're walking back to me.

And the fact that you kept your self vote doesn't do you any favors.

[Dunhallym]

@Jin
Since you've played with Arc before what do you think of her confusion?

That was directed to Arc.
More seriously can you answer my questions.
I'll address the rest when I have time.

Are you serious? How am I suppose to know if Jin was being sarcastic or serious. I hope you know that when it comes to reading, people interpret differently? And I genuinely thought Jin didn't know about the rules.

And for this you think Jin & I are scum? this looks like you're building a case over nothing.

You still do not answer my questions/ see here.
Your reaction is interesting. Can you point me where I've built a case on you and Jin being evil based on your early interaction? Would love to see it.
I simply redirected at you your own comment to Jin because from your questions it seems like you are the one who signed up for this game without thinking about its rules.
Now, I don't like the way you throw a half assed accusation my way but don't follow up on it with a vote so VOTE: Arcangel

You want discussion? Okay. Who or what do you want to talk about?

I think I'm going to start here:
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Secret Agent Jin

Both ArcAngel and Jin had less than stellar RVS votes, but I didn't really like how Jin walked his back after being called out on it.

@Dunhallym - I'm not really interested in getting into a more theory oriented discussion at this point (I agree that there are a lot of players not doing much) but I will respond to a few things.

First, I did not forget about how each of us knows we're clear. It's just not a fact that's particularly useful to discussion, particularly at this point, where no one's knowledge of their townness clears anyone else. Like I know personally that there is at least one scum among {Tenshii, Dunhallym, ArcAngel, Jin} but that's too vague to be useful even to me, let alone the other players.

And secondly, I am not fully committed to any plan beyond D1. There's no way to force a win with our allotted amount mislynches yet, but I do think that focusing our efforts on the most likely scum players is a productive use of time D1. D1 scum lynch rates are not significantly different from random selection and limiting the pool to those most likely to be scum based on game mechanics seems like a good idea to me.

Fine. I can see your POV and I agree that a theory discussion wouldn't bring much at this point.
As for discussion, I've tried to stimulate it some with my questions: apart from that I don't have a precise idea yet. I liked the way Prohawk engaged me early on, but I would like to see more from him. I don't like that Tenshii was also of the mind to scumhunt first but has not done much thus far. There are also things I dislike about Jin (I feel that he changed tone between the start of the game and now), Arcangel (see above) and Gamma (but his only possible partner from my POV is Tenshii). ZZZX and you have gained town points at the moment.
And on this, bed time for me.

[Secret Agent Jin]

Calling your self vote a joke in 12 looks like you're walking back to me.

And the fact that you kept your self vote doesn't do you any favors.

What else would it be if not a joke? Was the other votes against the host not jokes? I kept my self vote because it wasnt hurting anything and at the time i didnt have a better place to put the vote.

[ZZZX]

I would say that going back to that post @Jaack kind of sounds... too forced? I wouldn't say I loved his post explaining it since, well it didn't need explaining but pushing him now for it just seems a bit off.

Also i think if we can aim our lynches to minimise the unpicks it might be interestingly good. need to do some maths for it

[ZZZX]

For now lets focus on scum hunting. if in any case we dont agree on a lynch we will use the chart to decide the best target

everyone good with that?

[Tenshii]

And for this you think Jin & I are scum? this looks like you're building a case over nothing.

I don't see how you got this though.

VOTE: ArcAngel9

I think the chart is just a distraction from actual scumhunting and brings a false sense of progression of the game. Like I still think we're in an RVS-esque state with not alot of information, especially considering that a large majority of the game so far was setup/strategy discussion.