SU 2 - REASONABLY RATIONAL & RANDOMIDGET ALLIANCE

[Randomnamechange]

It was destined.

[Randomnamechange]

Ascetism wouldn't rb kills. I think Farside is fucking with us at this point. They are probs third party that doesn't win with town.

[Randomnamechange]

Okay so if that's the case, then creature is scum and was shooting at farside?

I got a really solid town feel out of Farside when she explained her actions to me in alliance PT yesterday; however, Cerb has been telling me repeatedly that she's almost certainly 3P and that I should be pushing to lynch her because of the role he had in SaGa Frontier.

Does MoI share your opinion on Farside?

I'm not sure.

A couple things I'm pretty sure you and MoI don't know yet so you can pass them on to MoI:

Almost50 has the ability to empower a finale only ability if the stress is high enough. That's why we could have hammered Farside on day 3 and she could not have gotten out of it. It's a passive bonus given to anyone he allies with while they are allied.

Shiro has a couple of interesting things. He can make any alliance PT he wants stay open as a day and night talk allowed PT forever. He can ALSO copy someone's role. The original game plan Cerb and I had was to use our role that Titus stole (a conditional roleblock) by having Shiro copy it and keep that a secret. Meanwhile we would announce it and force the top scumspects to ally with us and then force them to choose to ally elsewhere (the condition is they have to "spurn" us and the flavor was, paraphrased, "You're only my friend when it's convenient") and then we would block them. While we were doing that publicly, Shiro would be doing it privately and Titus would be directing alliances in order to try and catch scum night killer. Titus was paranoid of us and wanted to know for sure that we had told her the truth about our role and not having an alliance benefit/ability and that's why she stole our role, and that was when she finally realized we're town and started game planning with us.

This is from memory as my notes file is inaccessible to me since my computer got fried and I'm using this old ass laptop. Cerb can fill in anything I'm forgetting.

Do you guys want a dump of Titus' thoughts and plans?

yes please if you think they are rellevant. we knew about shiro's ability, but not the plan. Almost's is interesting.

Need your input on something random, and I need to clarify something.

A50 ENABLES finale only abilities for his allies at +2 stress. He also EMPOWERS all abilities used by his allies on finales(I assume it's the same sort of phrasing as the "enhanced priority" we've seen previously).

Shiro's copying power isn't their ROLE, it's copying their alliance benefits. I'm not certain if this means he can use limited shot powers, OR if he just gains the benefit of whatever passive they get. I asked him before and he didn't answer in a sufficiently informative fashion.

Anyways, point is....we're about to come up on the Season Finale. Those two powers can, if they ally with the right person, allow for some very powerful effects or us gaining a lot of knowledge, but I'm not sure who the optimal person to suggest as a third is. I guess I sorta need to know the details of how his power functions. Anyways, pass that on, think about it, and I'll ask Shiro for more clarification, I'll use some currently existing flips so he can point to exactly what part of a role he would copy.

Alright I think that I understand this. It needs to be someone we are confident on being town.

[Randomnamechange]

Creature should be the lynch today anyway. Farside situation has changed

[Randomnamechange]

Farside needs to come clean with the game and tell us what we need to do to give her our win so she doesn't do something that sets off a chain reaction resulting in us losing like Grapes deciding to kill Fuzzy after we explained why fuzzy was unassailable town in SU1. At this point, it will take probably more than that but I could see fuzzy making a bad vig shot in combination with Farside doing something for her 3P wincon in combination fucking us.

I have no idea why everyone's ignoring the fact that she has been spewing bullshit all game. Put her feet to the fire, get the truth, then help her GTFO in the least harmful way possible. She said her points were really high, so if she will just tell the fucking truth, she can ally with mastin just to break it (since they can't talk anyway) for more points and hopefully she can get the fuck out before we get to the point where her doing so gives scum the win.

I'm seriously getting really edgy about her.

I've got an idea bit I need to check something w/ mod

[Randomnamechange]

We need to decide what to do about farside.
btw I have a points based ability which I haven't been using yet that gives people buffs.

[Randomnamechange]

I want to give you the disaster scenario I'm concerned about, so you can confirm in thread that it makes sense (in case anyone somehow doubts us at this point) and also pass it on to MoI, because I believe we have to play assuming this is the scenario and hope that it's not.

So the scenario we're concerned about is that there might be 3 scum left. This isn't really a stretch because of the following: the game had mod-confirmed Mastin on day one via Yume, who was Steven. That's two slots right away that scum could never get lynched. Then there was Titus who was IC. Up to three slots. Then kraska could have popped IC in a 3-man LYLO which was a contingent 4th. There was also the ability someone had to copy another person's role, and for balancing purposes it had to be considered that Titus would be copied for another IC. That puts us to a hard 4, 5th contingent. Then add in the Crystal Gem masonry which started at 4 and bumped up to 5 and we have 9 slots that for sure could never be mislynched, with a 10th contingent.

Now if we assume 6 groupscum + traitor then the scum team had to get six mislynches and five or six night kills. They got some extra from events, but we stopped as many of their night kills as they got extra kills, so it's the same situation. So they had to be able to get six mislynches out of a pool of only 8-10 slots. If the scum team is one smaller, it's an extra mislynch out of a pool if 9-11 slots. I think that amount of unlynchable town/CGs should make us err on the side of caution.

So the disaster scenario would be this:

1.) Farside exits the game
2.) Fuzzy shoots a town tonight
3.) Scum's kill goes through tonight
4.) Creature is somehow town (I know this is really unlikely, but this is the kind of thing Cerb and I think of: what is the worst possible thing that could happen and how can we mitigate that)

If that all happened, we would go into tomorrow with 7 alive (Farside, Creature, Fuzzy's kill and Scum's kill all gone) and 3 would be scum. That's LYLO.

Is this why you don't want fuzzy shooting?

[Randomnamechange]

I think due to flavour reasons there are two scum, but I think there could be another leftover (maybe farside)
but your scenario is def possible
especially as one scum was weaker (a traitor)

[Randomnamechange]

Okay so the way I see it at the moment, if the game doesn't end with Creature's death, then the most likely remaining candidates are in {Shiro, Shadow} with less likely but possible options in {Grapes, Farside}. I still think Farside is just self aligned and wins independently, but she said she gets removed from the game upon the win, and since we're on odd numbers that makes MYLO arrive the day before we would be expecting LYLO (regardless of how many scum we posit), so I wouldn't say she's precisely town compatible. I am viewing her as a very slight balance shift in favor of scum right now, and that happening at the wrong time could suck ... a lot.

So the groupings I proposed let you and MoI talk in your separate PT and you both have the chance to talk to the remaining suspect pool. Ideally the game just ends with Creature lynch but I'm not taking anything for granted so I'm trying to set up a way for you and MoI to be able to independently evaluate the suspect pool.

Cerberus and I have a plan in mind for Fuzzy. How he reacts should tell us a lot. The thing is that Almost50 empowers his allies abilities on finales. This means that if Fuzzy really does have a Vig shot, it can't fail. So we'll have a chance to evaluate Fuzzy and reaction test him plus confirm his shot because it will be empowered. We can also attempt to leash that shot to a target that Mastin and you and MoI agree upon. If you guys want us to push that (leashing the shot), just have MoI say so when the day starts and we'll put the leashing into our reaction test for Fuzzy.

I don't want to tell the game thread about the empowered ability thing though, so if you could confirm that we have the reasons to adjust the alliance, that would be helpful. Plus you can infodump to MoI when the night starts.

yeah i can infodump

[Randomnamechange]

Yeah alright I get your reasoning. I'm up for it then

[Randomnamechange]

By the way ... for your info dump to MoI tonight: Shadow almost cannot possibly be lynched today. That's the benefit of allying with Mastin: the lynch threshold becomes higher and given that he's not likely to self vote ... pretty sure it's a fool's errand to go after him. I see no reason to make that obvious though.

Sorry can you clarify the first part?

[Randomnamechange]

Random, please make sure you and MoI do a thorough infodump to one another tonight. Ask MoI to complete those ISOs he wanted to analyze etc. The two of you, along with mastin, are the obvious scum kills, depending on whether they 1) believe what MoI said about you all leaving the game when humans are all gone, and 2) whether it would cost them more or less kills for a victory that way than through a traditional fashion. You guys have the benefit of being able to make sure your thoughts don't get lost in death though, so just..make sure you've discussed everything thoroughly by the end of tonight.

I think that the kill will probs be mastin or you (if they think that mastin will be protected)
also you are doing a lot of gamesolving which will make you a target

[Randomnamechange]

Infodump stuff for MoI:
use alliance PTs to sort people rather than to plan
what should I say about the fuzzy plan?
explain the disaster scenario
shadow should be high priority kill

[Randomnamechange]

oh btw could you full claim please?

also what are the proposed alliances for tomorrow?